[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

"Pete Hegseth Is Right for the DOD"

"Why Our Constitution Secures Liberty, Not Democracy"

Woodworking and Construction Hacks

"CNN: Reporters Were Crying and Hugging in the Hallways After Learning of Matt Gaetz's AG Nomination"

"NEW: Democrat Officials Move to Steal the Senate Race in Pennsylvania, Admit to Breaking the Law"

"Pete Hegseth Is a Disruptive Choice for Secretary of Defense. That’s a Good Thing"

Katie Britt will vote with the McConnell machine

Battle for Senate leader heats up — Hit pieces coming from Thune and Cornyn.

After Trump’s Victory, There Can Be No Unity Without A Reckoning

Vivek Ramaswamy, Dark-horse Secretary of State Candidate

Megyn Kelly has a message for Democrats. Wait for the ending.

Trump to choose Tom Homan as his “Border Czar”

"Trump Shows Demography Isn’t Destiny"

"Democrats Get a Wake-Up Call about How Unpopular Their Agenda Really Is"

Live Election Map with ticker shows every winner.

Megyn Kelly Joins Trump at His Final PA Rally of 2024 and Explains Why She's Supporting Him

South Carolina Lawmaker at Trump Rally Highlights Story of 3-Year-Old Maddie Hines, Killed by Illegal Alien

GOP Demands Biden, Harris Launch Probe into Twice-Deported Illegal Alien Accused of Killing Grayson Davis

Previously-Deported Illegal Charged With Killing Arkansas Children’s Hospital Nurse in Horror DUI Crash

New Data on Migrant Crime Rates Raises Eyebrows, Alarms

Thousands of 'potentially fraudulent voter registration applications' Uncovered, Stopped in Pennsylvania

Michigan Will Count Ballot of Chinese National Charged with Voting Illegally

"It Did Occur" - Kentucky County Clerk Confirms Voting Booth 'Glitch'' Shifted Trump Votes To Kamala

Legendary Astronaut Buzz Aldrin 'wholeheartedly' Endorses Donald Trump

Liberal Icon Naomi Wolf Endorses Trump: 'He's Being More Inclusive'

(Washed Up Has Been) Singer Joni Mitchell Screams 'F*** Trump' at Hollywood Bowl

"Analysis: The Final State of the Presidential Race"

He’ll, You Pieces of Garbage

The Future of Warfare -- No more martyrdom!

"Kamala’s Inane Talking Points"

"The Harris Campaign Is Testament to the Toxicity of Woke Politics"

Easy Drywall Patch

Israel Preparing NEW Iran Strike? Iran Vows “Unimaginable” Response | Watchman Newscast

In Logansport, Indiana, Kids are Being Pushed Out of Schools After Migrants Swelled County’s Population by 30%: "Everybody else is falling behind"

Exclusive — Bernie Moreno: We Spend $110,000 Per Illegal Migrant Per Year, More than Twice What ‘the Average American Makes’

Florida County: 41 of 45 People Arrested for Looting after Hurricanes Helene and Milton are Noncitizens

Presidential race: Is a Split Ticket the only Answer?

hurricanes and heat waves are Worse

'Backbone of Iran's missile industry' destroyed by IAF strikes on Islamic Republic

Joe Rogan Experience #2219 - Donald Trump

IDF raids Hezbollah Radwan Forces underground bases, discovers massive cache of weapons

Gallant: ‘After we strike in Iran,’ the world will understand all of our training

The Atlantic Hit Piece On Trump Is A Psy-Op To Justify Post-Election Violence If Harris Loses

Six Al Jazeera journalists are Hamas, PIJ terrorists

Judge Aileen Cannon, who tossed Trump's classified docs case, on list of proposed candidates for attorney general

Iran's Assassination Program in Europe: Europe Goes Back to Sleep

Susan Olsen says Brady Bunch revival was cancelled because she’s MAGA.

Foreign Invaders crisis cost $150B in 2023, forcing some areas to cut police and fire services: report

Israel kills head of Hezbollah Intelligence.

