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Title: Trump’s getting trounced in Indiana
Source: Politico
URL Source: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/ ... d-trump-indiana-primary-221747
Published: Apr 9, 2016
Author: Kyle Cheney
Post Date: 2016-04-09 12:13:10 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 3626
Comments: 35

Indiana hasn’t cast its ballots for president yet, but Donald Trump is already losing.

Republican Party insiders in the state will select 27 delegates to the national convention on Saturday, and Trump is assured to be nearly shut out of support, according to interviews with a dozen party leaders and officials involved in the delegate selection process. Anti-Trump sentiment runs hot among GOP leadership in Indiana, and it’s driving a virulent rejection of the mogul among likely delegates.

“If Satan had the lead on him and was one delegate away from being nominated as our candidate, and Donald Trump was the alternative, I might vote for Donald Trump,” said Craig Dunn, a local GOP leader who is running to represent Indiana’s 4th Congressional District at the national convention in Cleveland. “I’ve always wanted to own a casino, but he couldn’t give me a casino and have me vote for him.”

Indiana GOP insiders are working to engineer slates of delegates — three from each of nine congressional districts — that will turn their backs on Trump at a contested convention in July. Another 27 will be elected at a state committee meeting next week.

Indiana’s delegates will be bound to the results of the state’s May 3 primary on the first vote in Cleveland, and Trump is expected to be competitive in that contest. (There is no current public polling of the state, but several GOP leaders suggested he'd be competitive in at least a couple of the state's nine Congressional districts.) But if Trump fails to clinch the nomination, they’ll be free to vote their conscience — and that means a rapid rejection of Trump. The state’s Republican national committeeman, John Hammond, has vocally called to reject Trump as well.

That would mark just another blow to Trump’s chances, should the convention go to a second ballot as expected. Though he’s won more votes and state primaries than rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich, Trump has failed spectacularly to win separate delegate selection battles to his better-organized rivals. Though in most cases, he’s lost because of Cruz’s superior organization, Indiana appears to be a break from the norm. Most of the hostility to Trump there is homegrown.

“I believe we need a candidate that is likable, and I believe we need a candidate that is electable. And at this point, I have not seen any evidence for a general election that Donald Trump is electable,” said Kyle Babcock, a veteran Indiana GOP insider who’s on the 3rd Congressional District delegate slate. Babcock said Trump is his third choice among the three remaining candidates. He’s leaning toward Kasich, he said, because he prizes electability and reclaiming the White House in November.

Pete Seat, an Indiana GOP consultant whose firm was recently retained by the Kasich campaign, said he would be “shocked” if there were more than a handful of Trump supporters in Indiana’s delegation.

“Donald Trump doesn’t represent what I want my party to represent,” said Tom John, chairman of the Indiana GOP’s 7th Congressional District organization. John is running to be a statewide delegate when the party meets next Wednesday to select a separate set of 27 “at-large” delegates. John said the three delegates from his district are also unlikely to favor Trump.

Dunn, from the 4th District, is technically a delegate candidate, but he’s already guaranteed a slot in Cleveland. He’s the GOP’s district chairman and one of only three applicants for its three seats. All delegate applicants around the state were due to file paperwork by March 15, a deadline that several Indiana GOP insiders said went unnoticed in a handful of districts. But it’s the post-application process that explains why Trump is virtually guaranteed to lose delegate battles.

Local GOP district leaders have picked slates of favored candidates from among the applicants that will be considered at Saturday’s caucuses — tiny meetings of county leaders that typically ratify the names with which they’re presented. Applicants must promise to furnish $2,000 to participate after they’re selected, a requirement that tilts the process away from newcomers and outsiders. Among the delegate applicants who made it on to recommended slates: several district GOP leaders, State Treasurer Kelly Mitchell, Secretary of State Connie Lawson, Congresswoman Susan Brooks, Carmel, Indiana, Mayor James Brainard and Portage, Indiana, Mayor James Snyder.

