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The Establishments war on Donald Trump
See other The Establishments war on Donald Trump Articles

Title: In two weeks, Cruz will be a zombie candidate like Kasich
Source: [None]
URL Source: [None]
Published: Apr 5, 2016
Author: nolui chan
Post Date: 2016-04-05 16:21:25 by nolu chan
Keywords: None
Views: 8446
Comments: 51

In two weeks, Cruz will be a zombie candidate like Kasich

by nolu chan
April 5, 2016

I have used linked data from the NYT and 538. Using other sources may vary the data somewhat over who has how many delegates and how many are left.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html

2016 Delegate Count and Primary Results

By WILSON ANDREWS, KITTY BENNETT and ALICIA PARLAPIANO
New York Times
UPDATED APRIL 5, 2016

736 Trump has

806 remaining delegates

463 Cruz has

1269 Cruz -- if he takes all remaining available delegates

1237 needed

32 What Cruz can lose

33 What Trump/Kasich combined need to make a Cruz majority impossible

- - - - -

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-donald-trump-clinch-the-republican-nomination-before-the-convention/

2016 Election

6:30 AM Mar 21, 2016

Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?

We don’t know, but our survey of delegate experts suggests it’ll be close.

By Harry Enten and Nate Silver

In addition to Nate Silver’s and my estimates, we tried to include a diverse set of opinions from across the political spectrum. We also focused on analysts who have been following the delegate race closely and know the intricacies of the GOP’s delegate rules. Our panel included these people:

  • Adam Geller: founder and CEO of National Research Inc. and the lead pollster for Chris Christie’s presidential campaign

  • Daniel Nichanian: contributing editor to Daily Kos Elections and PhD candidate in political science at the University of Chicago.

  • Henry Olsen: senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center

  • Margie Omero: managing director at Purple Insights

  • Patrick Ruffini: co-founder and partner at Echelon Insights and chairman and founder of Engage

  • David Wasserman: House editor at the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight contributor

The "expert" panel for 538 (not a Donald Trump fan club) estimates 71 (of 95) New York delegates for Trump.

Unless one can find a way to plausibly claim that Trump/Kasich combined will take less than 33 delegates, the Cruz campaign claim to a clear path to a majority will become a mathematical impossibility after April 19th.

After that, Trump will be running against not one, but two zombie candidates seeking votes for the sole purpose of locking the convention so that the GOP establishment can select the candidate for the voting public. That will be a very difficult sell.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_republican_presidential_primary-4222.html

The Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls indicates the following average for New York:

53.3% -- Trump

21.3% -- Kasich

19.0% -- Cruz

+32.0 -- Trump

Estimating only 71 for Trump is being generous to Kasich/Cruz. Cruz is likely to be obliterated in the northeastern states. In two weeks, after New York, Cruz will be just another zombie candidate like Kasich.

In two weeks, if one believes Cruz, Cruz should drop out for the same precise reason that Cruz now claims Kasich should drop out.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 1.

#1. To: nolu chan (#0)

Today is Cruz' last hurrah.

Imagine how much better off we would be if the Republicans were coalescing now around Trump and hammering away at Hillary now that she's at her most vulnerable.

But NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Instead the Republicans have to pull their usual crap.

Vicomte13  posted on  2016-04-05   17:29:19 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 1.

#2. To: Vicomte13 (#1)

" Instead the Republicans have to pull their usual crap. "

Well, they are the party of STUPID !

Stoner  posted on  2016-04-05 17:45:51 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Vicomte13 (#1)

But NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Instead the Republicans have to pull their usual crap.

The usual crap is to consolidate around the frontrunner, usually making them an inevitable nominee with growing party support after the Florida primary.

That hasn't happened. Trump faces much more intense opposition than even a Romney or a McStain.

As for tonight, I notice Trump is back in NYC. Not waiting to give a victory speech in Wisconsin.

Leaving the state early, before its polls close, is usually a bad sign. And those last-minute voters seem to resent it.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-05 19:15:43 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Vicomte13 (#1)

Today is Cruz' last hurrah.

Imagine how much better off we would be if the Republicans were coalescing now around Trump and hammering away at Hillary now that she's at her most vulnerable.

But NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Instead the Republicans have to pull their usual crap.

If they screw Trump out of the nomination. Assuming he gets the most votes. I will never vote for any Republicans forever.

Also look for a major purge here and a new direction.

A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05 19:18:54 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#39. To: Vicomte13 (#1)

Imagine how much better off we would be if the Republicans were coalescing now around Trump and hammering away at Hillary now that she's at her most vulnerable.

The GOPe bureaucrats are better off if Hillary wins than if Trump or Cruz win. They just continue along, having demonstrated that they can destroy those who threaten their fiefdom. Their first concern is self-preservation of their own power.

nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-05 23:01:11 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#42. To: Vicomte13, nolu chan (#1)

Imagine how much better off we would be if the Republicans were coalescing now around Trump and hammering away at Hillary now that she's at her most vulnerable.

Shows you it is a uniparty.

Pericles  posted on  2016-04-06 00:06:15 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 1.

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