Tenn. AG reveals ICE released thousands of ‘murderers and rapists’ from detention centers into US streets


Status: Not Logged In; Sign In

The Establishments war on Donald Trump
See other The Establishments war on Donald Trump Articles

Title: CBS Battleground Polls: Donald Trump Extends Leads, Lack of “Authenticity” Dogging Ted Cruz…
Source: The Conservative Treehouse
URL Source: https://theconservativetreehouse.co ... authenticity-dogging-ted-cruz/
Published: Apr 18, 2016
Author: Sundance
Post Date: 2016-04-18 14:17:30 by nolu chan
Keywords: None
Views: 4093
Comments: 17

CBS Battleground Polls: Donald Trump Extends Leads, Lack of “Authenticity” Dogging Ted Cruz…

Posted on April 17, 2016 by sundance
Conservative Treehouse

CBS via YouGov has released a series of battleground polls for New York, Pennsylvania and California (full pdf’s below). Interestingly the polls are not identical questionnaires; instead they appear geographically nuanced, specifically on the Democrat queries.

However, there are some rather interesting trend similarities which are embedding as the campaigns of the three remaining republican candidates take on increased importance:

  • The electorate has made up their mind. There is only about 3% of the electorate who might change their vote. There will not be any “surging” per se’.

  • Donald Trump’s overall appeal is across all demographics and internal ideologies.

  • Donald Trump wins with women voters, and higher information political consumers.

  • Very Importantly – Trump is seen as most authentic and capable as a political change agent.

  • Trump also leads with Hispanic voters in California, and absolutely crushes the competition with the Asian electorate.

  • The most important issue in all three states (NY, PA, CA) are jobs/economy. And economic voters are overwhelmingly Trump voters. (Trump also leads on the alternative issues – second place: security/terrorism)

  • Conversely, Ted Cruz is seen as the most “inauthentic” candidate in the race.

[snip - state polling results]

In every poll Donald Trump wins the “he-is-who-he-is” factor.

As Lee Atwater would tell you, that’s critically important. Once the broader electorate sense “who you are”, and become comfortable with that sensibility, there is a remarkable shift toward granting the benefit of doubt in policy and change.

[The most recent example of such a benefactor was Bill Clinton in his prime.]

However, in the same polls, Ted Cruz is viewed as the candidate willing to tell you everything you want to hear so long as it benefits him. That’s the “authenticity” issue. Just as there is a long-term benefit in positive authenticity polling, there is a long-term detriment in negative authenticity polling.

Opinions of “authenticity” are almost impossible to change once they embed. The word ‘almost’ is an understatement, because no politician in modern times has ever been able to reverse the authenticity component.

Bernie Sanders also benefits from positive opinions in authenticity, and Hillary Clinton is viewed similarly to Cruz as inherently inauthentic as a matter of mere disposition.

“Lyin’ Ted” and issues with “The System” are linguistic kill shots that candidate Trump has used skillfully. The greater benefit is now becoming easier to see. (2 images)

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  


TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

#1. To: nolu chan (#0)

“Lyin’ Ted” and issues with “The System” are linguistic kill shots that candidate Trump has used skillfully. The greater benefit is now becoming easier to see.

Oh HORSESHIT! It is about a political system that has fallen into decay since WW2. None of these candidates care. None of these candidates will change anything.

buckeroo  posted on  2016-04-18   15:26:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: nolu chan (#0)


The D&R terrorists hate us because we're free, to vote second party
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul

Hondo68  posted on  2016-04-18   16:06:24 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: nolu chan (#0)

The most important issue in all three states (NY, PA, CA) are jobs/economy.

Back when I lived in these three states, the most important thing was blow jobs.

Fred Mertz  posted on  2016-04-18   16:23:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: nolu chan (#0)

Trump is surging against Cruz or Hillary?

This is not very clear at all.

For when we were still without strength, in due time Christ died for the ungodly. For scarcely for a righteous man will one die; yet perhaps for a good man someone would even dare to die. But God demonstrates His own love toward us, in that while we were still sinners, Christ died for us. (Romans 5:6-8)

redleghunter  posted on  2016-04-18   16:25:39 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: redleghunter (#4)

Trump is surging against Cruz or Hillary?

This is not very clear at all.

Cruz.

The title:

CBS Battleground Polls: Donald Trump Extends Leads, Lack of “Authenticity” Dogging Ted Cruz…

The article notes that Hillary suffers from the same public perception of inauthenticity that is cratering the Cruz campaign.

nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-18   16:39:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: nolu chan (#5)

It does not really matter how Cruz and Trump match up against each other at this point in the race. It matters how they match up against Hitlery.

