In two weeks, Cruz will be a zombie candidate like Kasich
by nolu chan
April 5, 2016
I have used linked data from the NYT and 538. Using other sources may vary the data somewhat over who has how many delegates and how many are left.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html
2016 Delegate Count and Primary Results By WILSON ANDREWS, KITTY BENNETT and ALICIA PARLAPIANO
New York Times
UPDATED APRIL 5, 2016
736 Trump has
806 remaining delegates
463 Cruz has
1269 Cruz -- if he takes all remaining available delegates
1237 needed
32 What Cruz can lose
33 What Trump/Kasich combined need to make a Cruz majority impossible
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-donald-trump-clinch-the-republican-nomination-before-the-convention/
2016 Election 6:30 AM Mar 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
We don’t know, but our survey of delegate experts suggests it’ll be close.
By Harry Enten and Nate Silver
In addition to Nate Silver’s and my estimates, we tried to include a diverse set of opinions from across the political spectrum. We also focused on analysts who have been following the delegate race closely and know the intricacies of the GOP’s delegate rules. Our panel included these people:
- Adam Geller: founder and CEO of National Research Inc. and the lead pollster for Chris Christie’s presidential campaign
- Daniel Nichanian: contributing editor to Daily Kos Elections and PhD candidate in political science at the University of Chicago.
- Henry Olsen: senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center
- Margie Omero: managing director at Purple Insights
- Patrick Ruffini: co-founder and partner at Echelon Insights and chairman and founder of Engage
- David Wasserman: House editor at the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight contributor
The "expert" panel for 538 (not a Donald Trump fan club) estimates 71 (of 95) New York delegates for Trump.
Unless one can find a way to plausibly claim that Trump/Kasich combined will take less than 33 delegates, the Cruz campaign claim to a clear path to a majority will become a mathematical impossibility after April 19th.
After that, Trump will be running against not one, but two zombie candidates seeking votes for the sole purpose of locking the convention so that the GOP establishment can select the candidate for the voting public. That will be a very difficult sell.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_republican_presidential_primary-4222.html
The Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls indicates the following average for New York:
53.3% -- Trump 21.3% -- Kasich
19.0% -- Cruz
+32.0 -- Trump
Estimating only 71 for Trump is being generous to Kasich/Cruz. Cruz is likely to be obliterated in the northeastern states. In two weeks, after New York, Cruz will be just another zombie candidate like Kasich.
In two weeks, if one believes Cruz, Cruz should drop out for the same precise reason that Cruz now claims Kasich should drop out.
