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Title: GOP Rule 40, it's worth a closer look
Source: [None]
URL Source: [None]
Published: Apr 8, 2016
Author: nolu chan
Post Date: 2016-04-08 12:54:27 by nolu chan
Keywords: None
Views: 3584
Comments: 44

GOP Rule 40, it's worth a closer look

nolu chan
April 8, 2016

https://cdn.gop.com/docs/2012_RULES_Adopted.pdf

RULE NO. 40

Nominations

(a) In making the nominations for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States and voting thereon, the roll of the states shall be called separately in each case; provided, however, that if there is only one candidate for nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be required.

(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.

(c) The total time of the nominating speech and seconding speeches for any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States shall not exceed fifteen (15) minutes.

(d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall announce the votes for each candidate whose name was presented in accordance with the provisions of paragraph (b) of this rule. Before the convention adjourns sine die, the chairman of the convention shall declare the candidate nominated by the Republican Party for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States.

(e) If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention.

- - - - - - - - - -

The Rules are written by the Rules Committee, made up of delegates. Delegates are generally party insider tools. The Rules may be left subject to interpretation to say precisely the opposite of what they appear to import on their face. Rule 40(b) merits attention.

(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.

Each candidate shall demonstrate the support support of a majority of 8 states. That does not require that they have won such support in a primary or caucus.

Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives....

One cannot look outside this rule to any other rule when interpreting Rule 40.

to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states

One need not earn the "support" of the delegates in a primary or caucus. One just needs a signed certificate from the delegate that he or she supports you.

The delegate may be bound to vote for Trump or Cruz on the first ballot, but the way this is written, the bound delegate can sign a certificate confirming he or she supports Paul Ryan, even though he or she is bound to vote for someone else on the first ballot. Paul Ryan or John Kasich could be placed in nomination on the first ballot.

Note also Rule 1(b):

(b) For the purposes of this rule and all other rules, "state" or "states" shall be taken to include American Samoa, the District of Columbia, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, except in Rule No. 14, and unless the context in which the word "state" or "states" is used clearly makes such inclusion inappropriate.

The support of six "states" can be confirmed by certificates from the majority of delegates from (1) American Somoa, (2) District of Columbia, (3) Guam (4) Northern Marianas Islands (5) Puerto Rico, and (6) the Virgin Islands.

Acquiring the requisite certificates of the delegates of those 6 "states" and any other 2 states, would meet the requirement to place Paul Ryan's name in nomination.

This Rule may be amended prior to the convention.

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#4. To: nolu chan (#0)

This Rule may be amended prior to the convention.

At present, there are zero rules for the 2016 convention.

The rules only exist once the convention rules committee meets and determines them. The 8-state version of Rule 40 didn't exist prior to 2012 because in 2008 and earlier, it was a 5-state rule. They did the 8-state version because the Romney delegates on the convention rules committee wanted to keep Ron Paul from a primetime speech because he wouldn't endorse Romney.

Of course, the rules committees tend to keep the same rules from convention to convention but they certainly don't have to.

I think your scenario is wildly hypothetical. It might be possible if, for instance, both Trump's negatives went even higher (hard to imagine) and Cruz did have a major sex scandal.

Otherwise, I think it's either Trump or Cruz. The party is unlikely to accept someone who didn't even run. In part because everyone who had any chance to win the WH in the GOP did run. That's how we had 17 candidates and also how Trump managed to weave between their dividing the vote to end up as the frontrunner. And others like Romney came close to running but then specifically rejected it. So the GOP has run out of people to run for the 2016 nomination. Literally. There's nobody left.

And you don't take into account state party rules and laws that may affect delegates. Generally, these are written to say that a bound delegate is truly bound. And nothing else is allowed. Not as long as they are still bound.

It is a matter of sequence. By the time a majority of delegates do become unbound (and capable of swearing out a certificate to support someone else), it is already too late to enter another name into consideration under regular order of business for that convention. You have to have the required 8 (or 5) states when the convention begins. And that will guarantee that your name will appear on every ballot held by that convention. Only if the convention becomes deadlocked (typically after the tenth ballot) would you see any attempts to introduce someone not already on the convention ballot (Trump and Cruz).

And neither Trump nor Cruz has any incentive to allow any change to this. Trump's crew is too disorganized but Cruz won't miss nailing this down.

