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Foreign Invaders crisis cost $150B in 2023, forcing some areas to cut police and fire services: report Israel kills head of Hezbollah Intelligence. Tenn. AG reveals ICE released thousands of ‘murderers and rapists’ from detention centers into US streets Status: Not Logged In; Sign In The Establishments war on Donald Trump See other The Establishments war on Donald Trump Articles Title: In two weeks, Cruz will be a zombie candidate like Kasich Source: [None] URL Source: [None] Published: Apr 5, 2016 Author: nolui chan Post Date: 2016-04-05 16:21:25 by nolu chan Keywords: None Views: 7152 Comments: 51 In two weeks, Cruz will be a zombie candidate like Kasich by nolu chan April 5, 2016 I have used linked data from the NYT and 538. Using other sources may vary the data somewhat over who has how many delegates and how many are left. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html 2016 Delegate Count and Primary Results By WILSON ANDREWS, KITTY BENNETT and ALICIA PARLAPIANO New York Times UPDATED APRIL 5, 2016 736 Trump has 806 remaining delegates 463 Cruz has 1269 Cruz -- if he takes all remaining available delegates 1237 needed 32 What Cruz can lose 33 What Trump/Kasich combined need to make a Cruz majority impossible - - - - - http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-donald-trump-clinch-the-republican-nomination-before-the-convention/ 2016 Election 6:30 AM Mar 21, 2016 Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention? We don’t know, but our survey of delegate experts suggests it’ll be close. By Harry Enten and Nate Silver In addition to Nate Silver’s and my estimates, we tried to include a diverse set of opinions from across the political spectrum. We also focused on analysts who have been following the delegate race closely and know the intricacies of the GOP’s delegate rules. Our panel included these people: Adam Geller: founder and CEO of National Research Inc. and the lead pollster for Chris Christie’s presidential campaign Daniel Nichanian: contributing editor to Daily Kos Elections and PhD candidate in political science at the University of Chicago. Henry Olsen: senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center Margie Omero: managing director at Purple Insights Patrick Ruffini: co-founder and partner at Echelon Insights and chairman and founder of Engage David Wasserman: House editor at the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight contributor The "expert" panel for 538 (not a Donald Trump fan club) estimates 71 (of 95) New York delegates for Trump. Unless one can find a way to plausibly claim that Trump/Kasich combined will take less than 33 delegates, the Cruz campaign claim to a clear path to a majority will become a mathematical impossibility after April 19th. After that, Trump will be running against not one, but two zombie candidates seeking votes for the sole purpose of locking the convention so that the GOP establishment can select the candidate for the voting public. That will be a very difficult sell. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_republican_presidential_primary-4222.html The Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls indicates the following average for New York: 53.3% -- Trump 21.3% -- Kasich 19.0% -- Cruz +32.0 -- Trump Estimating only 71 for Trump is being generous to Kasich/Cruz. Cruz is likely to be obliterated in the northeastern states. In two weeks, after New York, Cruz will be just another zombie candidate like Kasich. In two weeks, if one believes Cruz, Cruz should drop out for the same precise reason that Cruz now claims Kasich should drop out. Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest #1. To: nolu chan (#0) Today is Cruz' last hurrah. Imagine how much better off we would be if the Republicans were coalescing now around Trump and hammering away at Hillary now that she's at her most vulnerable. But NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Instead the Republicans have to pull their usual crap. Vicomte13  posted on  2016-04-05   17:29:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #2. To: Vicomte13 (#1) " Instead the Republicans have to pull their usual crap. " Well, they are the party of STUPID ! Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur Stoner  posted on  2016-04-05   17:45:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #3. To: Vicomte13 (#1) But NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Instead the Republicans have to pull their usual crap. The usual crap is to consolidate around the frontrunner, usually making them an inevitable nominee with growing party support after the Florida primary. That hasn't happened. Trump faces much more intense opposition than even a Romney or a McStain. As for tonight, I notice Trump is back in NYC. Not waiting to give a victory speech in Wisconsin. Leaving the state early, before its polls close, is usually a bad sign. And those last-minute voters seem to resent it. Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-05   19:15:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #4. To: Vicomte13 (#1) Today is Cruz' last hurrah. Imagine how much better off we would be if the Republicans were coalescing now around Trump and hammering away at Hillary now that she's at her most vulnerable. But NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Instead the Republicans have to pull their usual crap. If they screw Trump out of the nomination. Assuming he gets the most votes. I will never vote for any Republicans forever. Also look for a major purge here and a new direction. