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Title: New York never mattered, Ted Cruz won the Presidency
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URL Source: http://www.redstate.com/diary/crein ... tered-ted-cruz-won-presidency/
Published: Apr 22, 2016
Author: By: Michael Harrington
Post Date: 2016-04-22 07:29:12 by no gnu taxes
Keywords: None
Views: 2230
Comments: 13
The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered. Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates. Whats left now? California 172 Indiana 57 New Jersey 51 Washington 44 Maryland 38 Nebraska 36 West Virginia 34 South Dakota 29 Connecticut 28 Oregon 28 Montana 27 New Mexico 24 Rhode Island 19 Pennsylvania 17 +54 Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list. He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump… These “losses” (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain’t taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates. Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much. Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention. In fact it is worse than that for Donald Trump because he messed up in West Virginia and automatically loses 3 delegates minimum there, he started his campaign office in California so late that a number of us pundits think he cannot get delegates for all the Congressional Districts there, and Rhode Island is a proportional election. Trump cannot get enough delegates from the remaining States even if he picks up 2 major surprise wins. Ted Cruz has seen an additional bunch of Delegates arrive with his securing S. Carolina for sure (while not fully voted yet you can take this to the bank), Nebraska voted their delegates for Cruz, and Indiana is a done deal according to Party Insiders. Those 54 in Pennsylvania are rumored to be in contention, but not for Trump. Apparently Kasich is making a big play there. However it still hurts Trump significantly, leaving him no way to continue on. One of the most surprising developments was Florida and New Jersey. Rubio had his team walk over everyone in Florida, those 99 delegates are his. In New Jersey Christie is actually strong-arming the leadership in a potentially illegal manner, and is securing almost all of the slates there. Yes you read those right, they secured their home States and not for Trump. However I reiterate, Trump has already lost the challenge to get to 1237 delegates. There is NO CHANCE OF A TRUMP NOMINATION. Current Pledged Delegates for Cruz is estimated by me to be at 865 delegates. Where does Ted Cruz secure the remaining delegates? He needs 372 to win the convention on 2nd or 3rd ticket (vote): Oregon 28 Oklahoma 43 California (projected) 100 South Dakota 29 Pennsylvania (Possible Kasich) 54 Arkansas 40 Kansas 40 Kentucky 46 Montana 27 The list goes on. We have only really gotten a bit over half way in the actual positions. Ted Cruz is the champion here, no other is coming close currently. There is well in excess of 450 delegates I deem “likely” to “Guaranteed” for Ted Cruz. Due to the machinations of Kasich, Rubio, and Christie the establishment has secured 235 delegates already. This means when Ted Cruz gets 137 more delegates to pledge to him that Trump is mathematically out there as well without offering one of them (Not Rubio) the Vice Presidency, and he is 222 delegates being pledged for Ted Cruz to be guaranteed mathematically eliminated in a contested convention. The odds of Trump getting the nomination is now under 1% in my view. Yes that statement is correct. Trump cannot turn the tide in enough States, his efforts in New Mexico are also showing lagging (he had to strong arm them to extend the time he needs to search for people to be potential delegates) and he cannot win so many pledges in an obvious hostile venue in the remaining time. Trump is done. So, here I am, the first of the major and minor Statisticians, I am calling the election formally for Ted Cruz. Yes this is my formal announcement. I was going to wait until April 27th, but the nature of the States has been provided to me by various sources, and I am confident that even with two major upsets that Trump is not going to win. Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.
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#1. To: no gnu taxes (#0)
Cue Hail to the Chief, for Madame President. Ted Cruz is never getting within a mile of the White House.
You Cruztards are almost as vile and disruptive as the Paultards. Give it up already.... stick a big fat fork in his Canadian backside. He's FINISHED.
I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
I noticed something interesting - ABC Good Morning America held 2 town-hall type forums when the candidates were in NYC. The two candidates , the ONLY two they featured were Hillary and Cruz. Seems that the puppet masters have already decided who will be running in the general election. In a Cop Culture, the Bill of Rights Doesn’t Amount to Much As delusional as this author is (and yes I think he's delusional), Trump is just as likely as not to have the needed delegates at the time of the convention as he is to have them. The only thing that may keep Cruz from getting the nomination is he is hated almost as much as Trump by the GOP elites. Almost.
Obama has played at being a president while enjoying the perks … golf, insanely expensive vacations at tax-payer expense. He has ignored the responsibilities of the job; no plans, no budgets, no alternatives … just finger pointing; making him a complete failure as a president
Oh, my. It's all in caps so it must be true.
The only way Donald can loose is with these:
`eth yalad `eth muwth.
