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Title: Latest votes deliver anything but clarity in GOP race
Source:
Associated Press
URL Source: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/c951 ... iver-anything-clarity-gop-race
Published: Mar 6, 2016
Author: Nancy Benac and Jill Colvin
Post Date: 2016-03-06 09:51:31 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 314
Comments: 7
Offering anything but clarity, Republicans delivered a split verdict between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in the latest round of presidential voting, offering fresh evidence of the turmoil still roiling the GOP after 19 states have had their say. Trump, still the front-runner in the delegate count, bagged Kentucky and Louisiana on Saturday. Cruz, cementing his claim to be the Trump alternative, captured Kansas and Maine. Trump said it was time for Marco Rubio to exit the race. But the Florida senator insisted he was still fixing to win his home state of Florida on March 15. Democrats also split their votes on Saturday, with Hillary Clinton picking up a victory in Louisiana's primary while Bernie Sanders grabbed caucus wins in Nebraska and Kansas. Even so, Sanders fell further behind in his effort to overtake Clinton's commanding lead in delegates. The state tally sheets so far: 12 wins for Trump; six for Cruz and one for Rubio. For the Democrats, 11 for Clinton and seven for Sanders. Trump and Clinton hold the edge in the more-important delegate count. Puerto Rico Republicans will add their voices to the conversation on Sunday, as will Maine Democrats. With the GOP race in chaos, establishment figures are frantically looking for any way to derail Trump, perhaps at a contested convention if no candidate can get enough delegates to lock up the nomination before the party meets in July. Party leaders — including 2012 nominee Mitt Romney and 2008 nominee Sen. John McCain — are fearful a Trump victory would lead to a disastrous November election, with losses up and down the GOP ticket. Trump, at a post-election news conference in West Palm Beach, Florida, flatly predicted he'd win the nomination outright before the convention, likening it to a knock-out blow in boxing. "The way I guarantee victory is get enough delegates, so I don't have to worry," he said. Cruz, for his part, said his strong showing was "a manifestation of a real shift in momentum." "What it represents is Republicans coalescing, saying it would be a disaster for Donald Trump to be our nominee," he said. Both men were itching to go at it one-on-one. "Oh, do I want to run against Ted," said Trump, ticking off a list of large states where he said Cruz had no chance. "That will be easy." Ohio Gov. John Kasich, also still in the mix but far behind, was holding out hope for a better showing next week in Michigan and in his home state of Ohio on March 15. Clinton, campaigning in Detroit, said she was thrilled to add to her delegate count and expected to do well in Michigan's primary on Tuesday. "No matter who wins this Democratic nomination," she said, "I have not the slightest doubt that on our worst day we will be infinitely better than the Republicans on their best day." Sanders, who won by comfortable margins in Nebraska and Kansas, said in an interview with The Associated Press that his solid victories were evidence his political revolution is underway. Stressing the importance of voter turnout, he said, "when large numbers of people come — working people, young people who have not been involved in the political process — we will do well and I think that is bearing out tonight." The two Democrats were preparing to spar in their seventh debate on Sunday in Flint, Michigan, with trade and economic policy sure to be prime subjects. Clinton picked up at least 55 delegates to Sanders' 47 in Saturday's contests, with seven delegates yet to be allocated. Overall, Clinton had at least 1,121 delegates to Sanders' 479, including superdelegates — members of Congress, governors and party officials who can support the candidate of their choice. It takes 2,383 delegates to win the Democratic nomination. Cruz won at least 64 delegates Saturday, making a small dent in Trump's lead for Republican convention delegates. Trump picked up at least 49, Rubio at least 13 and Kasich nine. Overall, Trump led with at least 378, Cruz had at least 295, Rubio 123 and Kasich 34. It takes 1,237 delegates to win the Republican nomination for president. 
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#1. To: cranky (#0)
Cruz has 295, but 155 of those are from his home state of Texas. Without Texas, he's down there with Rubio.
