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Houthi rebels' attack severely damages a Belize-flagged ship in key strait leading to the Red Sea (British Ship) Status: Not Logged In; Sign In The Establishments war on Donald Trump See other The Establishments war on Donald Trump Articles Title: In two weeks, Cruz will be a zombie candidate like Kasich Source: [None] URL Source: [None] Published: Apr 5, 2016 Author: nolui chan Post Date: 2016-04-05 16:21:25 by nolu chan Keywords: None Views: 5955 Comments: 51 In two weeks, Cruz will be a zombie candidate like Kasich by nolu chan April 5, 2016 I have used linked data from the NYT and 538. Using other sources may vary the data somewhat over who has how many delegates and how many are left. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html 2016 Delegate Count and Primary Results By WILSON ANDREWS, KITTY BENNETT and ALICIA PARLAPIANO New York Times UPDATED APRIL 5, 2016 736 Trump has 806 remaining delegates 463 Cruz has 1269 Cruz -- if he takes all remaining available delegates 1237 needed 32 What Cruz can lose 33 What Trump/Kasich combined need to make a Cruz majority impossible - - - - - http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-donald-trump-clinch-the-republican-nomination-before-the-convention/ 2016 Election 6:30 AM Mar 21, 2016 Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention? We don’t know, but our survey of delegate experts suggests it’ll be close. By Harry Enten and Nate Silver In addition to Nate Silver’s and my estimates, we tried to include a diverse set of opinions from across the political spectrum. We also focused on analysts who have been following the delegate race closely and know the intricacies of the GOP’s delegate rules. Our panel included these people: Adam Geller: founder and CEO of National Research Inc. and the lead pollster for Chris Christie’s presidential campaign Daniel Nichanian: contributing editor to Daily Kos Elections and PhD candidate in political science at the University of Chicago. Henry Olsen: senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center Margie Omero: managing director at Purple Insights Patrick Ruffini: co-founder and partner at Echelon Insights and chairman and founder of Engage David Wasserman: House editor at the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight contributor The "expert" panel for 538 (not a Donald Trump fan club) estimates 71 (of 95) New York delegates for Trump. Unless one can find a way to plausibly claim that Trump/Kasich combined will take less than 33 delegates, the Cruz campaign claim to a clear path to a majority will become a mathematical impossibility after April 19th. After that, Trump will be running against not one, but two zombie candidates seeking votes for the sole purpose of locking the convention so that the GOP establishment can select the candidate for the voting public. That will be a very difficult sell. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_republican_presidential_primary-4222.html The Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls indicates the following average for New York: 53.3% -- Trump 21.3% -- Kasich 19.0% -- Cruz +32.0 -- Trump Estimating only 71 for Trump is being generous to Kasich/Cruz. Cruz is likely to be obliterated in the northeastern states. In two weeks, after New York, Cruz will be just another zombie candidate like Kasich. In two weeks, if one believes Cruz, Cruz should drop out for the same precise reason that Cruz now claims Kasich should drop out. Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 43. #1. To: nolu chan (#0) Today is Cruz' last hurrah. Imagine how much better off we would be if the Republicans were coalescing now around Trump and hammering away at Hillary now that she's at her most vulnerable. But NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Instead the Republicans have to pull their usual crap. Vicomte13  posted on  2016-04-05   17:29:19 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #39. To: Vicomte13 (#1) Imagine how much better off we would be if the Republicans were coalescing now around Trump and hammering away at Hillary now that she's at her most vulnerable. The GOPe bureaucrats are better off if Hillary wins than if Trump or Cruz win. They just continue along, having demonstrated that they can destroy those who threaten their fiefdom. Their first concern is self-preservation of their own power. nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-05   23:01:11 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #43. To: nolu chan (#39) he GOPe bureaucrats are better off if Hillary wins than if Trump or Cruz win. That is their shortsighted error. What they do not understand is that Hillary hates them. The GOP has bedeviled her life since Bill started to run for President. She and her family has been tormented and tortured and dragged through the mud by the GOP. There is not bonhomie there. She is not going to PROTECT the interests of the GOPe. They THINK she will, but if she wins, she will have power. REAL power. Bone crushing power. More power than any President since LBJ. And the REASON she will have such power is that from her first moments in office, among her first official acts, she will establish dominance over the Supreme Court of the United States. Three Democrat women sit on the Supreme Court, plus Justice Breyer. They are strongly, reliably, consistently liberal Democrats in their votes. There is no Democrat Justice Kennedy, no Hamlet on the Dem side. The Democrats apply litmus tests and loyalty checks. They do not take chances with their nominees. Either Obama or Hillary will put the 5th Justice on that court, and for the first