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Title: Yes, Trump Lost the Debate
Source:
National Review
URL Source: http://www.nationalreview.com/corne ... 4/trump-lost-debate-rich-lowry
Published: Aug 12, 2015
Author: Rich Lowry
Post Date: 2015-08-12 09:37:23 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 15498
Comments: 132
Per this Suffolk University survey in Iowa that is not an online poll like many of the other post-debate surveys. Trump didn’t suffer a catastrophe (he still leads in the state), but the debate hurt him: The Suffolk survey has warning signs for Trump. By 2-1, 55%-23%, those surveyed say watching Trump in the debate made them feel less comfortable rather than more comfortable with him as a candidate for president. A 54% majority also reject Trump’s complaints that he was treated unfairly by the Fox News anchors who served as moderators; 41% agree with him. And a third of Iowa Republicans say Trump – enmeshed in a post-debate contretemps over his comments about Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly – “doesn’t show appropriate respect for women.” A larger number, 46%, side with the real-estate mogul and reality-TV star, saying criticism of his comments about women “are just examples of political correctness.” Then there’s this: Trump scores a big lead among those who didn’t watch the debate, at 21%, double the standing of retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who finishes second at 10%. But among those who watched the debate, Trump does less well, tied with Walker at 14%. Meanwhile, Trump still leads in New Hampshire, but is lower than he had been in prior surveys: BREAKING: NEW @FPUniversity /@bostonherald NH POLL @realDonaldTrump 18% @JebBush 13% @JohnKasich 12% @CarlyFiorina 9% pic.twitter.com/lXa1NZ6JAF— Boston Herald Radio (@HeraldRadio) August 11, 2015 And Rasmussen has Trump losing altitude nationally: The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Trump with 17% support among Likely Republican Primary Voters, down from 26% in late July before the first GOP debate. Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in second place with 10% support each, in a near tie with Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote. Next with eight percent (8%) come retired neurologist Dr. Ben Carson and Senator Ted Cruz at seven percent (7%). (To see survey question wording, click here.) Poster Comment: Trump's highest Suffolk poll standing in IA is among people who didn't watch the debate. So Trump polls best among Iowa's Know-Nothings. He could have advocated full-blown Soviet communism and still been their pick. You can't deny that NR is still a hotbed of Trump haters ("Witless Ape Rides Escalator") so take it all, like any these goofy August name-recognition polls, with a big grain of salt.
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Paradoxically, the Tweetstorm over Trump and his "blood coming from her wherever" nonsense with Megyn Kelly on Friday night has obscured the rather dramatic decline in Trump's poll numbers in traditional polling (large-sample phone-based polling, not self-selected online polling like NBC/SurveyMonkey).
TC, your attitude about Trump is starting to remind me of Gatlin's towards Ron Paul.
Si vis pacem, para bellum
You guys are going to successfully take out Trump, and Obama is taking out Hillary. Bonjour President Biden.
None of it really matters at this point for two reasons. Reason 1 is the primaries are for all pratical political purposes a lifetime away. Reason 2 is the media is in the business of selling advertising via controversy,so they are capable of conducting biased polls to read any way they need them to read in order to pump up circulation. What most have as their number one concern is enriching themselves. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
Your dream come true.
Reason 2 is the media is in the business of selling advertising via controversy,so they are capable of conducting biased polls to read any way they need them to read in order to pump up circulation. What most have as their number one concern is enriching themselves. On #1, I already said as much. On #2, this article discusses actual traditional polling. Not some newbie outfit with a dozen people and no track record or a PollDaddy-style self-selected online survey (NBC/SurveyMonkey). The declining network news outfits are so strapped for cash (after vastly overpaying their anchors and top brand-name mouthpieces) that they have little money left to investigate and report. Or to pay for actual polls, unreliable and biased as those have become. I'll point out again that Cameron of Britain and Netanyahu were predicted by traditional polling to lose decisively in their recent elections right up to election day and they won in a landslide. Either these polls are being deliberately manipulated to favor the Left's agenda or people are simply lying to the pollsters.
Sorry to interrupt your soothing All-Trump-all-the-time coverage. Of course, I am shorting Teh Donald's stock here at LF, betting on his inevitable implosion. 95% of LF's readership is pro-Donald after all. Maybe I am the last non-Trumpster (other than Choo-Choo Man) here at LF. Even buckeroo is weakening.
Trump lost half his mile-wide-inch-deep support in NH after the first debate. Here are more details on the NH polling. In a major shake-up of the GOP pack in New Hampshire, front-runner Donald Trump has lost nearly half his support while two longshots — Ohio Gov. John Kasich and businesswoman Carly Fiorina — have surged into the top five, a new Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald poll reveals. Trump still leads the field with 18 percent, but the poll of likely Republican primary voters shows his numbers quickly dropping — especially among women — right after his tirade against Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly. And more than 4 in 10 GOP voters say he doesn’t have the “temperament” to be president. The Franklin Pierce/Herald poll has former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush running in second place at 13 percent, while Kasich now stands at 12 percent, launching him into serious contention in the Granite State. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is in fourth at 10 percent, and Fiorina, who has spent most of the campaign at the bottom of the pack, follows right behind at 9 percent, according to the poll of 414 likely GOP primary voters conducted Aug. 7-10. Trump has led most national and New Hampshire polls in the last few weeks despite igniting a series of firestorms that have engulfed his campaign, including questioning U.S. Sen. John McCain’s war hero status. But his incendiary comments about Kelly appear to be taking a toll among Granite State Republicans and independents. In the four-day polling sample, Trump’s numbers dropped more than 10 points the night after the roiling controversy and never recovered. Trump is now viewed unfavorably by 55 percent of likely GOP women voters, compared to just 38 percent of men, suggesting a widening gender problem for Trump’s campaign. But remember, the women love him or something. Let’s face it, this barking clown will rapidly fade, then decide to drop out and claim he made a lot of money with this stunt. Anything to assuage his frail ego.
Yeah, and there are a few guys in Montana that think he lost, one chick in kookifornia, a teenager in Jersey and a Cecil the lion activist in Texas. So fucking what. He's leading every other poll. Suck it up, closet libtard haters. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
A bit more on about these online polls. NeoNeocon, 8/11/15: One thing I’ve noticed is that all of the post-debate polls I’ve located so far (except two that only deal with Iowa; see this and this) are online polls.[* see below] Now, they’re not the sort of online polls that have no science whatsoever to them, where anyone can vote over and over and they’re easy to game (usually by Paul-supporters, although I don’t see them having the same enthusiasm for Rand as they did for Ron). These recent post-debate online post-debate polls are better than that; for example, they try to weight their subjects as regards party affiliation, etc. But as unreliable as ordinary polls can be, these tend to be even more unreliable. So I doubt that we know all that well who has really gotten a bump from the debate, who has fallen, and who has remained the same, although we know what people on blogs are saying and what the pundits are writing. We also know whose coffers are getting an infusion of money (Fiorina) and who is going broke (Perry, who I predict will drop out fairly soon if that report is correct). Putting that aside, here’s a question I’d like to see answered in future polls: who did you vote for in the last presidential election? I have a completely untested theory that quite a few of those who say their favorite candidate is Trump and that they will vote for him in the primary are people who previously had been so turned off by politics and the GOP that they quit voting a while ago. I would predict that perhaps a third of them hadn’t voted in 2012 (or wrote in a candidate), and hadn’t planned to vote in 2016 except for Trump’s candidacy. Another question that interests me regarding polling is one that was broached by commenter “beth”: There is an interesting thing about these polls and even Steven Crowder has picked up on it, can you find anyone who says they are voting for Bush? I can’t. Do any of you know anyone? How in the heck is he in 2nd and 3rd place? Beth is voicing what I’d call the Pauline Kael fallacy (actually, the pseudo fallacy, because Kael was somewhat misquoted). Just because you or I don’t know a single person who is supporting Bush doesn’t mean such people don’t exist. Actually, I hardly know anyone who votes Republican to begin with, but the few I know are not Bush-supporters. However, Bush has a lot of money, so somebody out there likes him. There are still quite a few moderate Republicans around, and in fact I know one of them quite well, although I haven’t talked to her recently and I certainly haven’t talked to her about the election. But she is what used to be known as a “country-club Republican.” She was raised a Republican in a very country-clubby family and still lives that sort of life, for the most part. She’s also what you might call a Republican LIV; doesn’t pay all that much attention to politics but almost always votes and votes Republican. As I said, I don’t talk to her often and haven’t talked to her this election cycle. But if I had to guess, she’s a Bush supporter. She’s not alone in her political viewpoints and background, either. That’s where his support comes from, I believe—that and the Chamber of Commerce-ers (a certain amount of overlap there, I’d guess). I believe the polls are accurately reflecting those groups, although they’re not groups whose representatives you find on blogs all that often. They’ve got better things to do, especially in the summer: golf, sailing, drinks on the patio, you know the drill. I’ll have to remember to ask her next time I see her, because now I’ve gotten curious. So, do you know any Bush-supporters? [ADDENDUM: Nate Silver has an interesting take on the Trump polling figures and what they mean.] [* Commenter “jack” has offered a link to a post-debate Rasmussen poll.]
