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Title: The new explanation: Trump voters are dangerous
Source:
HotAir
URL Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2015/08/ ... on-trump-voters-are-dangerous/
Published: Aug 19, 2015
Author: Jazz Shaw
Post Date: 2015-08-22 08:41:09 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 2475
Comments: 37
Well, the unenviable task of answering that question falls to Matt Lewis this week, and he’s hot on the trail of a fresh explanation. You see, The Donald is the answer for people who are so beat down, left behind and simply angry that they feel there’s nothing left to lose, so they might as well go crazy. (Some emphasis added) It’s logical: If you’ve got nothing to lose, and Candidate A is telling you he can magically fix all your problems — and Candidate B is telling you he will do his best, but “politics is hard and change takes time” — why wouldn’t you take a chance with Candidate A?… The problem, of course, is for those of us who do have something to lose. Now, I realize that by saying this, I risk sounding like an elitist. It is ironic that I, the son of a prison guard could sound like an elitist in chastising a billionaire real estate mogul, but it’s important for those of us observing and writing about this to simultaneously realize two things: 1). There are a lot of vulnerable people out there who are understandably hurt and frustrated, and have lost faith in the American Dream, and 2). Vulnerable people are the most easily manipulated by false prophets. Whether it’s a stranger approaching you in a dark alley, or someone entering the voting booth, the most dangerous person you’ll encounter is someone who believes he has nothing left to lose. Dangerous? Easily manipulated by false prophets? In terms of the five stages of grief, I think Matt has successfully cleared denial and anger and is currently teetering between bargaining and depression. (We’re still a good ways from acceptance, though.) There’s at least one cautionary note I’d send Matt’s way, however, and it’s the same one which I’ve brought up with other folks in the past. No matter how dismayed you may be over Trump’s ascendancy and no matter how soon you think it’s coming to an end, it’s probably never a good strategy to frame your explanation for his success in the form of an insult to the people who are supporting him. Let’s assume for a moment that you’re right and that Trump will eventually fall out of favor. You’re probably going to want his supporters to back your candidate. Or at least you’ll hope that they’ll show up and vote for somebody without a D after their name. Ticking them off accomplishes nothing. I completely agree that there is a large swath of voters out there (and they’re not all Republicans… many of them might not even normally be voters) who feel completely abandoned by the government and the leadership of both parties. People like that would certainly be attracted to a new voice echoing the things they feel. But that doesn’t mean that they are desperate or have “nothing left to lose.” Maybe they’re just tired of the status quo and want something better. That may be precisely the opposite of desperation… it just might be hope. But in any event, all of this is based on some assumptions which aren’t looking quite so iron clad these days. Let’s review all the things we’ve “known” so far, shall we? I’m not endorsing anyone at this point, Matt. We have a broad, diverse field with a bunch of talented folks in it. But at some point we may have to just acknowledge that Trump may not just dry up and blow away. When the time comes, I’m going to vote for the GOP nominee. But by now you must have had one or two nights where you lay awake and the thought crept into your head saying that it just might be Trump. I was going to type a final rejoinder to drive the point home for you, Matt, but really… this says it all:
(1 image) This is becoming something of an almost comfortable ritual at this point. Another week goes by, Donald Trump does or says something to generate a new round of headlines, everyone predicts that he’s on the way out, and the next poll shows The Donald further ahead than ever. Then the veteran analysts are left staring at their laptops forlornly, stuck with the unenviable task of writing something to explain why. Once the first set of numbers came out which showed that not only was Trump on top of the GOP heap but was within striking distance of Hillary in the general (and losing to her by less than Jeb, by the way) the task became even more of a burden. This morning, our friend Jim Geraghty was forced to struggle with the question – and I quote – What if Donald Trump Really is… Electable? There is a courage born out of desperation. People who feel they have nothing to live for — and nothing to lose — might as well throw a Hail Mary and hope for the best. And make no mistake, there are plenty of Americans right now who truly feel they’ve been left behind. They are likely among the most susceptible to Donald Trump’s message. 
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 34.
#8. To: TooConservative (#0)
Trump is a great candidate. He says what a lot of us believe. He has a track record of real success in business and has made a lot of money through work (as opposed to through collecting donations). He is directly addressing issues that the Republican Party has chosen to get on the wrong side of. He's got a lot of passionate people supporting him. The other eunuchs do not inspire anybody. Trump's a good speaker, and he's fun to watch, and he handles himself very well when punched: he punches back, hard, and he wins the point. He's going to be the nominee, and bring in so many people that he is going to take over the GOP and change its doctrine. And as head of the Party, which the President is, he will remove the staff that fought him, and put in better staff, people with vision, people who are not decades long losers. It's High Noon in America, and the first posse of villains that got off the train to shoot the hero were the media. They got gunned down at the Fox corral. Now the Establishment GOP has come into the square, and they're about to get gunned down. Once they're gone, tossing out Boss Hogg Biden and his screaming harpy running mate will be a piece of cake. Then we'll have elected the new sheriff mayor also, and things will get better for the whole country. TRUMP - IT'S HIGH NOON IN AMERICA
Fresh on Drudge:
Biden Warren v Trump Rubio. Trump wins. 8 years. Rubio succeeds, 8 years. Completely different country in 16 years. A better one. Unless we go nuts for imperialism.
