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Title: How Trump can lock up GOP nomination before the convention
Source:
Associated Press
URL Source: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie ... AULT&CTIME=2016-04-16-09-02-40
Published: Apr 16, 2016
Author: Stephen Ohlemacher
Post Date: 2016-04-16 09:23:40 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 7569
Comments: 40
To all the political junkies yearning for a contested Republican convention this summer: not so fast. It's still possible for Donald Trump to clinch the nomination by the end of the primaries on June 7. His path is narrow and perilous. But it's plausible and starts with a big victory Tuesday in his home state New York primary. Trump is the only candidate with a realistic chance of reaching the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination before the July convention in Cleveland. His rivals, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, can only hope to stop him. If Cruz and Kasich are successful, politicos across the country will have the summer of their dreams - a convention with an uncertain outcome. But Trump can put an end to those dreams, and he can do it without any of the 150 or so delegates who will go to the convention free to support the candidate of their choice. What comes next isn't a prediction, but rather, a way in which Trump could win the nomination outright on June 7. To be sure, Trump will have to start doing a lot better than he has so far. He gets that chance starting Tuesday, beginning the day with 744 delegates. --- NEW YORK There are 95 delegates at stake in the Empire State, and it's important for Trump to win a big majority of them. It won't be easy. There are 14 statewide delegates and three delegates in each congressional district. If a candidate gets more than 50 percent of the statewide vote, he gets all 14 delegates. Otherwise, he has to share them with other candidates. If a candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote in a congressional district, he gets all three delegates. Otherwise, again, he has to share. Trump leads statewide in the most recent preference polls, with right around 50 percent. New York is a large and diverse state, so he probably won't win all the congressional districts. Let's say Trump does make it to 50 percent, but Kasich or Cruz wins five congressional districts; Trump will take 77 delegates on the night. Trump's running total: 821 delegates. --- APRIL 26 Five states have primaries on April 26, with 172 delegates at stake: Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island. Pennsylvania could be trouble for Trump. The state has a unique system in which 54 delegates - three from each congressional district - are listed by name on the ballot, with no information for voters to know which candidate they support. That means even if Trump wins Pennsylvania, he's only guaranteed to claim 17 of the state's 71 delegates. Connecticut awards 13 delegates to the statewide winner and three to the winner of each congressional district, for a total of 28. The New York real estate mogul needs to win his neighboring state. If he does well, he could get 22 delegates. Delaware's 16 delegates are winner-take-all, increasing the importance of this small state. If Trump loses Delaware, he has to make it up elsewhere. Maryland awards 14 delegates to the statewide winner and three to the winner of each congressional district, for a total of 38. Recent polls show Trump with a significant lead. If he does well, he could get 32 delegates. Trump can afford to lose Rhode Island, which awards its 19 delegates proportionally. In all, it's a day on which we'll say Trump claims 93 delegates. Trump's running total: 914. --- MAY Five states hold contests in May, with a total of 199 delegates at stake: Indiana, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oregon and Washington State. Indiana's May 3 primary is important for Trump. The state awards 30 delegates to the statewide winner and three delegates to the winner of each congressional district, for a total of 57. If Trump can win the state and a majority of the congressional districts, he could collect 45 delegates. West Virginia is another unique state in which voters elect 31 delegates in the May 10 primary. In West Virginia, however, the delegates will be listed on the ballot along with the presidential candidate they support. If Trump does well here, he could pick up 20 or more delegates. Nebraska's 36 delegates are winner-take-all. But if Nebraska is like its neighbors Kansas and Iowa, two states Cruz won earlier in the race, Trump can't count on these delegates. Oregon and Washington state award delegates proportionally, so even the losers get some. We'll give Trump 70 delegates for the month. Trump's running total: 984. --- JUNE 7 This could be Trump's D-Day. Or his Waterloo. Five states vote on June 7, with 303 delegates up for grabs. The biggest prize is California, along with New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana and New Mexico. The only state Trump can afford to lose is New Mexico, which awards 24 delegates proportionally. New Jersey, South Dakota and Montana are winner-take-all, with a total of 107 delegates. California is more complicated, with 172 delegates at stake. The statewide winner gets only 13. The other 159 are awarded according to the results in individual congressional districts. Each of the state's 53 congressional districts has three delegates. You win the district, you get all three. For Trump to clinch the nomination on June 7 - the last day of the primary season - he has to win a big majority of California's congressional districts. If he wins 39 districts, he gets 130 delegates. On the last voting day of the primary campaign, we'll say Trump wins 242 delegates. Trump's running total: 1,226 - or 11 delegates short of the magic number. --- OH, WAIT! Missouri has certified the results of its March 15 primary, with Trump beating Cruz by 1,965 votes. If the results survive a potential recount, Trump wins Missouri and another 12 delegates. Trump's total: 1,238. Cue the balloons.