"OK staff. Find a survey, any survey, anywhere, that shows Trump didn't do as well in the debate as everyone is saying. I don't even care if it's from some obscure university in some podunk state. Just get me one I can use!" Annnnd, Rich Lowry joins the growing list at National review that will not get an interview with Trump. There's a publication with diversity, huh? I found a recording of the staff at National Review on their way to work:
Lots of people like Trump. So the media is taking him out, and you're happy about it. You're going to get some milquetoast eunuch, and you will be happy about that...until, with the media's help, he is shoved aside in favor of Biden. Then you won't be happy at all. Meanwhile, I will be happy if Trump wins. And I will be in shoulder-shrug-get- on-with-life mode if either Walker or Biden win. But there's no doubt in my mind that if the Republicans nominate anybody but Trump, Biden wins. And that's ok. Take out my Trump, and you still lose. I get at least half a loaf either way. Sucks to be you.
Exactly.... and journalistically, it's the YELLA thing to do. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
And more from Nate Silver: Lieberman, Clinton, Giuliani and Perry, as you’ve probably gathered, are not the faces atop Mount Rushmore. Only Clinton came close to winning the nomination. But the problem isn’t just that the national polls at this stage in the race lack empirical power to predict the nomination; it’s also that they describe a fiction. I don’t mean to suggest that Donald Trump’s support in the polls is “fake.” I have no doubt that some people really love him or that he’d be the favorite if you held a national, winner-take-all Republican primary tomorrow. However, the “election” these polls describe is hypothetical in at least five ways: This is why it’s exasperating that the mainstream media has become obsessed with how Trump is performing in these polls. So you should ignore those national polls entirely? In a literal sense, they do have some correlation with election outcomes: Even this far out, a candidate near the top of the polls is a somewhat better bet to win the nomination than one near the bottom. But that’s like projecting a major league pitcher’s numbers from high school stats: Sure, you’d rather draft a random 17-year-old with a 2.14 ERA than another one with a 3.31 ERA if that’s all the information you have to go by. But that data doesn’t reveal very much, and its predictive power tends to be swamped by other indicators (everything from the pitcher’s strikeout-to-walk ratio to his scouting reports). In the case of presidential primaries, indicators such as endorsements and support from party elites tend to be more reliable indicators of eventual success. To the extent that you’re looking at polls, you should probably adjust for name recognition and the amount of media attention a candidate is receiving. And you should account for favorability numbers and second-choice preferences, since all but a few candidates will eventually drop out of the running. It’s possible — pretty easy, in fact — for a candidate to improve his standing in the polls while he simultaneously lowers his chance to become the nominee. Currently, the average GOP voter has a favorable view of seven Republican candidates; being agreeable won’t help you stand out in the near term, even though the nomination is a consensus-building process in the long term. What about being a jerk? If you can make yourself the center of attention — and no candidate in modern memory has been more skilled at that than Trump — you can potentially turn the polls into a referendum on your candidacy. It’s possible that many GOP voters are thinking about the race in just that way now. First, they ask themselves whether they would vote for Trump; if not, they then choose among the 16 other candidates. The neat thing about this is that you can overwhelmingly lose the majority in the referendum — 75 percent of Republicans are not voting for Trump — and yet still hold the plurality so long as the “no” vote is divided among a sufficient number of alternatives. Another trade-off comes from entrenching your appeal with a narrow segment of the electorate at the expense of broadening your coalition. I’ve seen a lot written about how Trump’s candidacy heralds a new type of populism. If it does, this type of populism isn’t actually very popular. Trump’s overall favorability ratings2 are miserable, about 30 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable, and they haven’t improved (whatever gains he’s made among Republicans have been offset by his declines among independents and Democrats). To some extent, the 30 percent may like Trump precisely because they know the 60 percent don’t like him. More power to the 30 percent: I have plenty of my own issues with the political establishment. But running a campaign that caters to (for lack of a better term) contrarians is exactly how you ensure that you’ll never reach a majority.3 At FiveThirtyEight, however, we’re fairly agnostic about what will happen to Trump’s polling in the near term. It’s possible that he’s already peaked — or that he’ll hold his support all the way through Iowa and New Hampshire, possibly even winning one or two early states, as similar candidates like Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingrich have in the past.4 Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so. Read more: “The Bernie Sanders Surge Appears To Be Over“ Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.
Democrat talk.
Take out my Trump, and you still lose. I get at least half a loaf either way. You openly admit what you've denied recently: that you favor a President Biden. As I said all along.
So fucking what. He's leading every other poll. Suck it up, closet libtard haters. LOL. You really do want to go down with the ship. In this case, Trump's yacht.
Trump won the debate on the first question by just raising his hand to indicate that he has some principals and won't necessarily back the GOP candidate, which is traditionally a POS. None of the others did, indicating that they're lockstep party hacks who'll back Satan should he receive the GOP nomination. That's a likely possibility with a Bush! running. They don't care. They believe it is impossible for Trump to get the nomination. Trump will never get key party leaders to support him. Historically, it is the single strongest factor in securing the nomination. Just ask the Xlintons. That's how Obama beat them (along with playing a strong game in the delegate caucuses that follow immediately after many state primaries and playing the superdelegate game well).
Actually, that's when he lost the debate. The dustup with Megyn Kelly obscured that. A lot of GOP viewers did not like his threat to go Perot on them after he filed for the GOP nomination and accepted a slot in the debates. Why do you think he was being booed all the way through the first debate in Ohio. They hated him.
Do you dream about Donald Trump too?
You're really dumb.
Nope. What's wrong, starting to recall what it felt like to support Fred Thompson to your dying breath as he doddered around the Iowa state fair?
I am, aren't I? Lines like that work better for Trump because he has (or claims to have) $10 billion.
Now you are lying again. Chan already gave you a break down on applauses. Trump got the most. Why do you feel the need to lie? Karl Rove is oozing out of your ....
Huh?
He was a joke. I always knew that. He was there to help take out Ron Paul. I remember that loser was in the debate the excluded Paul from. Then he was at the bottom of the pack behind Ron Paul.
Democrat talk. Truth.
It wasn't a line. It was a truthful observation.
Yeah, you are acting just like gatlin. Are you two related? Seem to have the same dna. You need to seek help! Si vis pacem, para bellum
I'm surprised Gatlin hasn't turned up again. Maybe he's off slumming at TOS. He threw a tantrum and stormed out because Stone wouldn't believe something he said.