“One of my criteria for filtering out folks was whether or not they support Donald Trump,” said one district GOP leader. “I didn’t care whether they supported Ted Cruz or John Kasich.”

Several delegate candidates said they’re even likely to support an effort to draft their former governor, Mitch Daniels, as an alternative candidate before giving Trump a look.

“I am supporting the Draft Mitch Daniels for President at the convention,” said Nick Barbknecht, a candidate for alternate from the state’s 2nd District, who is also the district GOP vice chairman. Dunn and John agreed that they’d support a Daniels candidacy if it emerged.

Trump’s Indiana chairman, Rex Early, a former state party chairman who just signed on to Trump’s team last weekend, said he hasn’t explored the delegate process enough to see how it will unfold. He said he intends to pursue a slot as an at-large delegate next week, and other GOP leaders said he’s an example of a self-identified Trump backer who could make it through the process, given his stature within the state party.

Informed of the local district’s anti-Trump lean, Early described it as “news to me.”

“I’m sure Trump’s going to have some delegates out there,” he said, adding that he hasn’t spoken to Trump’s district backers to see if they have the pulse of the delegate process. “We’re going to do something, but the Trump people are supposedly coming in this weekend. We’ll have a sit-down and see where we are, they can fill me in on what they’ve done.”

Barbknecht said that like Early, there are sure to be a few other Trump backers that squeak through the process because they're the rare breed that are also longtime party insiders.

"There’s a couple Trump delegates here and there just by virtue of they're powerful donors or powerful elected officials who happen to be Trump supporters — and no one would otherwise preclude them from being delegates," he said.

Reached by POLITICO, Hammond, the Indiana national committeeman, hesitated to repeat his previous criticism of the New York mogul. He agreed that Trump may struggle to win support among Indiana’s delegates, but he said that sentiment will change rapidly if it looks like Trump can win in November — or if he’s able to personally persuade delegates.

“Donald Trump would likely have a steep hill to climb in persuading delegates to him, depending on who’s selected between now and next Wednesday,” said Hammond. “It doesn’t mean people aren’t persuadable. The most important factor for any delegate would be, is this a person who can win back the White House.”

He added, that there’s a strong emphasis on conducting a “fair” delegate selection process for all three campaigns. “Hoosier Republicans are going to aim to be fair and they will,” he said.

One potential bastion of Trump support is in the state’s 1st Congressional District, where local party leaders say the mogul has shown more strength than in the rest of the state. There, the district GOP Chairman Chuck Williams declined to name the three delegates on the caucus slate but said one was an avowed Trump supporter and he’s not sure of the allegiance of the other two. The district saw 30 applicants for delegate slots, which he said were about evenly split between Trump and Cruz, with a couple stray applicants for Kasich.

“Donald Trump has his share of support in our district,” he said.

But Williams, who’s running to be an alternate, added that he, too, is on a mission to draft Daniels at the convention.

“We need to start it nationally,” he said.

Mark Wynn, chairman of the 6th Congressional District GOP, said his district received a flurry of last-minute delegate applications before the March 15 deadline, an apparent effort by Trump allies to insert supporters in the delegation. But Wynn said he hadn’t checked with any delegate aspirants about their leanings in the primary and that the district’s slate, like all the others, would consistof longtime party hands.

Wynn joins several district chairmen in remaining publicly neutral among the three candidates. The 5th District's Kyle Hupfer and the 8th District's C. Rick Martin are also on their local delegate slates and declined to rule out any of the three candidates.

John, the 7th District chairman, said pro-Trump forces attempted to mobilize grass-roots delegate candidates with an email blast encouraging supporters to run. Though he said it resulted in a “handful of people who were sort of unknown to the local party” filing papers, John said none were added to the party’s slate. Instead, the local party recommended district Vice Chair Jennifer Ping, Indianapolis businessman and state Senate candidate Jefferson Shreve, and 34-year state Sen. Pat Miller.

