LF: Trump hits record high in new poll with 48 percent of Republicans backing him for White House nomination

Title: Trump hits record high in new poll with 48 percent of Republicans backing him for White House nomination
Source: Daily Mail Online
URL Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art ... ng-White-House-nomination.html
Published: Mar 29, 2016
Author: Nikki Schwab, U.s. Political Reporter Fo
Post Date: 2016-03-29 10:01:18 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 2940
Comments: 26

Donald Trump is slowly but surely getting more Republican voters comfortable with the concept of him being the GOP nominee.

A new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll that dropped this morning shows that 48 percent of Republicans are now supporting the frontrunner – a record high – with 27 percent standing behind Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 18 percent selecting Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

All three candidates saw a slight boost in support, likely coming from previously undecided Republican voters and those who were once supporting Florida Sen. Marco Rubio before he dropped out on March 15.

Republican frontrunner Donald Trump got a slight boost in his polling numbers against Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich and now he's more than 20 points ahead of Cruz

Donald Trump received a three-point polling boost this weeks as he gets closer and closer to hitting the 50 percent support mark

Not surprisingly, supporters of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (left) and Ohio Gov. John Kasich (right) are less keen to let Donald Trump win the nomination with a plurality and not a majority

Before today the highest number Trump had received was 47 percent support in a CNN/ORC poll that came out earlier this month, according to Real Clear Politics.

Not only did Trump see a slight bump in the numbers – he's up 3 percent this week – but a majority of Republicans are now saying they believe he should get the nomination if he's ahead in the delegate count.

Right now Trump has, by the Wall Street Journal's account, 274 more delegates than Cruz, giving him a commanding lead in the race to 1,237 delegates.

Trump has argued that because the field was so large to begin with, that he should be able to clinch the nomination with a plurality.

Kasich especially has argued that if Trump doesn't cross that line, then the primaries should go into overtime at this July's Republican National Convention in Cleveland.

A majority of Republican voters are on Trump's side – 57 percent say he should win the nomination with a plurality of delegates.

On the flip side, 27 percent disagree and believe he should not win the nomination with a plurality, while 14 percent said they weren't sure.

Not surprisingly, it's Trump supporters who predominantly hold this stance and because they make up so much of the electorate they propel their view into the majority.

When Trump supporters are surveyed alone on the question of a plurality win, 89 percent say The Donald should get the nomination without crossing the 1,237 delegate line.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is seeing the tightest race yet, as she's only 6 points ahead of her rival, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders

Meanwhile, 2 percent say no and 2 percent say they don't know.

When non-Trump supporters are asked if Trump should win with a plurality just 30 percent say yes and 53 percent say no, with 2 percent saying that they don't know.

Kasich and Cruz supporters are in favor of a plurality win at about the same rate.

Twenty-four percent of Kasich supporters say Trump should win with a plurality, while 56 percent argue that he needs a majority.

On the Cruz side, 32 percent say Trump should win with a plurality while 51 percent say he shouldn't.

Finally, 52 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters say they'd be happy with a Trump versus Hillary Clinton match-up in the fall.

Another 30 percent say they'd look for a third-party candidate to step in.

And on the Democratic side Clinton is finding herself in a closer race than she had earlier this month on the heels of rival Bernie Sanders' trio of wins in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington state.

The Democratic frontrunner now receives 49 percent support nationally to Sanders' 43 percent.

This six points between the two Democratic candidates is the smallest gap since the tracking poll began in late December.

So if Trump needs 1237 and gets 1200, and Cruz gets 500, and Kasich gets 100, 43% of Republican voters believe the nomination should go to ... Jeb Bush.

I think the RNC has made it clear that all Trump has is votes but it takes delegates to win the nomination.

" Heads We Win, Tails You Lose. Fuck You Peons. If you peons do not like it, ESAD. "

Louis XV died at the end of the eighteen century. The Republican party established its rules on conventions and delegates selecting the party's nominee in the mid-nineteenth century. And the fundamental rules of the convention and the selection of the nominee has remained mostly the same since the party was founded, other than getting rid of the open practice of party bosses cutting deals in smoky backrooms.

With the Dems, their superdelegate system is more open in that it demonstrates that the party does select its own nominee, not merely accepting any old person who gets enough votes in the primary to make a serious bid. A toxic candidate (Sanders, Trump) represents enough of a threat to every elected official in either party that the party may reject them at the convention. This is an unhappy outcome generally but both parties will accept a presidential loss rather than accept a toxic candidate that will drag the entire party and its elected officials and its farm team down. The Goldwater election is often cited as an example of a toxic candidate to the voters in the general election. That isn't a fair summary overall but there is some truth in it as well. The GOP fears that Trump is exactly that kind of toxic candidate in the general election. And Trump just keeps digging that hole deeper and deeper.

Hey, did you hear that the Supreme Court split 4-4 today on a decision as to whether government unions can force non-union employees to pay union dues?

Because the court couldn't decide, the decision of the appeals court stands, and because 9 of 13 appeals courts, including the one that decided this case, are Democrat, that means that, as a matter of law, government unions CAN in fact charge non-union government employees union dues.

Like that? President Hillary will lock down all 13 appeals courts AND the Supreme Court.

Because the Democrat Supreme Court is going to empower unions to make political contributions but reverse Citizens United and stop the Kochs and other rich fat cats.

And the Democrat Supreme Court is going to uphold Executive fast-track immigration.

And your farm team is never going to have a chance to win anything, because the electorate will be permanently changed, and the election law also, long before Hillary leaves office.

You have lost. You've rejected your new Goldwater. But THIS TIME, the populace has changed so much, and the campaign finance laws, that you're never going to recover.

I'll be sad you didn't come to your senses and choose my Trump, but you'll be sadder, and that will make me happy.