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Title: Mark Halperin: Some GOP rivals now think Trump could win Iowa, the nomination — even the presidency
Source:
HotAir
URL Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2015/08/ ... omination-even-the-presidency/
Published: Aug 17, 2015
Author: Allahpundit
Post Date: 2015-08-17 14:10:43 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 2452
Comments: 12
Via Breitbart, I can definitely see him winning Iowa, which would all but finish off Scott Walker. I can also kinda sorta see him winning the general election if everything broke right for him — scandals blow up what’s left of Hillary’s trustworthiness, black voters stay home with Obama off the ticket, GOP establishmentarians grudgingly stick with Trump in the name of reclaiming some leverage over the White House, and Trump’s platform (including/especially on immigration) peels off enough centrist Democrats to more than make up for the number of Republicans who can’t stand Trump and decide to stay home. The part I have the most trouble with here is seeing how he wins the nomination in the first place. This field inevitably will winnow after Florida to three or four plausible candidates at most. After the “SEC primary” on March 1, it should winnow even further, possibly leaving two or three candidates left standing. If Trump’s one of them, pressure on GOP voters to unite behind the other guy (or, if there’s more than one alternative to Trump left, to pick one and unite behind him) on ideological grounds and electability grounds will be tremendous. At some point, barring something very unusual happening, a long Trump run will turn this into a “Trump versus Not Trump” race. And there’s no reason, with this guy hovering at around 25-30 percent in the polls, to think that most of the remaining 70-75 percent of Republicans won’t line up behind “Not Trump.” In fact, because Trump insists on insulting everyone else in the field, hard feelings may ensure that even candidates who aren’t fans of one another might band together to stop him if it comes to that. Trump’s path requires, I think, at least two other rivals stubbornly deciding to continue the race, dividing the “Not Trump” vote between them, well into the spring despite Trump-haters from across the party howling at one of them to step aside and endorse the other. Paint me a picture of how that happens. Realistically, if Trump were to hang around until the SEC primary, he’d need to have won one or more of the early states. If he wins Iowa, as Halperin suggests here, that almost certainly means Scott Walker will flame out of the race quickly. Florida could also eliminate either Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio (or both, if Trump were to upset them there). So who’s still viable realistically once the “SEC primaries” are held? Trump, the Florida winner, the New Hampshire winner, and probably Ted Cruz, who’s banking on the southern states to be a launching pad for him nationally. At that point in the race, with the field effectively down to four candidates maximum, how many Trump-supporting conservatives will think hard about their choices and decide Cruz is a better bet against Hillary than the volatile, not-terribly conservative Trump? How many Trump-supporting moderates will think hard about their choices and decide Rubio or Bush or Kasich (whichever one is left) is a better, more electable choice for the general than Trump? In fact, the more I think about it, the more I wonder if there isn’t a deeper strategy to Ted Cruz’s scrupulous cordiality towards Trump. Everyone assumes Cruz is being nice to him because he expects to inherit Trump’s righty supporters at some point (which is no doubt true), but Trump may also be valuable to Cruz as a guy who can block and tackle for him in the early states. Cruz can survive losing Iowa but I’m not sure Walker, the Iowa native and regional governor, can. At this point Trump may have a better shot at taking Walker out than Cruz does. Once Walker’s gone, his evangelical and tea-party voters may slide over to Cruz in time for the SEC primary, at which point other undecided righties will likely be looking for an alternative to Trump as the race gets serious. Cruz would be well positioned to pick up their support. And what if three or four candidates do hang around all the way to the convention next summer, as Sean Trende imagined might happen? With the GOP establishment in an uproar demanding that Trump not be nominated, party chieftains would intervene and try to broker a deal among the remaining candidates to form a ticket themselves and deny Trump the nomination. The only way they might not be able to deny Trump is if he finished with a near-majority of delegates, such that leaving him off the ticket would feel like cheating and infuriate his fans into staying home in the general election. Even then, though, they’d probably try to exclude him. And even if Trump ended up as nominee, the hardened anti-Trumpers supporting other candidates might well decide to stay home in protest themselves, making his task even harder. Long story short, the longer Trump runs and the more polarizing he is, the less likely it is that the party will unite no matter who the eventual nominee is. If you’re a Trump fan and want to see him nominated, your best — and probably only — chance is for him to shock the world by running the table early and winning Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina so that he builds up irresistible momentum … at which point Mitt Romney will be drafted to try to stop Trump at the eleventh hour after all. Poster Comment: Based on a Breitbart interview. I liked HA's commentary better. This is how Bush ends up being helped by Trump running. It rapidly coalesces all the GOP's big donors and party elite behind him. And everything just dries up for the rest of the GOP field.
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#1. To: TooConservative (#0)
And people will vote for Bush because?
It seems someone did not get the memo that the FL primary is later this go around. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016#Febr uary "When Americans reach out for values of faith, family, and caring for the needy, they're saying, "We want the word of God. We want to face the future with the Bible.'"---Ronald Reagan
Why is Trump ahead (for now) in a party he would be called a RINO in? Because he is 1) a rich business man and 2) That means he is a doer not a talker and 3) He gives what for to people the base can't stand.