Contacted by POLITICO, a terse Miller agreed that she was not in the Trump camp and had an abrupt response when asked who she’d back instead.

“I’m supporting Tom Selleck,” she said and quickly hung up.

Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly indicated that Mark Wynn, the 6th District chairman, intended to become a delegate to the national convention.


Poster Comment:

I liked the delegate who was agonizing over whether he'd vote for Satan or Trump. LOL

I don't think we have any Indiana voters here at LF. Too bad.

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#1. To: TooConservative (#0)

Considering the humongous financial storm on our horizon, I honestly do not know why anyone would want to be President at this time. I sure would not want to be in that job when TSHTF!

If I had just a fraction of the money Trump has, I would say screw it, and move my family to a safe location ( where ever that may be ) and ride the storm out.

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't

Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.

There are no Carthaginian terrorists.

President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood

"I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur

Stoner  posted on  2016-04-09   12:22:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: TooConservative (#0)

I liked the delegate who was agonizing over whether he'd vote for Satan or Trump.

For Satan, read Cruz.

Roscoe  posted on  2016-04-09   12:24:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: TooConservative (#0)

It's no news that GOP leadership hates Trump with a passion. That is, in fact, one of Trump's appeals.

Personally, I see it as an example of the establishment only favoring democratic elections among candidates that THEY approve of, ignoring any popular sentiment to the contrary. In essense, they are proving the election/political system is a massive train wreck.

As it is, if Trump doesn't get the nomination for any reason that even appears to be underhanded, even if it isn't, we'll likely see some fireworks in the last half of this year, and the R party will have a serious storm to weather.

Pinguinite  posted on  2016-04-09   12:37:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Pinguinite (#3)

I liked that it illustrated how these party delegates and state party activists and state senate wannabes are part of the mix when it determines who becomes a delegate.

Notice the one guy who said he was letting all Cruz and Kasich delegates through but deep-sixing any Trump supporters.

It mentions that the IN delegates have to pony up $2,000 each. Which is why you have to be a total GOP fanboi or want to run for state office to become a delegate. To be a delegate, you have to be a Republican with a capital R. Not some average voter. This is true of delegates in most states.

And there are going to be a couple of Trump supporters who will slip through because they were past state party chairmen or big donors to the Indiana GOP.

I also loved that some of them hope to put Mitch Daniels on the convention ballot. Evaluated fairly, I think Mitch Daniels is the finest governor in the history of the Republican party. Another Princeton brainy type, he's as smart as Cruz. And he's half-Syrian by blood, if you like your ethnic diversity candidates. I was very disappointed when he didn't run in 2012.

I also notice that Trump's ground operation is just finally going to arrive this weekend, well after the delegate process is underway. Day late, dollar short.

As it is, if Trump doesn't get the nomination for any reason that even appears to be underhanded, even if it isn't, we'll likely see some fireworks in the last half of this year, and the R party will have a serious storm to weather.

I know the Trump supporters think this argument helps them but it doesn't. If there will be a total shitstorm whether the convention picks Trump or Cruz, they might as well go with Cruz in the hope that he won't drag the Senate candidates down with him or endanger the House majority.

The GOPe thinks that Trump will certainly lose them the Senate and might even lose them the House. A disaster for Republicans all the way down to the local level, as big as the Goldwater debacle in '64.

So if Trump is a mega-disaster, they'll just choose to take Cruz who will only be somewhat unpopular. They can even pretend he doesn't exist, just as long as he doesn't drag the entire party to defeat.

You can't really think that threatening riots, or to beat up convention delegates, or whatnot actually makes the GOP more likely to give in. The GOP is not going to succumb to terroristic demands like that, especially not from the likes of Donald Trump (Democrat until 2009) and his perverted Nixonian henchman, Roger Stone.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-09   12:52:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Stoner (#1) (Edited)

Considering the humongous financial storm on our horizon, I honestly do not know why anyone would want to be President at this time.

