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Business
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Title: So much for running out of OIL!
Source: [None]
URL Source: [None]
Published: Dec 14, 2015
Author: Me
Post Date: 2015-12-14 09:04:14 by Justified
Keywords: None
Views: 1815
Comments: 20

I remember people claiming we were running out of oil. That we have reached "peak production".

Oil just broke the $35 a barrel with no end in sight of slowing production!

Saudi's have declared war on America. They will destroy shale oil business because its kicking their butt. America was independent of its grip for the first time in my life time. Obama is happy big little oil is getting raped by the Saudi's.

I believe oil can be drilled for $30 a barrel and break even.

I believe oil can be pumped out of the ground for $14 a barrel and break even.

Get ready to see defaults in the small oil companies because $25 a barrel is coming.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 3.

#1. To: Justified (#0)

I believe oil can be drilled for $30 a barrel and break even.

You can believe the world is flat but that doesn't make it so.

The shale oil guys keep saying that their breakeven is $65/bl. They continue to pump the oil they have at a loss, hoping to outlast the bad prices. But more and more of them are zombie companies in the red. And no one has money to launch more exploration or develop new wells. This is the Saudi goal. They only have to do it for a few years to squash American production in the short term.

The Saudis continue to pump way below cost, subsidizing oil exports to around $100 billion a year. They supposedly have a cash surplus of $700-$800 billion in loose cash they can use to subsidize their oil losses and cripple American oil production.

They want all that exploration to stop and, for wells already pumping, they want to see the inevitable decline in production from such wells. Then it will be time for the Saudis to jack the price back up. But they have to worry that they can't ever go back to $100/bl again without seeing the American oil industry make another big comeback with new wells.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-12-14   9:19:49 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: TooConservative (#1)

I believe you have it right about the Saudi's and their intentions.

I think the cost of getting shale oil is much lower than $65 a barrel break even(not counting ocean rigs).

Justified  posted on  2015-12-14   9:50:23 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 3.

#4. To: Justified (#3)

I believe you have it right about the Saudi's and their intentions.

I think the cost of getting shale oil is much lower than $65 a barrel break even(not counting ocean rigs).

Yeah. But it is still stupid.

Why lose money when you don't have to? How many years will it take them to make it back up if TC is correct?

If a bunch of our guys go out of business. That isn't good. But when prices rise again there will be people doing shale again. So the Saudis gain nothing.

A K A Stone  posted on  2015-12-14 09:54:26 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 3.

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