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Title: S.C.: After Haley endorsement, Rubio overtakes Cruz; pressure on Bush
Source:
Princeton Election Consortium
URL Source: http://election.princeton.edu/2016/ ... osts-rubio-to-a-strong-second/
Published: Feb 20, 2016
Author: Sam Wang
Post Date: 2016-02-20 13:09:20 by Hondo68
Ping List: *2016 The Likely Suspects* Subscribe to *2016 The Likely Suspects*
Keywords: Rubio surged 5.5 percent, Trump has leaked 5.5 points, Cruz has lost 2, Kasich gained
Views: 2754
Comments: 16
It seems likely that Donald Trump is headed for another win today – but a closer one than I would have expected even a few days ago. In 4 polls taken February 16-19*, the medians are Trump 33%, Rubio 20.5%, Cruz 18.5%, Bush 9.5%, Kasich 8.5%, Carson 6%. Rubio may do even better than these numbers would indicate, since his surge is quite recent. The graph at left shows the running median, which I estimated day by day. In a significant trend in the last week, many Trump and Cruz supporters got on the fence after the debate on the 13th, which was an insult-laden spectacle. Trump has slowly leaked 5.5 points of support and Cruz has lost 2 points (and Kasich gained a few points). Then, on Wednesday February 17th, South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley endorsed Rubio. Immediately after, Rubio surged by 5.5 percentage points compared with 7 pre-endorsement polls, Feb. 13-17 sample, showing a median of 15.0 ± 0.5%. Even the newest polls still have at least half their sample coming before the Haley endorsement. So Rubio will likely outperform them, and maybe get into the mid-20s. Trump is in the news again for going after Pope Francis on the 18th an unbelievable event all by itself. I think Rubio is headed for a strong second-place finish. Seems like he’s got some life in him yet. Trump will probably still hang on to first place. That should give him at least 44 of South Carolina’s 50 delegates. Given the all-or-none nature of delegate assignment (29 statewide delegates and 7 Congressional districts of 3 delegates each), Rubio could pick off a district or two. Haley’s bigger impact might be driving Jeb Bush out of the race. If she had endorsed Bush, the results would probably look more like a four-man race. The ongoing presence of Bush, Kasich, and Carson is a drain on Cruz and Rubio because of delegate-assignment rules in the next few weeks, which often have a 15-20% threshold requirement. The more candidates remain, the more likely it is that Trump can get a majority of the delegates between now and Super Tuesday on March 1st. I previously wrote that Super Tuesday is a deadline for the Republican Presidential field to narrow. If Haley helps accomplish that, it’s a substantial contribution to her party’s Establishment wing. *The nominal one-sigma uncertainties on the medians are 1.6-2.0% for Trump/Rubio/Cruz/Kasich, 0.7% for Bush/Carson. I excluded a Harper (R) poll that did not have any sample post-Feb. 17th. Poster Comment: In the Lindsey Graham state, Rubio and Kasich are gaining popularity. 
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#1. To: hondo68 (#0)
Well! There you have it! If Trump wins by 23 points instead of 28 points, that's equivalent to a loss! Trump is doomed! Doomed, I tell ya!
Trump is doomed! If that near vertical line downward continues, he's finished alright. He can always go back to sucking up to the Clintons... If the actual voting proves the polls correct Bush, Kasich and Carson should wave bye-bye.
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
So far in the Republican contest we have 25-35 % Trump supporters and 65-75% looking for another candidate. That suggests that the selection is still undecided. Let's wait for a couple of winner take all states to have their primaries before we crown Napoleon the next emperor .
"If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato
Bush and Kasich leave and the GOP elites could have their man Rubio on top! But polls are not reliable so I will see what the results are. In the Lindsey Graham state, Rubio and Kasich are gaining popularity. OMG what would you expect from a state that elected Lady Graham how many times?
No. They should stay in until the bitter end. Bush can win Florida. Carson can win.
With Cruz and Rubio. You have 12 to 18 percent and 82 to 88 percent looking for someone else. That liar thing is starting to stick on Cruz.
No. They should stay in until the bitter end. Bush can win Florida. Carson can win. Yeah, stand in so that they all can lose to Hillary. I guess you think that a brokered convention will unify the party. Riiiiiiight............... потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
When was that picture taken ... 1970?
Can he last until March 15th? In 2012, the Florida primary was January 31st. Had they maintained the same order in 2016, that could have helped Bush. Now it's too little too late.
Bush just needs to think he can win Florida. That way his vote doesn't go to Mexubio.
They're going to try to make Rubio the nominee. It won't work. In Open Primary states, crossover Democrats, who will vote for Trump in the general, will keep Trump well out in front no matter what the establishment does. Trump/Cruz would be a reasonable ticket.
Bush bowed out tonight.
For when we were still without strength, in due time Christ died for the ungodly. For scarcely for a righteous man will one die; yet perhaps for a good man someone would even dare to die. But God demonstrates His own love toward us, in that while we were still sinners, Christ died for us. (Romans 5:6-8)
getting interesting.
Eli, Eli, nai erchomai Kurios Iesous.
Bush His brothers representative met with Jake, asked if there was any way jeb could get the support of the Right, he was told NO. Eli, Eli, nai erchomai Kurios Iesous.
Time for Carson and Kasich to do so. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
"It seems likely that Donald Trump is headed for another win today – but a closer one than I would have expected even a few days ago."
#2. To: misterwhite (#1)
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#3. To: hondo68, All (#0)
#4. To: misterwhite (#1)
#5. To: hondo68 (#0)
#6. To: SOSO (#3)
If the actual voting proves the polls correct Bush, Kasich and Carson should wave bye-bye.
#7. To: tomder55 (#4)
So far in the Republican contest we have 25-35 % Trump supporters and 65-75%
#8. To: A K A Stone (#6)
If the actual voting proves the polls correct Bush, Kasich and Carson should wave bye-bye.
#9. To: hondo68 (#2)
"He can always go back to sucking up to the Clintons."
#10. To: A K A Stone (#6)
"Bush can win Florida."
#11. To: misterwhite (#10)
#12. To: A K A Stone (#11)
#13. To: SOSO (#3)
#14. To: hondo68 (#0)
#15. To: redleghunter (#13)
Bush bowed out tonight.
bowed Was Forced out tonight.
#16. To: redleghunter (#13)
Bush bowed out tonight.
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