Kamala Harris, reparations, and guaranteed income
Did Mudboy Slim finally kill this place?
"Why Young Americans Are Not Taught about Evil"
"New Rules For Radicals — How To Reinvent Kamala Harris"
"Harris’ problem: She’s a complete phony"
Hurricane Beryl strikes Bay City (TX)
Who Is ‘Destroying Democracy In Darkness?’
‘Kamalanomics’ is just ‘Bidenomics’ but dumber
Even The Washington Post Says Kamala's 'Price Control' Plan is 'Communist'
Arthur Ray Hines, "Sneakypete", has passed away.
No righT ... for me To hear --- whaT you say !
"Walz’s Fellow Guardsmen Set the Record Straight on Veep Candidate’s Military Career: ‘He Bailed Out’ "
"Kamala Harris Selects Progressive Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as Running Mate"
"The Teleprompter Campaign"
Good Riddance to Ismail Haniyeh
"Pagans in Paris"
"Liberal groupthink makes American life creepy and could cost Democrats the election".
"Enter Harris, Stage Lef"t
Official describes the moment a Butler officer confronted the Trump shooter
Jesse Watters: Don’t buy this excuse from the Secret Service
Video shows Trump shooter crawling into position while folks point him out to law enforcement
Eyewitness believes there was a 'noticeable' difference in security at Trump's rally
Trump Assassination Attempt
We screamed for 3 minutes at police and Secret Service. They couldn’t see him, so they did nothing. EYEWITNESS SPEAKS OUT — I SAW THE ASSASSIN CRAWLING ACROSS THE ROOF.
Video showing the Trump Rally shooter dead on the rooftop
Court Just Nailed Hillary in $6 Million FEC Violation Case, 45x Bigger Than Trump's $130k So-Called Violation
2024 Republican Platform Drops Gun-Rights Promises
Why will Kamala Harris resign from her occupancy of the Office of Vice President of the USA? Scroll down for records/details
Secret Negotiations! Jill Biden’s Demands for $2B Library, Legal Immunity, and $100M Book Deal to Protect Biden Family Before Joe’s Exit
AI is exhausting the power grid. Tech firms are seeking a miracle solution.
If you need a Good Opening for black, use this.
"Arrogant Hunter Biden has never been held accountable — until now"
How Republicans in Key Senate Races Are Flip-Flopping on Abortion
Idaho bar sparks fury for declaring June 'Heterosexual Awesomeness Month' and giving free beers and 15% discounts to straight men
Son of Buc-ee’s co-owner indicted for filming guests in the shower and having sex. He says the law makes it OK.
South Africa warns US could be liable for ICC prosecution for supporting Israel
Today I turned 50!
San Diego Police officer resigns after getting locked in the backseat with female detainee
Gazan Refugee Warns the World about Hamas
Iranian stabbed for sharing his faith, miraculously made it across the border without a passport!
Protest and Clashes outside Trump's Bronx Rally in Crotona Park
Netanyahu Issues Warning To US Leaders Over ICC Arrest Warrants: 'You're Next'
Will it ever end?
Did Pope Francis Just Call Jesus a Liar?
Climate: The Movie (The Cold Truth) Updated 4K version
There can never be peace on Earth for as long as Islamic Sharia exists
The Victims of Benny Hinn: 30 Years of Spiritual Deception.
Trump Is Planning to Send Kill Teams to Mexico to Take Out Cartel Leaders
The Great Falling Away in the Church is Here | Tim Dilena
How Ridiculous? Blade-Less Swiss Army Knife Debuts As Weapon Laws Tighten
|
Status: Not Logged In; Sign In
politics and politicians See other politics and politicians Articles Title: Wisconsin exit poll: More than a third of Republicans won’t vote GOP if Trump — or Cruz — is the nominee
Source:
HotAir
URL Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2016/04/ ... -trump-or-cruz-is-the-nominee/
Published: Apr 6, 2016
Author: Allahpundit
Post Date: 2016-04-07 03:21:10 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None Views: 1614
Comments: 31
A leftover from last night. In case you thought theres even a whisper of a chance that the GOP will win this November, disabuse yourself of that now. Its not just #NeverTrump that threatens to sink the party. Its #NeverCruz too. When asked what they would do if Cruz were the GOP nominee in November, only 65 percent of Wisconsin Republicans said theyd vote for him. The remainder instead would vote for a third-party candidate (18 percent), vote for Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton (7 percent) or not vote at all (6 percent). The numbers got slightly worse for the Republican Party when voters were asked to consider Trump as the GOP nominee. Just 61 percent said theyd vote for the brash businessman, with the rest defecting to a third party (16 percent) or to Clinton (10 percent)or simply staying home (9 percent). | Question: Are the #NeverCruz people really #OnlyTrump people? I think #NeverTrumpers would be willing to vote for damn near any third-party nominee with conservative cred Tom Coburn, Rick Perry, you name it. With #NeverCruzers Im not sure. I think many of them are imagining the third-party candidate in this scenario to be Trump himself. Right? If Cruz wins on the convention floor, Trumpers will be expecting Trump to declare his independent candidacy, sore-loser laws be damned, and to battle on to November. I dont know if hell do that. Hed have zero chance to win and hes not a guy who seems eager to spend down his nest egg on building a formidable campaign even in the current favorable circumstances (if he was, hed probably have the nomination locked up by now). Why would he spend to build one for a lost cause? I think hed sit it out, encourage his fans to write him in which many would and spend the fall sniping at Cruz in media appearances. Hed still do major damage to Cruz as a write-in, but not to the tune of 18 percent. I think 5-7 percent is realistic, with plenty of other Trumpers reluctantly resigned to voting Cruz once its gut-check time in late October. Although dont misunderstand: I think Cruz is a longshot this fall, albeit not as much as a longshot as Trump. Even with an excellent organization, his odds of beating Hillary after a bitter floor fight and splintered party cant be more than 40 percent. If you missed the rest of the exit polls last night, skim through them now and see what jumps out. Right away, youll find the numbers among men and women were nearly identical for all three candidates with Cruz winning 48/35 in both groups. That explains why the now infamous ARG poll of Wisconsin was so wildly wrong. ARG correctly had Cruz winning big among women but they put Trump ahead among men