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#1. To: cranky (#0)
Let's stop right there. Suppose that's all Trump gets in the first round. If Trump has 1226 and doesn't end up with the nomination, does the author think the Trump supporters will just shrug their shoulders and say, "Too bad. We'll get 'em next time?"
I can't speak for the author but I would think the Trump supporters have considered the possibility and have some sort of strategy in place for a second vote, should it come to that. Maybe even a strategy for a third vote. There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't
He might. I suspect many will stay home, some will vote 3rd party, and some here will vote for the Democratic ticket. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
sounds to me he is coming in on a wing and prayer, either that or the duck is already dead, you see your analogy ignors the other half of the equation. If Dump has 1226 votes then there are more against him than for him, a difficult position and we don't know how colorado will vote. Isn't California full of hispanics who Dump has insulted? or do you think they all vote democrat?
I don't think it matters. I still cannot envision a scenario whereupon either national committee puts Trumps name on either ballot. But if either does, I don't expect their major donors to financially support that decision. There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't
Keeping who they support a secret negates the reason for the election.
Since WW2, these sorts of shenanigans have been on going. So, what is new now? Rhetorically, your awareness to America's issues about a two party system closing the People from being represented within the government? My, how tyme flys!
most Kalifornians votes Dem although I am hearing rumors of some changing registration so they can guarantee that Trump wins the state's delegates (similar to the move Rush Limbaugh attempted in 2008 called Operation Chaos). The Republicans left in the state are very conservative . Right now Trump has a 6 point lead in the average of the polls . But the gap is narrowing . "If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato
There is a movement to change it. If it is changed the forces of degeneracy. ignorance, and parasitism will eventually try to bring it back.
Sure they are. And the gap has "narrowed" from 6 points to 18 points. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-keeps-large-lead-in-new-york-ahead-in-california/ [excerpt] Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from 1,237 before the convention in nine (9) days.
You worry many posters on LF. All of your posts for Trump are based on some sort of "poll" that has nothing to do with the rules and constraints of so-called "popular" candidates within the political parties. Chan - you are an absolute failure.
Could be ... but YouGov is rated only C+ by FiveThirtyEight, whereas the three previous polls that make it a 6-point gap are at A+, A, and B. A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them.
When I checked the RCP average on Friday the margin was 6 points. Today the margin has increased to 9 . See the chart here
"If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato
That is an interesting graph Tom particularly the top end and if that trend were universal Dump may just get across the line, but one swallow doesn't not a summer make and one state isn't enough. The dirty tricts brigand will make sure he doesn't get there, he obviously wasn't savvy to the process
You worry many posters on LF. All of your posts for Trump are based on some sort of "poll" that has nothing to do with the rules and constraints of so-called "popular" candidates within the political parties. Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from 1,237 before the convention in nine (9) days. Fortunately, we need only wait nine (9) days to confirm who is full of shit.
