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Title: 7 Enviro Predictions From Earth Day 1970 That Were Just Dead Wrong
Source:
The Daily Caller
URL Source: http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/22/7 ... 970-that-were-just-dead-wrong/
Published: Apr 22, 2016
Author: Andrew Follett
Post Date: 2016-04-22 18:04:22 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 1264
Comments: 11
Environmentalists truly believed and predicted during the first Earth Day in 1970 that the planet was doomed unless drastic actions were taken. Humanity never quite got around to that drastic action, but environmentalists still recall the first Earth Day fondly and hold many of the predictions in high regard. So this Earth Day, The Daily Caller News Foundation takes a look at predictions made by environmentalists around the original Earth Day in 1970 to see how they’ve held up. Have any of these dire predictions come true? No, but that hasn’t stopped environmentalists from worrying. p>From predicting the end of civilization to classic worries about peak oil, here are seven environmentalist predictions that were just flat out wrong. 1: “Civilization Will End Within 15 Or 30 Years” Harvard biologist Dr. George Wald warned shortly before the first Earth Day in 1970 that civilization would soon end “unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” Three years before his projection, Wald was awarded the Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine. Wald was a vocal opponent of the Vietnam War and the nuclear arms race. He even flew to Moscow at one point to advise the leader of the Soviet Union on environmental policy. Despite his assistance to a communist government, civilization still exists. The percentage of Americans who are concerned about environmental threats has fallen as civilization failed to end by environmental catastrophe. 2: “100-200 Million People Per Year Will Be Starving To Death During The Next Ten Years” Stanford professor Dr. Paul Ehrlich declared in April 1970 that mass starvation was imminent. His dire predictions failed to materialize as the number of people living in poverty has significantly declined and the amount of food per person has steadily increased, despite population growth. The world’s Gross Domestic Product per person has immeasurably grown despite increases in population. Ehrlich is largely responsible for this view, having co-published “The Population Bomb” with The Sierra Club in 1968. The book made a number of claims including that millions of humans would starve to death in the 1970s and 1980s, mass famines would sweep England leading to the country’s demise, and that ecological destruction would devastate the planet causing the collapse of civilization. 3: “Population Will Inevitably And Completely Outstrip Whatever Small Increases In Food Supplies We Make” Paul Ehrlich also made the above claim in 1970, shortly before an agricultural revolution that caused the world’s food supply to rapidly increase. Ehrlich has consistently failed to revise his predictions when confronted with the fact that they did not occur, stating in 2009 that “perhaps the most serious flaw in The Bomb was that it was much too optimistic about the future.” 4: “Demographers Agree Almost Unanimously … Thirty Years From Now, The Entire World … Will Be In Famine” Environmentalists in 1970 truly believed in a scientific consensus predicting global famine due to population growth in the developing world, especially in India. “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions,” Peter Gunter, a professor at North Texas State University, said in a 1970 issue of The Living Wilderness.”By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.” India, where the famines were supposed to begin, recently became one of the world’s largest exporters of agricultural products and food supply per person in the country has drastically increased in recent years. In fact, the number of people in every country listed by Gunter has risen dramatically since 1970. 5: “In A Decade, Urban Dwellers Will Have To Wear Gas Masks To Survive Air Pollution” Life magazine stated in January 1970 that scientist had “solid experimental and theoretical evidence” to believe that “in a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching Earth by one half.” Despite the prediction, air quality has been improving worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. Air pollution has also sharply declined in industrialized countries. Carbon dioxide (CO2), the gas environmentalists are worried about today, is odorless, invisible and harmless to humans in normal amounts. 6: “Childbearing [Will Be] A Punishable Crime Against Society, Unless The Parents Hold A Government License” David Brower, the first executive director of The Sierra Club made the above claim and went on to say that “[a]ll potential parents [should be] required to use contraceptive chemicals, the government issuing antidotes to citizens chosen for childbearing.” Brower was also essential in founding Friends of the Earth and the League Of Conservation Voters and much of the modern environmental movement. Brower believed that most environmental problems were ultimately attributable to new technology that allowed humans to pass natural limits on population size. He famously stated before his death in 2000 that “all technology should be assumed guilty until proven innocent” and repeatedly advocated for mandatory birth control. Today, the only major government to ever get close to his vision has been China, which ended its one-child policy last October. 7: “By The Year 2000 … There Won’t Be Any More Crude Oil” On Earth Day in 1970 ecologist Kenneth Watt famously predicted that the world would run out of oil saying, “You’ll drive up to the pump and say, ‘Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, ‘I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’” Numerous academics like Watt predicted that American oil production peaked in 1970 and would gradually decline, likely causing a global economic meltdown. However, the successful application of massive hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, caused American oil production to come roaring back and there is currently too much oil on the market. American oil and natural gas reserves are at their highest levels since 1972 and American oil production in 2014 was 80 percent higher than in 2008 thanks to fracking. Furthermore, the U.S. now controls the world’s largest untapped oil reserve, the Green River Formation in Colorado. This formation alone contains up to 3 trillion barrels of untapped oil shale, half of which may be recoverable. That’s five and a half times the proven reserves of Saudi Arabia. This single geologic formation could contain more oil than the rest of the world’s proven reserves combined. 