Michael Harrington is either delusional, or he just writes whatever the drones at Red State want to read. Harrington offered some gushing optimism for Cruz in New York and then the primary happened and his prescient prognostications turned to shit. He had Cruz winning Bronx districts with a majority and Trump coming in third. Harrington had a vivid imagination. Recent polling results say Harrington is either irrational or is simply serving up shit sandwiches for those who want to gobble them up. All polls contradict Harrington. He pulls his numbers out of his ass. - - - - - - - - - - http://www.redstate.com/diary/creinstein/2016/04/10/ted-cruz-won-nomination/ Those in the know are now spreading the word. Read it here first! By: Michael Harrington (Diary) Earlier I had a different Note, and different stuff written. Now I can tell you that Ted Cruz is the winner, I can prove it for most people. Yes read it again, Ted Cruz has won the nomination. Trump is letting people go as we all know. Florida, Ohio, and other battleground States have seen most positions slashed. Staff in his Headquarters have been let go as well even when they were performing critical roles. Trump did not even have a New York Team until last week. He is growing teams in some States, but those teams will be laid off later just as he has done to any State he considers “safe”. Trump is not spending the money needed to secure a campaign team, he thinks force of personality will win. That was his undoing. The Nation will wake up after the New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware election to the very same title as I have posted. “Ted Cruz wins the Nomination”. So how did Ted Cruz do it? It starts in 2014. Ted Cruz decided he was going to run for President. So he hires Cambridge Analytica, some top people from the Romney Campaign, from the Santorum Campaign, the Ron Paul Campaign, amongst others. Not the top paid people. Often those people are there for show only, no Ted Cruz hired the real talent. Ramping up for 2016 Ted made the strategic goal to win his “lane”, to prepare for a Contested Convention, to have the strongest volunteer base, and finally… to win the data war like no one has ever won the data war before. So this leads up to New York and current wins that have been talked about, mentioned, or alluded to. New York Donald Trump ran from efforts to secure California and Colorado for a reason. At first he utterly was bored with Ted Cruz stumping in New York. After all the media, his campaign, the polls… aka the yes men, the yes men, and the Pundits who never seem to score Ted Cruz properly, all were saying Trump was going to win in New York. So why even bother? Until his campaign team studied what areas Ted Cruz was doing, checked the election laws for New York, and hit the panic button (I wonder who is getting fired over this failure). Oh and Trump’s campaign did not see voters had to Register in October of last year. His own children missed the deadline to switch from Democrat to Republican. Trump has been polling above 50%, so the man who really does not know politics assumed he would clean up in New York. His problem is that you need to win 50% in each of the 27 Congressional Districts to get all of the delegates. This is where his headache is beginning. Ted Cruz is campaigning in districts no Republican Presidential candidate has ever campaigned in. This includes the Bronx. With very few Republicans there no normal candidate would take the time. But Ted Cruz can campaign there, win the conservatives, and get potentially over 50%. Did your eyes get wide? Yes, Ted Cruz can win some of these small Republican population CD’s. Now it is unlikely that Ted really takes a lot of them, with Kasich as a spoiler. But it is potentially possible Trump can end up 3rd in some CD’s. Not so many as I would wish would happen, but enough to make the Pundits, the Yes Men, and the Yes Men (doh! I mean pollsters, media, and Trump team) to all say that Trump got shellacked in his home turf. Trump may win the popular vote, but his delegate total is not going to meet his expectations and those silly Yes Men will all be saying that Ted Cruz is going to make it a Contested Convention. [...] http://www.redstate.com/diary/creinstein/2016/04/20/new-york-never-mattered-ted-cruz-won-presidency/ The math is certain, it's time to move on to fighting Hillary. By: Michael Harrington (Diary) The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered. Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates. Whats left now? California 172 Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list. He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump… These “losses” (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain’t taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates. Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much. Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention. [...] http://www.redstate.com/diary/creinstein/2016/04/22/290282/ An Update to New York Never Mattered By: Michael Harrington (Diary) I have been called upon to demonstrate how I get that there is a less than 1% chance of Trump winning the nomination. Steve Deace said I was either “Mad Smart or just Mad“. Others are confused at some of the terms used, some of the results. This will be the clearest document yet and will prove my crazy mad smart efforts. This is by all needs going to be VERY LONG. If you want the cliff notes skip to the bottom. [...] As stated earlier, I have declared that mathematically Ted Cruz is the nominee, there is a 99%+ chance of this occurring. The odds of a Trump win is less than 1%. The math is certain, we only await for the News Media to realize it and the Trump team. [...]
Well there you have it then. I guess Cruz does not need to campaign anymore since according to this he has it hands down.
Cruz is hated because he is a dick back stabber. Trump is hated because he upends the establishment. That is the difference.
May I steal that line?
Cruz is going to jail, make no mistake about it, cruz is going to jail.
`eth yalad `eth muwth.
Please feel free.
Thanks.
Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.
#2. To: no gnu taxes (#0)
#3. To: no gnu taxes (#0)
“Truth is treason in the empire of lies.” - Ron Paul
Americans who have no experience with, or knowledge of, tyranny believe that only terrorists will experience the unchecked power of the state. They will believe this until it happens to them, or their children, or their friends.
Paul Craig Roberts
#4. To: GrandIsland (#2)
#5. To: no gnu taxes (#0)
"There is NO CHANCE OF A TRUMP NOMINATION."
#6. To: no gnu taxes (#0)
#7. To: no gnu taxes (#0)
How Ted Cruz has won the Nomination
Red State
April 10th, 2016 at 07:08 PM | New York never mattered, Ted Cruz won the Presidency
Red State
April 20th, 2016 at 06:00 PM
Indiana 57
New Jersey 51
Washington 44
Maryland 38
Nebraska 36
West Virginia 34
South Dakota 29
Connecticut 28
Oregon 28
Montana 27
New Mexico 24
Rhode Island 19
Pennsylvania 17 +54 Ted Cruz has won the nomination *Detailed Analysis*
Red State
April 22nd, 2016 at 04:35 AM
#8. To: nolu chan (#7)
#9. To: no gnu taxes (#4)
#10. To: Pericles (#9)
Cruz is hated because he is a dick back stabber. Trump is hated because he upends the establishment. That is the difference.
#11. To: no gnu taxes (#0)
#12. To: Roscoe (#10)
#13. To: Pericles (#12)
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