That's the thing, I won't sink with anyone. Even if Trump crashes and burns, another candidate will replace him. Since there isn't any viable "perfect" candidate, any of the others (including the RINO's) will be a vast improvement over commie Bernie or socialist Shitlary. If I sink, YOU SINK. In the end, even that RINO that beats trump out will have to deal with the shit pot Trump stirred up... like now the (R) party knows how important a WALL IS to its voting base. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
Gatlin is voluntarily MIA... he made the decision on principle. His own principle. Though I disagree with his way of handling the incident that caused him to stop posting, it is and was his decision to make. I hope he returns and realizes not everyone in an on line forum will believe him, be civil with him or agree with him. It is what it is... and that's why we're here. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
Not fair to say that about TC. I was pretty much against Trump at first also and will turn on him if he goes sour. What is with this hero worship of candidates in the conservatives ranks. I don't get it. Treat candidates like you would a player on a fantasy baseball team. The candidates are not your virtual reality avatars. Did Trump win the debates? Here is where I can't judge because I am a politics nerd and by my personal standards Trump lost - he seemed like the kid who did not read his assignment and was winging his report in front of the class by clowning around. But I am not Joe Q Public and they loved his style. We are in the modern era where personality trumps (pun intended or not) all. Very few people - even those who are self described conservatives or liberals - have any idea what policies are what. They have no idea what the policies mean when the politican says it (remember Gore and his lock box - what the fuck that was no one knows). The general public has a vague idea what a policy may mean - maybe, but they get personality. They like combative and assertive personality types. They like to be made to laugh. How to stop immigration? Fuck do they know but a "wall" sounds logical. I mean a wall keeps the neighbor's dog out so it must work. That is as deep a thinker as Joe Q Public gets. If you try and talk about employment IDs, fines and legal formulas to deal with illegals Joe Q Public's eyes will roll into their skulls - especially after a hard days work and a couple of beers in them. So Trump is basically running sayin, listen, do I have specific plans? No. But I am a doer and my billions in business prove it and that is enogh for Joe Q Public. Maybe this is the end of the ideologue candidate who has to pass a litmus test from special interest groups. Those people were becoming like the fucking Gestapo for an ideology that actually has no history of working in the real world.
You've just figured that out? You do know that's not breaking news don't you? The corruption of the ruling class patrician establishment GOPe is old news. Ever since Angelo Codevilla wrote "America’s Ruling Class — And the Perils of Revolution" I've been waiting for someone to capitalize on the power vacuum he identified. I had figured it would probably be Trump; but I figured he would do a repeat of Ross Perot and run as an independent from the beginning. His strategy has been better than I could have hoped, he must have an intuitive sense about this sort of thing. Running for the GOP nomination first to expose how the nomination process is rigged in favor of the plutocracy was an even better idea. Lots of fresh wounds come November 2016, so average Joe GOP voter can see just how bad the GOPe is. The more he can do to destroy the GOP the better his chances next November. There is nothing sacred about the GOP. It came to power upon the grave of another party that had lost its way, pimped out to a plutocracy in the 1850's and stabbing its voters in the back. There was nothing sacred about the Whig party. The GOPe has become what those who met in Ripon were against. It should die. The important thing to preserve is America. Threats to America are what should die, and a GOPe that emulates Judas should go into the ash-bin of history. Codevilla's "country class" needs a political party, the ruling class still has the democrat party. Of course in the long run the ruling class is a threat to America. An aristocratic oligarchy is an anathema to the founding ideals of this nation. The ruling class has been waging war against the country class, they will need to reap what they've sown.
I thought pinging him would remind him he isn't forgotten here.
You realize that they see it differently. They own the country, they just let us live in it. Deep down, that is the consensus view of the elite in both parties. The Dems have a better plantation system, having much longer experience with managing slaves. On the GOP plantation, the slaves get a little uppity from time to time.
I don't know. You tell me. Also, turn that around, what is with the intense hatred that TC exudes for someone (Trump) so opposed to the GOPe? My only like for Trump at this point is: 1. The GOPe hates & fears him 2. He is not controlled by GOPe 3. I think he will do a much better job on all of these assine trade deals that the establishment has saddled us with, and therefore exported all of our industry & jobs 4. I like his attitude about all of the massive unlimited immigration 5. I like his attitude about controlling the border 6. I like his attitude that our involvement in foreign deals should be more in our favor I see little to none of that with the other clowns. I take the position that anyone that has so much hatred for Trump is because they are a cheer leader for the establishment. That much support for the establishment is what gave us Romney, McStain, McConnell, cry baby boner, et al. That is also what gave us all the cave ins to the liberal democrats and Ovomit, and that attitude also furthers the march to the NWO. It basically is a choice between America / The US Constitution, and the statist establishment. I am older, and eventually it will make no difference for me. However, I have children that will inherit this nation, so for them, I care. Therefore, I do not know about you, but given a choice, I will choose America / the US Constitution. I cannot speak for everyone, but I hero worship no one. Our nation is in a struggle for survival, and I am opposed to any & all that are facilitating its destruction. That includes the GOPestablishment. F the establishment! Si vis pacem, para bellum
You know I'm getting the distinct impression that some people are getting upset that you aren't wearing a set of Trump kneepads.
F the establishment! Very good post, and excellent summary.
They know. And if Trump is not the nominee, they will know that it's not important ENOUGH for them to change their position. Truth is, they're not going to change their minds. The only way to get the change you want is to give Trump the victory and let him go in and start firing the party officials and replacing them with his own people. THEN the party will change. They already know what the Border-bots want, and they've already decided that the desires of their crony capitalist alphas for cheap exploitable labor trump the desires of people. The Republicans may TALK a better game, but it will be just like abortion. They say what the rubes want to hear, dupe them into voting for them, and then never get it done - and blame Democrat obstruction. And the rubes are rubes, and they'll keep falling for it.
And sometimes the peasants march on the castle with pitchforks. China is old, and many dynasties have forfeited the mandate of heaven over time. GOPe has done the same.
Deep down, they know I'm right. But, like a teenage girl on a fling with some punk their mother disapproves of and their father would like to punch out, you can't talk them out of their summer crush. It's the only logical explanation. Sorry I didn't give you some credit. Fred too, maybe Gary, I guess. And tomder as well. You have to admit, LF has rarely had so many posts. So Trump is good for business at Fox News and at LibertysFlame. : )
The sad part is that so many people are going to become entrenched in their support of him that when the onion is peeled ,they still won't smell the stench.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
If I was Trump I would hire body guards lest "a crazy person acting alone" somehow takes a shot at him. He is freaking the party establishment and those people will not hesitate to kill to keep their positions.