And the gap has "narrowed" from 6 points to 18 points. When I checked the RCP average on Friday the margin was 6 points. Today the margin has increased to 9 . The margin of all the polls going back to 3/6 to 3/16 was bumped up to 9.0. The only April poll, from 4/13 to 4/15 shows Trump +18. The gap did not narrow, it increased. What was your evidence that the gap was narrowing?
your CBS poll is an outlier . Look at the link I provided . RCP does an average of all the polls. Only CBS has that big a margin . But go ahead and believe it if you must . I would contend that the CBS poll drives the average up and the race is even closer than the 9% advantage they give Trump. "If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_r epublican_presidential_primary-5322.html The misfortune of your argument is that your chosen RCPa criteria found that the CBS/Yougov poll met the criteria for use within its selective poll aggregation methodology. If you reject the inclusion of that poll by RCPa, you must reject the methodology of RCPa, and the only source for your poll sourcing would be invalid. If you accept RCPa as having validity, it is glaringly obvious that your claim that the gap is narrowing is without merit. The RCPa poll indicates that the gap has increased 50% from 6 to 9. The only time showing a Cruz "narrowing" is between 4/9 and 4/10. This is not related to any poll on those dates. It resulted from dropping of the then month old poll of 3/9 - 3/10 which had Trump ahead +16.
no it wasn't at the time I made the comment (4/15-4/16 ). The gap increased over the weekend . There is still plenty of time before the Kalifornia primary . "If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato
no it wasn't at the time I made the comment (4/15-4/16 ). The gap increased over the weekend . There is still plenty of time before the Kalifornia primary . Nonsense. You claimed the gap was narrowing. [tomder55 #8] Right now Trump has a 6 point lead in the average of the polls . But the gap is narrowing . When was the gap 6 and when did narrow to less than 6? That was your claim. I have provided the RCPa data for every day from 4/4 to 4/17. In 8 days, Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from 1,237 before the convention. In California, Cruz will be mistaken for an walker extra who has wandered off the set of The Walking Dead. Learn to start dealing with it.
Unlike yourself, I could give a shit to begin with. I have no belief in "polls" or even the election process no matter who is involved. The system is rigged and to watch you jump up&down with glee about your boy is proof you don't understand diddly squat.
.....and Trump will not have the majority needed to secure the nomination in the 1st ballot. Then we will see how his self proclaimed great negotiating skills are .We already know that Cruz is not playing for a 1st ballot victory . Actually if Trump takes 50 % in every one of the NY's 27 Congressional districts then he may just get enough delegated to win a 1st vote victory in Cleveland . But you know and I know that isn't going to happen. "If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato
I only observed the undeniable truth. The Cruz campaign has cratered and Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from any possibility of gaining 1,237 before the convention after next Tuesday. For some people, the truth hurts.
Just as we both know that gaining all 95 in NY is not necessary and that Cruz will be mathematically eliminated next Tuesday from gaining 1,237 before the convention.
ROTFL
http://freebeacon.com/politics/clinton-surrenders-coughing-fit/ There is a lot of oppression against women that we have to address,” Clinton said and coughed. “Excuse me, sorry,” she said and blamed her cough on allergies. “Allergy season,” Clinton said and reached for her water cup. “How do you guys do it?” Her cough was such that host DJ Envy offered Clinton CPR. “Do you need mouth-to-mouth, CPR? Are you alright?” he said. Host Charlamagne tha God said Clinton’s cough sounded like she had been smoking medical marijuana. “Senator, you’re coughing like you got some medicinal,” he said. Clinton laughed and lamented that she didn’t have any. “Yeah, I need some,” Clinton said and laughed into her water cup. “Excuse me.” She carried on with the interview despite her hoarse voice. “My voice is failing here,” Clinton said between gasps. Hillary might croak, then Trump will have to debate Bernie Sanders. She's been smoking the medicinal maryjane and coughing up fur-balls. Trump will drop out to avoid having to debate Bernie. If Trump has any personal dignity ... any ethics and moral principles or character, he will drop out tonite. He can not perform the changes he has convinced the common riff-raff that he is going to do. I pity these Trump voters because when they find out they have been "dooped" by another cheesy president candidate, irrespective of political party affiliation, selling snake oil they may want to commit suicide.
That ain't happening. However, if you are that depressed... you have the constitutional right to hang yourself up in the garage. I've seen my share of successful hangings... I can give ya tips. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
Wipe off you chin.... You have a little Commie Sanders mayo on your libtard loving chinny chin chin. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
You voted for Mitt! in 2012, correct? You should already have hung yourself.