So...interesting hypothetical but Ain't Gonna Happen.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-08   13:16:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: TooConservative, nolu chan (#4)
(Edited)

shouldn't be a problem for Trump . Isn't he the world's best negotiator ? He can persuade delegates to him by the force of his will convincing them that he is the candidate that best represents the party...( and offering them lifetime passes to Mar-a-Lago with transportation on Trump's private jet).

"If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato

tomder55  posted on  2016-04-08   13:41:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: nolu chan, All (#0)

The delegate may be bound to vote for Trump or Cruz on the first ballot, but the way this is written, the bound delegate can sign a certificate confirming he or she supports Paul Ryan, even though he or she is bound to vote for someone else on the first ballot. Paul Ryan or John Kasich could be placed in nomination on the first ballot.

Politicians are not slimy, double dealing, two faced lying snakes for no reason. Are the words "and f*ck what the little people want" in the rules? You think it couldn't be worse but then there is the DRat process, including their "supper delegates".

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-08   13:59:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: tomder55 (#5)

He can persuade delegates to him by the force of his will convincing them that he is the candidate that best represents the party...( and offering them lifetime passes to Mar-a-Lago with transportation on Trump's private jet).

I wouldn't put it past Trump, perhaps deploying Stone with a 100K limit per delegate to round up 100 delegates. That would be $10M. But I think Trump is just too damned cheap for that.

Keep in mind, there are no laws forbidding buying delegates with cash. Not in any state that I know of. I would guess you can't buy state party officials that way though. But regular delegates? I think you can.

OTOH, Cruz has quite a coalition of tycoons behind him. I don't think they'd let Trump outbid them. Adelson and the Kochs in particular. Trump claims he's worth $10B (Forbes says less than $5B). Adelson has $35B. The Kochs have $80B. Then you get to the other little tycoons, like the Ricketts family of Ameritrade or the Mormon clan behind Mariott hotels. So I don't think Trump can outbid the other major tycoons and I don't think Trump can get his few buddies like Carl Icahn to invest.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-08   14:03:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: All, tomder55, nolu chan, SOSO, sneakypete, Vicomte13, A K A Stone, misterwhite, Pericles (#7)

Let's review some high points of Delegate Math For Dummies in recent RedState coverage.

World-class:

New, ‘improved’ Team Trump utterly messes up the delegate wrangling process in Washington State.

So, how has Paul Manafort demonstrated his keen delegate wrangling mojo? …Well, let’s put it this way.

  • Good: Team Trump sent out an email blast to loyal Trump supporters encouraging them to go sign up to be potential Trump delegates in Washington State. Yay!
  • Bad: Well, they mixed up the location a little, and sent that email blast to Trump supporters in Washington, DC. Boo!
  • TRUMP: …and the deadline to sign up for being a delegate in Washington State was two days ago. Dur!
. . . Out of more than 70 people vying for delegate slots [at the Washington State 5th Legislative District GOP caucus], only about a half dozen or so are for Trump.

[snip]

And by the end of the balloting, Cruz supporters have taken every single delegate spot. Forty-one of them are heading to the state convention. Not one Trump supporter made it through. . . .

Trump doesn't dare leave NYC but Ted is cruisin' to Cali.

Trump Cancels California Trip; Retreats to New York

Signs are mounting that the Trump campaign realizes that they may be in serious trouble in New York. It’s almost inevitable that Trump will win New York, and it may well be the first state that he actually reaches a majority in (although that is far from certain). However, whereas the campaign had previously assumed that they would sweep all of New York’s 95 delegates, they now realize that New York’s bizarre voter registration system combined with their yet more bizarre method of selecting delegates means Cruz and Kasich might well poach anywhere from 20-40 delegates in New York on April 19th.

Very luxurious:

George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York

Full blown panic has hit the Donald Trump campaign. Yesterday there was a low level palace coup within the Trump campaign that saw the vicious, girl-punching elf, Corey Lewandowski, shunted aside in favor of an aging Establishment fixer with strong ties to Vladimir Putin and the Russian mob. But that isn't the worse news. Donald Trump is on the cusp of having his ass handed to him in New York.

