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The Establishments war on Donald Trump
See other The Establishments war on Donald Trump Articles

Title: The Specter of Donald Trump Is Haunting Davos
Source: Bloomberg News
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic ... -pray-for-spring-reality-check
Published: Jan 21, 2016
Author: Jeff Black
Post Date: 2016-01-21 10:42:17 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 823
Comments: 5

If Donald Trump as president of the United States is the ghost that’s stalking Davos, many among the global elite hope he’ll be banished by spring. Others see that as wishful thinking.

“I think the nominees will be Donald Trump for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton” for the Democrats, Donald Baer, a former White House adviser under President Bill Clinton, said at a panel co-hosted by Bloomberg and WPP Plc. “The next year will be a very uncertain, chaotic period.”

Eric Cantor, left, Donald Baer, center, and Martin Sorrell speak at Davos.

The prospect of Trump in the White House is ratcheting up anxiety among the 2,500 business and political leaders gathered at the Swiss ski resort for the annual World Economic Forum. With less than two weeks before voting in primaries gets under way and Trump in the Republican Party lead, those who fear a rise in protectionism and economic mismanagement are speaking out against the billionaire property developer.

“Unfortunately I do think that if there were to be a Trump administration the casualty would likely be trade,” said Eric Cantor, a former Republican House Majority Leader and now vice chairman of Moelis & Company. “That’s a very serious prospect for the world.” ‘Disaster’

Cantor said he doesn’t think Trump will make it through the primaries, a common theme among Davos attendees who nevertheless are still talking about him. Trump’s positions --like a “temporary” ban on Muslims entering the country and the building of a wall on the Mexican border -- are earning him opprobrium in the mountain resort.

He has also railed at the loss of U.S. jobs to overseas competitors, and on Tuesday said that as president he would “get Apple to start building their damn computers and things” in the U.S., instead of China. A Trump administration would be a “disaster,” according to Beth Brooke-Marciniak, global vice chair of public policy at Ernst & Young LLP and a former adviser to the U.S. Treasury in the Clinton administration.

“The globe needs the U.S. to be strong,” she said. “The U.S. is still the horse that’s pulling the cart, and more so now with the capital outflows from emerging markets.” Populist Wave

The presidential race shows that the U.S. is not immune to the wave of populism sweeping the globe. In the U.S. case, the economy has recovered faster than other developed nations from the global slump of 2008 and 2009, and yet wages haven’t kept pace with a rebound in corporate profits. That’s helping candidates like Trump and Bernie Sanders who say the system is rigged against average Americans.

While Trump’s specter looms large, not many assume he’ll actually make it to the White House.

“I am amazed at Davos about how many people are taking Trump as seriously as they are,” said Martin Sorrell, WPP’s chief executive. “I think it doesn’t matter who the Republicans put up, I think Hillary will win.”

Sorrell said he thinks the Republican nomination will go either to Trump or to Texas Senator Ted Cruz. On Wednesday, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin endorsed Trump, lending the support of a Tea Party favorite. Still, that’s not a constituency with many members in Davos.

“If you bother to read some of the serious analysis of Trump’s support, you realize that it’s a very fragile thing and highly unlikely to deliver what he needs in the crucial first phase of the primaries,” said Niall Ferguson, Laurence A. Tisch professor of history at Harvard University. “By the time we get to March-April, it’s all over. I think there’s going to be a wonderful catharsis, I’m really looking forward to it: Trump’s humiliation. Bring it on.”

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 3.

#1. To: cranky (#0)

“If you bother to read some of the serious analysis of Trump’s support, you realize that it’s a very fragile thing and highly unlikely to deliver what he needs in the crucial first phase of the primaries,” said Niall Ferguson, Laurence A. Tisch professor of history at Harvard University.

Ferguson may have a point. Everything I hear is that he has not set up a serious ground game in either Iowa or NH . He may have more fans than voters.

tomder55  posted on  2016-01-21   12:14:05 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: tomder55 (#1)

Everything I hear is that he has not set up a serious ground game in either Iowa or NH .

It's a little late to be putting one together now.

cranky  posted on  2016-01-21   12:50:04 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: cranky (#2)

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/us/politics/donald-trumps-iowa-ground-game- seems-to-be-missing-a-coach.html?_r=0

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/does-donald-trump-have-a-new-hampshire-ground-game- does-it-matter/

tomder55  posted on  2016-01-21   13:53:32 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 3.

#4. To: tomder55 (#3)

does donald trump have a new hampshire ground gamed and does it matter

"We differ, because everyone is focused on likely Republican voters," Stepanek said. "We are focused on low propensity voters because they are not somebody who is normally on anybody's radar screens. But we look at our polls and we are so strong in that area. Those are the people who are very angry. We're focused on getting those people motivated."

The NH campaign co-chair seems to think they're doing what they need to do.

cranky  posted on  2016-01-21 20:27:44 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 3.

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