[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

"International court’s attack on Israel a sign of the free world’s moral collapse"

"Pete Hegseth Is Right for the DOD"

"Why Our Constitution Secures Liberty, Not Democracy"

Woodworking and Construction Hacks

"CNN: Reporters Were Crying and Hugging in the Hallways After Learning of Matt Gaetz's AG Nomination"

"NEW: Democrat Officials Move to Steal the Senate Race in Pennsylvania, Admit to Breaking the Law"

"Pete Hegseth Is a Disruptive Choice for Secretary of Defense. That’s a Good Thing"

Katie Britt will vote with the McConnell machine

Battle for Senate leader heats up — Hit pieces coming from Thune and Cornyn.

After Trump’s Victory, There Can Be No Unity Without A Reckoning

Vivek Ramaswamy, Dark-horse Secretary of State Candidate

Megyn Kelly has a message for Democrats. Wait for the ending.

Trump to choose Tom Homan as his “Border Czar”

"Trump Shows Demography Isn’t Destiny"

"Democrats Get a Wake-Up Call about How Unpopular Their Agenda Really Is"

Live Election Map with ticker shows every winner.

Megyn Kelly Joins Trump at His Final PA Rally of 2024 and Explains Why She's Supporting Him

South Carolina Lawmaker at Trump Rally Highlights Story of 3-Year-Old Maddie Hines, Killed by Illegal Alien

GOP Demands Biden, Harris Launch Probe into Twice-Deported Illegal Alien Accused of Killing Grayson Davis

Previously-Deported Illegal Charged With Killing Arkansas Children’s Hospital Nurse in Horror DUI Crash

New Data on Migrant Crime Rates Raises Eyebrows, Alarms

Thousands of 'potentially fraudulent voter registration applications' Uncovered, Stopped in Pennsylvania

Michigan Will Count Ballot of Chinese National Charged with Voting Illegally

"It Did Occur" - Kentucky County Clerk Confirms Voting Booth 'Glitch'' Shifted Trump Votes To Kamala

Legendary Astronaut Buzz Aldrin 'wholeheartedly' Endorses Donald Trump

Liberal Icon Naomi Wolf Endorses Trump: 'He's Being More Inclusive'

(Washed Up Has Been) Singer Joni Mitchell Screams 'F*** Trump' at Hollywood Bowl

"Analysis: The Final State of the Presidential Race"

He’ll, You Pieces of Garbage

The Future of Warfare -- No more martyrdom!

"Kamala’s Inane Talking Points"

"The Harris Campaign Is Testament to the Toxicity of Woke Politics"

Easy Drywall Patch

Israel Preparing NEW Iran Strike? Iran Vows “Unimaginable” Response | Watchman Newscast

In Logansport, Indiana, Kids are Being Pushed Out of Schools After Migrants Swelled County’s Population by 30%: "Everybody else is falling behind"

Exclusive — Bernie Moreno: We Spend $110,000 Per Illegal Migrant Per Year, More than Twice What ‘the Average American Makes’

Florida County: 41 of 45 People Arrested for Looting after Hurricanes Helene and Milton are Noncitizens

Presidential race: Is a Split Ticket the only Answer?

hurricanes and heat waves are Worse

'Backbone of Iran's missile industry' destroyed by IAF strikes on Islamic Republic

Joe Rogan Experience #2219 - Donald Trump

IDF raids Hezbollah Radwan Forces underground bases, discovers massive cache of weapons

Gallant: ‘After we strike in Iran,’ the world will understand all of our training

The Atlantic Hit Piece On Trump Is A Psy-Op To Justify Post-Election Violence If Harris Loses

Six Al Jazeera journalists are Hamas, PIJ terrorists

Judge Aileen Cannon, who tossed Trump's classified docs case, on list of proposed candidates for attorney general

Iran's Assassination Program in Europe: Europe Goes Back to Sleep

Susan Olsen says Brady Bunch revival was cancelled because she’s MAGA.

Foreign Invaders crisis cost $150B in 2023, forcing some areas to cut police and fire services: report

Israel kills head of Hezbollah Intelligence.


Status: Not Logged In; Sign In

politics and politicians
See other politics and politicians Articles

Title: Thought experiment: what if Trump carried New York?
Source: HotAir
URL Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2016/01/ ... hat-if-trump-carried-new-york/
Published: Jan 4, 2016
Author: Jazz Shaw
Post Date: 2016-01-04 12:08:28 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 486
Comments: 3

Clearly taking some time off has left the imps in my lizard hind brain with far too much time on their hands, but an interesting question came to me this morning as I reviewed more of the news I missed during the week between Christmas and New Years. There were a fair amount of laughs being had when AP posted some demographic information last week which showed that some of Donald Trump’s supporters were actually registered as Democrats. Hilarious, right? Sure. But the data that study was drawn from came from this piece in the New York Times. Let’s take another look at that map that the Times generated which showed where Trump’s support is the strongest.