You openly admit what you've denied recently: that you favor a President Biden. As I said all along. You really do have a reading comprehension problem. Here, let me help you out. I'll write slowly, so you can understand. (1) I am not a Republican. (2) I am not a Democrat. (3) I do not vote for babykillers. That means no Democrats, no Pataki, no Fiorina, and no Jeb - he killed Terri Schiavo. If the Republicans want my vote, they have to become pro-life and use their power to strike Roe. And they have to stop espousing foolish and evil economics, they have to stop being imperialists and Israel firsters. If the Democrats want my vote, they have to become pro-life and stop exulting in sexual immorality, and they have to stop being imperialists and Israel firsters. In the absence of that I will only consider voting for Republicans whom I believe to really BE pro-life, as opposed to one more con in the Republican game. So I WOULD vote for Huckabee or Santorum. And I MIGHT vote for Paul, Carson or Walker, if they actually persuaded me they really ARE pro-life and not just the typical Republican cons. The Republican nominee will be Jeb or Walker. With Jeb, I get a killer who is a crony capitalist, who believes in all of the stupid Republican economics and imperialism, versus a Hillary, who is a killer and evil in her own way, or Biden, who is wrong about abortion and generally right about economics. I will not vote for either Jeb or Biden, but I would prefer Biden to win that, because then I'm going to at least get Democrat economics, which are more sensible. If it's Walker versus Biden, it depends on whether or not I'm convinced Walker is sincerely pro-life and will apply a pro-life litmus test to Supreme Court nominations. If he won't, I won't vote for him, and I will prefer to see Biden win. If he convinces me that he will, I will grit my teeth and put up with the Republican economics in order to get Roe struck down. It's that simple. I won't vote for him because he's a babykiller, but I prefer Biden over a babykiller Republican, because with Biden I get better economics. I will grit my teeth and put up with Republican economic stupidity and militarism and Israel-first crap and open Borders if I think that the Republican will actually pack the Supreme Court with justices who will strike down Roe v. Wade. Democrats are better at economics than Republicans. So, when things are equal and I've babykillers on both side, I want the Democrat to win. What I really WANT is for the Republican to not be a babykillers. But the Republican Party is pro-choice, and they always put babykillers at the top. I know them by their fruit. Their words to the contrary are lies. There. I don't think I could possibly be clearer. If somebody is looking for a loyalty oath to the Republican party, they should refer to point (1): I am not a Republican. If someone wants to insist I am a Democrat, I refer to point (2) I am not a Democrat, and I do not vote for babykillers. If you don't like reading me say the same things several ways, over and over, then just take what I've said at face value. It's no "gotcha!" to say to an Independent that he prefers a specific Democrat over a specific Republican. I am not a Republican and I have no loyalty to your party. Your party offers no good policies at all, except for pro-life WHEN IT'S SINCERE. Otherwise, the Republican platform is a joke: dumb economics, suicidal foreign policy, Israel first, open borders, crony capitalism - what's not to hate? You're a clown car of stupid ideas. But you say you'll protect babies' lives - and that trumps - but only if you DO IT. Trump is talking different from you. He talks about Border control, and does so credibly. Your party gave us amnesty once and kept that conveyor belt running. Trump recognizes the need for universal health insurance. He doesn't propose single payer (though he correctly acknowledges that it is good), but speaks of a common market in the US - stripping the states of their "right" to make a mess of the market and chop it up, and imposing a federal market. That's smart. And he talks about crony capitalism, about how it has benefited him, and how it ought to start. That's honest. And he seems to have had a change of heart about abortion. I am willing to take a chance on his sincerity, in part because the Republicans are so crazed to drive him out. Anything that makes Republican partisans (other than single-issue pro-life Christians) unhappy makes me smile. You're looking for me to favor your clown car of a party. I spit on the Republican party. I think Republicans are dimwitted on key matters like war, foreign policy and economic. But the Democrats come drenched in baby blood with a heapin' helpin' o' homosexuality, and they disgust me. Having nowhere to go, I pick and choose by candidate. Presented with a babykiller on both sides, I won't VOTE for the babykiller, but I prefer Democratic economics, because they are realistic. They're not RIGHT either, but they're BETTER than the Republican nonsense. I owe your party no loyalty. They've lied to me for years. They have my contempt. If they run the right man, they might get my vote anyway. If they run Trump, they will win the White House and have the change to transform themselves into something I could support again. None of the rest of the Republican candidates can or will do that, and none of them has a hope in hell of beating the Democrats either. For your VICTORY, it's Trump, or it's nothing. For my VOTE, Walker has to convince me he'll pack the Supreme Court with pro-life justices and apply a litmus test.
I'd ease the Veep into a cush job and name Sarah Palin as his replacement. That's the best insurance policy of all.
Also, turn that around, what is with the intense hatred that TC exudes for someone (Trump) so opposed to the GOPe? I was (and kind of am) openly critical of Trump before I supported him and did so because his style of speaking tore up the process. I thoght he was running to get ratings for his series and would bow out. And I wish he did sound more presidential - I really am a fan well spoken words. Modern politicians of both parties don't sound half as eloquent as barely literate Civil War privates in their letters home. You can support Trump but be critical of him. I am hoping he becomes more polished in his speeches - there is no reason to send out tweets like he does that remind me of 12 year old girls fighting via twitter.
TL;DR I already understand.
Deep down I know you are right that Republican crapweasels are going to make sure that Trump doesn't get the nomination, that you're going to foist off Jeb Bush as your candidate, and that the Democrat is going to spank him. I'd prefer that Democrat be Biden. So, deep down I know that the next President will be a Democrat, and I've already made peace with that. I'll support Trump to the end, because he's the only one you've got who can give you the win, and who will change things as he does. You're rather lose than change, so you'll lose, and you'll deserve it.
Biden is a war monger every bit as bloody as McCain and a war criminal for his Kosovo and Serbia war support. The death of his son is probably God's punishment on him. At least I hope it is.
If so, then America lost the debate.
I live in a deep Red state. I don't have to vote for Bush but there is no chance my state flips Dem in anything less than a 45-state Dem landslide. So I have the luxury of voting as I please, knowing where the EC votes will end up. As with criminal law stories we read with surprises depending on the state the crime was in, a lot of voters are in hopelessly Blue or hopelessly Red states. So the ultimate disposition of their vote via the EC is known for years, if not decades, in advance. The states that are like this probably are more than 20 states so it isn't very unusual. Look at your own state. How much difference will it make for the EC vote of your state in 2016, no matter what you do, how much you give, how many you try to convert to or from a given candidate. There are a lot of gimme votes out there for both parties to scoop up easily.
You recall how both Biden and the Stain traveled to Georgia as candidates in 2007. Both also are big on the Colour Revolution they helped impose on Ukraine, resulting in the warfare in east Ukraine. Biden is one of the few who has actually been wrong more often than almost anyone in the Senate over the last 40 years. It is a monumental record of incompetence and wrongheadedness. McStain is barely any better but undoubtedly a bigger warmonger.
Excellent summary of the establishment! Si vis pacem, para bellum
You "understand" the way Republican generally do - which means that you can be counted on to get it wrong.
All die, as punishment for their own sins, or innocently, as victims of others' sins. It's best not to go where you go out of anger. Leave the judgment to God. It would be best, for the spiritual disposition of many people, and the good of the world, for Americans in general to give up on the idea of overseas empire and bring our forces home, cut them by 3/4 and put the remainder on the Border to stop the flow. Defend ourselves against existential threats with a strong nuclear arsenal, but save the money otherwise. And from that position, negotiate peaceful fair trade with the world. It would be best if we focused particularly on the North - on Canada and Russia - and stopped treating Russia as an adversary. They do not need to be. Their spheres of interest don't cross ours, except in the North, and there we can, and should, jointly cooperate on everything - make Russia/US the Entente Cordiale of the 21st Century. It would be best if the poor parts that we faced are the ones we neighbor, because the huge military aid we pour into Israel could, if poured into our own decayed cities and Mexico, actually permanently rectify the situation. It would be best if we did well, and thought well, and acted properly.
Nothing I do in the political sphere ever made a difference. Nor will talking about these things here. Politics is entertainment for people like you and me, nothing more.
You recall how both Biden and the Stain traveled to Georgia as candidates in 2007. Both also are big on the Colour Revolution they helped impose on Ukraine, resulting in the warfare in east Ukraine. Biden is one of the few who has actually been wrong more often than almost anyone in the Senate over the last 40 years. It is a monumental record of incompetence and wrongheadedness. McStain is barely any better but undoubtedly a bigger warmonger. I do recall - I used to be a gung ho NATO loving booster fan. When the Cold War fell I just never expected the USA would side with Muslims over Christians - even if they were the weird eastern Orthodox kind. From the 1990s till today American foreign policy has been a disaster for eastern Christianity - either the USA sides with Muslims against them like in Serbia or its policies lead to destabilized conditions that hurt them. And Biden and McCain and that hog Clinton have been at the forefront of this American made disaster as well as Bush and the neocons. I can't tell the difference. Literally, this is the thing that makes me say these provocative anti-American things as a way to push people out of their comfort zones. But it is no use. The animals are what they are.
What has Biden been wrong about, besides abortion, obviously?
You name it, Biden has been wrong about it. He's famous for this. Then there is his own scandalous conduct over the years. Sometimes I think you don't pay very close attention to the events of American politics.
I don't. I pay attention to key Supreme Court decisions, and to who makes those decisions. Therefore, I pay attention to the nominations of those figures. I pay attention to military and foreign policy decisions. I pay attention to crony capitalist and tax decisions. The rest of it is just two parties I despise squabbling over nothing and I don't bother with it. You say, "You name it, Biden has been wrong about it." Ok. Where did Biden stand on the privatization of Social Security that the Republicans pushed?
Kosovo, Bosnia, Iraq, Syria, Libya.
