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The Establishments war on Donald Trump
See other The Establishments war on Donald Trump Articles

Title: RNC Lays Groundwork for Nominee Who May Not Be Trump
Source: Bloomberg
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a ... r-nominee-who-may-not-be-trump
Published: Apr 1, 2016
Author: Kevin Cirilli
Post Date: 2016-04-01 09:39:23 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 2318
Comments: 27

The Republican National Committee has begun to prepare the public for what could prove to be a nasty convention.

After months of tense dealings with Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, the Republican National Committee's biggest challenge is beginning to take shape: how to navigate a scenario in which Trump leads his challengers in votes and delegates heading into the convention, but loses the nomination.

On Thursday in Washington, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus met with Trump and his inner circle, with the billionaire and his aides inquiring about delegate rules and protocol. Trump is poised to head to the party's July convention just short of the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. His leading rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, is already stoking the flames of a “Stop Trump” movement, and organizing an elaborate operation to win every delegate at the Cleveland convention.

Trump has been adamant that the candidate with the most votes and delegates—even if that candidate misses the majority threshold—should be the party's nominee. In an MSNBC town hall on Wednesday, he described the process as “unfair.”

“I have millions of more votes—that's my leverage,” Trump said.

A Bloomberg Politics national poll in March showed that 63 percent of Republican voters support Trump's view that the candidate with the most delegates and voters should win the nomination.

But party rules dictate a series of votes to determine the nominee, should he or she fail to break the 1,237-delegate threshold. RNC officials have launched a public-relations push in recent weeks to educate voters and the media about the process. They described it on their website and will host a conference call with reporters on Friday. The push signals the beginning of an effort by the party to lay the groundwork for what could unfold, and encourage voters to support the result.

“Donald Trump may well end up having the most votes anyone has ever gotten in a Republican primary this time. That was true for Mrs. Clinton and she didn't get the nomination,” in 2008, said Ron Kauffman, a member of the RNC's rules committee. “The thing that the party has to do is to make sure the voters believe their votes matter to keep them in the party for November.”

RNC officials at Thursday's meeting raised concerns that Trump could portray the party as having tainted the process in favor of a particular candidate, said a person familiar with the meeting who asked not to be named so as to discuss the matter more freely. Trump declined to state one way or the other what his strategy would be, but reiterated that he expected to be treated fairly in the process, the person said.

Messages to an RNC spokesman weren’t immediately returned, though the party said in a statement released Thursday that Trump and Priebus “had a productive conversation about the state of the race.”

Kauffman said party officials “have to make sure the RNC runs the convention by the rules, openly, honestly and transparently. And making sure people understand the rules so it's clear that we're doing it by the book.”

That's what voters—both Trump critics and detractors, and those still undecided—say they want. “The establishment has been picking our candidates for years,” said Pattie Krych of Appleton, Wisconsin, who said she's undecided between Trump and Cruz. “They just need to let the process play out. If Trump wins, so be it—he's who we picked.”

Dan Brown of Brodhead, Wisconsin, said he's voting for Trump and is skeptical that RNC officials are already trying to take the nomination away from him. “If they have a way to screw Trump out of the nomination, they will,” he said. “And I won't vote in a general election if they do. They're telling me that my vote means nothing.”

In recent weeks, Trump has sought to formalize a delegate strategy. He hired Paul Manafort, an iconic Washington political strategist, to head up his delegate strategy, with Ben Carson's former campaign manager, Barry Bennett, helping him.

“Someone is going to win and someone will lose and usually losers aren't happy,” said Kauffman, who has not endorsed a candidate. “All we can do is make sure it's honest and transparent by the rules. It's going to be fine in the end. I have no idea what's going to happen. I don't believe anyone does.”

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 21.

#4. To: cranky, tomder55, ConservingFreedom, SOSO (#0)

The talk of Romney is fading somewhat.

If Trump has the most delegates from the primaries and they reject him, it will actually be very hard to pick someone like Cruz who has far fewer votes, especially if Trump has ~1180 and Cruz has only ~1000. They could do it but it would likely backfire. And they still hate Cruz, just not as much as Trump.