Because whoever happens to be living in the WH when the system goes down will be crowned as the new King.

Nobody blames Kings for anything unless they want to lose their heads.

BOYCOTT PAYPAL AND CLOSE YOUR PP ACCOUNTS NOW! ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO DO SO,TOO!

ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION!

Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)

American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.

sneakypete  posted on  2016-04-09   13:33:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: sneakypete (#5)

If I had just a fraction of the money Trump has, I would say screw it, and move my family to a safe location ( where ever that may be ) and ride the storm out.

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't

Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.

There are no Carthaginian terrorists.

President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood

"I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur

Stoner  posted on  2016-04-09   13:41:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: TooConservative (#4)

It mentions that the IN delegates have to pony up $2,000 each. Which is why you have to be a total GOP fanboi or want to run for state office to become a delegate. To be a delegate, you have to be a Republican with a capital R. Not some average voter. This is true of delegates in most states.

Which perhaps explains why the GOP is so out of touch with a growing segment of Americans who are too busy working for a living to get heavily involved in politics, and are just PO'd.

I know the Trump supporters think this argument helps them but it doesn't.

It's not an argument TC. It's simply an observation, and one that is rather widespread.

If there will be a total shitstorm whether the convention picks Trump or Cruz, they might as well go with Cruz in the hope that he won't drag the Senate candidates down with him or endanger the House majority.

"Endanger" you say? What does that word mean, actually, in the context of an institution that is half responsible for the destruction of the United States? Trillions of dollars of debt, taxation that is in fact depressing the birth rate of natural born Americans, a wrecked economy, bailouts for corrupt wall street? Tell me, TC, what difference it makes if the R's are in control or not?

It makes NO difference at all. The cheering for either the D or R party is a lot like cheering for the pro sports team, and has just as much effect. Just as loyalty to one city team shifts to another when someone moves across country, loyalty to a party calling itself one name or another is petty. Completely petty. And you don't get that?

Honestly, I think the people who are most passionate about Trump's campaign are the people who hate him. Not that those who like him aren't but when I see you post article after article about Trump, and the verbage comparing Trump to Satan...

Trump represents Pissed Off America. And anyone who's angry at Trump is angry at Pissed Off America too. In Romney's statement where he declined to enter the race as Trump was really taking the lead, that was really apparently to me in his message as he preached about how good things were for Americans. Basically, it was "shut up and stop your griping. You have no idea how lucky you assholes are for being in the USA. You OWE us for taking care of you so STFU". That was it, paraphrasing.

If it's not Trump, I really don't care who wins. Hillary is fine. Hell, if she accelerates the demise of the USA, then that will piss off even more Americans faster so maybe that's a good thing. You can have your institution with the trademark "R" next too it and worry about how many people have that label stuck on them sitting in congress continuing on with more taxes, more spending, more wars, more corruption and more bailouts for wall street. If that makes you happy, then that's good for you. Call yourself a Republican if you want, but don't pretend that Republicans are good for the American people. They aren't. They are a toxic breed, just like the D institution.

Trump is, by all appearances, a welcome breath of fresh air. The fed gov needs a badly overdue shake up and house cleaning, and Trump is the only one who might make it happen.

Pinguinite  posted on  2016-04-09   14:14:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: Stoner (#6)

If I had just a fraction of the money Trump has, I would say screw it, and move my family to a safe location ( where ever that may be ) and ride the storm out.

Yeah,but you don't have a ego the size of the solar system,either.

BOYCOTT PAYPAL AND CLOSE YOUR PP ACCOUNTS NOW! ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO DO SO,TOO!

ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION!

Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)

American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.

sneakypete  posted on  2016-04-09   14:42:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Pinguinite (#7)

If it's not Trump, I really don't care who wins. Hillary is fine. Hell, if she accelerates the demise of the USA, then that will piss off even more Americans faster so maybe that's a good thing.

I'm almost to the point where you are. Not quite there yet,but close.