I think Donald Trump is a greedy, sneaky, vain megalomaniac. Having said that, if the election comes down to him as 3rd Party vs Hillary & Jeb (or Ted Cruz after his ME Christians stunt) I will RUN to the polls to vote for Donald Trump. I am not a Republican anymore and can't vote in the primary in my state as an independent so all I can do is cheer him along. Paul going after Trump was stupid - his strength is foreign policy and libertarianism and he was acting like an inquisitor for party orthodoxy. I still long for a European style Christian democrat party (big C, small d) to join but until then I am with Trump. Also, I think it is time to end our political system. We need to adopt a parliamentary proportional system of governance. Keep the senate at 2 senators each but the house should be apportioned like a parliamentary system. We would see coalition govts and a more honest and representative party system. I am sure within the GOP and Dems are like 8 to 10 different parties.
What was the right answer in each?
What was the right answer in each? The opposite of what Biden advocated.
Trump/Fiorina ticket.
And those are his good points. ‹/rimshot›
More Trump related polling. Another new online poll here via HotAir. Alternate headline: “Blogger to start gaming out President Trump’s possible VP nominees.” On the one hand, as noted by my pal Karl, this poll was conducted using Google Consumer Surveys. If you’re wary of online polls, especially ones like this that attempt to “infer” important demographic data about respondents based on their browsing history and IP, then discount these results accordingly. On the other hand, Echelon Insights is operated by Kristen Soltis Anderson and Patrick Ruffini, two of the right’s brighter lights in political data crunching. They wouldn’t have published this poll if they didn’t have good statistical reasons to think it’s accurate, I’m sure. Pop the champagne, Trump fans. And make sure it’s only the finest champagne. The classiest. Footnote: Trump actually dropped three points since the debate. Echelon had him at 32 percent in their last poll. Still, good news on balance given his team’s fears that Megyn Kelly and the Fox crew had turned the public against him. And as many other polls have detected, his support isn’t limited to tea partiers or conservative Republicans. He’s at 26 percent or better here among “traditional conservatives,” “centrists,” and even “libertarians”(!). (Among that same group of libertarians, Rand Paul finished … eighth.) Another point in favor of thinking the poll’s broadly accurate is that it’s picking up major movement for Carly Fiorina, the one candidate more than anyone else whom everyone expected to move after her stellar performance last Thursday. She gained six points since last week overall; among people who actually watched the debate, of which there were many thanks to Trump, she leaped nine points to 12 percent. Rubio, another top debate performer, also hit 12 percent among people who watched. Among people who didn’t, he and Fiorina were stuck at four percent each. So where do we stand now that we’re halfway through the week, with a bunch of post-debate polls under our belts? Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight looked at the gains and losses across the various surveys that have come out since the debate was held and found that the “winner,” by consensus, is pretty much who everyone thought won on Thursday night. Fiorina’s improvement isn’t surprising. Scott Walker’s deterioration is, given that the consensus on social media was that he’d been low-key and a bit dull at the debate but hadn’t said anything that should damage him. Walker may be suffering here from high expectations: He’s one of the few candidates whom even low-information Republicans might have heard of going in, thanks to his war with labor in Wisconsin a few years ago and his big poll surge earlier this year. Some segment of Walker fans may have had him as their default “not Trump and not Bush either” choice and then dumped him when he underwhelmed at the debate. (The main beneficiaries from that, I assume, are Rubio and Cruz.) Trump, meanwhile, suffered a modest average loss of just 2.3 points, but that’s really only thanks to the surprising Morning Consult poll from a few days ago showing him gaining seven points after the debate. Five of the other six post-debate polls had him losing ground, and four of them had him sliding four points or more. That’s a bad sign, but when you’re sitting on a 20-point lead, you can slip a little without worry. I’ll bet he prepares for the CNN debate next month no matter what his staff is telling the media about Mr. Authentic refusing to rehearse.
It'll be Jeb. Which means it'll be Hillary or Biden.
LOL right. But stranger things have happened. "When Americans reach out for values of faith, family, and caring for the needy, they're saying, "We want the word of God. We want to face the future with the Bible.'"---Ronald Reagan
Deep down, they know I'm right. But, like a teenage girl on a fling with some punk their mother disapproves of and their father would like to punch out, you can't talk them out of their summer crush. It's the only logical explanation. Sorry I didn't give you some credit. Fred too, maybe Gary, I guess. And tomder as well. Ok, I chuckled. Maybe even actually audibly LOL'ed. "Deep down"? OUCH! TC can't wear out his Trump kneepads if his GOPe Reince Princess autographed industrial strength kneedpads aren't fully worn down yet. Oy. And now you're giving out stars for the bulletin board? My guess is that 2-3 LFers on your "star" list will eventually understand the dynamics, stakes, and identity of the REAL enemy of the REAL battle here.
It is not too late to stop Bush. In 2012, if the grassroots had united around a single candidate and stuck with him no matter what, Romney could not have been the nominee. The Tea folk do seem, in my reading, to understand this. I think they are flirting around for now but a lot of people will realize they need to pick one guy to stop Bush. And Scott Walker just happens to be almost everyone's second pick (if he isn't their first pick) and has held that position consistently since polling started on the GOP field. This would not be the first time that everyone's second pick overcame their first picks. It is true of presidents and often of electing popes as well and for the same very human reasons.
I am such a notorious party hack that I use only military-grade kneepads monogrammed with RNC insignia when I post here. No difference. I won't actually care if I am the last non-Trump supporter here.
Lol...there ya go. We already have some dialogue for another Hitler parody! I guess eventually we can flip a coin to see which one of us plays an outraged Fuhrer. Or just wait for Trump's victory. ;-)
Yep. And Trump is your man, at least if you want my help. If not him, then Huckabee. No? Ok, then Carson. Not him either? Well, then, shucks, how about...Santorum? No. Can't win. Who's left then? Paul...eesh...ok. Then the rest of your party revolts. They won't have him. Fiorina? No. Pataki? No. Our list of options grows thin. Rubio? Is he really pro-life? Ok. But he'll lose the general. Walker? Is he really pro-life? Ok. But he'll lose the general. Meh. Too much work. I'll stick for the Donald. Not really interested in the seven dwarves.
One debate in August -- and with a volatile frontrunner like Trump -- and you're ready to award Trump the nomination by acclamation. How do you know if he has any idea (or intention) of assembling a real campaign? Recall the 1936 GOP candidacy of Alf Landon in 1936. Or the equally embarrassing GOP campaign of 1940. What's yer hurry? Don't you want to even see if Trump is going to campaign? BTW, Trump's entire campaign is just a couple of people and no one with experience running a national campaign. AFAIK, they haven't even worked on a national presidential campaign. Like Perot, Trump has thus far been incredibly tight with campaign money and is not spending like a real candidate who is preparing to run a political operation in multiple states and then nationwide. The only guy he had, the disreputable Roger Stone, quit him last weekend. I didn't like Stone but he had political experience going back to the Nixon era. You might at least argue he was semi-professional for a 50+ state campaign. I keep wondering if Trump really is willing to do all the travel and do all the events expected of a presidential candidate. It's a pretty grueling schedule for over a year.
Nope. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
The ones that are going to have to suck it up in the end are the closet librard lovers,like you. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
You have no clue.
To me Trump keeps stepping on his own dick and before long will only have the support of the "hard cores". He has to learn to "Engage brain before engaging mouth" if he wants to have a chance... Whom I supported.
I do have a clue about Trump's ground operation, or rather the lack of it. All the other serious candidates are building ground operations with chairmen and renting offices and hiring staff. These things don't happen magically, done overnight by little elves. A few others like Pataki and Gillmore and Graham are the only ones who are not building up campaign organizations. You realize that the ground campaign organizations for the primary season are the basis for building up your ground operation for the general election campaign. AFAIK, Trump hasn't even opened a single campaign office yet, let alone hired real staff for them. As unfair as it is, you can't win IA or NH or SC just by flying in a few times on your private 757 and telling the press how lucky the voters are that you are willing to accept the nomination from the fine people of the state. Wait until Trump meets Iowa's corn and pig farmers. That should be fun. And campaigning 14-16 hours a day? Trump is really going to do that? I just can't quite imagine it. I keep wondering if Trump will be the Second Coming of Fred Thompson. Go out to the Iowa state fair, putt around on a golf cart and basically never get heard from again. Giuliani didn't fare so well either and was reduced to a Floriduh strategy but by then McCain had big momentum and deep party backing.