Popularity polls within parties right now mean little. Most votes were cast already and the process is now up to the state conventions and on to the national GOP convention. Been like that for decades.

For when we were still without strength, in due time Christ died for the ungodly. For scarcely for a righteous man will one die; yet perhaps for a good man someone would even dare to die. But God demonstrates His own love toward us, in that while we were still sinners, Christ died for us. (Romans 5:6-8)

redleghunter  posted on  2016-04-18   17:02:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: redleghunter (#6)

Hitlery is the anointed one.

The next three months are a sideshow for those politically inclined.

Fred Mertz  posted on  2016-04-18   17:05:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: Fred Mertz, feel the Bern (#7)

Hitlery is the anointed one.

Bernie is an ol' Brooklyn boy. He'll clean that Jamacia Republican, DJT's clock in the NY state primary!

Trump has like 20 bodyguards, but Bernie just wanders around NYC with his bongos.


The D&R terrorists hate us because we're free, to vote second party
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul

Hondo68  posted on  2016-04-18   17:33:49 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: hondo68 (#8)

My dad grew up in Brooklyn.

I feel the Bern.

Fred Mertz  posted on  2016-04-18   17:35:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: buckeroo (#1)

The article is so true!

I have now made it official. I have officially predicted that Trump will be the 45th rider of the pale horse. (See my predictions for 2016 at the7lastplagues.com).

interpreter  posted on  2016-04-18   17:36:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: redleghunter, nolu chan (#4)

Trump is surging against Cruz or Hillary?

This is not very clear at all.

He's relying on very favorable outlier polling by CBS and pompom swinging Fox .

As you see in this RCP average ; the other polling organizations have it much closer

"If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato

tomder55  posted on  2016-04-18   18:15:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: buckeroo (#1)

Oh HORSESHIT! It is about a political system that has fallen into decay since WW2. None of these candidates care. None of these candidates will change anything.

It's about who does or doesn't represent that decay.

rlk  posted on  2016-04-18   18:37:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: Fred Mertz (#3)

The most important issue in all three states (NY, PA, CA) are jobs/economy.

Back when I lived in these three states, the most important thing was blow jobs.

So you were visiting the bath houses back then? Gross, man.

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-18   19:16:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: Fred Mertz, hondo68 (#9)

My dad grew up in Brooklyn.

I feel the Bern.

I grew up in Brooklyn and I most definitely do not. He left Brooklyn before I did and I have been gone for over 45 years. I was even a lifeguard at Coney Island for a couple of summers. I would not know the place today and neither would he.

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-18   19:20:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: tomder55, redleghunter (#11)

He's relying on very favorable outlier polling by CBS and pompom swinging Fox .

As you see in this RCP average ; the other polling organizations have it much closer

Of course, Trump has led in every poll this year. Desperate people make desperate afactual claims.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html

RCP Average      3/6  - 4/15  40.4  31.4  15.8  Trump +9.0
CBS News/YouGov  4/13 - 4/15  49    31    16    Trump +18
Field            3/24 - 4/4   39    32    18    Trump +7
SurveyUSA        3/30 - 4/3   40    32    17    Trump +8
LA Times         3/16 - 3/23  36    35    14    Trump +1
PPIC             3/6  - 3/15  38    27    14    Trump +11
Landslide/NSON   3/9  - 3/10  38    22    20    Trump +16
Smith Johnson    3/7  - 3/9   25    20    15    Trump +5
   Research

nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-18   19:45:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: nolu chan (#15)

Trump has led in every poll this year.

Nobody here said otherwise.

Desperate people make desperate afactual claims.

The irony is priceless.

A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them.

ConservingFreedom  posted on  2016-04-18   21:25:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: ConservingFreedom (#16)

Ted Cruz mathematically eliminated

from any chance to secure 1,237 bound delegates before the convention.

In New York, the presumptive candidate Donald Trump opened such a can of whupass, the now mathematically eliminated Ted Cruz was ignominiously relegated to third place, 45 points behind Trump and ten points behind John Kasich.

R.I.P. Cruz campaign, April 19, 2016

nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-20   10:26:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Please report web page problems, questions and comments to webmaster@libertysflame.com