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#1. To: cranky (#0)
Yes I recall as a child they predicted wide spread famine and riots by 2,000. The world has changed and we still haven't got it together. There are famines in parts of the world and we are unwilling to stop them happening. Noone can say for certain when something will happen, this years el nino is a case in point, it has caused wide spread problems but here where we were expected to be in severe drought, it hasn't happened despite record temperatures. Although we have better estimates of mineral and food reserves we have yet to deal with population and rising population does menace the future for a number of reasons
Well, kinda. We are in a Famine for the Truth. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
It has ever been so
That would tell most people something, right there. But if reality can't shake your faith in climate science, nothing can. There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't
I remember them saying that by 2000 the whole US would be under about 20ft of ice, LOL. And I remember people believing it. Same way I am amazed at the number of people that today believe that in 5 years the whole planet will melt. Stupid is widespread & constant. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
Yeah, don't pay attention to that little guy behind the curtain. Even though he has been consistently wrong in his predictions he is still right because we need to give it more time. So we better listen to this chicken little while there is still time.......or else we are doomed as doomed can be. However there is one exception. Those of us that built bomb shelters in the 50s, 60s and 70s will be glad they did any day now. It's just a matter of time. Righty right, mate. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
The sky always falling, Climate Change, volcanos, earthquakes, wars pestilence, asteroids. But look it was all predicted long ago before science existed. The exact date wasn't predicted but we can be assured it is closer now than it was before. The stupid part is we humans are actually helping it happen. The human race has become a virus on the Earth multiplying at an unsustainable rate. Noone knows where the ceiling is, but there has to be one and anything that multiplies at an expotential rate eventually crashes. Soso you go stick you head in the sand because you don't want to hear it, but one day one of these predictions will be right on. I think climate science is about as close to the truth as the alchemists were. I think medical science is about as close to the truth as the witch doctors were, I think astronomers sre about as close to the truth as astrologers were, but the truth is hiding in there somewhere and everynow and then it emerges
This is the same inane, unsupportable by the facts, mindless, knee jerk argument that the Peak Production chicken littles have been trying to foist on humanity for 50 years (some for over 100 years). The "it has to happen sometime" argument has been historically shown to be wrong, wrong, wrong over and over and over again. Here are some more of the chicken little predictions that just never happened: "•In 1865, Stanley Jevons (one of the most recognized 19th century economists) predicted that England would run out of coal by 1900, and that England’s factories would grind to a standstill. •In 1885, the US Geological Survey announced that there was “little or no chance” of oil being discovered in California. •In 1891, it said the same thing about Kansas and Texas. (See Osterfeld, David. Prosperity Versus Planning : How Government Stifles Economic Growth. New York : Oxford University Press, 1992.) •In 1939 the US Department of the Interior said that American oil supplies would last only another 13 years. •1944 federal government review predicted that by now the US would have exhausted its reserves of 21 of 41 commodities it examined. Among them were tin, nickel, zinc, lead and manganese. •In 1949 the Secretary of the Interior announced that the end of US oil was in sight. Claim April 1970: “If present trends continue, the world will be … eleven degrees colder by the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age.” Kenneth E.F. Watt, in Earth Day, 1970. Data: According to NASA, global temperature has increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1970. Claim 1970: “In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.” Paul Ehrlich, speech during Earth Day, 1970. Claim 1972: “Artic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.” Christian Science Monitor, June 8, 1972. Data: Ice coverage has fallen, though as of last month, the Arctic Ocean had 3.82 million square miles of ice cover — an area larger than the continental United States — according to The National Snow and Ice Data Center. " Here is what actually happened: Do you know why all of those and these types of predictions are wrong? It is because nothing in the world continues on the same growth path for very long. Invariably small, often seemingly unrelated, changes in behavior happen, new doors are open, new technologies develop, societal preferences change, etc. etc. etc. I can go on and on and on and on showing how this BS is just that, BS. BTW, it was a shame that the Alaskan oil pipeline killed all of the caribou up there. BUt you mindless chcken "Soso you go stick you head in the sand because you don't want to hear it, but one day one of these predictions will be right on." Yeah, probably on the day little green monkeys fly out of you ass. I made a living for 50 years in the global energy business. I watched each and every one of the chicken little predictions of "it must happen sometime" proven to be comically wrong. I watched as billions if not hundreds of billions of dollars were wasted in reacting to these baseless predictions with nothing to show for the investment, except for the lining of pockets of the crony capitalist class of each political party. You, like all of the doomsdayer chicken littles, have let your ideology subordinate your intellect. I guess if I live long enough I will be hit by a meteor or perhaps my daughter will or my grandkids or great grandkids or great great great great great great great grandkids. It's bound to happen you know. The whole planet will go boom. So you best spend you time, energy and money figuring out how to get your chicken little ass off of the plant before you go the way of the dinosaurs. Oh wait, maybe man will find a way to avert the path of a killer meteor in the next 25-50 years from now. Never mind. It's bound to happen sometime. The Earth is no closer to running out of energy today as it was 100 years ago. The Earth's capacity to produce food is no closer to exhaustion than it was 100 years ago. The Earth is no longer to running out of places to live than it was 100 years ago. I told you once what the real problem is, i.e. the logistics of water supplies. The Earth is no closer to running out of consumable water that it was 100,000 or a million years ago. The issue is one of changing distribution and recycling patterns. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
Take heart, someone did get some things right a 100 years ago. "In 1900, an American civil engineer called John Elfreth Watkins made a number of predictions about what the world would be like in 2000. How did he do? >/I>" Follow the link and find out. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
don't call me a mindless chicken you idiot. I am entitled to an informed opinion formed after years of involvment with renewable projects. Look at the graph you provided, you have illustrated my point, look at the steepness of the curve, did your improvements in technology cause the steepness of the curve? No it is the consumption by traditional technologies, fueled by population growth coupled with emerging economies that causes the growth. I am not party to chicken little predictions but I can discern a trend. You think water is not a problem, this maybe because you live close to a reliable water supply, but this is a problem in other places where growth has to be restricted because of available water. the availability of arable land is finite and we are going to start farming arid lands and this takes a lot of water, otherwise we destroy rain forest as in Brazil and Indonesia, and this is a short term solution. I doubt you understand much beyond your own borders you are an apologist for the energy industry which is based on traditional technologies. Your predictions of available oil are based on extraction from some polluting sources like tar sands and drilling in places it is better not to go like the arctic. I don't need to get off the planet because I doubt I'll live long enough to see that meteor. You forgot to throw in that super-volcano you are sitting on in Yellowstone or the possibility of California sliding into the ocean that will certainly solve the problem at least in North America, Lots of dead ostrich coming up. Sorry but I won't join you worshiping the gods of technology, oil and coal or the words of long dead prophets of doom