Game it out. Will Cruz beat Hillary? Not a chance. He is far to the right, unpopular among the politicians of his own party. If Cruz is the nominee, Hillary wins in a landslide and puts 2 or 3 Justices on the Supreme Court in 8 years. And how would Cruz become the nominee? New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, California, Florida - these have not voted yet. Trump will win all of those. The only path for Cruz is to get enough votes to, along with Rubio and Kasich (and Jeb, who still has delegates) , stop Trump from getting the majority, then going to the convention. So, at the convention, are the Trump delegates going to abandon him on the second ballot? No. Will the Cruz delegates abandon Cruz? No. The only two possible candidates are Trump and Cruz, because they're delegates aren't going to go vote for Rubio on the second ballot, or the third. If Cruz and Trump pool their delegates, they win. So, Trump/Cruz becomes the ticket and they win the nomination together (in that order). Ok. What other result can there be, really? Cruz can't win it. And neither Trump nor Cruz are going to accept any of the other candidates. Cruz can't beat Hillary, but if he makes a good enough showing, he can be on the ticket as heir to Trump. Trump will beat Hillary, and save the Supreme Court. So, the logical thing to do now is play it out, with conservatives voting for Cruz if their conscience demands it, and everybody else voting for Trump. Either Trump will win outright, or it will go to the convention and Trump and Cruz will cooperate there. You see your ticket now: Trump/Cruz. That can beat HIllary, save the Supreme Court, and give the conservatives a clear path to full power in 8 years, after Trump, just like the Bushites waited for 8 years under Reagan. Trump widens the party and can win. Cruz is the conservative conscience. Trump ain't liberal. And it's a damn sight better than Hillary. Cruz and Trump need to make sure that Rubio loses Florida and Kasich loses Ohio.
That would certainly make things interesting. It is what both Cruz and Trumps say they want. And only one of them can get the nomination, if either can. Who knows? Maybe they end up needing each other. There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't
It takes 1,237 delegates to get he nod. Doesn't matter where they come from. There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't
I understand. I'm just sayin' that half of Cruz's current numbers are from one state -- his home state of Texas.
I've heard it said his base is deep and narrow while Rubio's is wide and shallow. I love political wisdom. There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't
Truth is that Trump's is wide and deep, Cruz' is narrow and deep. And Rubio's doesn't exist. Trump will win every open primary state, and the lion's share of all of the states that have primaries. Cruz, like Santorum before him (Santorum won 11 states), will pick up some caucus states where the intensity of conservatism will matter. But in the end, Cruz can't amass nearly as many as Trump, and nobody but those two can amass anything significant. Not hard to see the endgame. Trump and Cruz race, Trump has more. If he has enough to win outright, he's the nominee. If he doesn't, and it goes to the convention, after the first ballot the convention is open. It's open, but that doesn't mean that Cruz delegates stop believing in Cruz, or Trump delegates stop believing in Trump. if you combine Kasich and Jeb, you don't get a majority. So in the end , Cruz's delegates back Trump for the Presidency, and Trump appoints Cruz as his Vice Presidential candidate. That gives the conservatives a foot in the game, just like the liberals had with H W Bush in Reagan's White House. Cruz's presence reunites the conservatives to the party, with him, and Trump's head of the ticket status blitzes Hillary in the general, and people as diverse as A K A Stone, you and me all vote, pretty happily, for the GOP, along with Reagan Democrats. The Supreme Court remains in Republican control. It's all quite good, really.
"Overall, Trump led with at least 378, Cruz had at least 295, Rubio 123 and Kasich 34."
#2. To: cranky (#0)
#3. To: Vicomte13 (#2)
Cruz and Trump need to make sure that Rubio loses Florida and Kasich loses Ohio.
#4. To: misterwhite (#1)
Cruz has 295, but 155 of those are from his home state of Texas. Without Texas, he's down there with Rubio.
#5. To: cranky (#4)
"It takes 1,237 delegates to get he nod."
#6. To: misterwhite (#5)
I'm just sayin' that half of Cruz's current numbers are from one state -- his home state of Texas.
#7. To: cranky (#6)
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