And to watch you cry like a little school bitch is priceless. Say it, princess... President Trump. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
Negative, Cupcake. I lived in NY in 2012. It was obvious Obunghole was gonna win the libtarded state. It was fruitless to vote. I sat that vote out. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
I sat that vote out. You donut eaters have a tenacity to sit around a lot. You exemplify the classick caricature of a do-nothing donut eater.
....... GI ........................................ Lady Lindsey Cupcake was fruit I sat that vote out. With Lindsey Graham! Ted Cruz mathematically eliminated from any chance to secure 1,237 bound delegates before the convention. In New York, the presumptive candidate Donald Trump opened such a can of whupass, the now mathematically eliminated Ted Cruz was ignominiously relegated to third place, 45 points behind Trump and ten points behind John Kasich. R.I.P. Cruz campaign, April 19, 2016
Trump regards his "presidential stature" as an investment. He brags about how little he pays for his "movement" wheras Jeb! spent over 100M bucks for nothing. So far, Trump has not provided details to support his monotonous, boisterous and repetitive speeches concerning his plans. Just lip service is provided by Trump. HELL, my dead dawg Scruffy can do that!
You ain't seen Reince Preibes math yet! The answer always turns out to be... Hillary 2016. When you write-in TooConservative as VP on your ballot, please make sure there's no space in it. There is some similarity to the '68 election. So far, Trump has not provided details to support his monotonous, boisterous and repetitive speeches concerning his plans. Just lip service is provided by Trump. HELL, my dead dawg Scruffy can do that! For the record, your dead dog Scruffy has not, and will not, say shit. Jeb! did spend well over 100M for nothing. Consensus opinion indicated that few wanted to hear about how wonderful yet another Bush would be. Since Carter, the government has racked up 18T in debt. They love to spend other people's money. If it reassures you to hear a politician recite his five point plan on everything and everything, including how to increase benefits and reduce taxes, you should like just about any establishment politician. How has the collection of incompetent shitheads with a plan that have been elected been working out for you?
Nope, I am voting for my dead dawg, Scruffy as POTUS! I recoginise that he doesn't wag his tail anymore but neither do any of the presidential candidates; so with this admission, Scruffy for President!
You worry many posters on LF. All of your posts for Trump are based on some sort of "poll" that has nothing to do with the rules and constraints of so-called "popular" candidates within the political parties. Cruz was mathematically eliminated a bit early on 19 April. You worry many posters on LF with your delusions and inability to discern the obvious. Buck, you are an absolute failure. Lose with Cruz, he's yesterday's news.
"Trump's running total: 1,226 - or 11 delegates short of the magic number."
#2. To: misterwhite (#1)
If Trump has 1226 and doesn't end up with the nomination, does the author think the Trump supporters will just shrug their shoulders and say, "Too bad. We'll get 'em next time?"
#3. To: misterwhite (#1)
" does the author think the Trump supporters will just shrug their shoulders and say, "Too bad. We'll get 'em next time?" "
#4. To: cranky (#0)
Cue the balloons.
#5. To: paraclete (#4)
or do you think they all vote democrat?
#6. To: cranky (#0)
Pennsylvania could be trouble for Trump. The state has a unique system in which 54 delegates - three from each congressional district - are listed by name on the ballot, with no information for voters to know which candidate they support.
#7. To: rlk (#6)
Keeping who they support a secret negates the reason for the election.
#8. To: paraclete (#4)
Isn't California full of hispanics who Dump has insulted? or do you think they all vote democrat?
#9. To: buckeroo (#7)
Since WW2, these sorts of shenanigans have been on going. So, what is new now?
#10. To: tomder55, paraclete (#8)
The Republicans left in the state are very conservative .
Right now Trump has a 6 point lead in the average of the polls . But the gap is narrowing .
Whether that convention is wide open or not likely comes down to California, the last, largest remaining state to vote, on June 7. There, Trump leads Cruz and Kasich as the CBS News Battleground Tracker begins looking at the contest, 49 percent to 31 percent for Cruz and 16 percent for Kasich. At the race's current pace, Trump would need a sizable win there -- as well as strong performances in between -- to clinch the nomination outright.
#11. To: nolu chan (#10)
Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from 1,237 before the convention in nine (9) days.
#12. To: nolu chan (#10)
And the gap has "narrowed" from 6 points to 18 points.