TrumpSupport

Yes, The Donald has a lot of support in the south, which – assuming it holds – will serve him well on Super Tuesday after we come out of Iowa and New Hampshire. But the color coding on the map show’s the Trumpiest areas in dark red. Did you notice the one distinctly non-southern spot which is very, very crimson?
Mr. Trump’s best state is West Virginia, followed by New York. Eight of Mr. Trump’s 10 best congressional districts are in New York, including several on Long Island. North Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana and South Carolina follow.

Trump’s support is nearly the strongest in New York. Now, I can already hear what you’re thinking: That’s crazy, Jazz. Republicans don’t carry New York. It’s owned and operated by the Democrats. Well, that’s generally true, but if you spend any amount of time watching Empire State politics you know that things have been changing a bit of late. Remember that Governor Andrew Cuomo actually lost the vote in upstate New York in 2014. And he didn’t lose by a little, either. It was a wipe out. In fact he only carried eleven of the state’s 57 counties outside of the Big Apple. He still won the election, but it was a much narrower victory than the Democrats were used to enjoying and virtually all of his support came out of New York City.

Let’s put that in perspective here. Keep in mind that Trump wouldn’t actually have to win in New York City to pull this off. Cuomo’s total margin of victory was 54% and almost all of it came from the five boroughs. Trump would only need to tip the scales in the city enough to offset that 5% margin needed to swing the statewide vote because he’ll carry upstate in a landslide. (And he’s already very strong on Long Island.)

Could he pull it off? Lots of people go to work every day in New York City and see his name plastered all over everything. Trump provides one heck of a lot of jobs in the city, including plenty of people who are too busy with their own lives to spend their days watching MSNBC. And just take a walk around Brooklyn these days (assuming you can afford an armed guard for parts of it) and see how happy the locals are with the current Democrat leadership and the way things are going in the city. Could Trump pull out enough of what the Gray Lady described as his “irregular voters” to swing the Big Apple by six percent? That’s all it would take and it’s really not that big of a number when you consider how much of a wild card Trump represents.

So then what? I was unable to find it on a quick search last night, but after the 2012 elections I wrote a speculative piece about what might happen if the GOP could nominate a candidate who could carry either California or New York. At the time I assumed it would be either a total RINO or a native son like Pataki, but the rule remains the same. The Democrats go into each national election with a significant advantage in the electoral college, leaving the Republicans to fight for most of the swing states. But that advantage is anchored in California and New York. If you take either of them away the playing field is suddenly tipped over. Switching New York to the R column represents a net swing of 58 since we get 29 this time. And Trump is already very strong in Florida (the traditional bugaboo for the GOP these past couple of cycles) with a persistent lead over Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical match up. If you take New York and Florida off the table for Hillary, where is her path to victory?

Anyway, just something to think about on Monday morning as we launch into our first full week of regular business here at Hot Air during the election year. It’s a crazy concept to start with, I’m sure. But then again… lot’s of crazy things happen when you toss The Donald into the mix.


Poster Comment:

Trump v. Hitlery means that New York would have its choice of a New Yorker for prez. It is a locked-in state for Hitlery if Trump is not the GOP nominee.

If NY could be in play, surely PA isn't out of reach.(1 image)

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  


TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

#1. To: TooConservative (#0)

Trump has a lot of Democrat support because many of his positions are the same as Democrats like Bernie Sanders.

"Trump v. Hitlery means that New York would have its choice of a New Yorker for prez. It is a locked-in state for Hitlery if Trump is not the GOP nominee. "

Evita is a New Yorker like Bobby Kennedy was ...... a carpetbagger . Real NY'ers have never really embraced her .

Cuomo's challenger in 2014 was Westchester County Exec .Rob Astorino; as strong a Republican as there is in the state .

When Cuomo ran against NY businessman Carl Paladino in 2010, he wiped the floor with him.

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

tomder55  posted on  2016-01-04   12:30:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: TooConservative (#0)

some of Donald Trump’s supporters were actually registered as Democrats. Hilarious

Wanting to fix the trade - manufacturing - debt imbalance ... four years ago --- is what got my attention !

If a republican had been the president ... for the last eight years --- Iraq could've been the 51st state by now !

If you ... don't use exclamation points --- you should't be typeing ! Commas - semicolons - question marks are for girlie boys !

BorisY  posted on  2016-01-04   12:41:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: tomder55 (#1) (Edited)

When Cuomo ran against NY businessman Carl Paladino in 2010, he wiped the floor with him.

Paladino wasn't hopeless until he opened his big mouth and proved to the voters that he was an idiot that would be a disaster.

Trump might fit that template but he's already lost all the votes he can for shooting his mouth off. All the damage that can be done has already been done, I think.

We might debate all day long whether Trump is the only GOP candidate that can beat Hitlery or the only GOP candidate that can't beat Hitlery. But we can say that Trump is the only GOP candidate that could realistically put New York into play for the GOP. I think that's a long shot but you can't even discuss any other GOP candidate carrying NY. Or PA.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-01-04   13:00:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Please report web page problems, questions and comments to webmaster@libertysflame.com