time since 1969 the Supreme Court will be controlled - DOMINATED - by Democrats. Liberal Democrats. Liberal, feminist Democrats. And that control will cinch in tighter as time goes on, for Ginsburg and Breyer are both over 80, and can safely retire, and they will be replaced by Hillary's people. And then Kennedy, who is also in his 80s. He has always been unreliable. He will be replaced by a very reliable liberal Democrat. Obama and Bush already showed how to command the country through Executive Order. Things that everybody thought could only be done through legislation have been imposed quite routinely by Obama and W before him. Congress cannot stop him either. Only the Supreme Court can. If Hillary controls the Supreme Court, the President's actions will NEVER be struck down by the court. Not ever. But the Republican rump in Congress will be. Also, we should be clear. If Trump is robbed of the nomination, there are huge numbers of Trump supporters who will not turn out to vote, or who will vote Democrat in revenge. The Republicans will probably lose the Senate if they cheat Trump. Clinton at one point had both houses of Congress, but no Democrat since LBJ has controlled the Supreme Court, and he didn't CONTROL it the way Hillary will. 9 of 13 Federal Circuits are already under Democrat control. More will be under Hillary. Hillary is going to command power not seen in a Democrat since FDR's Administration after West Coast Hotel. There will be no check nor balance on her, and she HATES Republicans. She will destroy them. She isn't going to back down on Obamacare, for example. No. She will ensure that the taxes and enforcement on the Republican donor class are ratcheted up. The Republican Party has been on a jihad against the Clintons since 1992. What they fail to understand is that Hillary Clinton is a killer, and when she has power, she will USE IT, ruthlessly, to prosecute, imprison, and utterly crush the Republicans. If Hillary Clinton wins this election, things will fundamentally change. The laws will change, the regulations, and the way that votes are counted and monitored. The Republican Party will never win the Presidency again. Hillary will complete their destruction and drive them into permanent rump status. And the tax rates on the wealthy - the key Republican donors - will be screwed up through the roof. THAT is what will break the cushy seats of the Republicans. Because the wealthy will shift their allegiance to Democrats in order to get protections and goodies. The Republican GOPe THINKS they will retain their cushy seats, but actually, they will be abandoned by the wealthy. Hillary keeps score. Companies that gave money to Republicans will be cut out of government contracts, destroying them. Corporations will no longer be people too - and Republicans means of influencing elections will be cut off. If Hillary wins, she is going to run the table and - very vindictively, with malice aforethought - target regulation and executive orders at specific Republican strongholds, businesses and people. The Kochs will be investigated, will be prosecuted, will be fined and destroyed and stripped of their wealth and power. Because Hillary will control the courts, and she will use them. Mark my words. There will be no gridlock. There will be one party rule, and dissent will be crushed. And from my perspective, that's fine. If the Republicans steal the election from Trump, I want them destroyed, prosecuted, and the wealth of the wealthy Republicans stripped from them and redistributed through the tax code to people who deserve it more than they do. The bleating and screaming of the Republicans as this is done to them will be enjoyable to me. I hate them. I have said that many times. I will vote for them because of Trump, because HE is right. But if they screw him over and deprive me of my voice, I will enthusiastically stand aside and let the Democrats strip them of their wealth, their rights and even their lives - if they decide to fight. America is in a revolutionary mode, and I'm French. Things can be settled peacefully, but if the ancien regime Republicans decide to pull the shit they look like they're going to pull, then I will be very happy to see them sent to the guillotine. Literally. When I say I hate them, I mean that I hate them enough to chop their fucking heads off. Steal the election from Trump, and I will back Madam LaFarge to start prosecuting Republicans, imprisoning them, and sending them to the Gulag. Fuck them all. Vicomte13  posted on  2016-04-06   0:14:41 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   Replies to Comment # 43. #44. To: Vicomte13 (#43) America is in a revolutionary mode, and I'm French. Things can be settled peacefully, but if the ancien regime Republicans decide to pull the shit they look like they're going to pull, then I will be very happy to see them sent to the guillotine. Literally. When I say I hate them, I mean that I hate them enough to chop their fucking heads off. Like we didn't know that all along. Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-06 06:24:50 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #50. To: Vicomte13 (#43) That is their shortsighted error. What they do not understand is that Hillary hates them. They know perfectly well that Hillary hates them. Their essential interest is maintaining their own power within the GOP. Hillary does not threaten that as does Trump or Cruz. nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-06 15:01:20 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   End Trace Mode for Comment # 43. Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest

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