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Title: Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention
Source:
FiveThirtyEight
URL Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features ... ly-win-a-contested-convention/
Published: Apr 6, 2016
Author: NATE SILVER
Post Date: 2016-04-06 16:08:23 by ConservingFreedom
Keywords: None
Views: 703
Comments: 3
It’s like something out of an Aaron Sorkin script. After their bitterly divisive primary, the Republican delegates come together to nominate John Kasich on the fourth ballot at a contested convention in Cleveland, despite his having won only his home state of Ohio. Or they choose House Speaker Paul Ryan, despite his not having run in the primaries at all. Balloons descend from the ceiling, celestial choirs sing and everything is right again with the Republican Party, which goes on to beat Hillary Clinton in a landslide in November. As I said, it’s like something out of a TV show. In other words: probably fiction. It’s not that hard to imagine a contested convention. In fact, with Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates looking tenuous, especially after his loss in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, it’s a real possibility. And it’s not hard to see how Republicans might think of Kasich or Ryan as good nominees. If Republicans were starting from scratch, both might be pretty good picks, especially from the perspective of the party “establishment” in Washington. But Republicans won’t be starting from scratch, and the “establishment” won’t pick the party’s nominee. The 2,472 delegates in Cleveland will. And most of them will be chosen at state or local party conventions a long way from Washington. Few will be household names, having quietly attended party gatherings in Fargo, North Dakota, or Cheyenne, Wyoming, for years with little remuneration or recognition. Although the proverbial Acela-riding insiders might dream of Ryan or Kasich, there are indications that the rank- and-file delegates are into Ted Cruz — and they’re the ones who will have votes in Cleveland. To recap a bit, the Republican presidential voting process is separate from the delegate selection process in most states. In South Carolina, for instance, most delegates are selected through a series of county, congressional district and state conventions. Although those delegates are bound to Trump (who won the state’s primary on Feb. 20) on the first ballot, they could peel off and vote for another candidate after that.1 There are some states where delegates are selected directly on the ballot (as in Maryland, for instance) and others where slates are submitted by the candidates (as in New Hampshire) — these are a fairly small minority. Below, you’ll find a table showing the Republicans’ delegate selection method in all states and territories, according to the Republican Party’s rulebook. * 54 Pennsylvania delegates are directly elected but unbound to any candidate. SOURCE: Republican National Committee Presidential Process Planning Book Without getting too lost in the details,2 there are five major delegate selection methods: In these first two cases, there’s a strong link between the presidential preference vote and delegate selection. The link isn’t perfect — weird things can happen when voters are asked to choose from among a number of delegates they’ve never heard of — but it’s pretty close. However, these two groups combined will represent only 26 percent of all delegates in Cleveland (or 24 percent if Pennsylvania’s uncommitted delegates aren’t included in the tally). The other delegate selection methods are as follows: We know that Cruz is likely to do well among delegates chosen through state and local conventions because we’ve seen that demonstrated quite a few times already. This is most obvious in the three states — Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota — where there was no presidential preference vote. Cruz won nine of the 12 delegates chosen at county conventions in Wyoming (Trump won one), and Cruz has gotten six of six picked so far at congressional district conventions in Colorado (more Colorado congressional districts will choose their delegates this week). In North Dakota, delegates are technically unbound, but Cruz got a highly favorable slate of delegates approved at the state convention on Sunday; only one or two delegates of the 25 chosen appear favorably disposed to Trump. Cruz has also gotten good results at state and local conventions in states that do hold a presidential preference vote. In fact, considering that relatively few states have completed their convention process, it’s remarkable how many examples you can find of Cruz cleaning Trump’s clock: for example, in Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina and South Dakota. It’s possible that Trump will improve his delegate-selection efforts in subsequent states, and with his chance of winning the GOP nomination down to 49 percent at prediction markets, he’s become a tempting buy-low opportunity. But in terms of delegate selection, Trump has nowhere to go but up, making it more essential for him to win 1,237 delegates by California or come very close to it. TIED TO PRES. PREF. VOTE NOT TIED TO PRES. PREF. VOTE STATE OR TERRITORY BY CANDIDATES ON PRIMARY BALLOT AT STATE OR LOCAL CONVENTIONS BY STATE OR LOCAL PARTY COMMITTEES RNC MEMBERS Alabama 47 3 Alaska 25 3 American Samoa 6 3 Arizona 55 3 Arkansas 12 25 3 California 169 3 Colorado 34 3 Connecticut 25 3 Delaware 13 3 D.C. 16 3 Florida 81 15 3 Georgia 73 3 Guam 6 3 Hawaii 16 3 Idaho 29 3 Illinois 54 12 3 Indiana 54 3 Iowa 27 3 Kansas 37 3 Kentucky 43 3 Louisiana 43 3 Maine 20 3 Maryland 24 11 3 Massachusetts 27 12 3 Michigan 56 3 Minnesota 35 3 Mississippi 37 3 Missouri 49 3 Montana 24 3 Nebraska 33 3 Nevada 27 3 New Hampshire 20 3 New Jersey 48 3 New Mexico 21 3 New York 92 3 North Carolina 69 3 North Dakota 25 3 No. Mariana Isl. 6 3 Ohio 63 3 Oklahoma 40 3 Oregon 25 3 Pennsylvania 54* 14 3 Puerto Rico 20 3 Rhode Island 16 3 South Carolina 47 3 South Dakota 26 3 Tennessee 41 14 3 Texas 152 3 Utah 37 3 Vermont 13 3 Virgin Islands 6 3 Virginia 46 3 Washington 41 3 West Virginia 31 3 Wisconsin 24 15 3 Wyoming 26 3 Total 259 398 1,358 289 168 Share of total 10% 16% 55% 12% 7%
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#1. To: ConservingFreedom (#0)
Whoever cares for the Republican Party had better hope to God that Cruz is not the nominee, because if he is, it's over for you.
Trump supporters will not accept any convention math or any convention rules that will nominate a candidate other than Trump if Trump comes into the convention with the lion's share of candidates. Period.
Canadian, Cuban, and American. Throw a dart at a map of north america, and the odds are that Teddy is a "natural born citizen" there. If you don't have a clue what Natural Born Citizen means. If he's a natural born citizen of the US because of his American mother, he's also a natural born citizen of Cuba because of his Cuban father? He can run for el presidente of Cuba too!
#2. To: ConservingFreedom (#0)
#3. To: ConservingFreedom, Rafael Teduardo Cruz, tripple natural born (#0)
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
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