As I've posted previously, the state-wide polling in New York is disinformation. First, most delegates are awarded based on Congressional District. So there are actually 28 separate races going on in New York, one at state level and 27 district races. This means that winning a mere handful of votes in The Bronx, where 11,000 can put you over 50%, is actually better than winning 90,000 votes in a large district that gets you 40+% of the vote. Secondly, Trump's usual base of voters, conservative-ish Democrats and independents, are functionally barred from voting unless they changed their voter registration before October 9.

To make matters worse, Trump needs to pull about 85 delegates out of New York to have a prayer of avoiding a contested convention. That requires him to break 50% in all but six of New York's congressional districts and win the remainder. The Trump campaign knows that and they know that they aren't in great shape to make that happen. In the past two days, Trump has cancelled an appearance at the Colorado State GOP convention and he has cancelled campaign stops in California, all to focus on New York.

The classiest evah:

Trump has No Campaign Infrastructure in Remaining Primary States

Roger Stone, the former senior adviser to Donald Trump who left the campaign last November claims that Trump’s campaign has virtually no infrastructure in the remaining primary states. Stone said Trump’s huge “landslide loss” in Wisconsin should be a warning that the campaign needs to be better organized in states like Pennsylvania, Maryland and Indiana:

Look, Trump’s campaign has been fueled, from the beginning, with these hot button issues and an extraordinary communications-based strategy, where you utilize these huge rallies, the incredible media coverage they have generated, plus the high-profile debates, plus — give Trump credit — any interview he could do, as many interviews as he could do to reach as many voters he can reach.

That has worked. Up until now.

More like up until Utah, but yeah. Stone also suggested the Donald’s campaign has been run by amateurs, revealing that the same woman who ran Trump’s campaign operation in Wisconsin “previously ran Oklahoma for Trump” and had zero experience running any type of political campaign. Stone went on to say that was something he saw again and again.

This confirms and explains the burgeoning discord in the Trump campaign reported by Moe Lane. That discord quickly escalated into an internal team Trump civil war against the controversial campaign manager Corey Lewandowki, as streiff reported. The Trump campaign has never been accused of being a highly organized and smoothly functioning organization

Finally Stone talked about the problems the disorganized Trump campaign will have as states elect the delegates they’ll send to the Republican National Convention.

Now you move to a series of states like Colorado, Wyoming, and Arizona [which] should be watched very carefully. Those become hand-to-hand combat at state conventions or state committee meetings, where once again the Trump people have built no infrastructure.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-08   14:48:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: TooConservative (#4)

At present, there are zero rules for the 2016 convention.

The rules only exist once the convention rules committee meets and determines them. The 8-state version of Rule 40 didn't exist prior to 2012 because in 2008 and earlier, it was a 5-state rule. They did the 8-state version because the Romney delegates on the convention rules committee wanted to keep Ron Paul from a primetime speech because he wouldn't endorse Romney.

No, that is Kasich/Cruz bullshit.

https://cdn.gop.com/docs/2012_RULES_Adopted.pdf

RULE NO. 42

Temporary Rules

Upon the adoption of the report of the Convention Committee on Rules and Order of Business, Rule Nos. 26-42 shall constitute the Standing Rules for this convention and the temporary rules for the next convention.

The existing rules adopted in 2012 remain in effect as the temporary rules for the 2016 convention until they are replaced.

nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-08   15:52:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: nolu chan (#9)

The existing rules adopted in 2012 remain in effect as the temporary rules for the 2016 convention until they are replaced.

But they are always replaced.

The only relevant portion of the holdover rules from the previous convention is the selection and process of the rules committee itself. And they are only bound by those rules until their first meeting.

I think my description is more accurate.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-08   15:56:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: A K A Stone (#1)

Has Cruz won a majority of the delegates in 8 states?

No.

Cruz has 6 majority delegate states and is expected to win a majority in 2 more, e.g., MT and SD.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/

Cruz:

ID -- 20/32
ME -- 12/23
KS -- 24/40
TX -- 104/155
UT -- 40/40
WI -- 36/42

- - - - - - - - - -

AK -- 12/28
AL -- 13/50
AR -- 15/40
AS -- 0/9
AZ -- 0/58
DC -- 0/19
FL -- 0/99
GA -- 17/76
GU -- 0/9
KY - 15/46
HI -- 7/19
IA -- 8/30
IL -- 9/69
LA -- 18/46
MA -- 4/42
MI -- 17/59
MN -- 13/38
MO -- 15/52
MP -- 0/9
MS -- 15/40
NC -- 27/72
ND -- 0/28
NH -- 3/23
NV -- 6/30
OH -- 0/66
OK -- 15/43
PR -- 0/23
SC -- 0/50
TN -- 16/58
VA -- 8/49
VI - 1/9
VT -- 0/16

- - - - -

CA
CO
CT
DE
IN
NE
MD
MT
NJ
NM
NY
OR
PA
RI
SD
WA
WV
WY

nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-08   16:29:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: TooConservative (#10)

But they are always replaced.