57/23. They missed by 47 points. For all the hype, including from me, about a looming gender gap in Wisconsin, there was no gap at all. Cruz crushed it among both sexes. Meanwhile, ideologically, in the past Cruz wins have been defined by running up the score with very conservative voters. He did that again last night, 65/28, but he also topped Trump among somewhat conservatives, 47/36, and finished just 11 points behind among moderates, a group among which Trump usually kills him. (Relatedly, Cruz tied Trump at 40 percent among independents, an amazing neutralization of the threat posed by Wisconsins open primary.) If youre invested in the idea that last night was a turning point, writes Nate Cohn, thats your best evidence. It may be that centrists, who havent been warm to Cruz thus far, are finally cutting Kasich loose and starting to line up behind Cruz as the last Not Trump standing. If Wisconsin is the start of a national trend in that regard, with Trump no longer able to count on his core demographics to deliver for him, hes in trouble. It appears that many moderate voters, who have long been the biggest obstacle to Mr. Cruz, finally broke his way. According to exit polls, Mr. Cruz won 29 percent of them far higher than the 12 percent he won in Michigan and 15 percent in Illinois. Mr. Kasichs share of the vote among both self-described moderate and somewhat conservative voters dropped
But perhaps the best reason to think it still might be part of a broader phenomenon for Mr. Cruz is that he has outperformed expectations at every point since Super Tuesday. He nearly doubled his support in the contests immediately after Super Tuesday, as Mr. Rubio faltered. He posted strong showings on March 15 like clearing 40 percent of the vote in Missouri and 30 percent in Illinois that were largely overlooked because it was not enough for him to win
If Mr. Cruzs step forward is representative of the rest of his race, Mr. Trump will no longer be on track to amass a majority of delegates. Heres one way to think about it: If Mr. Cruz outperforms our model by the same amount that he did Tuesday, Mr. Trump will go from a favorite to an underdog in California, Indiana, Maryland and Montana. Pennsylvania would be competitive. Mr. Trump would not even be near the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination. | Theres no great mystery to whats happening here. Rubio fans began drifting towards Cruz weeks ago, even before Rubio dropped out, as they concluded that Cruz was a better long-term bet to stop Trump than Marco was. Once Rubio made it official and quit, that drift accelerated. (In fact, per Philip Klein, Cruz has won more delegates since Rubio left the race than Trump has.) Now youre seeing something similar happen with some of Kasichs supporters: As he continues to lose, and lose badly, in one state after another, parts of his base are reluctantly accepting that hes a lost cause and swinging around to Cruz as their #NeverTrump choice. It may be that Cruz is going to run into diminishing returns with the most loyal Kasich voters, who are likely firmly centrist and have resisted all appeals to switch to Cruz so far. But then, it might not matter. Cruzs goal at this point isnt to get to 1,237 before the convention or even to win states per se. His goal is to hold Trump as far below 1,237 as he can. If he can split the remaining delegates on the table in the primaries with Trump 50/50, hell accomplish that easily. And who knows? Maybe some of those stubborn Kasich dead-enders will be newly alienated by whatever boorish thing Trump says this week or next week or the week after that. Trump will continue to produce defectors for Cruz through his own behavior. The only question is how many. In fact, heres a stat that sums all of this up nicely: Trumps audience isn't growing, @alexcast says. Average vote share after 30 states is 35.6% almost same as 35.3% in his 1st victory, in NH Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) April 6, 2016 | Nate Silver fleshed that out a bit: Trump has his loyal third of the party (okay, slightly more than third) but its not growing. Its Cruzs numbers that are growing as the race becomes the Trump vs. Not Trump contest hes craved all along. Trump has to reverse that in the few remaining midwestern states to come, like Indiana, to get to 1,237 before Cleveland. Hes going to crush Cruz in New York in two weeks, but that landslide has already been priced into his chances at winning a majority of delegates before the convention. He needs some mojo in the toss-up states, not the sure things, to help himself. Where does he get it? | (1 image)
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top Page Up Full Thread Page Down Bottom/Latest
The D&R terrorists hate us because we're free, to vote second party "We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them.
Top Page Up Full Thread Page Down Bottom/Latest
|