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Title: Oh my: Cruz 40, Trump 30, Kasich 21 in Wisconsin
Source:
HotAir
URL Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/ ... ump-30-kasich-21-in-wisconsin/
Published: Mar 30, 2016
Author: Allahpundit
Post Date: 2016-03-30 17:05:38 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 2614
Comments: 21
Noteworthy for many reasons, starting with the fact that it shows Cruz out to what’s easily his biggest lead in Wisconsin this month. Two other recent polls had him up by one point and five points, respectively; a third had Trump by two. This is the only poll taken over the past six days, though, which raises the question of whether it’s an outlier or it’s picking up recent movement towards Cruz for unknown reasons. Another reason it’s noteworthy is the time frame. It was conducted between last Thursday and this past Monday, meaning that it did include several days of polling after the National Enquirer story about Cruz broke but didn’t include any polling after Scott Walker endorsed Cruz yesterday morning — and note that Walker’s approval rating among Republicans here is 80/17. You would expect a poll like that, having missed the good news for Cruz but incorporated some of the bad, to show worse numbers than expected for him. Instead he’s up by double digits. How can that be? One likely reason: Wisconsin loathes Trump. That’s a favorable rating of 22/70 you’re looking at there. (Among the entire electorate, that is, not just Republicans.) Cruz’s rating is very poor too at 30/49; Hillary Clinton’s is even worse at 35/59. And yet, because Trump is so insanely toxic, Hillary destroys him in a hypothetical head-to-head, 47/37. Against Cruz, she’s dead even at 44 apiece — a startling result given Wisconsin’s reliable Democratic lean in presidential elections and Cruz’s reputation for ideological “extremism.” A good Democratic candidate waltzes away with Wisconsin in November. A bad one, like Hillary, may have to work for it against a decent Republican nominee. (Bernie Sanders runs much more strongly against Trump and Cruz here than she does.) Against a terrible Republican nominee, though? No contest. Another eye-popping data point on Trump: A clear majority of Wisconsinites are “very uncomfortable” with Trump as president. Cruz and Clinton draw poor numbers here too — 32 percent and 42 percent, respectively — but not nearly as poor as Trump’s, which turns a potentially competitive midwestern state into a giveaway. In fact, the vast majority of Wisconsin GOPers who aren’t voting Trump are so firmly opposed to him, per Marquette’s data, that he gained not a single point in their polling over the last month despite 31 percent of the primary electorate being freed up as other candidates like Marco Rubio left the race. Back in February, it was Trump 30, Cruz 19, Kasich 8. Cruz has gained 21 points since then and Kasich has gained 13. Trump: Zero. If you’re of the belief that Kasich dropping out would propel Cruz to ultimate victory as anti-Trumpers unite behind him, you can’t do better than that as evidence for your case. One more set of numbers, which won’t surprise you but could be significant: — MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016 No gender gap for Cruz but a big one for Trump. Lots of ink has been spilled on the problems Trump will face with women in the general election but it could be that his retweeted insult of Heidi Cruz and the fallout from it are starting to bite with Republican women voters too. It’ll take more than one poll and more than one state to validate that, but it’s something to watch if Cruz’s numbers begin rising elsewhere. Is the anti-Trump wing of the party writ large that’s unifying behind him or is it Republican women specifically, alienated by Trump, who are breaking his way?
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Among men in Republican primary, Trump supported by 35%, compared to 24% of women. Cruz at 40% and 39% respectively. #mulawpoll
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 5.
#1. To: TooConservative (#0)
All of the talk show hosts at WISN, Milwaukee's conservative radio station, are supporting Cruz. And they all hate Trump. That includes Mark Belling, who sometimes fills in for Rush. It's gotten so bad, I rarely listen to him now. I think the hard-core liberals at the old Air America radio network were nicer. The Republican Party of Wisconsin has 42 total delegates: 18 are statewide delegates, while 24 will come from the 8 districts.
You understate how much they hate him. I heard an interview the top guy did with Trump where he asked Trump if he knew before the interview that he was a sworn NeverTrumper. Trump was clearly taken aback. I heard later that Trump hung up on him. Trump really offends a state like Wisconsin. They're rigorously polite, like Canadians are. And they drink like fish, just like the Canadians do. Perhaps you know more about WI's process than I. I've seen WI described as "winner take all, by district and by state". Does that mean that the delegates are awarded by the 8 districts then the majority of those 24 delegates are used to award the 18 at-large delegates with the entire 42 going to the overall winner? I can't find a good description of exactly how this works in the Wisconsin GOP primary. And the Dem primary there is proportional, like the rest of the Dim primaries.
They claimed he "hung up" on Vicki McKenna. I happen to have been listening to that interview, and she got the 26 minutes they agreed to. She was dragging it out and he kept saying, "I gotta go ... good talking to you ... I have to go now" and then he finally hung up. Her response was, "I can't believe he hung up on me". "Does that mean that the delegates are awarded by the 8 districts then ..." If a candidate has the most total statewide votes, he is awarded 18 delegates. For each separate district he wins, he is awarded 3 additional delegates.
But in the end, does one candidate end up with all the delegates? I do see this page at WisPolitics.com. I can see that it is possible that Cruz could take all 42.
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#2. To: misterwhite (#1)
All of the talk show hosts at WISN, Milwaukee's conservative radio station, are supporting Cruz. And they all hate Trump.
The Republican Party of Wisconsin has 42 total delegates: 18 are statewide delegates, while 24 will come from the 8 districts.
#4. To: TooConservative (#2)
"I heard later that Trump hung up on him."
#5. To: misterwhite (#4)
If a candidate has the most total statewide votes, he is awarded 18 delegates. For each separate district he wins, he is awarded 3 additional delegates.
So if this is accurate, it sounds a lot more like a winner-take-most state than winner-take-all. Wisconsin's 42 GOP delegates will be awarded based on the results of the April 5 primary, both through the statewide results and in each congressional district. Whichever candidate wins a plurality of the statewide race will receive 18 of those delegates, while candidates also will pick up three for each of the eight congressional districts in which they place first.
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