The tires on my car are always eventually replaced. Until then, I do not say that I have no tires.

I did not describe the rule, I QUOTED it. The 2012 Rules are in effect. Kasich's statement that there are no rules is a fantasy.

nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-08   16:32:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: TooConservative (#8)

George Pataki: Ted Cruz Is Poised To Do Very Well In New York

Full blown panic has hit the Donald Trump campaign. Yesterday there was a low level palace coup within the Trump campaign that saw the vicious, girl-punching elf, Corey Lewandowski, shunted aside in favor of an aging Establishment fixer with strong ties to Vladimir Putin and the Russian mob. But that isn't the worse news. Donald Trump is on the cusp of having his ass handed to him in New York.

As I've posted previously, the state-wide polling in New York is disinformation. First, most delegates are awarded based on Congressional District. So there are actually 28 separate races going on in New York, one at state level and 27 district races. This means that winning a mere handful of votes in The Bronx, where 11,000 can put you over 50%, is actually better than winning 90,000 votes in a large district that gets you 40+% of the vote. Secondly, Trump's usual base of voters, conservative-ish Democrats and independents, are functionally barred from voting unless they changed their voter registration before October 9.

To make matters worse, Trump needs to pull about 85 delegates out of New York to have a prayer of avoiding a contested convention. That requires him to break 50% in all but six of New York's congressional districts and win the remainder. The Trump campaign knows that and they know that they aren't in great shape to make that happen. In the past two days, Trump has cancelled an appearance at the Colorado State GOP convention and he has cancelled campaign stops in California, all to focus on New York.

What did they pay Pataki to prostitute himself to say that shit.

Trump continues to hold a 27 point lead over Kasich, and Cruz jas been run out of town with his 35 point deficit. Trump is over 50%.

Ted Cruz is poised to leave New York and go to California to avert further embarrassment. One event got cancelled, on drew 100 people, and another in far upstate Scotia was in the gym of a private school with 306 students K-12. Cruz filled the place with 500 people.

The Trump campaign knows that and they know that they aren't in great shape to make that happen. In the past two days, Trump has cancelled an appearance at the Colorado State GOP convention and he has cancelled campaign stops in California, all to focus on New York.

Cruz fears returning to the Bronx or any large public forum in NYC. Trump is going to massacre Cruz in New York and put him down like the dog that he is.

Trump doesn't dare leave NYC but Ted is cruisin' to Cali.

And we know why Cruzh is cruisin' to anywhere but NY.

When the going gets tough, Cruz has a Red State asshole, paid by the GOPe to prostitute himself, publish some absurd bullshit while he goes to hide from the Donald and NYC. What a wimp.

nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-08   16:46:34 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: nolu chan (#11)

Cruz has 6 majority delegate states and is expected to win a majority in 2 more, e.g., MT and SD.

Cruz gets CO, WY and NE. He already has ND but they are officially unbound.

Cruz will make his 8 states.

Cruz just got 3 more delegates in CO-5 this afternoon, bringing him to 12 (10 pledged and 2 committed).

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-08   16:49:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: nolu chan (#13)

Cruz has Trump chasing his own tail in NY, his home state.

Cruz will be back but he is laying the basis for future delegate wins and doing more fundraising.

Trump is running scared of underperforming in NY. His negatives are sky-high and opposition to Trump is consolidating behind Cruz. Not that they love Cruz. They just hate Trump's guts, hate everything he's been saying.

What you consider to be Cruz's pandering doesn't actually sell any better when expressed even more extremely by Trump. Those chickens are coming home to roost in NYC for Trump.

They don't have to love Cruz. They just have to act on their loathing for Trumpism.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-08   16:54:34 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: TooConservative (#8)

Roger Stone, the former senior adviser to Donald Trump who left the campaign last November claims that Trump’s campaign has virtually no infrastructure in the remaining primary states.

