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Title: Oh my: Cruz 40, Trump 30, Kasich 21 in Wisconsin
Source:
HotAir
URL Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2016/03/ ... ump-30-kasich-21-in-wisconsin/
Published: Mar 30, 2016
Author: Allahpundit
Post Date: 2016-03-30 17:05:38 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 1947
Comments: 21
Noteworthy for many reasons, starting with the fact that it shows Cruz out to what’s easily his biggest lead in Wisconsin this month. Two other recent polls had him up by one point and five points, respectively; a third had Trump by two. This is the only poll taken over the past six days, though, which raises the question of whether it’s an outlier or it’s picking up recent movement towards Cruz for unknown reasons. Another reason it’s noteworthy is the time frame. It was conducted between last Thursday and this past Monday, meaning that it did include several days of polling after the National Enquirer story about Cruz broke but didn’t include any polling after Scott Walker endorsed Cruz yesterday morning — and note that Walker’s approval rating among Republicans here is 80/17. You would expect a poll like that, having missed the good news for Cruz but incorporated some of the bad, to show worse numbers than expected for him. Instead he’s up by double digits. How can that be? One likely reason: Wisconsin loathes Trump. That’s a favorable rating of 22/70 you’re looking at there. (Among the entire electorate, that is, not just Republicans.) Cruz’s rating is very poor too at 30/49; Hillary Clinton’s is even worse at 35/59. And yet, because Trump is so insanely toxic, Hillary destroys him in a hypothetical head-to-head, 47/37. Against Cruz, she’s dead even at 44 apiece — a startling result given Wisconsin’s reliable Democratic lean in presidential elections and Cruz’s reputation for ideological “extremism.” A good Democratic candidate waltzes away with Wisconsin in November. A bad one, like Hillary, may have to work for it against a decent Republican nominee. (Bernie Sanders runs much more strongly against Trump and Cruz here than she does.) Against a terrible Republican nominee, though? No contest. Another eye-popping data point on Trump: A clear majority of Wisconsinites are “very uncomfortable” with Trump as president. Cruz and Clinton draw poor numbers here too — 32 percent and 42 percent, respectively — but not nearly as poor as Trump’s, which turns a potentially competitive midwestern state into a giveaway. In fact, the vast majority of Wisconsin GOPers who aren’t voting Trump are so firmly opposed to him, per Marquette’s data, that he gained not a single point in their polling over the last month despite 31 percent of the primary electorate being freed up as other candidates like Marco Rubio left the race. Back in February, it was Trump 30, Cruz 19, Kasich 8. Cruz has gained 21 points since then and Kasich has gained 13. Trump: Zero. If you’re of the belief that Kasich dropping out would propel Cruz to ultimate victory as anti-Trumpers unite behind him, you can’t do better than that as evidence for your case. One more set of numbers, which won’t surprise you but could be significant: — MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) March 30, 2016 No gender gap for Cruz but a big one for Trump. Lots of ink has been spilled on the problems Trump will face with women in the general election but it could be that his retweeted insult of Heidi Cruz and the fallout from it are starting to bite with Republican women voters too. It’ll take more than one poll and more than one state to validate that, but it’s something to watch if Cruz’s numbers begin rising elsewhere. Is the anti-Trump wing of the party writ large that’s unifying behind him or is it Republican women specifically, alienated by Trump, who are breaking his way?
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Among men in Republican primary, Trump supported by 35%, compared to 24% of women. Cruz at 40% and 39% respectively. #mulawpoll
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#1. To: TooConservative (#0)
All of the talk show hosts at WISN, Milwaukee's conservative radio station, are supporting Cruz. And they all hate Trump. That includes Mark Belling, who sometimes fills in for Rush. It's gotten so bad, I rarely listen to him now. I think the hard-core liberals at the old Air America radio network were nicer. The Republican Party of Wisconsin has 42 total delegates: 18 are statewide delegates, while 24 will come from the 8 districts.
You understate how much they hate him. I heard an interview the top guy did with Trump where he asked Trump if he knew before the interview that he was a sworn NeverTrumper. Trump was clearly taken aback. I heard later that Trump hung up on him. Trump really offends a state like Wisconsin. They're rigorously polite, like Canadians are. And they drink like fish, just like the Canadians do. Perhaps you know more about WI's process than I. I've seen WI described as "winner take all, by district and by state". Does that mean that the delegates are awarded by the 8 districts then the majority of those 24 delegates are used to award the 18 at-large delegates with the entire 42 going to the overall winner? I can't find a good description of exactly how this works in the Wisconsin GOP primary. And the Dem primary there is proportional, like the rest of the Dim primaries.
From what I have heard, I thought Wisconsin was winner take all by State, period. I was for Cruz all the way at the beginning, but his Clinton-esque type campaign is disgusting me more by the day. Obama has played at being a president while enjoying the perks … golf, insanely expensive vacations at tax-payer expense. He has ignored the responsibilities of the job; no plans, no budgets, no alternatives … just finger pointing; making him a complete failure as a president
They claimed he "hung up" on Vicki McKenna. I happen to have been listening to that interview, and she got the 26 minutes they agreed to. She was dragging it out and he kept saying, "I gotta go ... good talking to you ... I have to go now" and then he finally hung up. Her response was, "I can't believe he hung up on me". "Does that mean that the delegates are awarded by the 8 districts then ..." If a candidate has the most total statewide votes, he is awarded 18 delegates. For each separate district he wins, he is awarded 3 additional delegates.
