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Brit's Want Their Country Back Inside Paris Dangerous ANTIFA Riots Status: Not Logged In; Sign In politics and politicians See other politics and politicians Articles Title: FiveThirtyEight gives Trump 1-in-3 chance Source: FiveThirtyEight URL Source: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus Published: Jul 13, 2016 Author: FiveThirtyEight Post Date: 2016-07-13 17:08:23 by ConservingFreedom Keywords: None Views: 4487 Comments: 22 Electoral votes Hillary Clinton 303.4 Donald Trump 234.4 Gary Johnson 0.2 Popular vote Hillary Clinton 48.1% Donald Trump 44.8% Gary Johnson 5.8% Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 16. #3. To: ConservingFreedom (#0) (Edited) "In September, he (Nate Silver) told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that Trump had a roughly 5-percent chance of beating his GOP rivals. In November, he explained that Trump’s national following was about as negligible as the share of Americans who believe the Apollo moon landing was faked. On Twitter, he compared Trump to the band Nickelback, which he described as being “[d]isliked by most, super popular with a few.” misterwhite  posted on  2016-07-13   17:45:17 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #5. To: misterwhite (#3) "In September, he (Nate Silver) told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that Trump had a roughly 5-percent chance of beating his GOP rivals. In November, he explained that Trump’s national following was about as negligible as the share of Americans who believe the Apollo moon landing was faked. On Twitter, he compared Trump to the band Nickelback, which he described as being “[d]isliked by most, super popular with a few.” And on May 18 he wrote "How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump" - fivethirtyeight.com/featu...rewed-up-on-donald-trump/ ConservingFreedom  posted on  2016-07-13   17:52:27 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #9. To: ConservingFreedom (#5) "And on May 18 he wrote "How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump" When will he write, "How I Made Lame Excuses For My Emotion-Based Prediction In A Pathetic Attempt To Salvage My Credibility"? misterwhite  posted on  2016-07-13   20:39:26 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #11. To: misterwhite (#9) When will he write, "How I Made Lame Excuses For My Emotion-Based Prediction In A Pathetic Attempt To Salvage My Credibility"? In your book the following is a "lame excuse"? In mine it's a mea culpa. "we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence. Without a model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things." ConservingFreedom  posted on  2016-07-14   12:23:07 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #14. To: ConservingFreedom (#11) Had he said that at the time of his prediction, that would have been different. Saying it now sounds like a lame excuse. misterwhite  posted on  2016-07-14   12:31:32 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #15. To: misterwhite (#14) Had he said that at the time of his prediction, that would have been different. That makes less than no sense ... if he'd realized at the time of his prediction that he was playing a pundit rather than doing statistics, he wouldn't have made the prediction. Saying it now sounds like a lame excuse. You seem to be confusing "explanation" with "excuse." ConservingFreedom  posted on  2016-07-14   12:45:34 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #16. To: ConservingFreedom (#15) "That makes less than no sense ... if he'd realized at the time of his prediction that he was playing a pundit rather than doing statistics, he wouldn't have made the prediction." He admitted his prediction was not based on a model. Meaning he knew at the time that he was playing a pundit. I'm saying he should have admitted that at the time. "You seem to be confusing "explanation" with "excuse." No. It's a lame excuse. We would never have heard this "explanation" had he been proven right. misterwhite  posted on  2016-07-14   13:03:09 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   Replies to Comment # 16. #17. To: misterwhite (#16) It's a lame excuse. We would never have heard this "explanation" had he been proven right. These two sentences bear no logical relationship to each other - much less the second proving the first. ConservingFreedom  posted on  2016-07-14 16:02:46 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   End Trace Mode for Comment # 16. Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest

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