Why would anyone want to spend the money to finance 50 state election infrastructure when you are running for ego and payoffs before dropping out late?

BOYCOTT PAYPAL AND CLOSE YOUR PP ACCOUNTS NOW! ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO DO SO,TOO!

ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION!

Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)

American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.

sneakypete  posted on  2016-04-08   17:00:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: nolu chan (#9)

All this talk of "rules" is a joke. Trump supporters could care less. If Trump ends up with the most delegates, he deserves the nomination. If he doesn't get it, his supporters will stay home.

End of story.

misterwhite  posted on  2016-04-08   17:00:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: nolu chan (#13)

Blah,blah,blah. Losing in NYC is a positive thing. It's not even America.

BOYCOTT PAYPAL AND CLOSE YOUR PP ACCOUNTS NOW! ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO DO SO,TOO!

ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION!

Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)

American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.

sneakypete  posted on  2016-04-08   17:02:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#19. To: TooConservative (#15) (Edited)

"They just have to act on their loathing for Trumpism."

Ask them why they feel that way and they couldn't tell you. Actually they could, but since their list would be juvenile, petty, full of misconceptions and pathetic, they'd rather stay silent.

Compared to what Trump wants to do with immigration, the military, the VA, trade, jobs, education, etc., what negatives can they possibly come up with that overshadows that?

misterwhite  posted on  2016-04-08   17:10:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: misterwhite (#19)

Compared to what Trump wants to do with immigration, the military, the VA, trade, jobs, education, etc., what negatives can they possibly come up with that overshadows that?

Other than some bluster on these issues that Trump picked up from watching "the shows", no one has any confidence he could act as the executive of the federal government.

He's taken his own companies into bankruptcy multiple times after all.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-08   17:49:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: TooConservative (#20)

"no one has any confidence he could act as the executive of the federal government."

Exactly! Not like ... uh ... wait a minute. Which candidate of either party could act as the executive of the federal government better than Trump?

"He's taken his own companies into bankruptcy multiple times after all."

Trump is a multi-billionaire. Did you forget? Plus, he's the only candidate who has a plan for eliminating the national debt -- just the opposite of bankruptcy.

misterwhite  posted on  2016-04-08   18:03:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#22. To: misterwhite (#21)

Which candidate of either party could act as the executive of the federal government better than Trump?

All of them. Except possibly Sanders.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-08   18:27:04 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#23. To: misterwhite (#21)

he's the only candidate who has a plan for eliminating the national debt -- just the opposite of bankruptcy

I don't get why he wants to take over a bankrupt nation, perhaps he wants to have a firesale

paraclete  posted on  2016-04-08   18:27:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#24. To: TooConservative (#22)

"All of them. Except possibly Sanders."

Yeah. Right. Hillary accomplished so much at the State Department. Congress loves Cruz, so he'll get a lot done there. And Kasich still has only one state -- -- -- his own.

Meanwhile, Trump has built an empire and has a plan. He's setting the agenda, not sticking his finger in the air. He's a natural leader.

misterwhite  posted on  2016-04-08   18:33:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#25. To: paraclete (#23)

"I don't get why he wants to take over a bankrupt nation ..."

He said he wants to fix it. That's why he's running.

misterwhite  posted on  2016-04-08   18:35:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#26. To: misterwhite (#24)

Meanwhile, Trump has built an empire and has a plan. He's setting the agenda, not sticking his finger in the air. He's a natural leader.

Nothing like a fact-free fantasy.

I just don't see what you base it on. Neither does anyone else who doesn't belong to your little Moonie cult.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-08   20:30:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#27. To: TooConservative (#22)

So you do like hillary. Lol

A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-08   21:33:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#28. To: misterwhite (#25) (Edited)

I don't get why he wants to take over a bankrupt nation ..." He said he wants to fix it. That's why he's running.

I know what he has said but how can a man who has had more bankruptcies than baths fix what he doesn't understand?

In order to repay the debt you have to stop spending, if you do that the economy tanks and you have less. If you go the other way and spend the debt increases. There is the bankrupt's way out, default, perhaps this is his solution.

