LF: Trump hits record high in new poll with 48 percent of Republicans backing him for White House nomination

Title: Trump hits record high in new poll with 48 percent of Republicans backing him for White House nomination
Source: Daily Mail Online
URL Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art ... ng-White-House-nomination.html
Published: Mar 29, 2016
Author: Nikki Schwab, U.s. Political Reporter Fo
Post Date: 2016-03-29 10:01:18 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 2751
Comments: 26

Donald Trump is slowly but surely getting more Republican voters comfortable with the concept of him being the GOP nominee.

A new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll that dropped this morning shows that 48 percent of Republicans are now supporting the frontrunner – a record high – with 27 percent standing behind Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 18 percent selecting Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

All three candidates saw a slight boost in support, likely coming from previously undecided Republican voters and those who were once supporting Florida Sen. Marco Rubio before he dropped out on March 15.

Republican frontrunner Donald Trump got a slight boost in his polling numbers against Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich and now he's more than 20 points ahead of Cruz

Donald Trump received a three-point polling boost this weeks as he gets closer and closer to hitting the 50 percent support mark

Not surprisingly, supporters of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (left) and Ohio Gov. John Kasich (right) are less keen to let Donald Trump win the nomination with a plurality and not a majority

Before today the highest number Trump had received was 47 percent support in a CNN/ORC poll that came out earlier this month, according to Real Clear Politics.

Not only did Trump see a slight bump in the numbers – he's up 3 percent this week – but a majority of Republicans are now saying they believe he should get the nomination if he's ahead in the delegate count.

Right now Trump has, by the Wall Street Journal's account, 274 more delegates than Cruz, giving him a commanding lead in the race to 1,237 delegates.

Trump has argued that because the field was so large to begin with, that he should be able to clinch the nomination with a plurality.

Kasich especially has argued that if Trump doesn't cross that line, then the primaries should go into overtime at this July's Republican National Convention in Cleveland.

A majority of Republican voters are on Trump's side – 57 percent say he should win the nomination with a plurality of delegates.

On the flip side, 27 percent disagree and believe he should not win the nomination with a plurality, while 14 percent said they weren't sure.

Not surprisingly, it's Trump supporters who predominantly hold this stance and because they make up so much of the electorate they propel their view into the majority.

When Trump supporters are surveyed alone on the question of a plurality win, 89 percent say The Donald should get the nomination without crossing the 1,237 delegate line.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is seeing the tightest race yet, as she's only 6 points ahead of her rival, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders

Meanwhile, 2 percent say no and 2 percent say they don't know.

When non-Trump supporters are asked if Trump should win with a plurality just 30 percent say yes and 53 percent say no, with 2 percent saying that they don't know.

Kasich and Cruz supporters are in favor of a plurality win at about the same rate.

Twenty-four percent of Kasich supporters say Trump should win with a plurality, while 56 percent argue that he needs a majority.

On the Cruz side, 32 percent say Trump should win with a plurality while 51 percent say he shouldn't.

Finally, 52 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they'd be happy with a Trump versus Hillary Clinton match-up in the fall.

Another 30 percent say they'd look for a third-party candidate to step in.

And on the Democratic side Clinton is finding herself in a closer race than she had earlier this month on the heels of rival Bernie Sanders' trio of wins in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington state.

The Democratic frontrunner now receives 49 percent support nationally to Sanders' 43 percent.

This six points between the two Democratic candidates is the smallest gap since the tracking poll began in late December.

So if Trump needs 1237 and gets 1200, and Cruz gets 500, and Kasich gets 100, 43% of Republican voters believe the nomination should go to ... Jeb Bush.

I think the RNC has made it clear that all Trump has is votes but it takes delegates to win the nomination.

If they give it to Jeb, that is what will happen. Then when Hillary takes the White Hut, the GOPe will blame everyone but themselves.

Certainly a likely scenario. But it is possible that Trump would run third- party and take enough blue-collar and minority votes from Hillary to win.

If you think about it, this would be ideal for the Republican Party. They wash their hands of Trump, they maintain their pristine party principles, and they get a conservative in the White House. Since he's a "third-party independent", Republicans in Congress could vote against him with impunity unless he tempers his agenda to suit them.