There can be no question that the sooner the revolution starts the fewer people that will die in it,but I still don't want to see it get to that point if it can be avoided by anything short of total surrender to fascist globalism.

I do disagree about Trump the Chump being a breath of fresh air. Swamp gas,maybe,but not fresh air. The indisputable fact to ME is his entrance and grandstanding in the race has kept any legitimate conservative that may have had a chance from entering the race,so I cut him no slack anywhere and don't care what,if anything,happens to him.

BOYCOTT PAYPAL AND CLOSE YOUR PP ACCOUNTS NOW! ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO DO SO,TOO!

ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION!

Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)

American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.

sneakypete  posted on  2016-04-09   14:48:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: Pinguinite (#7)

It makes NO difference at all. The cheering for either the D or R party is a lot like cheering for the pro sports team, and has just as much effect. Just as loyalty to one city team shifts to another when someone moves across country, loyalty to a party calling itself one name or another is petty. Completely petty. And you don't get that?

Actually, I don't see how it ever makes any difference for you. You've lived overseas for many years and don't seem to plan to return to the States.

Not that it matters anyway since you don't vote absentee.

These arguments about letting things get worse so they can get better (lose to Hitlery) hold no water. Historically, when a country moves Left and liberty is diminished it is very hard to ever recover those lost freedoms. Even what we have is still special and precious. I see no reason to throw the dice with Trump when we have far more reliable candidates available to us.

And I'm convinced Trump simply cannot win. Ever. He's radioactive with the indies, the young people, many women, all the minorities. The polling looks truly awful. Of course, I can't stand Trump (about as repulsive to me as McStain was). So maybe I do find it much easier to believe that so many others must hate his guts the same way I do.

But then all the Trump fanbois love him and kiss his ass no matter what he does or says. Vannity is a prime example. It's embarrassing to watch some of the FNC hacks doing all kinds of contortions to try to Trumpsplain away the things the Trump does and says.

Trump is a fatally flawed candidate, apparently incapable of study and preparation. You only nominate a guy like that if you want to lose the election.

And even if he has one-third of the party backing him like a personal cult, that doesn't mean he gets to be the nominee if two-thirds of the party doesn't want him or thinks he will lose. One-third is not a majority.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-09   15:15:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: TooConservative (#10)

Actually, I don't see how it ever makes any difference for you. You've lived overseas for many years and don't seem to plan to return to the States.

Not that it matters anyway since you don't vote absentee.

Part of the reason I'm where I am is because of the FU'd state of the USA. But attempting to marginalize my opinion because of where I choose to live is disrespectful to me.

I see no reason to throw the dice with Trump when we have far more reliable candidates available to us.

Given the big picture, I cannot fathom why a quality of "reliable" would, by itself, make one candidate a better choice.

And I'm convinced Trump simply cannot win. Ever. He's radioactive with the indies, the young people, many women, all the minorities. The polling looks truly awful.

Trump has appeal on many cross sections of society. It's even apparent here on LF. Yes, he has his work cut out for him in presentation. But though arrogant, he's not stupid. He's a highly skilled businessman and whatever changes he needs to make to come off better publicly, he's smart enough to recognize. Whether he can do so is a question.

But then all the Trump fanbois love him and kiss his ass no matter what he does or says. Vannity is a prime example. It's embarrassing to watch some of the FNC hacks doing all kinds of contortions to try to Trumpsplain away the things the Trump does and says.

Trump is a real guy, not a politician. And real people goof up. They also change their minds sometimes. The ones who cannot do that in the face of overwhelming reality are the ones controlled. Trump is not controlled.

Besides... there's no real alternative. Only fake alternatives. In empty suits.

Pinguinite  posted on  2016-04-09   15:37:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: Pinguinite (#11)

Trump is a real guy, not a politician.

Sure, just your average workin' man casino and resort tycoon.