He really needs to study. Basic stuff about the world, about the actual policy issues. He makes Sarah Palin look like a genius by comparison. He's lived in his little Donald Trump World in NYC for so long, he doesn't pay attention to a lot of issues that the country will expect its next president to know something about. Walker's and Bush's preparedness are questioned but Trump doesn't even qualify. Plus, he flipflops around on issues like funding or defunding PP. Who knows what he thinks about it? No one.
Trump can stand in one place, get the media, and reach the whole country. He is a celebrity, a star. He doesn't have to go shake hands in diners like nobody high-school class presidents who have worked their way up through the professional political cycle have to. He's not coming in to be a politician, he's a billionaire stepping in to the throne, and he fully intends to bypass all of the usual crap that common people have to do to get elected, by using his star power and money to do it his way. He has the eye and attention of the nation. Whatever he does, anywhere, gets attention. Nobody expects stars to go to diners. And he doesn't have to either, because people form an opinion of him from the broader brush media. They've had him in their living rooms and quoted them more than Obama. And everybody in the country has liked him in some way. They may have come to dislike him for his political positions or bluster, but at some point everybody did like him, and that's never true of a career politician. Career politicians are nobodies whom you have to encounter because they press themselves onto you for a job. Trump is already somebody. He's asking you to hire him for a few years for a specific task, a big task. He doesn't have a politician's equipment - and may not NEED it to get elected. People are sick of professional politicians and party hacks. We all see them as incompetent, corrupt, petty assholes. And we're right. Trump/Oprah is a brilliant ticket because it would certainly win. And no, they would not have to undergo a "grueling campaign". A few stops in a state to sold out crowds, televised everywhere, and they'd be rock stars. People pretend that Clinton was a rock star, or Obama, and as politicians they sort of were. But Trump is a TV star, and Oprah (yes, I'm having fun, but she IS eligible for the office, having at least one American citizen parent) - she's one of the most successful entertainers ever. Trump can do it his own way, and win. I'm going to support him no matter what. I've got no party. I hate both the parties. I look down on professional politicians. I don't think that what political people do with their lives is worthwhile. I do not view it as "serving me" or public service at all. I view it as a combination of c-rate theater and mob pressure on people. Politics diminishes the people who do it. Trump is interesting. He's not a politician, and that's to his benefit in getting people like me to follow him, and vote for him once. If it turns out to be a disaster, so what? LBJ was a disaster. Nixon was a disaster. Carter was a disaster. H.W. Bush was a disaster, and W Bush was a disaster. Trump cannot be worse than them. Unlike all of them, he actually successfully has run something hard, and real, for years. Rising in politics is not an achievement I respect, because I do not think that what politicians and civil servants do is really worthwhile activity. Nor do I think it is particularly hard, when compared with making money. Also, politicians do get rich, but that is entirely through corruption. Trump and real businessmen who have gotten rich actually did it in a way that seems straightforward and legal to me. I know, TL;DR Well, you're missing a lot.
You're right. It's over 3 months until the (worthless) IA caucus. I keep noticing how the Trump backers seem to be insisting that The Donald be coronated immediately. Fascinating. What's wrong, don't they want to see him run a 50+ state campaign? When will Donald visit (or send a surrogate) to the early contests in the six American territories that can award convention delegates. I recall Romney's sons going there and cleaning up.
He'll look at the subject intently, make a decision, and move on. What politicians do is not "hard work". They're not bright people.
Frankly that is the opinion of a nobody.
Yes he did. And all of that immense effort, and spending money on political people to do very busy things, was all useless. Suppose with movie star quality one can simply leap past that waste, and leap past having to hire all of those useless people, and connect directly with voters and get their votes. Trump is doing that. He changes the game because of charisma and celebrity. It's why he will win unless the Republicans start throwing procedural barriers against him. His opponents cannot do that, only the GOP apparatus itself can. And will. Biden will be a decent President.
Have mercy. Go back to Biden. It's slightly less insane.
Oprah is a racist c word. He was joking when he said that. Someone asked him about it at some Oprah event and he said sure or something to that effect.
Yea it's a place where everybody says "Yes sir" no matter what crap comes out of his mouth... He's been told that before... Suppose with movie star quality one can simply leap past that waste, and leap past having to hire all of those useless people, and connect directly with voters and get their votes. Giuliani still had that whole America's Mayor think, he had approval in the mid-sixties in almost every state despite some people knowing how liberal he was on abortion and gun control. And he really had a tin ear on the subject. He got dispatched by the various interest groups who defined who and what he was. I see no reason why Trump has any better chance. Like I said before: Trump but not Giuliani (who was obviously capable of running a large government as an executive)? You've got to be kidding.
You really notice how he refuses to appear on TV for interviews despite the fact that Trump Tower is only a few blocks from the major news studios. Instead, he won't leave his penthouse and travel a few blocks to appear like any other candidate engaging with the press in a normal campaign about issues. Raising the non-campaign of Alf Landon was not just an idle remark. Trump really doesn't travel well. Recall his attempt to run in 2012 when he flew his Trumpcopter up to NH for a big announcement. He got about 75 reporters there, kinda hemhawed around, told them he's the greatest, and then flew back to NYC, not to be heard from again. Trump has fizzled when it came to actual campaigning before.
Damn that was waaaaaayyy before my time... He only went what 3-4 places last time before he mailed it in??? The 1940 election was even worse. The GOP nominee ended up as such an admirer of FDR's that he went to work for him. Afterward, Roosevelt found Willkie to be compatible politically with his plans and brought him aboard as an informal ambassador-at-large. Willkie criss-crossed the globe and brought home a vision of "One World" freed from imperialism and colonialism. Following his journeys, Willkie wrote One World; a bestselling account of his travels and meetings with the Allied heads of state, as well as ordinary citizens and soldiers in regions such as Russia and Iran.[3] His liberalism lost him supporters in the Republican Party and he dropped out of the 1944 race, then several months later died of a heart attack. And people think the GOPe is horrible and pathetic today but it was totally sucky back in the Thirties. What if Romney had taken an administration job with Obama after he lost the 2012 race? Yeow.
Maybe these diehard Trump fans, who undoubtedly know more about him than we do, could provide a nice itinerary of Trump's 2012 campaign for the GOP nomination.
In California, that is how they campaign. Because of the size of the state it is all on TV.