You are a mindless idiot if this is what you really believe. In the real world in which we live by definition at the end of the day consumption = production (supply = demand). In the case of oil did the availability of supply create the demand or did demand create the supply? The answer is both, it is what balances the equation in the physical world. Just because you may have been involved in renewable projects for years doesn't mean squat with respect to your understanding of the global energy situation. Renewable energy projects tend to be very dependent on local market circumstances with respect to economic viability - in other words logistics, logistics, logistics. Your comments also reveal that you have very little knowledge of the global oil markets in general and the U.S. oil markets in particular. Also, your reference to the chart I posted reveals that your response is indeed a mindless knee jerk one. The scale and granularity of the chart doesn't reveal the fact that since the 1970s annual production of oil declined from the previous year about 6 or so times and for periods of 2-3 years in a row in a few of these declines. This made all of the mindless Peak Production idiots cheer - until consumption rose again to even higher historical levels only to "peak" again fall and the rise to even higher historical levels. And this happened during times in which there was an abundant supply available in the market. So energy genius, tell me why production (consumption) declines when there was an abundance of supply? HINT: Due to less demand. You mindless knee jerk chicken littles lack the knowledge, intellectual integrity or both to conduct a critical analysis for yourself. Don't blame me for your short coming and my ability and intellectual curiosity for doing that for myself. "You think water is not a problem, this maybe because you live close to a reliable water supply, but this is a problem in other places where growth has to be restricted because of available water." My God, this comment when I said twice that water IS a problem, if not THE problem? Wow, how revealing of your lack of understanding and your allowing your ideology subordinate your intellect. I do not think that you are unintelligent, quite the contrary. I do believe that your ideology corrupts your intelligence. FYI I do live in an area in which water use during summer months has been restricted for many years. "I don't need to get off the planet because I doubt I'll live long enough to see that meteor." What about your kids, grandkids, great grandkids, great great great great grandkids? You don't give a sh*t about them inevitably being buried by a meteor strike but are worried about humans killing the planet sometime in the distant future long after you are gone? Let me clue you in, mate, dead is dead. Your progeny is more likely in proximate danger from that distant meteor than by the human virus to which you refer. "Sorry but I won't join you worshiping the gods of technology, oil and coal or the words of long dead prophets of doom" Another inappropriate and unjustified rant of the mindless knee jerk chicken little. I said nothing about worshipping any gods, other than the God that created us all and I didn't even do that in this thread. And exactly were did I worship the words of long dead prophets of doom? In my ridicule of them? Lastly, I never asked you to join anything but to just use your intellect and inform it with the broadest range of facts as practical. Oh, I gather that you think the Yellowstone caldera is also caused by the human virus infecting the world. You also probably think that the global warming that had reversed all of those countless Ice Ages were man was no where to be seen were also caused by the human virus infecting the world. So man f*cked up the planet before, during and after he showed up on it and is the cause of every catastrophic event in nature? Neat trick I must say. All powerful Man. Destroyer of Nature. Hmmmmmm.......move over God. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#2. To: cranky (#0)
" Thirty Years From Now, The Entire World … Will Be In Famine” "
#3. To: Stoner (#2)
We are in a Famine for the Truth
#4. To: paraclete (#1)
it hasn't happened despite record temperatures.
#5. To: paraclete (#1)
#6. To: paraclete, cranky, All (#1)
Although we have better estimates of mineral and food reserves we have yet to deal with population and rising population does menace the future for a number of reasons
#7. To: SOSO (#6)
(Edited)
Righty right, mate.
#8. To: paraclete (#7)
The human race has become a virus on the Earth multiplying at an unsustainable rate. Noone knows where the ceiling is, but there has to be one and anything that multiplies at an expotential rate eventually crashes.
#9. To: paraclete (#7)
....... but the truth is hiding in there somewhere and everynow and then it emerges
#10. To: SOSO (#8)
(Edited)
BUt you mindless chcken
#11. To: paraclete (#10)
did your improvements in technology cause the steepness of the curve? No it is the consumption by traditional technologies, fueled by population growth coupled with emerging economies that causes the growth.
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