At the moment he is engaged in a money making enterprise encouraging fools to give him money which oddly he doesn't appear to spend on his campaign, perhaps he is building a warchest

paraclete  posted on  2016-04-08   21:45:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#29. To: paraclete, misterwhite (#28)

I know what he has said but how can a man who has had more bankruptcies than baths fix what he doesn't understand?

What you don't understand the con artist Dollar Donald understands bankruptcy quite well. He left other people holding the bag and taking the loss. He will try and do the same with U.S. finances. Ask yourself how much other peoples' money does the U.S. have (i.e. - how much debt does the U.S. owe)? Who are the creditors?

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-08   22:37:34 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#30. To: sneakypete (#18)

Blah,blah,blah. Losing in NYC is a positive thing. It's not even America.

It's 95 delegates.

nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-09   1:12:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#31. To: SOSO (#29)

Ask yourself how much other peoples' money does the U.S. have

the US runs on OPM and yes there are international creditors but the US is not too big to fail because when it comes down to it there is noone big enough to bail in out. you can put up money to stop an economy the size of Greece from failing (defaulting) but not the US. Soveriegn debt becomes soveriegn risk

paraclete  posted on  2016-04-09   1:14:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#32. To: paraclete (#31)

Ask yourself how much other peoples' money does the U.S. have

the US runs on OPM and yes there are international creditors but the US is not too big to fail because when it comes down to it there is noone big enough to bail in out. you can put up money to stop an economy the size of Greece from failing (defaulting) but not the US. Soveriegn debt becomes soveriegn risk

That's my point. Trump knows how to play the bankruptcy game quite well. There is a very old saying that is quite true "if you default on your bank loan of $10,000 you are in trouble, if you default on your bank loan of $10,000,000 your bank is in trouble". What happens if President Trump tells China to more or less even up the trade balance between the two countries or China will take a hit on the U.S. debt in its portfolio? Not a default by the U.S. just an offset against unfair trade practices by China.

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-09   1:28:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#33. To: SOSO (#32)

What happens if President Trump tells China to more or less even up the trade balance between the two countries or China will take a hit on the U.S. debt in its portfolio?

As always, the vast majority of U.S. debt is held by American institutional investors.

China has about $1.2 trillion of our debt. Japan has a little less.

Aim at them and you'll hit us. A lot of potential for backfires and friendly fire.

And I certainly have no confidence that Trump knows anything about it. He's just recycling his old anti-Japan rhetoric from the Eighties and formed it into his new anti-China rants. None of it has any substance, never did. It's just classic scapegoating, reminiscent of Fascist propaganda prior to WW II.

Forbes, 2014:

Owners of U.S. Debt

The largest owner of U.S. debt is Social Security. Since the Social Security system is a government entity, how can the government own its own debt? Good question. This is where the “house of cards” theory resides. Some believe the federal government is merely moving the IOUs from one shell to another, hoping to escape the watchful eye of its citizens. In any event, Social Security owns about 16% of the debt followed by other federal government entities (13%), and the Federal Reserve (12%). How much is owned by foreign governments? The following chart contains the answer.

US Debt
Ownership-Foreign-Domestic

According to the U.S. Treasury Department, at the end of August 2014, more than a third of the debt was owned by foreign countries (34.4%). The largest foreign holders of U.S. debt were Mainland China (7.2%) and Japan (7.0%). What is the consequence of having such a large percentage of debt held by foreign nations? It depends. It depends on the relationship between the U.S. and the specific foreign country.

It also depends on the global interest rate environment. Finally, it depends on the geo-political climate and the degree of fear around the globe. This is the case because when fear rises money flows into U.S. Treasuries which is viewed as a safe place to invest. The percentage of debt owned by countries that are less friendly to America is about 10%. This includes China, several oil exporters (Ecuador, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Libya, etc.), and a few others. The worst case would materialize if the largest holders decided to sell their Treasury securities at the same time. This could potentially decrease demand which would push yields higher. If yields rose, the federal government would find it more difficult to service the debt, pushing the deficit higher. If the deficit rose, the total debt burden would accelerate and, unless demand for U.S. debt were to increase, it could get ugly. Will this transpire? It’s not too likely. At least not for the foreseeable future anyway.




