The Establishments war on Donald Trump
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Title: Trump’s Hispanic Voter Problem
Source:
www.redstate.com
URL Source: http://www.redstate.com/2015/08/25/ ... m_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl
Published: Aug 26, 2015
Author: Leon H. Wolf
Post Date: 2015-08-26 19:06:38 by CZ82
Keywords: None
Views: 5618
Comments: 21
Trump’s Hispanic Voter Problem
By: Leon H. Wolf (Diary) | August 25th, 2015 at 06:51 PM
Let’s say this right up front: one doesn’t have to be “soft” on illegal immigration to win Hispanic voters – and no bloc of voters is worth publicly embracing a disastrous policy or one that would be injurious to the nation as a whole. That having been said, things like tone and emphasis matter within the context of this complex debate, and the tone Trump has taken in the primaries may have already effectively doomed his general election campaign.
Probably, we are past the point where the GOP Presidential candidate can have a reasonable chance of outright winning the Hispanic vote. However, not all losses are created equal. George W. Bush was competitive for the Hispanic vote, winning 34% in 2000 and around 40% in 2004. Notably, the Hispanic vote accounted for 5.5% of the total vote in 2000 and 6.0% in 2004 – meaning that the Hispanic vote gave Al Gore 1.8% overall edge in 2000, and John Kerry an overall edge of only 1.2% in 2004. Of course, these two elections resulted in Republican wins.
In 2008, of course, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 53% was only able to win 31% of the Hispanic vote. More disastrously, though, the share of the Hispanic vote increased overall to represent 9% of the total electorate, meaning that Hispanics gave Obama an overall edge of 3.42%. Romney’s showing in 2012 was even worse, as he won only 27% of the Hispanic vote, and Hispanics came to represent 10% of the overall electorate – meaning that Hispanics gave Obama an overall advantage of 4.4%. This would prove to be larger than Obama’s overall margin of victory (3.9%).
Given the sharply divided nature of the national electorate, it seems facially obvious that a Republican candidate cannot survive an election where the Hispanic vote is both a) sharply opposed to the Republican candidate and b) highly motivated to vote.
All of this makes recent polling by Gallup on Hispanic attitudes toward the GOP field highly germane to the “electability” discussion. Hispanics have mostly positive-to-neutral attitudes towards the GOP candidates – ranging from +11 (Bush) to -7 (Cruz). Any of these numbers would be at least palatable in a general election candidate – however, Trump’s favorability rating among Hispanics is an astounding -51, which would suggest that if Trump were the nominee, he would lose the Hispanic vote by an unprecedented margin, and also most likely face a highly energized phalanx of Hispanic voters. This information should also inform our view of head-to-head polling testing Trump against the Democrat candidates, since Hispanic voters are likely under polled in Presidential elections (although to what extent remains a topic of hot debate).
All of which, ultimately, makes Trump’s immigration proposals completely moot in the larger discussion. If nominated, he likely cannot win. Most likely, Romney either maxed out the white vote in 2012 or relatively close to it, and still lost. The Republican candidate, whoever he or she is, cannot expect to win if they lose the Hispanic vote by 50 points, and if their share of the electorate continues to rise, as they would be if the visceral dislike of Trump reflected in this Gallup poll is accurate.
Poster Comment:
Looks like Eric Ericson isn't quite ready to kiss Trumps ass just yet... http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/trump-leads-nevada-poll-with-overwhelming-hispanic-support-300114592.html(1 image)
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#6. To: All (#0)
Trump Leads Nevada Poll with Overwhelming Hispanic Support Trump Has Commanding Overall Lead of 27.7% in Nevada Poll with 31.4% Support by Hispanics WASHINGTON, July 16, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- One America News Network, "OAN", a credible source for 24/7 national and international news, released today its most recent 2016 Republican and Democratic Presidential Polling Results for Nevada conducted by Gravis Marketing. The results show that GOP Presidential candidate Donald Trump has a commanding lead of 27.7%, with recently announced Presidential Candidate Scott Walker in second with 15%. In third is Ben Carson with 7.8% with Jeb Bush a point behind at 6.8%. Marco Rubio rounds out the top five with 5.4%. Undecided voters remain high at just over 20%. With polled Hispanics, Presidential Candidate Trump received 31.4%, higher than his overall performance of 27.7%. The only other Presidential Candidate to receive double digit support by Hispanics is Scott Walker with 11.4%. Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads with 55.4%, a 37.1% lead over Bernie Sander's 18.3%. Clinton and Sanders are the only two candidates receiving double digit results. Coming in third and fourth are Senator Elizabeth Warren and Vice President Joe Biden. Ironically, neither have announced their candidacy. Warren has firmly stated that she will not be a 2016 Presidential Candidate. The recently conducted One America News national poll also shows a heavily divided country when it comes to the job approval rating of President Obama. Democrats give President Obama a 73.5% approval rating whereas only 9.4% of Republicans approve of the President's performance. The overall approval rating of President Obama stands at 42%. According to Robert Herring, Sr., CEO of One America News Network, "The strong showing by Donald Trump can't be ignored. Trump is clearly resonating with voters and, at least in Nevada, his 20 percent lead over Jeb Bush is commanding. Scott Walker, Ben Carson and Marco Rubio continue to poll well, yet it's still early in the campaign process with over 20% of the Republicans polled still undecided. Bernie Sanders continues to poll in the double digits and possesses the closest threat to the Clinton campaign. One America News is pleased to provide our viewers with on-going up-to-date poll results and we have more upcoming state and national polling underway utilizing the polling firm Gravis Marketing." Doug Kaplan of Gravis Marketing states, "We see a significant change in Nevada from the last poll we conducted. Trump is taking the oxygen out of the room. He is taking votes from Bush and Cruz. Hillary is still over 50% and cruising to the nomination." Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm headquartered in Florida, conducted the polling. The random survey of 1,276 registered voters in Nevada was conducted during July 12 and 13th. The sample includes 623 Republican Primary participants, 416 Democratic Primary participants, and 237 planning to vote in 2016, but will not participate in the primary elections. The overall poll has a margin of error of ± 3% with 4% for Republican Primary and 5% for Democratic Primary. The total may not add up to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using interactive voice response, IVR, technology and weighted separately for each population in the question presented. Gravis Marketing is the recipient of the 2013 American Association of Political Consultants award for 2012 Presidential Primary domestic and international phone calls. One America News Network has been providing extensive coverage of the 2016 Presidential campaign, including numerous exclusive one-on-one interviews with the leading candidates. One America News Network will be releasing on-going 2016 Presidential polling results, including national Presidential polling results at the end of July. Complete poll results are available at http://www.oann.com/pollnevada
Since it's only her and Sanders, that doesn't say a lot.
#13. To: misterwhite (#9)
Crazy Uncle Joe is being groomed as we speak.
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#9. To: CZ82 (#6)
"Hillary is still over 50% and cruising to the nomination."
Replies to Comment # 9. Since it's only her and Sanders, that doesn't say a lot.
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