There is nothing about Trump or his associates that ever comes close to average Americans. He lives in his little tycoon bubble in his penthouse and rarely leaves Manhattan. Because he doesn't really like it elsewhere.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-09   15:42:42 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: TooConservative (#12)

Sure, just your average workin' man casino and resort tycoon.

There is nothing about Trump or his associates that ever comes close to average Americans.

He didn't say average. He said real.

Nothing average about Trump. Far above average.

You're average.

A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-09   15:58:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: Pinguinite (#11)

I see no reason to throw the dice with Trump when we have far more reliable candidates available to us. Given the big picture, I cannot fathom why a quality of "reliable" would, by itself, make one candidate a better choice.

He likes Romney. He likes Romneys flip flops.

He is just covetous of Trump. Not as covetous as the sneak.

A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-09   16:00:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: Stoner, TooConservative, All (#1)

Considering the humongous financial storm on our horizon, I honestly do not know why anyone would want to be President at this time. I sure would not want to be in that job when TSHTF!

Neither does Trump. He never has.

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-09   16:00:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: SOSO (#15)

Neither does Trump. He never has.

I'm not sure if you are ignorant of lying. You're not stupid.

A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-09   16:03:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: Pinguinite, TooConservative (#11)

But attempting to marginalize my opinion because of where I choose to live is disrespectful to me.

You can run but you can't hide.

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-09   16:04:42 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: A K A Stone (#16)

I'm not sure if you are ignorant o{r} lying.

Neither, just being real about things.

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-09   16:05:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#19. To: SOSO (#18)

'm not sure if you are ignorant o{r} lying. Neither, just being real about things.

Ok it's ignorance.

A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-09   16:06:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: A K A Stone (#19)

Ok it's ignorance.

Call truth what you will, it is still truth.

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-09   16:09:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: Pinguinite (#7)

Trump represents Pissed Off America.

I'm pissed off and I think Trump's a con man.

A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them.

ConservingFreedom  posted on  2016-04-09   16:42:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#22. To: ConservingFreedom (#21)

I'm pissed off and I think Trump's a con man.

You're entitled to your opinion.

A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-09   16:44:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#23. To: SOSO (#17)

I thought it was interesting that the article described the machinations of the district/county chairman and the insider politics of a state GOP party apparatus. But this is who the GOP delegates are and how they get chosen. It works this way in nearly all the states.

True party hacks of one flavor or another. And they pay for going to the convention too. Not really your average voters at all.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-09   20:17:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#24. To: All, Stoner, Roscoe, Pinguinite, sneakypete, tomder55, nolu chan, A K A Stone, ConservingFreedom, SOSO (#0)

HotAir did their own recap and added one more Big Thing: a likely Mike Pence endorsement. This doesn't rate a thread of its own but it does paint a broader picture than this thread's original article.

Some are speculating that a big Indiana win along with Cruz's delegate ground game could give him the 1237 delegates needed for a first-ballot convention victory. It seems to me that Cruz would have to get the 3-per-state party honcho delegate votes and score well in PA's insane delegate primary as well. I admit that that seems like a long shot to me at this point but far from impossible.

Cruz getting the jump on delegates in Indiana too?

Ed Morrissey

Most of the focus for the presidential primaries in both parties goes to New York, the next event on the schedule and the second-largest basket of delegates in the sweepstakes. On the GOP side, the polling shows a lopsided contest, with Donald Trump trouncing Ted Cruz and gaining a majority in every survey since the beginning of March. The leftover attention after New York generally falls to California, the biggest prize, and Pennsylvania, where most delegates will be unbound at the convention anyway.

Hardly anyone has paid attention to Indiana, which holds its primary on May 3rd and has 57 Republican delegates up for grabs. Pollsters have done no work in Indiana at all, at least according to the curation at Real Clear Politics. Given its Rust Belt identity and blue-collar composition, Trump and John Kasich should both have some resonance, but Cruz may pre-empt them both if the convention goes to a second ballot. Politico’s Kyle Cheney asserts that Trump is “getting trounced,” at least in the 27 delegates chosen at the caucuses today, and almost certainly in the other 27 chosen by the state Republican committee a week later:
Indiana GOP insiders are working to engineer slates of delegates — three from each of nine congressional districts — that will turn their backs on Trump at a contested convention in July. Another 27 will be elected at a state committee meeting next week.

