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Title: Putin Issues Ultimatum; Georgia Stands Alone (Updated)
Source: Wired
URL Source: http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/08/russia-issued-a.html
Published: Aug 11, 2008
Author: Noah Shachtman
Post Date: 2008-08-11 21:05:12 by A K A Stone
Keywords: None
Views: 265

Russian troops have already routed Georgian forces in the breakaway region South Ossetia. Now, Moscow has seized Georgia's military base at Senaki. The Russians have issued an ultimatum to Georgia's military to surrender in and around the pro-Russian separatist enclave of Abkhazia, the New York Times reports. And everybody is wondering whether "whether Russia... will push beyond these regions and further into Georgia."

[UPDATE: Actually, that's been answered; Russian armored vehicles have rolled a full 25 miles into Georgian territory.]

On Monday, Russian planes also bombed targets across Georgia, including roads and bridges, President Saakashvili said before cutting his news conference short to flee to a bomb shelter because, he said, Russian planes were flying over the presidential palace in Tblisi, the Georgian capital...

Shota Utiashvili, an official in the Georgian Interior Ministry, said the Russians had moved tanks and troops to within a few kilometers of [the 50,000-person northern city of] Gori and were “trying to cut the country in half.”

Vladimir Putin says all Russia is trying to do is bring its "peacekeeping mission to the logical conclusion.” And he warned the U.S. not to get involved. "It's a pity that some of our partners instead of helping are in fact trying to get in the way," Putin said at a Cabinet meeting. "I mean among other things the United States airlifting Georgia's military contingent from Iraq effectively into the conflict zone."

Georgia certainly identifies with -- and considered itself an ally of -- the West. After fighting broke out, Georgian state television even switched from the national news to the anti-Russian, Cold War classic flick "Red Dawn." So it's understandable that the people there are begging for Western help -- they're even looking for Israel to pressure Russia. But despite strong words from U.S. bigwigs, it's become increasingly clear that nobody is coming to Georgia's aid. "Georgians are wondering, where is NATO? NATO isn't coming. Deal with it. Saakashvilli staked his presidency on it and failed. Find new leaders, leaders who will find a way of satisfying Russian demands. Otherwise, nothing will ever get better or change in Georgia," Sean-Paul Kelley says. Saakashvilli "provoked this fight... And as [the Russians] continue their drive to Gori it's clear that when this is over and the time to make peace arrives Russia will be in a position of strength."

"The world has sent a signal to Russia[:] your strategic objectives are acceptable," writes Galrahn at Information Dissimenation. And it's a lesson "that will not be lost on other states that share a border with Russia, Nightwatch notes.

(Photo: AP/ Yahoo)

UPDATE: In some ways, all of this unfolded (at least at first) exactly how President Saakashvili wanted: "The image reverberating around the world is that of Russia's recidivist invasion against one of its tiny neighbors. Moscow stepped right into the trap Tbilisi had laid for it," Dmitri Trenin writes. "The conflict is no longer about Russia and Georgia, he says, it is about American/Western values. Georgia is a frontline state in the emerging new confrontation: a democratic David fighting the Russian Goliath."

This is serious. Much has been prophesized recently about the advent of a new Cold War, and the recent developments in the Caucasus, at least in their superficial and very partial interpretation, seem to corroborate the story.

Yet, the United States and Europe need to pause and think. Standing up for Georgia is one thing, but following Saakashvili's script is another. So far, each step in the Caucasus drama has put the conflict on a yet higher plane. The next step will no longer be just about the Caucasus, or even Europe. Remember the Guns of August.


Poster Comment:

Georgian state television even switched from the national news to the anti-Russian, Cold War classic flick "Red Dawn." So it's understandable that the people there are begging for Western help -- Love Red Dawn

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