For a January 2016 list, look at Wiki:

Leading foreign holders of US Treasury securities as of January 2016
Economic areaBillions of dollars (est.)Ratio of owned US debt
to GDP (est.)[116][117]
Percent change since
January 2015
 China1,237.96%−0.1%
 Japan1,123.527%− 9%
Caribbean Banking
350.5n/a+28%
293.0n/a+0.8%
 Brazil255.714%−0.3%
 Ireland252.2111%+24%
  Switzerland237.435%+16%
223.28%+ 7%
 Hong Kong201.665%+18%
 Luxembourg200.1345%+14%
 Taiwan183.335%+ 7%
Others1,624.3n/a− 9%
Grand total6,183.1n/a−0.6%
There are the foreign creditors. The rest of the debt is held domestically, mostly by those phony IOUs that Social Security was given when Congress raided their funds to spend on other things.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-09   4:23:43 ET  (34 images) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#34. To: paraclete (#28)

"In order to repay the debt you have to stop spending"

More jobs = more revenue. Plus he plans on selling off government assets to pay down the debt.

What are the other candidates proposing? Anything? Are they even trying? Do they care?

misterwhite  posted on  2016-04-09   8:27:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#35. To: TooConservative (#33)

The rest of the debt is held domestically, mostly by those phony IOUs that Social Security was given when Congress raided their funds to spend on other things.

Ronald Reagan's legacy.

buckeroo  posted on  2016-04-09   8:32:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#36. To: TooConservative (#26)

"I just don't see what you base it on."

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions

Compare those to your pathetic and weak objections.

misterwhite  posted on  2016-04-09   8:43:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#37. To: buckeroo (#35)

Ronald Reagan's legacy.

Completely beside the point. Reagan didn't do anything without a huge Dem majority in the House and in the Senate passing it first. He wasn't a dictator like 0bama has been.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-09   8:48:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#38. To: misterwhite (#36)

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions

I'm not going to read Trump's "positions" when even he can't quote them accurately.

Those are just Boilerplate For Boobs. Like you.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-09   8:49:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#39. To: TooConservative (#38)

"I'm not going to read Trump's "positions"

I don't blame you. If you did then you couldn't claim he had none.

misterwhite  posted on  2016-04-09   8:55:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#40. To: misterwhite (#39)

Trump doesn't make policy speeches at all. He did plagiarize Jeff Sessions' immigration positions but then misquotes them. It seems to me that the only other policy he's put any effort into was his panderfest at AIPAC, a performance for fellow-tycoons like Adelson.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-09   9:01:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#41. To: TooConservative (#40)

"Trump doesn't make policy speeches at all."

Nope. And his audience doesn't fall asleep, either.

He talks about his policies with a broad brush. If people need more information they can go to the website I posted.

He says he's going to build a wall, Mexico will pay for it, we will deport illegals, and we will put a temporary halt on admitting refugees from Syria. I believe him and will hold him to it. I really don't need to know all the details (which may change anyways). Just get it done.

You, on the other hand, want to know the details only because you want to pick it apart. Because that's all you got -- whiny, nitpicky snipes.

misterwhite  posted on  2016-04-09   9:21:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#42. To: misterwhite (#41)

Because that's all you got -- whiny, nitpicky snipes.

Facts are stubborn things... - John Adams

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-09   9:27:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#43. To: TooConservative (#40)

"He did plagiarize Jeff Sessions' immigration positions"

HEADLINE:

Game Change: Trump Consults with Sen Jeff Sessions on Immigration Strategy
-- Breitbart, 14 Aug 2015

Plagiarize? "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means”

misterwhite  posted on  2016-04-09   9:28:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#44. To: TooConservative (#33)

China has about $1.2 trillion of our debt. Japan has a little less.

Aim at them and you'll hit us. A lot of potential for backfires and friendly fire.

I am well aware of that. But the dialogue was based on the U.S. being bankrupt and Dollar Donald knowing nothing about bankruptcy. It is premised on a sh*t hit the fan scenario. My point was that Dollar D understands bankruptcy quite well and would act accordingly.

As far as I know there isn't a global bankyuptcy court that would rule, much less enforce, universally agreed upon bankruptcu laws. This would give any POTUS a great deal of latitude and negotiating room in dealing one-on-one with individual creditors. Sure the rating agencies would likely downgrade the U.S. credit rating but if the U.S is in the financial tank what would the rest of the industrial world look like.

As this hypothectical.

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-09   11:40:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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