Per this Suffolk University survey in Iowa that is not an online poll like many of the other post-debate surveys. http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10740.php Poll Documents: Press Release: Trump Leads Iowa GOP Field but Shows Less Strength among Debate Viewers Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Iowa Republican Caucus voters was conducted between August 7 and August 10, 2015, and is based on a statewide random sample drawn from a list of registered Republican voters who indicated they were very or somewhat likely to vote in their local Republican Caucuses in six months. Each of Iowa's five areas and demographic information were determined from past contested Republican presidential caucuses including 2008 and 2012, using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely caucus voters. Iowa's 99 counties were grouped into five general regions. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Key Names/Issues: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Scott Walker, FoxNews debate http://www.suffolk.edu/news/60760.php#.VcvdlflVhBc Press Release that accompanied actual Suffolk poll. August 11, 2015 With just six months until the Iowa caucuses, businessman Donald Trump (17 percent) leads the field of Republicans among likely GOP caucus voters, according to a poll from Suffolk University. Meanwhile, a subset of voters who watched the Aug. 6 Republican debate said that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Dr. Ben Carson were the most impressive candidates. The Suffolk University Iowa poll showed Gov. Scott Walker of neighboring Wisconsin second at 12 percent; Rubio, 10 percent; retired neurosurgeon Carson, 9 percent; and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and businesswoman Carly Fiorina tied at 7 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush polled at 5 percent, followed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich (3 percent), while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie were tied at 2 percent. Six other candidates received 1 percent or less, while 20 percent of voters were undecided. “It appears that Donald Trump’s lead is strong so long as the number of active opponents remains above a dozen,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “If the Republican field were winnowed down to five or six candidates, Trump’s 17 percent probably wouldn’t be enough to win in Iowa, as polling indicates that his further growth has limitations. The long-shot candidates staying in the race help keep Trump on top—at least for now.” Debate Impact The race was closer among viewers of last Thursday’s debate: Trump and Walker were tied at 14 percent, with Rubio (11 percent), Carson and Fiorina (tied at 10 percent), and Cruz (9 percent) close behind. However, among likely caucus voters who skipped watching the FOX NEWS debate, Trump (21 percent) led Carson (10 percent) by a wider margin, with Rubio and Walker tied at 8 percent. “In the absence of a debate, Trump’s lead widens because he swallows up the political oxygen, but when that oxygen is spread out more evenly in a debate, it breathes life into the other candidates, and the race gets closer,” said Paleologos. When viewers were asked about Trump after seeing him debate, 55 percent said they were less comfortable with him as a candidate for president, and 23 percent said they were more comfortable. Forty-one percent said the debate moderators targeted Trump unfairly, while 54 percent disagreed. Debate performance Both Rubio and Carson benefited from strong debate performances and are within striking distance of the leaders. When debate viewers were asked which candidate was most impressive, Rubio led with 23 percent, followed by Carson with 22 percent. Carson and Rubio also topped the field at 12 percent each as viewers’ second choice—an indicator of future growth potential. When viewers shared in their own words which debate moment they remembered most, Carson dominated, with 25 percent mentioning his closing remarks, brain surgery comments, or providing other positive feedback. Though she did not appear on the evening debate stage, Fiorina made her mark among afternoon debate viewers, 82 percent of whom said Fiorina was the most impressive of the seven candidates in the earlier debate. Among viewers of either debate, 93 percent said Fiorina should be invited to debate the top tier of Republican candidates in the future. History of Suffolk Research in Iowa In the most recent Iowa Republican primary for U.S. Senate, the April 2014 Suffolk University poll was the first to show then-State Sen. Joni Ernst overtaking front-runner Mark Jacobs. In May, Suffolk polled three bellwether counties—Black Hawk, Boone, and Washington—all of which indicated a landslide win for Ernst. She went on to defeat her four Republican opponents with a 38-point margin. Methodology The statewide survey of 500 likely Iowa presidential caucus voters was conducted Aug. 7-10, 2015, using live telephone interviews of Republican primary voter households where respondents indicated they were very or somewhat likely to attend their local caucuses for president in six months. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data are posted on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information, contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310, dpaleologos@suffolk.edu. The marginals and tables provide greater details.
Let's see Trump try that in Iowa or New Hampshire. Those people expect personal attention. I'm trying to picture Trump and his wife eating the usual ghastly rubber chicken dinner with the west Iowa corn grower's association and their lovely wives. I think he'd be back on that 757 in an hour, headed for NYC, never to return.
I focused on that earlier. If Trump won the debate, how did his support shrink among those who saw the debate and only remain steady with those who didn't see the debate. And that doesn't explain how much he got booed by the debate crowd after that first question. People blame Megyn Kelly for Trump's debate performance but Trump got booed steadily after that first question. Brett "Babyface" Baier was the one with the knife.
No! Really? I'm crushed! Here I was hoping... Trump/Rubio is a real ticket that would unite the party and win the election, and then afterwards make the country better.
Ummm, hello, 1940. WORLD WAR II! National unity was more important than party. And the Republicans had a lot to atone for too, considering that they blocked every effort to get involved earlier to stop Hitler.
I tell you it would be Cruz. They seem to genuinely admire each other.
I would vote for Trump/Cruz, happily. Unfortunately, I don't know if I'll ever get the chance.
The entire Fox staff were carry water for the GOPe. It has been your position, repeatedly, that polls do not matter. At least until one poll can be spun to Trump being the leader in all the polls, but not as significantly in the lead. Now, a poll of a few hundred people in Iowa, with Trump still in the lead means Trump lost the debate. That would be based on the opinion of a few hundred selected people in one state. Just be happy that Trump appears to have a limited ceiling, limiting his ability to win a general election. Here is Bret Baier, the baby-faced assassin. Again, we’re looking for you to raise your hand now — raise your hand now if you won’t make that pledge tonight. Mr. Trump. (BOOING) Mr. Trump to be clear, you’re standing on a Republican primary debate stage. TRUMP: I fully understand. BAIER: The place where the RNC will give the nominee the nod. TRUMP: I fully understand. BAIER: And that experts say an independent run would almost certainly hand the race over to Democrats and likely another Clinton. You can’t say tonight that you can make that pledge? TRUMP: I cannot say. I have to respect the person that, if it’s not me, the person that wins, if I do win, and I’m leading by quite a bit, that’s what I want to do. I can totally make that pledge. If I’m the nominee, I will pledge I will not run as an independent. But — and I am discussing it with everybody, but I’m, you know, talking about a lot of leverage. We want to win, and we will win. But I want to win as the Republican. I want to run as the Republican nominee. BAIER: So tonight, you can’t say if another one of these… PAUL: This is what’s wrong! BAIER: OK. PAUL: I mean, this is what’s wrong. He buys and sells politicians of all stripes, he’s already… BAIER: Dr. Paul. PAUL: Hey, look, look! He’s already hedging his bet on the Clintons, OK? So if he doesn’t run as a Republican, maybe he supports Clinton, or maybe he runs as an independent… BAIER: OK. PAUL: …but I’d say that he’s already hedging his bets because he’s used to buying politicians. TRUMP: Well, I’ve given him plenty of money. BAIER: Just to be clear, you can’t make a — we’re gonna — we’re going to move on. You’re not gonna make the pledge tonight? TRUMP: I will not make the pledge at this time. BAIER: OK. Alright. (LAUGHTER, BOOING) = = = = = = = = Mr. Trump, ObamaCare is one of the things you call a disaster. TRUMP: A complete disaster, yes. BAIER: Saying it needs to be repealed and replaced. TRUMP: Correct. BAIER: Now, 15 years ago, uncalled yourself a liberal on health care. You were for a single-payer system, a Canadian-style system. Why were you for that then and why aren’t you for it now? TRUMP: First of all, I’d like to just go back to one. In July of 2004, I came out strongly against the war with Iraq, because it was going to destabilize the Middle East. And I’m the only one on this stage that knew that and had the vision to say it. And that’s exactly what happened. BAIER: But on ObamaCare… TRUMP: And the Middle East became totally destabilized. So I just want to say. As far as single payer, it works in Canada. It works incredibly well in Scotland. It could have worked in a different age, which is the age you’re talking about here. What I’d like to see is a private system without the artificial lines around every state. I have a big company with thousands and thousands of employees. And if I’m negotiating in New York or in New Jersey or in California, I have like one bidder. Nobody can bid. You know why? Because the insurance companies are making a fortune because they have control of the politicians, of course, with the exception of the politicians on this stage. But they have total control of the politicians. They’re making a fortune. Get rid of the artificial lines and you will have… (BUZZER NOISE) TRUMP: — yourself great plans. And then we have to take care of the people that can’t take care of themselves. And I will do that through a different system. (CROSSTALK) BAIER: Mr. Trump, hold up one second. PAUL: I’ve got a news flash… BAIER: All right, now, hold on, Senator Paul… PAUL: News flash, the Republican Party’s been fighting against a single-payer system… BAIER: OK. PAUL: — for a decade. So I think you’re on the wrong side of this if you’re still arguing for a single-payer system. TRUMP: I’m not — I’m not are — I don’t think you heard me. You’re having a hard time tonight. BAIER: All right, let me… (APPLAUSE) BAIER: Mr. Trump, it’s not just your past support for single- payer health care. You’ve also supported a host of other liberal policies. Use — you’ve also donated to several Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton included, Nancy Pelosi. You explained away those donations saying you did that to get business-related favors. And you said recently, quote, “When you give, they do whatever the hell you want them to do.” TRUMP: You’d better believe it. BAIER: So what specifically did… UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That’s true. BAIER: — they do? TRUMP: If I ask them, if I need them, you know, most of the people on this stage I’ve given to, just so you understand, a lot of money. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not me. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not me. (LAUGHTER) UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But you’re welcome to give me (INAUDIBLE) Donald if you’d like. TRUMP: Many of them. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Actually, to be clear… (CROSSTALK) UNIDENTIFIED MALE: — he supported Charlie Crist. TRUMP: Not much. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hey, Charlie… (CROSSTALK) TRUMP: But I… (CROSSTALK) TRUMP: — Donald, if you… (CROSSTALK) TRUMP: I have good… UNIDENTIFIED MALE: — this campaign, I hope you will give to me. TRUMP: Good. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK. TRUMP: Sounds good. Sounds good to me, Governor. I will tell you that our system is broken. I gave to many people, before this, before two months ago, I was a businessman. I give to everybody. When they call, I give. And do you know what? When I need something from them two years later, three years later, I call them, they are there for me. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So what did you get? TRUMP: And that’s a broken system. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What did you get from Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi? TRUMP: Well, I’ll tell you what, with Hillary Clinton, I said be at my wedding and she came to my wedding. You know why? She didn’t have a choice because I gave. I gave to a foundation that, frankly, that foundation is supposed to do good. I didn’t know her money would be used on private jets going all over the world. It was. But… (BUZZER NOISE) (CROSSTALK) BAIER: Hold on. We’re going to — we’re going to move on. (CROSSTALK) BAIER: We’ll come back to you, Governor Walker. WALKER: Just one second on this, though. We — we spent a lot of time talking about Hillary Clinton and —and pitting us back and forth. Let’s be clear, we should be talking about Hillary Clinton on that last subject, because everywhere in the world that Hillary Clinton touched is more messed up today than before she and the president (INAUDIBLE). BAIER: We have many questions to come. WALKER: It’s true. BAIER: Many questions to come. (APPLAUSE)
I remember in Junior high school. This bully took on this nerdy looking kid. The nerdy lookin kid just kept punching him in the face. But the dumb ass bully ju just kept walking towards him and getting popped again. And again and again. Un Until his face was covered in blood. It was like he was getting his ass kicked bu but he was to stupid to know it. That is what you are doing to TC.