Indiana’s delegates will be bound to the results of the state’s May 3 primary on the first vote in Cleveland, and Trump is expected to be competitive in that contest. (There is no current public polling of the state, but several GOP leaders suggested he’d be competitive in at least a couple of the state’s nine Congressional districts.) But if Trump fails to clinch the nomination, they’ll be free to vote their conscience — and that means a rapid rejection of Trump. The state’s Republican national committeeman, John Hammond, has vocally called to reject Trump as well.

That would mark just another blow to Trump’s chances, should the convention go to a second ballot as expected. Though he’s won more votes and state primaries than rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich, Trump has failed spectacularly to win separate delegate selection battles to his better-organized rivals. Though in most cases, he’s lost because of Cruz’s superior organization, Indiana appears to be a break from the norm. Most of the hostility to Trump there is homegrown.

Unclear? The primary is in effect a straw poll of Indiana voters, and delegates will be bound to that outcome on the first ballot no matter who they personally prefer. After that, delegates get to choose their own candidate. That makes delegate election in the caucuses and by committees a crucial part of organizing for victory — a crucial part that the Trump campaign has neglected until now.

And now it’s too late, at least in Indiana. The deadline to file as a candidate for the delegate slots passed on March 15th, Cheney notes, which means that Trump will have to see if he can woo any of the already-registered candidates. On top of that, the process in Indiana requires a hefty fee of $2000, which means that not too many of these will be casual first-timers but serious party activists.

In fact, some of them might be interested in other candidates than Cruz or Kasich, too:
“I am supporting the Draft Mitch Daniels for President at the convention,” said Nick Barbknecht, a candidate for alternate from the state’s 2nd District, who is also the district GOP vice chairman. Dunn and John agreed that they’d support a Daniels candidacy if it emerged.

Er … good luck on that idea. Another governor might have a little more impact on the popular vote, however:
Gov. Mike Pence revealed Friday that he’s been contacted by representatives of the three Republican presidential candidates as a prelude to possible endorsement ahead of Indiana’s May 3 primary election.

Pence so far is remaining mum on whether he favors former Gary casino owner Donald Trump, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, or Ohio Gov. John Kasich for the GOP nomination, but said he may announce his choice in the weeks ahead.

“I haven’t ruled it out,” Pence said.

The first-term Republican, who is running unopposed next month for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, seemed excited that Indiana actually could matter in this year’s presidential primaries for Republicans and Democrats.

“That hasn’t happened too often in my lifetime, and frankly I think it’s going to be great for Hoosiers and it’s going to be even better for these candidates because Hoosiers are people with strong hearts and strong opinions,” Pence said.

All three candidates will lobby heavily for Pence’s endorsement. If Trump doesn’t get it, we’ll see soon enough whether he learned from his Wisconsin debacle, or whether he lashes out at the still-popular Republican governor. Kasich would seem the most likely candidate for Pence’s imprimatur; they’re both governors, both work in Rust Belt electorates with similar challenges, and both served in Congress, although their tenures did not overlap (Kasich left after the 2000 election that put Pence in the House). However, Cruz has more momentum and better organization, and Pence might not want his endorsement to have no impact on the outcome as it might with Kasich — especially since Kasich performed so badly in Wisconsin, another similarly-situated state.

If Cruz can convince Pence to endorse him, then the primary vote may make the second-ballot delegate considerations moot.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-10   9:13:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#25. To: TooConservative (#24)

HotAir

That's as far as I needed to get.

Roscoe  posted on  2016-04-10   11:18:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#26. To: TooConservative (#24)

Some are speculating that a big Indiana win along with Cruz's delegate ground game could give him the 1237 delegates needed for a first-ballot convention victory.