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   19:18:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #5. To: A K A Stone (#4) Also look for a major purge here and a new direction. Care to elaborate? tpaine  posted on  2016-04-05   19:31:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #6. To: A K A Stone (#4) Assuming he gets the most votes. He needs a majority not a plurality. Do you recall Bush v Gore? Gore received the majority of votes yet lost the election because of the rules. The RNC has rules. So how do you define cheating Trump out of the nomination if he doesn't get the majority of the delegate votes? IMO cheating him or anyone else would be changing the rules to specifically beat them. The RNC is not the Electoral College where rules can be changed ad hoc. Though it is worth noting that the Electoral College can act in a manner to cheat someone out of the election. "There is no Constitutional provision or Federal law that requires EC Electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their States. Some States do require that their Electors cast their votes according to the popular vote. These pledges fall into two categories—Electors bound by State law and those bound by pledges to political parties. Some State laws provide that so-called "faithless Electors"; may be subject to fines or may be disqualified for casting an invalid vote and be replaced by a substitute elector. The Supreme Court has not specifically ruled on the question of whether pledges and penalties for failure to vote as pledged may be enforced under the Constitution. No Elector has ever been prosecuted for failing to vote as pledged. Today, it is rare for Electors to disregard the popular vote by casting their electoral vote for someone other than their party’s candidate. Electors generally hold a leadership position in their party or were chosen to recognize years of loyal service to the party. Throughout our history as a nation, more than 99 percent of Electors have voted as pledged." потому что Бог хочет это тот путь SOSO  posted on  2016-04-05   19:44:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #7. To: A K A Stone (#4) If they screw Trump out of the nomination. Assuming he gets the most votes. I will never vote for any Republicans forever. I was there when the Bushites pulled the "McCain has a black daughter" robo-call in South Carolina in 2000. But I gritted my teeth and voted for Bush. He turned out to be a turkey, and so did McCain, but I happily voted for Sarah Palin in 2008. Come 2012, though, Romney was an outrage. I KNEW I was being lied to and screwed. But I ground my teeth down to nubs and stood there for a long time at the ballot - would I REALLY blacked the oval for that man? I did. And regretted it by the end of the evening because he lost anyway. So, my compromise of my own character and my vote against my moral sense did nothing but sully me. The toad I voted for didn't win. This year, I was staying home. But then came Trump. I AGREE with Trump on so many things. I'm happy and enthusiastic to vote for him. Now I'm watching the Republicans be everything I loathed under Bush and Romney, doing it all AGAIN. This time, I don't think they're going to get away with it. I think Trump will win the nomination and then go on to beat Hillary like a drum. I don't think the wall will get FULLY built in the end, because I don't think it will have to be. Once there's a guy in there who is serious and STARTS to build it, and to enforce, and to sanction, I think that all of a sudden there will be a reasonable cooperation by Mexico and others. Unable to stop it, they will be ready to make changes. But if they don't. the wall gets fully built. I don't see Trump backing down on anything. I do see him changing course if the effects of what he does improve a situation such that an optimal result can be achieved more swiftly and cheaply. I could go on about my hopes - and let some posters here take shots at me for being a "fan-boi" and all that. So I'll cut it short. I'm not a Republican, but I'll vote for the Republican named Trump, and if he moves things where he says he is going to, and the Republicans don't attack him and fight him every step of the way, I'll give credit where credit is due and give Republicans a chance. But if they keep trying to screw him, and worse, if they succeed, they can all go fuck themselves and die in a hole for all I care. Vicomte13  posted on  2016-04-05   20:34:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #8. To: SOSO (#6) He needs a majority not a plurality. You're full of shit. If he gets the most and the screw him. Watch as millions abandon the Republican party of shit heads. I'll even vote for some democrats to hasten their extinction. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   20:53:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #9. To: nolu chan (#0) In two weeks, Cruz will be a zombie candidate Not if he continues to have enough zombies voting for him. rlk  posted on  2016-04-05   20:53:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #10. To: SOSO (#6) So how do you define cheating Trump out of the nomination if he doesn't get the majority of the delegate votes? I already said that. If he gets the most votes and they fuck him they can fuck an aids infested faggot. Then die. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   20:54:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #11. To: A K A Stone (#8) He needs a majority not a plurality. You're full of shit. Were do you get your information? Do you just make it up? The RNC rules presently require that a candidate must get the majority vote of the delegates at the convention to get the nomination. How in the world do you come to dispute this? потому что Бог хочет это тот путь SOSO  posted on  2016-04-05   20:56:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #12. To: SOSO (#6) There is no Constitutional provision or Federal law that requires EC Electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their States. Who gives a shit. If they screw Trump out of the nomination when he gets the most votes. Then I hope the delegates are targeted personally. Because they will have ruined the country. Then I could care less about what happens to them personally. You don't get it. You will. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   20:56:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #13. To: nolu chan (#0) (Edited) You seem to be optimistic about Trump's chances to win. Why? American politics has always failed the people. buckeroo  posted on  2016-04-05   20:57:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #14. To: SOSO (#11) Were do you get your information? Do you just make it up? The RNC rules presently require that a candidate must get the majority vote of the delegates at the convention to get the nomination. How in the world do you come to dispute this? I don't give a shit what their undemocratic rules are. If Trump gets the most votes and he doesn't get the nomination. They can all go suck some aids and die. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   20:58:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #15. To: A K A Stone (#12) There is no Constitutional provision or Federal law that requires EC Electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their States. Who gives a shit. If they screw Trump out of the nomination when he gets the most votes. Then I hope the delegates are targeted personally. Because they will have ruined the country. Then I could care less about what happens to them personally. You don't get it. You will. You are raving like a madman. Get a grip. Take some meds or something. Give you guns to tpaine to hold for you until you come to your senses again. And do not, repeat do not, operate heavy machinery. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь SOSO  posted on  2016-04-05   20:59:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #16. To: tpaine (#5) Also look for a major purge here and a new direction. Care to elaborate? All assholes will be banned. Kool people like you will remain. I could change my mind. That is how I feel now. Maybe everyone will abandon the site. Who cares. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   20:59:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #17. To: SOSO (#15) You are raving like a madman. Get a grip. Yes and millions of others will be too. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   21:00:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #18. To: A K A Stone, Fred Mertz, sneakypete (#16) Kool people like you [tpaine] will remain. Free Fred! buckeroo  posted on  2016-04-05   21:01:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #19. To: buckeroo (#18) Free Fred! The guy who told me to go fuck myself because I told him to quit screwing up the threads. That's a good one. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   21:03:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #20. To: SOSO (#15) ive you guns to tpaine to hold for you until you come to your senses again. I don't have guns. I have fists. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   21:04:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #21. To: A K A Stone (#20) I wouldn't take shit from the agenda dopes. They should remember this is your house. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح GrandIsland  posted on  2016-04-05   21:07:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #22. To: A K A Stone, Fred Mertz (#19) (Edited) The guy who told me to go fuck myself because I told him to quit screwing up the threads. Stone - We know you rule this chit-chat channel with an iron fist. Sumtymes, you come crashing down on all kinds of people. It irratates people otherwise trying/ attempting to make a point. buckeroo  posted on  2016-04-05   21:07:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #23. To: GrandIsland (#21) LQQK what just dragged its ass in! Did the donut shop owners run out of maple bars? buckeroo  posted on  2016-04-05   21:08:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #24. To: GrandIsland (#21) I wouldn't take shit from the agenda dopes. They should remember this is your house. SOSO is ok. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   21:09:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #25. To: buckeroo (#22) Hey Bucky, I get 3 posts a day now and this is number 2. Good to see you! Fred Mertz  posted on  2016-04-05   21:09:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #26. To: buckeroo (#23) Your donut jokes are lame Buck. Grandisland isn't the enemy. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   21:10:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #27. To: Fred Mertz (#25) I must have messed up. I thought I put it to two. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   21:10:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #28. To: Fred Mertz (#25) Hey Bucky, I get 3 posts a day now The site owner is generous. After one post, Commie Sanders supporters start repeating themselves. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح GrandIsland  posted on  2016-04-05   21:14:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #29. To: GrandIsland (#28) You are worried about Commie Sanders? I am worried about Fascist Trump. Don't tell me you believe the bullshit he is selling you on; for a donut eater and koffee slurper, Trump might ... he just might extract some taxes out of your retirement plan which could make you go atomick using your 50,000+ primers. buckeroo  posted on  2016-04-05   21:33:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #30. To: buckeroo (#29) using your 50,000+ primers. Btw, I have more than 50K primers. I bought 10K more. Failing to prepare is like preparing TO FAIL. When ammo is impossible to buy, I don't wanna hear you bitch, you dope. lol I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح GrandIsland  posted on  2016-04-05   21:47:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #31. To: GrandIsland (#30) Btw, I have more than 50K primers. I bought 10K more. I understand your fascination about tap dancing on your primers doing the funky boog-a-loo but, to be honest, you are going to extreme masochistic efforts. You could hurt your mom upstairs as you tap dance in the basement. You should be considerate with your family that has housed you and cared for you all these years; don't you rememeber how your family has sheltered you while growing up leading you to the little short yellow bus for your special education? What about the facts that got you a job later on with a fake badge and a belt and hat emmulating a cop, even though you were a cross walk guard all these years? man ... oh man ... you are a heart breaker. I know that it is not your own fault, however. But please don't tap dance on your primers in the basement anymore. Your mom needs some peace and quiet away from you. buckeroo  posted on  2016-04-05   22:07:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #32. To: SOSO, A K A STONE (#15) Give you guns to tpaine to hold for you until you come to your senses again. It's official.. I'm too kool to hold anyone's guns... tpaine  posted on  2016-04-05   22:10:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #33. To: rlk (#9) Not if he continues to have enough zombies voting for him. He needs to stop Trump/Kasich combined from taking another 33 delegates. The cast of extras from The Walking Dead won't be enough. He will be another Kasich from mid-April until the primaries end in June. If he tells the truth, very unlikely, all he could tell his supporters is to vote for Cruz to give him leverage against Trump to force Trump to adopt him as a VP candidate (if he can stop Trump from gaining a 1237 majority). The establishment will never adopt Cruz as their candidate. nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-05   22:45:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #34. To: GrandIsland, A K A Stone (#21) wouldn't take shit from the agenda dopes. LMAO. Another macho Rambo moron heard from. Aen't you the ex-cop who told everybody that a cop has no obligation to potoect you or rescue you or otherwise intervene if he sees someone attacking you or your family with a weapon or otherwise? I am very sure that that was you. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь SOSO  posted on  2016-04-05   22:50:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #35. To: tpaine, A K A STONE (#32) Give you guns to tpaine to hold for you until you come to your senses again. It's official.. I'm too kool to hold anyone's guns... We all know that, moron. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь SOSO  posted on  2016-04-05   22:51:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #36. To: buckeroo (#13) You seem to be optimistic about Trump's chances to win. Why? Arithmetic. The same reason I am pessimistic about Cruz remaining viable to attain a 1237 majority after April 19th. nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-05   22:51:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #37. To: nolu chan (#33) The establishment will never adopt Cruz as their candidate. No, a miracle has occurred. Trump poses a serious threat to grabbing the nomination and dragging the entire GOP down to a Goldwater-scale defeat. Cruz looks downright peachy, even to the Stain and Lady Lindsey (who used to joke that no senator would be prosecuted for murdering Cruz in cold blood). Now the Little Lady is hosting fundraisers and endorsing Cruz. Cruz hasn't changed his positions but Trump has scared the crap out of the GOPe. Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-05   22:55:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #38. To: nolu chan (#36) Arithmetic. But, it doesn't add up in a fascist nation such as the USA. buckeroo  posted on  2016-04-05   22:57:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #39. To: Vicomte13 (#1) Imagine how much better off we would be if the Republicans were coalescing now around Trump and hammering away at Hillary now that she's at her most vulnerable. The GOPe bureaucrats are better off if Hillary wins than if Trump or Cruz win. They just continue along, having demonstrated that they can destroy those who threaten their fiefdom. Their first concern is self-preservation of their own power. nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-05   23:01:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #40. To: buckeroo (#38) But, it doesn't add up in a fascist nation such as the USA. It adds up to Trump first, Cruz first loser. nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-05   23:02:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #41. To: nolu chan (#40) (Edited) Raise your pom-poms all you want and rally for your choice. The power elite already knows your choice. They have picked "him" or "her" for you, liberating your life from having to make a difficult, hand-wringing decision. You see, "freedom" is all about letting others make the decisions for you. buckeroo  posted on  2016-04-05   23:13:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply         .       .       . Comments (42 - 51) not displayed. 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