Could you please clarify statement #3? "When Americans reach out for values of faith, family, and caring for the needy, they're saying, "We want the word of God. We want to face the future with the Bible.'"---Ronald Reagan
Yes there is. There's a very good reason to think they won't. The Republicans want to win. If they block Trump by putting up...who? Jeb. Hillary or Biden will beat Jeb. Cruz? Cruz may drop out in favor of Trump, to be Trump's running mate. The Establishment has greater reason to hate Cruz than Trump. He has embarrassed them in the Senate. Trump has given them millions and millions of dollars over the years. Who then, Walker? Trump will have knocked Walker out. Huckabee? Will the GOPe unite behind Huckabee to stop Trump? No. Who then? Nobody. If Trump runs away with it by winning the early primaries - which he will, and by winning the open primaries - he'll win all of those - Trump will be the nominee. Those who hate Trump will be defeated and will go to the back of the bus. They won't vote for Hillary or Biden. They'll grumble, and Trump will throw them Rubio as a sop. They will get comfortable with the idea of Rubio in 8, and they will hold their noses and vote for Trump. Trump will be the the next POTUS, and Rubio will be his Veep.
Because they are stupid GOP / Bush Bots Si vis pacem, para bellum
Those who hate Trump will be defeated and will go to the back of the bus. They won't vote for Hillary or Biden. They'll grumble, and Trump will throw them Rubio as a sop. They will get comfortable with the idea of Rubio in 8, and they will hold their noses and vote for Trump. Trump will be the the next POTUS, and Rubio will be his Veep. Bookmarked for future reference:) "When Americans reach out for values of faith, family, and caring for the needy, they're saying, "We want the word of God. We want to face the future with the Bible.'"---Ronald Reagan
The Florida primary isn't until March 15th. These so-called "experts" need to get up to speed.
There is every reason to see the GOPe strategy was to flood the field with bodies posing as candidates to divide the vote as much as possible until their chosen ones with the most money floated to the top like turds. It was a long game strategy. Trump and the people have destroyed that strategy. Trump (25%), Carson (12%) and Cruz (10%) total 47%. Bush (9%), Huckabee (6%) and Walker (6%) total 21%. Fiorina (5%) is in seventh. "None of the above" got 2% "Don't know" got 7%. ALL the rest got 18% total. They are having no substantial effect at splitting the vote. The "NOT GOPe" vote is dominating. Why anyone would fantasize that they will coalesce around a GOPe puppet is a mystery. Non-politicians total 42%. Trump is at 25%. Carson and Cruz (combined 22%) by themselves lead the GOPe leading trio of Bush, Huckabee and Walker (21% combined). Three non-politicians double the three highest GOPe candidates. Trump bashed the GOPe over the head. Their effort to use Fox News as a proxy led to the Trump domination of Fox News. The GOPe strategy is in a shambles. Its cast of characters is afraid to confront Donald Trump. He hits back. While Trump may flame out, there is absolutely no indication that any of the GOPe candidates is attractive to anyone outside the GOPe. Bush went backwards 6 points and three Non-GOPe candidates surged into the lead. Carly Fiorina surged to 7th. #8 and down average less than 2%, and all are less than 5%.
The GOP are not good managers of things. Trump is. Really, what the GOP ought to do is embrace victory, go with Trump, coalesce around him NOW, and actually use THAT momentum to start ruling the nation, NOW, because they do, after all, control both houses of Congress and the Supreme Court.
Wouldn't you think someone in Mark Halperin's position should know that? He should be correcting us, not the other way around. Lazy journalism.
I think it's a foregone conclusion that some right wing voters are going to stay home no matter who the Repubelicken nominee is...
#2. To: TooConservative (#0)
This field inevitably will winnow after Florida to three or four plausible candidates at most. After the “SEC primary” on March 1, it should winnow even further, possibly leaving two or three candidates left standing.
#3. To: redleghunter (#2)
#4. To: Pericles (#3)
Why is Trump ahead (for now) in a party he would be called a RINO in? Because he is 1) a rich business man and 2) That means he is a doer not a talker and 3) He gives what for to people the base can't stand.
#5. To: TooConservative (#0)
And there’s no reason, with this guy hovering at around 25-30 percent in the polls, to think that most of the remaining 70-75 percent of Republicans won’t line up behind “Not Trump.” In fact, because Trump insists on insulting everyone else in the field, hard feelings may ensure that even candidates who aren’t fans of one another might band together to stop him if it comes to that.
#6. To: Pericles (#1)
" And people will vote for Bush because? "
#7. To: Vicomte13, TooConservative (#5)
If Trump runs away with it by winning the early primaries - which he will, and by winning the open primaries - he'll win all of those - Trump will be the nominee.
#8. To: TooConservative (#0)
"This field inevitably will winnow after Florida to three or four plausible candidates at most. After the “SEC primary” on March 1, it should winnow even further",
#9. To: TooConservative (#0)
And there’s no reason, with this guy hovering at around 25-30 percent in the polls, to think that most of the remaining 70-75 percent of Republicans won’t line up behind “Not Trump.” In fact, because Trump insists on insulting everyone else in the field, hard feelings may ensure that even candidates who aren’t fans of one another might band together to stop him if it comes to that.
#10. To: nolu chan (#9)
#11. To: redleghunter (#2)
"It seems someone did not get the memo that the FL primary is later this go around."
#12. To: TooConservative (#0)
And even if Trump ended up as nominee, the hardened anti-Trumpers supporting other candidates might well decide to stay home in protest themselves, making his task even harder.
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
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