#13. To: nolu chan, paraclete (#10)
#14. To: tomder55 (#13)
Today the margin has increased to 9
#15. To: buckeroo (#11)
Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from 1,237 before the convention in nine (9) days.
#16. To: tomder55 (#13)
the gap is narrowing .
#17. To: nolu chan, paraclete (#16)
#18. To: tomder55, paraclete (#17)
your CBS poll is an outlier . Look at the link I provided . RCP does an average of all the polls. Only CBS has that big a margin . But go ahead and believe it if you must . I would contend that the CBS poll drives the average up and the race is even closer than the 9% advantage they give Trump.
4/4 (34.3 - 26.0) +8.3
4/5 (35.4 - 27.2) +8.2
4/6 (35.4 - 27.2) +8.2
4/7 (36.0 - 28.0) +8.0
4/8 (36.0 - 28.0) +8.0
4/9 (38.2 - 29.6) +8.6
4/10 (38.3 - 31.5) +6.8
4/11 (38.3 - 31.5) +6.8
4/12 (38.3 - 31.5) +6.8
4/13 (38.3 - 31.5) +6.8
4/14 (38.3 - 31.5) +6.8
4/15 (38.3 - 31.5) +6.8
4/16 (38.3 - 31.5) +6.8
4/17 (40.4 - 31.4) +9.0
Poll Dates Sample MoE T C K
Landslide/NSON 3/9-3/10 407 LV 4.9 38 22 20 Trump +16
#19. To: nolu chan (#18)
If you accept RCPa as having validity, it is glaringly obvious that your claim that the gap is narrowing is without merit.
#20. To: tomder55 (#19)
If you accept RCPa as having validity, it is glaringly obvious that your claim that the gap is narrowing is without merit.
#21. To: nolu chan (#15)
Fortunately, we need only wait nine (9) days to confirm who is full of shit.
#22. To: nolu chan (#20)
In 8 days, Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from 1,237 before the convention.
#23. To: buckeroo (#21)
Unlike yourself, I could give a shit to begin with. I have no belief in "polls" or even the election process no matter who is involved. The system is rigged and to watch you jump up&down with glee about your boy is proof you don't understand diddly squat.
#24. To: tomder55 (#22)
Actually if Trump takes 50 % in every one of the NY's 27 Congressional districts then he may just get enough delegated to win a 1st vote victory in Cleveland . But you know and I know that isn't going to happen.
#25. To: nolu chan (#23)
I only observed the undeniable truth.
#26. To: buckeroo, Hillarys medical marijuana, mouth-to-mouth, CPR, nolu chan (#25)
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#27. To: hondo68 (#26)
(Edited)
Trump will drop out to avoid having to debate Bernie.
#28. To: buckeroo (#27)
If Trump has any personal dignity ... any ethics and moral principles or character, he will drop out tonite.
#29. To: hondo68 (#26)
Trump will drop out to avoid having to debate Bernie.
#30. To: GrandIsland (#28)
#31. To: buckeroo (#21)
and to watch you jump up&down with glee about your boy is proof you don't understand diddly squat.
#32. To: buckeroo (#30)
You voted for Mitt! in 2012
#33. To: GrandIsland (#32)
It was obvious Obunghole was gonna win the libtarded state. It was fruitless to vote.
#34. To: GrandIsland, buckeroo (#32)
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#35. To: buckeroo, hondo68 (#27)
If Trump has any personal dignity ... any ethics and moral principles or character, he will drop out tonite.
#36. To: nolu chan, hondo68, Fred Mertz, Too Conservative (#35)
Ted Cruz mathematically eliminated
#37. To: buckeroo, GOP math, beyond common core, nolu chan, Fred Mertz, TooConservative, Scruffy (#36)
Ted Cruz mathematically eliminated
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#38. To: buckeroo (#36)
He brags about how little he pays for his "movement" wheras Jeb! spent over 100M bucks for nothing.
#39. To: hondo68, TooConservative, nolu chan (#37)
When you write-in TooConservative as VP on your ballot, please make sure there's no space in it.
#40. To: buckeroo (#11)
Cruz will be mathematically eliminated from 1,237 before the convention in nine (9) days.
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