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politics and politicians
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Title: We Have Our Final Six [GOP primary candidates]
Source: Weekly Standard
URL Source: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs ... ave-our-final-six_1055055.html
Published: Oct 28, 2015
Author: Jonathan V. Last
Post Date: 2015-10-29 07:37:13 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 4306
Comments: 39

Tonight’s debate showed that the GOP field is smaller than it looks. Technically, there are still fourteen people running, but the winnowing is far along. We probably have a final six and possibly a final four.

The three winners of the night were pretty obvious: Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump.

Rubio ended Jeb Bush’s campaign with the kind of body shot that buckles your knees. That’s on Bush, who never should have come after Rubio in that spot for a host of strategic and tactical reasons. But what should scare Hillary Clinton is how effortless Rubio is even with throwaway lines, like “I’m against anything that’s bad for my mother.” Most people have no idea how fearsome raw political talent can be. Clinton does know because she’s seen it up close. She sleeps next to it for a contractually-obligated 18 nights per year.

Cruz was tough and canny—no surprise there. He went the full-Gingrich in his assault on CNBC’s ridiculous moderators. He did a better job explaining Social Security reform than Chris Christie, even (which is no mean feat). And managed to look downright personable compared with John Harwood, whose incompetence was matched only by his unpleasantness. If you’re a conservative voter looking for someone who is going to fight for your values, Cruz must have looked awfully attractive.

Then there was Trump. Over the last few weeks, Trump has gotten better on the stump. Well, don’t look now, but he’s getting better at debates, too. Trump was reasonably disciplined. He kept his agro to a medium-high level. And his situational awareness is getting keener, too. Note how he backed John Kasich into such a bad corner on Lehmann Brothers that he protested, “I was a banker, and I was proud of it!” When that’s your answer, you’ve lost the exchange. Even at a Republican debate.

And Trump had a hammer close: “Our country doesn’t win anymore. We used to win. We don’t anymore.” I remain convinced that this line (along with his hardliner on immigration) is the core of Trump’s appeal. But he didn’t just restate this theme in his closing argument. He used it to: (1) beat up CNBC; and (2) argue that his man-handling of these media twits is an example of what he’ll do as president. It was brilliant political theater.

Those were your winners. You also saw tonight several campaigns which are over, even if the candidates don’t know it yet. Kasich was less likable than Rand Paul. Rand Paul was mostly invisible, and petulant when he was visible. Mike Huckabee wasn’t visible enough, except when he was doing his populist defense of Medicare and Social Security. But the effectiveness of this spot was diminished by Cruz’s excellent response, which is what people are apt to remember. There just isn’t enough space for him to make an impact by dint of personality in a field with a bunch of other strong and attractive personalities. And as for Bush? Jeb’s dead, baby. Jeb’s dead.

That leaves us with Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Ben Carson, who, by the way, is actually leading the field in some polls.

Christie was as impressive tonight as he could be, given his position. He had a great opening. His interjection on regulating fantasy football was tremendous. The “Even in New Jersey what you’re doing is called rude” line to Harwood just killed. If the establishment had jumped on Christie early, instead of being scared off by the GW bridge scandal and going for Bush . . . well, this race would probably be different. But they didn’t. That said, we’ll keep Christie in our final grouping because he’s so talented that he’s always going to have a puncher’s chance.

Fiorina had a solid debate, but wasn’t the run-away winner she’d been in the first two debates. If her numbers couldn’t hold when she was the class of the field, I doubt they’ll move much when she’s merely on the high-side of the average. It looks more and more like Fiorina isn’t running to win the nomination.

And what to do about Carson? Gentle Ben was fine—great in some moments; pedestrian in others. I don’t think many people in the media fully grasp the passion for Carson, but that doesn’t make it any less real. And if you look at the history of Iowa, and Carson’s numbers now, it’s not hard to imagine him doing very well there.

So there’s your final six: Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz, and maybe—just maybe—Fiorina and Christie.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 2.

#2. To: TooConservative, all (#0)

I did not get to see much, had streaming issues. Hope there will be a re run on You Tube.

But a few points I did like, I liked Christie making an issue of talking about " Fantasy Football " with all of the far more important issues facing the nation, Bush talking about his " Fantasy Football Team " made him look very juvenile, I like all the slaps to the media by Cruz & others, and I really liked Huckabee's statement that he had taken on the Clinton's & lived to tell about it, LOL. Hope he does not wake up in Fort Marcy Park. ;)

I think that at least Bush, Kaisich, and a few others should throw in the towel & go home.

I will be interested to see others observations.

Stoner  posted on  2015-10-29   8:43:52 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 2.

#4. To: Stoner (#2)

The pundits are all panning Bush. I'm counting the hours until someone refers to him as "dead man walking" or "the Walking Dead candidate" or similar.

Cruz and Christie and Rubio might all gain some points and backing to stay in the race. I don't think any of the others did. Trump and Carson will likely stay in the lead for a while longer.

I think a breakout would come when you see a Rubio or Cruz hit 15% in some major polls.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-10-29 08:49:03 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Stoner (#2)

I think that at least Bush, Kaisich, and a few others should throw in the towel & go home.

Bush is under a lot of pressure as the Bush Crime Family representative,the political future of the family,as well as their expanding wealth from influence peddling all rests on his shoulders.

If/when he loses,they are no longer infallible and automatic front runners drawing all the cash donations and the free media. JEB's criminal son may not even be able to get elected in Texas. The best they can hope for is his daughter getting voted as "Miss Congeniality" in some upscale rehab center.

Look at what happened to the Kennedy Klan after Fat Teddy died. They can't even hold on to seats they won long enough to serve out their terms.

I realize that my dream of prison time for most of them,and then selling pencils on street corners after release will never come true,but can settle for them being out of government everywhere in the country.

sneakypete  posted on  2015-10-29 10:18:44 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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