I wonder what trick the RNC would try to pull off to get a brokered convention if that happens.

They NEED a brokered convention so they can dictate to the winner who the VP will be,as well as some cabinet positions. IMO,they don't give a damn about the future of the country,but you can bet your bippy they care about the future of their gravy trains and power.

BOYCOTT PAYPAL AND CLOSE YOUR PP ACCOUNTS NOW! ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO DO SO,TOO!

ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION!

Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)

American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.

sneakypete  posted on  2016-04-10   14:24:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#27. To: sneakypete (#26) (Edited)

They NEED a brokered convention so they can dictate to the winner who the VP will be,as well as some cabinet positions.

Party leaders and major donors have other ways to exert influence.

After the damage inflicted on the party by Trump's reckless campaign, I think they would focus on winning and nothing. Barring that, making the best ticket to keep turnout up to hold on to the Senate and keep their House majority. And those two things amount to the same thing.

It's Trump winning that causes the major headaches. First off, he has no real ground campaign anywhere in the country. Apparently he thinks the party machine can just wave a magic wand and create all the political machinery for him. Who the hell would want to work for him? You have over 20,000 appointees, a cabinet, ambassadors, etc.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-10   15:05:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#28. To: tooconservative (#10)

I can't stand Trump (about as repulsive to me as McStain was).

But then all the Trump fanbois love him and kiss his ass no matter what he does or says. Vannity is a prime example. It's embarrassing to watch some of the FNC hacks doing all kinds of contortions to try to Trumpsplain away the things the Trump does and says.

Trump is a fatally flawed candidate, apparently incapable of study and preparation.

You only nominate a guy like that if you want to lose the election.

The
real
thing

snobs
like
you

don't
get
it

maga
boris

If you ... don't use exclamation points --- you should't be typeing ! Commas - semicolons - question marks are for girlie boys !

BorisY  posted on  2017-01-22   1:03:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#29. To: BorisY (#28)

Trump is a fatally flawed candidate, apparently incapable of study and preparation.

You only nominate a guy like that if you want to lose the election.

Thanks for the trip down memory lane. Toocuckservative sure was proven wrong.

Non auro, sed ferro, recuperando est patria

nativist nationalist  posted on  2017-01-22   2:07:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#30. To: BorisY, pink pussyhat (#28)

BorisY pussyhat

The D&R Party is a suicide cult!

Hondo68  posted on  2017-01-22   3:59:37 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#31. To: nativist nationalist (#29)

" Toocuckservative sure was proven wrong. "

Yep, along with a bunch of others that thought they were oh so smart! And they were not!

BTW, where is Toocuckservative ?

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.

There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn't an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag... We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language... and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people."Theodore Roosevelt-1907.

I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur

Stoner  posted on  2017-01-22   7:22:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#32. To: Stoner (#31)

"BTW, where is Toocuckservative ?"

Hiding. In shame.

misterwhite  posted on  2017-01-22   11:13:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#33. To: misterwhite (#32)

" "BTW, where is Toocuckservative ?"

Hiding. In shame. "

He should.

If he had any honor, he would jump in front of a speeding train, LOL !

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.

There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn't an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag... We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language... and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people."Theodore Roosevelt-1907.

I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur

Stoner  posted on  2017-01-22   13:07:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#34. To: Stoner (#33)

He came back on another thread. I was wrong. He has no shame.

misterwhite  posted on  2017-01-22   17:18:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#35. To: misterwhite (#34)

" He came back on another thread. I was wrong. He has no shame. "

LOL !

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.

There can be no divided allegiance here. Any man who says he is an American, but something else also, isn't an American at all. We have room for but one flag, the American flag... We have room for but one language here, and that is the English language... and we have room for but one sole loyalty and that is a loyalty to the American people."Theodore Roosevelt-1907.

I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur

Stoner  posted on  2017-01-23   6:34:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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