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United States News Title: Food Shortages in the US Underscore the Weakness of JIT Inventory Systems The mass media is currently in a frenzy about spot shortages of rice, flour, and cooking oil at COSTCO stores. I've fielded seven radio interviews in the last couple of days. The only good news is that we set an all-time record yesterday, with 22,217 unique site visits to SurvivalBlog in one day! The rationing situation is getting worse. Several SurvivalBlog readers sent me this: Wal-Mart's Sam's Club limits rice purchases. Meanwhile, we read in The Washington Times: Americans hoard food as industry seeks regulations. Josh Gerstein, the reporter that interviewed me for the recent New York Sun piece, just got his two minutes of fame on FOX News: Food Shortage Coming? No Rice For You (It used to be called "five minutes of fame", but apparently time is being rationed, too.) Things can get a lot worse, and they probably will, since the recent shortages and jumps in food prices are global, and were driven by increased fuel costs, the looming Ug99 wheat rust menace, and a pitiful wheat harvest in Australia. (Australia has had drought in three of the last six years, and this year they reported their smallest wheat harvest in 12 years.) A tremendous amount of US wheat and rice has been exported to east Asia in the past six months, leaving short supplies here. It was inevitable that this would eventually show up at the consumer level. Part of the current problem at the COSTCOs and Sam's Clubs is that commercial bakeries and restaurants have resorted to buying more rice and flour at the Big Box stores. It is not clear whether this is because of shortages at their normal suppliers, or because the COSTCOs weren't keeping up with price increases (making them cheaper than buying wholesale), some stockpiling in anticipation of future price increases, or a combination of these factors. What is clear is that American consumers have finally caught on, and are now likely to stock up. Yesterday, even the stodgy The Wall Street Journal jumped on the preparedness bandwagon, when they printed this editorial: Load Up the Pantry. I predict that if there is media attention that is any more vocal than this, it could induce a buying panic like the Johnny Carson toilet paper incident. An underlying factor that is being under-reported by the mainstream media is that the modern-day Just in Time (JIT) inventory control is a part of the current problem. As I wrote in SurvivalBlog back in February of 2007, by enthusiastically adopting the Japanese kanban system, America retailers have left themselves quite vulnerable to both wholesale shortages and consumer demand spikes. Inventories are intentionally kept lean, for efficiency. This is great for cutting costs in normal times, but it is dangerously fragile whenever a disruption occurs. With JIT, every purchase is logged at the checkout counter terminal, and once a predetermined shelf threshold is reached, an automatic restocking order gets forwarded through the system. Typically, these re-supply shipments take around 24 hours. But a big spike in sales can totally overwhelm the system, leaving empty shelves. I'm glad that most SurvivalBlog readers stocked up well in advance. By doing so, you are now part of the solution in a food crisis, rather than part of the problem. Because you stocked up many months ago, each one of you represents one less buyer rushing to the store at the 11th hour. And, by having extra on hand, you can dispense charity to your less prudent neighbors. If the current rice shortage gets any worse, you need to be prepared to dispense charity. I assume that the average SurvivalBlog reader has about 200 pounds of rice on hand. I recommend that you identify friends, neighbors, co-workers and church brethren that are gluten intolerant. For most of us, a shortage of rice, by itself, is not much of an issue. We can simply shift to eating more wheat. But this is not an option for folks that are gluten intolerant (also known as celiac disease, or celiac sprue.) If any of your acquaintances are in this category and they report that they are running out of rice, then quietly offer to give them some. For the sake of OPSEC, just let them know that you have "a little extra" that you can share. Never hand out any of your rice stockpile in more than five pound increments, or you might start some unfriendly rumors. Hopefully, this will be a short term phenomenon. I anticipate that the Bush administration will soon sharply curtail exports of rice and wheat. Once the current shortage is alleviated, we should both thank God for his Providence, and take this as a reminder to stock up even more, to be prepared for future shortages. Remember our motto:" Two is one, and one is none."/p>
Poster Comment: Stock up.
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#1. To: A K A Stone (#0)
JIT is an incredibly complex, high-stress system of supply invented by bankster bean counters who never unloaded a truck in their lives.
"Laws are like spiderwebs; they hold the weak and delicate who are caught in their meshes, but are torn apart by the rich and powerful."-Anacharsis.
I used to work for a Jap place. They made rubber door seal for Honda. They were called Greene Tokai. We had to take classes on JIT. I always thought stocking up was better then JIT bullshit.
Yup; contribute to the shortage of stock in 'the system' ...
Stocking up is wise. I am an individual not a worker bee. That is to much like a commie.
Yeah; nothing like the stress of carrying a few millions of dollars worth of 'extra' inventory at a small manufacturer to make you sweat bullets (if the customer that uses those 'parts' is on shaky, uncertain ground as far as being around going forward...)
IF you're just stocking up now - you missed the point of this WHOLE 'survivalist' business. The point being, you should have ALWAYS had stock on hand!! If you're just stocking up now, what if the/a bomb dropped two days ago - you would have been caught SHORT now!!!
I'm stocked somewhat. Could be better. Better to get started late than never. It is not to late.
Okay, I've got a T-storm in progress here; gotta bail out, shut off the PC etc.
Put a barrel out. So you can get some free water. Save it up.
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