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Title: Cruz Again Bests Trump at Most Weekend Delegate Contests
Source: bloomberg.com
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a ... most-weekend-delegate-contests
Published: May 1, 2016
Author: John McCormick
Post Date: 2016-05-01 11:48:27 by buckeroo
Keywords: None
Views: 9103
Comments: 39

Even as his campaign struggles for survival, Senator Ted Cruz dominated weekend delegate selection contests that he and other Republicans hope could block Donald Trump from winning the party's nomination at their national convention.

From Virginia in the east to Arizona in the west, the Texan nearly ran the tables at state party conventions where delegates were picked to attend the July meeting in Cleveland

Trump has won the most state primaries, including a sweep of five northeastern states on April 26, and has gained over 10 million votes from primary and caucus voters so far, to Cruz's 6.9 million. Yet Cruz's campaign has repeatedly shown superior organization and understanding when it comes to the arcane delegate-selection process and his quest to secure people loyal to him at a possible contested convention.

"It is going to be a contested convention," Cruz said Sunday on ABC's "This Week" broadcast. "I believe at the convention, the highest total Trump gets, it will be the first ballot and that we are seeing the party unite behind our campaign."

Cruz's delegate wins could be merely symbolic, though, if Trump secures the 1,237 delegates needed win the party's presidential nomination. The real estate developer could still do that on June 7, when California, New Jersey and three other states hold the final set of Republican primaries, offering a total of 303 delegates.

There were also some signs this weekend that Trump's campaign is getting better at grass-roots organizing. He scored delegate victories in Massachusetts and held his own in Arkansas.

Arizona was a Cruz blowout, even though Trump won the state's March 22 primary with 47 percent of the vote to Cruz's 25 percent. A slate backing the Texan won virtually all of the 28 at-large delegate slots and roughly split the 27 selected by congressional district, according to the Associated Press.

The outcome prompted anger from Trump supporters, including former Arizona Governor Jan Brewer. "I got cheated," the AP quoted her as saying as the results became known.

The campaigns for Cruz and Ohio Governor John Kasich offered nearly identical slates of candidates and the combined votes helped lead to wins for the Texas senator.

State Treasurer Jeff DeWit, who chairs Trump's Arizona campaign, told reporters that a challenge to the delegate selection process is possible after the party rejected re-vote calls.

"The Trump campaign is very unhappy with the results," DeWit told the AP and others. "We don't feel that this was a fair process. The Trump button got checked more than any other, so why do we have so few delegates?"

Cruz's campaign pushed back by saying there was no malfeasance involved, and that the delegate victories were simply a matter of adding their supporters with those who don't want Trump.

In Virginia, Cruz supporters won 10 of 13 delegate slots selected at a state convention, the Washington Post reported.

Cruz finished a distant third in Virginia's March 1 primary behind Trump and Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who has since dropped out of the race. Cruz supporters dominated the party's convention on Saturday at James Madison University in Harrisonburg. The Texan was helped by Ken Cuccinelli, Virginia's former attorney general and a campaign aide on the delegate front nationally.

Delegates from Virginia, Arizona and many other states will be required to vote for Trump on the first ballot in Cleveland because he won their primaries and state party rules often require loyalty to the winner on the initial round.

It's mathematically impossible for Cruz or Kasich to win enough delegates for the nomination before the convention. Instead, the remaining Republican candidates, pared from an initial slate of 17, hope to prevent Trump from winning enough delegates for the nomination.

Tuesday's Indiana primary will be a critical test for stop-Trump forces. Even Cruz has acknowledged that a Trump win there could make it impossible to block the front-runner from winning the nomination. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll on Sunday showed Trump 15 points ahead of Cruz, a wider margin than other recent surveys compiled by RealClearPolitics.

In Massachusetts, at least 23 of the 27 delegates picked Saturday were supported by the Trump campaign, the Boston Globe reported. Trump easily won the state's March 1 primary.

At congressional district conventions in Arkansas, where Trump narrowly beat Cruz in the March 1 primary, the front-runner won half of the 12 delegates selected Saturday, according to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Five others supported Cruz.

After Trump's dominant wins this week he has 996 delegates, according to an AP tally. Cruz has 565, followed by a distant Kasich at 153.


LQQks like the Cruz political camp has a different opinion about "mathematical possibilities" to take the GOP helm.

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#2. To: buckeroo (#0)

Looks like the Cruz camp is hellbent on doing to the GOP what Cruz did in the Senate: use procedural rules to seize attention and force everybody's hand.

That worked for him in the Senate for awhile. But then it stopped working. Cruz forced the Senate to listen to him. They did. They remained unconvinced, and then when he kept trying to do the same thing procedurally, they overrode the procedures and moved on.

It's fine to play procedural games, when you're in the minority, to a certain point, to make your point. But once you've made your point, been heard and still not persuaded, to persist with it to try to literally force a minority position on a majority - that doesn't work. It doesn't work because the majority can play the same game, and simply change the rules or disregard the old rule - who will STOP them - to prevent the angry and vocal minority from effecting a hijack.

Cruz cannot take over the GOP from within and drive out the majority. The majority will change the rules and expel Cruz and his people first.

The handwriting is already on the wall. Once Trump wins Indiana all hope of stopping him will evaporate among all realistic people. Cruz can doggedly seek to take over the process from within, but he'll fail and he'll alienate the new President.

As things stand, were Cruz to leave now, Trump will have plenty to focus on. But if Cruz stays and tries to disrupt everything, Trump will add changing the party so this cannot happen again - same thing that the Senate did to Cruz, to stop him from periodically disrupting everything.

The problem with signing onto the Cruz kamikaze mission against Trump is that what is going to happen is that the people who do that, who lash their causes to stopping Trump, are the most outlying causes in the Republican camp. If they lash themselves to go after Trump, they will not stop him from getting the nomination, and they won't stop him from winning the White House - huge number of middle class blue collar workers will vote Trump for economic reasons, and Trump's success will reorient the Republican Party to be a nationalist, white working class party, leaving the Democrat party with blacks, Hispanics, Jews, feminists, gays, transgenders, and a bunch of other minoritarian interests that won't be able to hold.

The Republicans cannot do that NOW because it is skewed too far to the rich, and to minoritarian arch-conservative interests.

Those interests are coalescing around Cruz. The billionaires are not stupid enough to ride the Cruz train into destruction, so they're already bending the knee to Trump, just like they did to Ike when Ike refused to repudiate the New Deal. Half a loaf is better than none.

But the causes that rally around Cruz are, like Cruz, the most absolutely unyielding, uncompromising and off-putting in the party. They are the unappeasable purists. But they've lost control. They MUST compromise somewhat, with Trump, to have a seat at the table. If instead they sign on with Cruz to go full kamikaze on Trump - and then Trump wins anyway with the blue collar crossovers, what that will MEAN is that pleasing middle and working class Democrat crossovers is the way to victory, and Trump will change the Republican Party to appeal to that broad middle.

The Democrats will be left with the minorities and the sexual lunatics, and the Cruzites will be left with the most hardcore bitter enders, and they'll be out of the party and out of power, and lose their ability to shape anything.

For my part, I think it would be better to keep the right wing fringe in the party. As a tactical matter the rape and incest exceptions on abortion are, for me, an unhappy but necessary compromise. I would like to have the right there as the conscience of the party, so that once Roe is overturned by a Trump court, and the country gets used to restricting abortion, that the majority for dealing with those exceptions is built.

But truth is the moment is rapidly coming where those who sign onto the Cruz ship will end up shoved out of the party once Trump clinches the win against their resistance.

Vicomte13  posted on  2016-05-01   13:10:55 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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