And trying to pick Kasich or Rubio or Jeb! or any others who ran in 2016 won't work either when they'll bring no more than a few hundred delegates on the first ballot. If they reject Trump, it is hard for them to try to foist someone who had only a tiny fraction of Trump's delegates on the party as a legit choice. They have the power to do it but that is just asking voters to stay home in a huff.

I'm hearing Ryan's name much more now. He is already #3 in the line of succession as Speaker, has a squeaky clean record and family, handles himself ably in libmedia attacks, etc. Like Romney, he is a former nominee so his past is fully vetted and he is young (unlike Hitlery) and broadly acceptable to almost every faction of the GOP. At least, that seems to be the way the GOPe sees things at present if you read the tea leaves.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-01   10:33:38 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: TooConservative (#4)

I have been less than thrilled with Ryan's performance as Speaker so far . Too often he forges coaltions with the Dems to basically pass the Dem agenda ,leaving the conservative caucus on the losing side of the bill. On paper his budget is ok ;but he will not be able to pass it unless he makes enough concessions to fundamentlly change it .

It's amusing that people are suprised that a convention can end up contested . I guess that is because recently the nominee was coronated before the primary process really began. I would've loved to sit in at the 1940 convention when the gallery erupted into a 'We want Wilkie ' chant . He was the Trump of his time ....a former Democrat who was a business CEO and had no elected office experience. He was famous for his ad lib speeches without prepared text.He had made a national name for himself on the major media of his time ;the radio where he was big on a show called "Information,Please".Wilkie like Trump favored many of the big government programs of his time (the New Deal) .

The difference ? He favored America giving aid to England in WWII unlike Robert Taft ,the isolationist 'America First ' candidate in the race (he was also the legacy candidate being the son of President William Howard Taft). The other major candidate was the Rubio of his day ,Thomas Dewey .He was considered too young to be taken seriously .There were also 7 or 8 minor candidates that got delegate votes in the 1st 5 ballots.

After he won the nomination ,Wilkie pivoted in an attempt to differentiate himself from FDR . He became the isolationist candidate which was a losing card. He was pummeled in the general election . By 1944 there was talk of a 'hybrid party ' ticket of Roosevelt and Wilkie .It was seriously considered by the 2 .Wilkie's untimely death ended that intrigue .

tomder55  posted on  2016-04-01   12:22:05 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: tomder55 (#16)

The difference ? He favored America giving aid to England in WWII unlike Robert Taft ,the isolationist 'America First ' candidate in the race (he was also the legacy candidate being the son of President William Howard Taft). The other major candidate was the Rubio of his day ,Thomas Dewey .He was considered too young to be taken seriously .There were also 7 or 8 minor candidates that got delegate votes in the 1st 5 ballots.

You certainly know your 1940 convention minutiae well, far better than I.

Hey, I did mention Wilkie first though! I get a few points for that convention history footnote.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-01   12:28:40 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: TooConservative (#18)

I get a few points for that convention history footnote.

yes you do. I had considered other scenarios like Reagan's loss the Ford .But that result was pretty much locked up before the convention .

I also considered the 1912 convention where Teddy Roosevelt had a hissy fit and broke away from the Republicans to attempt a 3rd party run (and in doing gave us the Woodrow Wilson reign).

tomder55  posted on  2016-04-01   12:58:11 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: tomder55 (#20) (Edited)

I also considered the 1912 convention where Teddy Roosevelt had a hissy fit and broke away from the Republicans to attempt a 3rd party run (and in doing gave us the Woodrow Wilson reign).

I've seen others saying the same about 1912. I think they are assuming what would happen if Trump loses and then runs indy or if some faction of the GOP runs an indy candidate against Trump as the GOP nominee.

I consider that increasingly less likely. A lot of states have sore-loser laws and petition requirements and ballot filing requirements that make it much more difficult to make such a late start for a third-party run in 2016.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-01   13:02:25 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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