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politics and politicians Title: [Arguments for Trump's Electability Are] Weak and Getting Weaker Yet the electability argument against Trump is hardening, fast. He has a 67 percent unfavorable rating (per the Washington Post/ABC News poll), which would be the highest ever recorded for a major-party nominee, and a net favorable rating of minus-39 among white women and minus-31 among independents. Trump's numbers aren't just bad; they're the stuff of nightmares. When you add up all of the data, there are four reasons to suspect Trump's chances in the general election are incredibly slim. But the Trump-wins-by-turning-out-white-Republicans theory breaks down fatally when you look at where Trump is with every other group. In order to claw his way into the poor position he's in with white voters, Trump has cheesed off every other demographic group: He's minus-53 with self-described moderates; minus-62 with voters age 18 to 34; minus-71 with Hispanics. In order to beat Hillary Clinton, Trump has to outdo the Romney 2012 numbers. But even if he does better among white voters—and right now it looks like he'll do worse—it does no good if he can't stay at Romney's level among other groups. And Trump is poised to do much worse than Romney with just about everyone else. How is Trump going to challenge in those places when he has to defend spots like Utah and Mississippi, which are supposed to be gimmes for a Republican? Numbers don't move overnight. It took Trump two months to go from 5 percent in Republican polls to 30 percent. It took him seven months just to build another 10 percent of support among Republicans—the group most inclined to be open-minded about him. That shows you how hard it is for a candidate to convert marginal voters who aren't naturally part of their coalition. And in the process of finding those 10 additional points of support, Trump alienated a great number of other voters. So even if it were theoretically possible for Trump to build a coalition to beat Clinton, everyone now knows who Trump is, everyone has an opinion about him—and he only has 30 weeks to pry people away from his would-be opponent. If Trump is the nominee he is either going to win it on the final day of the primaries or at a contested convention. Either way, it will be by one of the slimmest margins in history and it will signal that Trump failed to revolutionize the Republican party. Destroy the party? That's a real possibility. Take it over? Certainly. But in order to transform a party, a candidate has to offer a new program and build support among a growing number of the party's voters while also bringing the party's elites and organizational forces into the fold. Trump tried to do this initially. He has failed utterly. Once Trump began winking about violence at the Republican convention, and his on-again, off-again capo Roger Stone started talking about helping Trump supporters visit convention delegates at their hotel rooms to "discuss" matters with them, it was clear Trump no longer had any interest in transforming the party. He wants the Republican nomination, and he is perfectly happy to brutalize the party to get it. There will be no consensus building. Only submission and capitulation. That's his prerogative, of course. Trump owes the GOP just as much as the GOP owes him—which is to say: exactly nothing. But as an electoral matter, this change is important. Because all of the scenarios for Trump's success in November were predicated on his being capable of uniting the Republican party. And not only does he not seem capable of this task—he does not even seem interested in it. So clear that soon enough, even Trump's supporters may have to confront them. Poster Comment: This piece will appear in the Standard's print edition in 9 days. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 15.
#1. To: TooConservative (#0)
Trump can't get the nomination! Well ... if he gets the nomination he can't beat Hillary. Well ... if he wins he can't govern. Well ... he'll never get a second term. And on it goes. Blah, blah, blah.
If his numbers are still so disastrous and he has 1236 delegates or less, he will never be the nominee. Period. The party faithful (which is who the delegates are) would take Cruz on the second ballot even if they think he will lose. Because Cruz will at least have some chance and Trump would damage the party and its reputation for a generation. Trump has made himself utterly toxic to the general electorate, to the indy voters, to women. This is why he cancelled his other campaign events and has to stay home to try to secure his home state. Like you, Trump believes he can offend people as often as he wants and there is no price to be paid. But there is. I increasingly agree with sneakypete that Trump is a Xlinton operative, just like Perot was. Trump even echoes all the old Reform Party positions (which is no surprise because Trump flirted with becoming the Reform Party nominee in 2000 and 2004).
I think that you may have heard that first here. In any event, Trump has already killed the REP's party chances in November. The only question is if the DRats will grab the Senate as well.
I started posting that the day he said he was running,and IIRC,this was the first place I posted it. In any event, Trump has already killed the REP's party chances in November. Which is why he will be getting a pay off from the Bubba's. The Ego Boost may be more important to him than the money,but the Clinton's only care about the end results. The Clinton's are getting what they need out of this,and Trump is getting what he needs. Neither gives a damn about the country or another else not a "Mini-Me".
#20. To: sneakypete (#15)
I started posting that the day he said he was running,and IIRC,this was the first place I posted it. OK, you win. I'll take second prize - which would be only 4 years of Hillary.
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