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The Establishments war on Donald Trump Title: Trump Continues to Dominate, Bush Fades Trump Continues to Dominate, Bush Fades nolu chan [Poll Fox web page] http://personal.crocodoc.com/zMOW3bp [Poll PDF] BOLD indicates those candidates who are higher in September than in August on this same Fox poll.
26% Donald Trump 25%
18% Ben Carson 12%
09% Carly Fiorina 05%
09% Marco Rubio 04%
08% Ted Cruz 10%
07% Jeb Bush 09%
05% Chris Christie 03%
04% John Kasich 04%
03% Mike Huckabee 06%
02% Rand Paul 03%
01% George Pataki 01%
00% Jim Gilmore **
00% Rick Santorum --
00% Bobby Jindal --
00% Lindsey Graham --
04% (Don’t know) 07%
03% (Other) 00%
01% (None of the above) 02%
**% Scott Walker 06%
**% Rick Perry 01%
One can readily observe that the top five garnered 70% of the vote. Also clearly indicated is that Trump, Carson, Fiorina, Rubio and Christie went up and Cruz and Bush went down. All others remained the same or went down, at 4% or less. On a downward trend, Jeb Bush faces five candidates above him who collectively garnered 70% support. Assuming some of those above Bush eventually drop out before the Bush campaign dies, whose support would migrate to Bush? Bush is the ultimate establishment tool. Trump, Carson, Fiorina, and Cruz are anti-establishment candidates. When the Scott Walker support left him, his donations rapidly left, and in its last month alive, his campaign amassed $700,000 in debt before Walker heard a sermon, had an epiphany, suspended his campaign for a higher calling, and announced his mission from god to stop Donald Trump. It is unclear where Rand Paul support would go if he drops out, but it currently hovers at the 2% level. He might hope to pick up support if one or more of the anti-establishment candidates drops out. Rubio more than doubled his support while Bush went backwards. Rubio is by far the more effective debater, and he is also beating Bush in Florida. Almost the entirety of Bush's funding has come from Super-PAC money, not public donations. It's great for Super-PAC attack ads, not so great for paying a bloated campaign staff and costs. Moreover, that money is not Bush's money. That is the SuperPAC donor money. Over $100M is looking for a possible winner, yielding return on investment. Bush is their tool, not their boss. They will not pay for an extended Bush "farewell to politics" tour. If Rubio clearly appears to provide the best chance to provide a return on investment, Bush will be benched and that money will be moved to support the Rubio campaign, and virtually all of the GOPe primary support will likely follow, what there is of it. As Bush went down 2 points, Rubio went up 5 points, indicating almost all the prior Walker support went to Rubio and not to Bush. The poll indicates that without Trump, Bush support goes up 3 points; without Carson it goes up 1 point. Trump or Carson dropping out does not significantly improve Bush support, just as a Walker departure did not help Bush. As that support does not go to Bush, destroying Trump only creates a different problem. It appears likely that establishment support will coalesce around Rubio, not Bush. Without some future Fiorina-like debate performance, it is not apparent what Bush may do to gain the support he needs to fuel his campaign. Trump dominates free airtime and draws ratings wherever he goes. Trump wields the ultimate weapon against Bush. Trump can simply suffocate the Bush campaign. At the scheduled debates, Bush cannot match Trump and Fiorina underscores his weakness. At the lesser events such as that in South Carolina, Trump can simply decide not to appear, denying a national audience to the others. Minus Trump, such events do not draw free live coverage. Trump draws more free live coverage of a press conference or speech to a crowd. Everything Trump says, or does not say, seems to dominate a news cycle. In most news cycles, Jeb Bush is Mr. Irrelevant. Fox News has descended to having Rich Lowery of National Review come on The Kelly File to say of Trump, "Carly cut his balls off with the precision of a surgeon, and he knows it, he knows it." That was fair and balanced assessment of the desperation setting in at the in-the-tank-for-Bush network, and Bush's deflated, low energy campaign. An example of Rich Lowery's previous over-the-top intellectual idiocy enables a better appreciation his assessment integrity. by Rich Lowry A very wise TV executive once told me that the key to TV is projecting through the screen. It’s one of the keys to the success of, say, a Bill O’Reilly, who comes through the screen and grabs you by the throat. Palin too projects through the screen like crazy. I’m sure I’m not the only male in America who, when Palin dropped her first wink, sat up a little straighter on the couch and said, “Hey, I think she just winked at me.” And her smile. By the end, when she clearly knew she was doing well, it was so sparkling it was almost mesmerizing. It sent little starbursts through the screen and ricocheting around the living rooms of America. This is a quality that can’t be learned; it’s either something you have or you don’t, and man, she’s got it. He sounded like Chris Matthews with a tickle running up his leg. Palin winked at him. Other polls: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/09/20/rel10a.pdf [CNN, Sept 17-19, released Sept 20, 2015] http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us09242015_ui47mfb.pdf [Quinipiac University, Sept 17-21, released 24 Sept 2015] http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-09-23/150924_thursday_8698175.pdf [Bloomberg, Sep 18-21, released Sept 24, 2015, many internal results show they are for Sept 15, the day before the most recent debate. This includes GOP candidate favorability/unfavorability, and GOP candidate choice.] Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread |
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