Biden will pledge 4 years only. Meaning his VP pick will be important. Warren is toxic to Wall Street. Meaning no Wall Street money if she is the nominee or VP pick in 2016. She's young enough to wait for 2020 or 2024. I think the meeting was Joe Biden making sure that she wasn't going to run in 2016 and that he would have her support to shore up his Left wing if he runs. Biden would pick a Midwest governor or senator as VP, I think. Or a black or Hispanic.
No. Biden needs a woman to replace Hillary. Also, Obama is a popular and powerful leader - the Democrat party will unite behind him. And the Republican field is exceptionally weak, except for Trump, but at this point nobody except seers believes that Trump will be the nominee. So to Warren, this will look like THE time. Biden will not pledge to 4 years only. That would be weak. He may well only serve four years, but he will not pledge to that. And he will not need to. It will be Biden Warren. Trump will pick Rubio. And Trump will be President.
Except that he doesn't like Rubio. And he has a bromance with Cruz, the only Beltway pol he does like. Or this: HA: The GOP establishment’s nightmare: What if the race comes down to Trump versus Ted Cruz? In this race with a crowded field, Trump can play his hand a hundred different ways.
Trump can play his hand a hundred different ways. Here is the way he will play it: (1) Once he is running away with the primaries, it will be clear that the vox populi republicanus is with him and that he will be the nominee, most of the dwarves will drop out. The Establishment will attempt to cause the party to coalesce around an anti-Trump, and that will be Jeb or Walker, but it clearly will not work. (2) Trump will want to solidify the party Establishment behind him. Jeb's not acceptable. Walker is dull. Rubio is young and interesting, and is the "heir" to the Establishment, so Trump will pick him. (3) A Cruz pick would give "more of the same" as Trump, but lesser. The Establishment hates Cruz more than they hate Trump. Cruz has a mouth and has discomfited them. Trump has cash and has paid a lot of them. (4) Cruz shores him up with Hispanics, and helps with women, and he's young and more impressionable. Trump can mold Rubio in 8 years. He can't mold Jeb, and Rubio brings more to the table than Walker. To unite the Party and strengthen his hand with Hispanics and women, and to give a clear vision of possibly 16 years of stability to the Establishment, he'll pick Rubio. Trump Rubio is the worst nightmare for the Left. Nobody who supports Trump fiercely will refuse to vote for Trump because of the Veep pick, and the whole Establishment will see their own eventual regaining of control with Rubio as the heir apparent. Trump will see Rubio as "turnable", and he WILL turn Rubio. And Trump will be a wildly popular President, so in the future it will be as it was with Reagan: people who couldn't stand him will praise him in hindsight.
You overestimate the value of the VP pick, both with Warren and with Rubio. In the end, people vote for the top of the ticket. Period. These days, you can't even count on a VP pick to bring in 5% in their own home state. Palin was the last VP pick who brought in some excitement and fanbois and that didn't turn out so well in part because, yes, voters know they are voting for the top of the ticket, not the VP pick. All the talk of VP picks is premature to the point being silly. You've already picked the nominee so it's time to pick his VP for him? It would be ludicrous to think anyone knows who Trump would want for VP and other key jobs. And announcing that Carl Icahn would be his Treasury secretary and his chief trade negotiator is not exactly reassuring.
Nevertheless, it will be Rubio, and a 20 year strategy, not anything like the traditional 'way it has been". The forces of traditional conservatism (as in: it's always been this way, and it's going to be that way again, because we say so) are going to be drubbed. Things are changing, for good, with Trump. He's going to win it differently from the old script, and write a new one along the way. And in the new script, the VP is intentionally picked to be the right hand man of the President, with the full expressed intention that he will be the successor who takes over at the end of 8 years.
#35. To: Vicomte13 (#34)
You're as giddy as a schoolgirl over Trump. Finally, the one Republican tycoon that you can truly love. Given so many of your past statements about the Republican elite, I find it bizarre that you've fallen for Trump, head over heels.
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#15. To: Vicomte13 (#8)
Once they're gone, tossing out Boss Hogg Biden and his screaming harpy running mate will be a piece of cake.
#23. To: TooConservative (#15)
#24. To: Vicomte13 (#23)
Biden Warren v Trump Rubio.
#25. To: TooConservative (#24)
#26. To: Vicomte13 (#25)
Trump will pick Rubio.
#27. To: TooConservative (#26)
#31. To: Vicomte13 (#27)
Trump Rubio is the worst nightmare for the Left. Nobody who supports Trump fiercely will refuse to vote for Trump because of the Veep pick, and the whole Establishment will see their own eventual regaining of control with Rubio as the heir apparent.
#34. To: TooConservative (#31)
Replies to Comment # 34.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 34.
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