But in the end, does one candidate end up with all the delegates? I do see this page at WisPolitics.com. I can see that it is possible that Cruz could take all 42.
Now the question is can the press keep the Cruz scandals and his not being a NBC under cover till next Tuesday?
Eli, Eli, nai erchomai Kurios Iesous.
It's a bizarre fantasy to think that the press would ever carry any water for Cruz. It's Trump they give all the free media to. And not because they like him. They intend to use him to wound or even destroy the GOP. Why else would they have given him $2 billion in free media coverage?
" NBC under cover " = ??
Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
It's Trump they give all the free media to. And not because they like him. They intend to use him to wound or even destroy the GOP. Why else would they have given him $2 billion in free media coverage? Why do you desire to spin so much. Truth is Trump goes on the shows and the othes are chicken. All the reporters say that. Where did you get that 2 billion from? You just made it up. Making stuff up is lying. Here is how the GOP is destroyed. They don't give the nomination to whoever gets the most delegates. If that happens I will never vote GOP for the rest of my life. I already intend on voting for one democrat against the POS Portman. He taught his kid to be a queer. Maybe he even molested him.
Natural born citizen.
Of course. Thanks. Tired, should have figured that. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
Stone, TC is discussing the HUGE value of free media coverage. The value of FREE media exposure is incalculable.
Yeah, right. You'll bend over next election and take it.
They did a study and that was the number they came up with. It was a some time back.
I don't know who "they" is. Did " they" also calculate the value given to Cruz from Glen Beck, and Mark Levin. Those two radio shows are solid airtime for Cruz. They do not talk about any thing else. The whole show is either slam Trump, or lovefest for Cruz. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
Noteworthy for being a statistical dead heat within the large margin on error.
As I've said many times, the polls this year are worse and have much less track record and larger margins of error than in past election cycles. Even so, these WI numbers look more and more grim for Trump. Without Kasich in the race drawing off votes from Cruz, Trump would be at a huge disadvantage.
It is obvious that you are a cruz supporter, so let me ask you a couple of quesitons. Do you believe that the US is a Constitutional Republic? If so, do you believe that the US Constitution is the supreme law of the land? If so, do you believe that, as it is stated in Article Two section five, that a man must me a Natural Born Citizen, to be President? Did you know that there are no less than Four Supreme Court rulings on the subject? If so, have you read them? Eli, Eli, nai erchomai Kurios Iesous.
Natural Born Citizen, Cruz is not. Eli, Eli, nai erchomai Kurios Iesous.
If so, have you read them? I've read a fair amount, back when the effort (Oily Taitz, Trump) to demonstrate 0bama was not natural born. My conclusion was that the Supremes have steadily hid behind whatever statutes the Congress had in place on the NBC status and issued the most narrow judgments they could. On some matters, the Court are real cowards. Similarly, we saw a hiatus by the Court on taking any gun rights cases for fifty years until Heller and a few others came along just a few years back.
I have and I have posted them on MaineTV.net
Eli, Eli, nai erchomai Kurios Iesous.
#2. To: misterwhite (#1)
All of the talk show hosts at WISN, Milwaukee's conservative radio station, are supporting Cruz. And they all hate Trump.
The Republican Party of Wisconsin has 42 total delegates: 18 are statewide delegates, while 24 will come from the 8 districts.
#3. To: TooConservative (#2)
I've seen WI described as "winner take all, by district and by state".
#4. To: TooConservative (#2)
"I heard later that Trump hung up on him."
#5. To: misterwhite (#4)
If a candidate has the most total statewide votes, he is awarded 18 delegates. For each separate district he wins, he is awarded 3 additional delegates.
So if this is accurate, it sounds a lot more like a winner-take-most state than winner-take-all. Wisconsin's 42 GOP delegates will be awarded based on the results of the April 5 primary, both through the statewide results and in each congressional district. Whichever candidate wins a plurality of the statewide race will receive 18 of those delegates, while candidates also will pick up three for each of the eight congressional districts in which they place first.
#6. To: TooConservative (#0)
#7. To: BobCeleste (#6)
#8. To: BobCeleste (#6)
#9. To: TooConservative (#7)
It's a bizarre fantasy to think that the press would ever carry any water for Cruz.
#10. To: Stoner (#8)
" NBC under cover " = ??
#11. To: A K A Stone (#10)
" Natural born citizen. "
#12. To: A K A Stone, TooConservative (#9)
Where did you get that 2 billion from? You just made it up. Making stuff up is lying.
#13. To: A K A Stone (#9)
If that happens I will never vote GOP for the rest of my life.
#14. To: A K A Stone (#9)
Where did you get that 2 billion from? You just made it up. Making stuff up is lying.
#15. To: TooConservative, A K A Stone (#14)
#16. To: TooConservative (#0)
Noteworthy for many reasons,
#17. To: nolu chan (#16)
#18. To: TooConservative (#7)
#19. To: Stoner (#8)
" NBC under cover " = ??
#20. To: BobCeleste (#18)
Did you know that there are no less than Four Supreme Court rulings on the subject?
#21. To: TooConservative (#20)
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