Trump isn't stupid enought to pick Rubio. If he did that I wouldn't vote for him.
You wouldn't vote for Trump because of his VP choice? You'd let Hillary or Biden win, just to prevent Rubio from being second banana for a term of Trump? Ok. I don't believe you. I think you'd take the chance on Trump's health.
If he did that I wouldn't vote for him. Rubio would be able to help deliver Florida plus hispanics, and some swooning ladies. He is the strongest GOPe candidate. As VP he could attend a lot of funerals all around the world. The VP has little function unless the president dies. If Trump falls out, Rubio could be the top of a ticket. It would be an interesting battle between Rubio and Bush as there can be only one. I would pick Rubio to prevail in that fight. Cruz is a good fit with Trump's message, and could deliver hispanics. I doubt the Dems could carry Texas if the GOP ran Alfred E. Neuman, so delivering Texas does not mean much. Cruz has the same negatives problem as Trump. Trump can do well in a crowded field, but unless he improves his favorability/unfavorability, when the field narrows, he may have difficulty attracting a majority or large plurality. 25% may win in a field of 17, but in a field of 4 or less it doesn't. It will also depend on who is on the other side and, more and more, it looks doubtful that will be Hillary. She has lost control of her server and her email nightmare. She has lost her lead in New Hampshire. And who would have thought Bernie Sanders would be filling stadiums with 20- to 30-thousand at a time?
The huge GOP field is part of why Trump has held these leads so long and through so many gaffes that would be fatal to any other candidate. This is why the smart money and the pros, like Bush and Walker and Rubio and their advisers, aren't panicked over Trump-in-August.
Wonder how long it will be before she realizes this?? Or will she hang around and just try to destroy her opposition with all the dirt she has on them?? When the dust settles and the smoke clears, the Republican nominee will be Bush, and the President will be Biden.
Or will she hang around and just try to destroy her opposition with all the dirt she has on them?? "Morpheus" Obama will give her the choice between the blue pill of prosecution and imprisonment for breaches of national security, or the red pill of stepping aside and endorsing Biden, in exchange for a full pardon after the election. She will take the red pill. There will be no drama. Also, the Clintons have been out of power for 15 years. Team Obama has been in power for 8. Team Obama is much more disciplined than the Arkansas Grifters were, and they have the CURRENT FBI and IRS files. Most of the "dirt" the Clinton's have has already passed the statute of limitations, and the powers that currently dominate the Democratic Party - Team Obama, not Team Clinton - will protect the Clintonites who come over to them, but will destroy the ones who fight for the Clintons. The Clintons are the past, and have not had their hands on current documents for a long time. Team Obama beat Team Clinton in a head to head fight in 2008, and has gotten stronger ever since. All they have left on the board now is the black Queen, and Obama is going to take her off the board without so much as a pawn sacrifice. The Clintons re done. Obama mortally wounded them in 2008, and now he will finish them off. Whether they go quietly into retirement, or fight and get dragged off in orange and in chains is up to Hillary. She submitted to the inevitable before, and she will do it again. It will be Biden. The best pick for Veep would be Sotomayor.
My guess is that 2-3 LFers on your "star" list will eventually understand the dynamics, stakes, and identity of the REAL enemy of the REAL battle here. Ouch! "When Americans reach out for values of faith, family, and caring for the needy, they're saying, "We want the word of God. We want to face the future with the Bible.'"---Ronald Reagan
Possibly. I doubt another Bush can be sold to the public. I find Rubio as a more likely alternative. Add Kasich as VP to deliver Ohio. All predicated on a Trump fall. Whether Trump goes 3rd party or not, anti-GOPe voters (think Trump,Carson,Cruz supporters, possibly Fiorina) will not vote for Bush. Many will just not vote. Biden/Warren might make a good ticket. It is a bit hard to ignore what Sanders is doing on the campaign trail. He is filling stadiums.
Even the red pill to prevent criminal prosecution will not stop the investigation of the compromise of TS/SCI information, and the potential loss of her security clearance.
But it does not explain the pygmy-like numbers of the GOPe candidates who trail not only Trump, but also Carson and Cruz. The politically active people at this stage of the campaigns, such as bloggers, are not listening to the scripted crap being mouthed by the GOPe candidates.
Biden/Sanders.
She will go into retirement and won't need a security clearance anymore. She will be immune to prosecution, and won't be. And there isn't a civil route that can really be followed. Who can claim damages? The government is the only possible party, and the government is controlled by Obama and will be controlled by Biden. When Hillary takes the red pill, she'll tell the world she is pulling out for health reasons, and the investigation will proceed, without vigor, a show. Then Obama will pardon her after the election, and Biden will take over with a clean slate and the backing of Team Obama and the members of Team Clinton who join. And maybe Bernie Sanders as his VP. Why not?
She is not legally immune, but could be pardoned. She could be prosecuted like Petraeus and get a slap on the wrist. I speculated health reasons on another thread. It's possible she actually has health reasons that keep her from a full time grueling campaign schedule. It's not like she is going to say she did something wrong. Another possibility: the unfounded allegations have become too much of a distraction and she leaves for the good of the party. Biden/Sanders is a possibility if Biden can beat Sanders. Sanders/Warren could be a good ticket. I'm surprised that Sanders, a professed socialist, is drawing such crowds, but it is reminiscent of Obama syndrome. He is definitely connecting with people. I can't picture 30,000 people turning up to hear Biden.
I'm surprised that Sanders, a professed socialist, is drawing such crowds, but it is reminiscent of Obama syndrome. He is definitely connecting with people. I can't picture 30,000 people turning up to hear Biden. If Warren gets in, she'll go for prez. She could outdraw Sanders any day and could probably beat the Xlintons. She is far less offputting than Hitlery with her cackle and grating voice. So Biden/Warren. Or Warren/Sanders.
Given Biden's age, Warren may be running for re-election after having served already as President.
There's a rumor going around of Joe planning to run for only one term if elected prez.
If she does not jump in, but Sanders goes on to win the nomination, she could be considered for the VP slot. If she does jump in, I think she can take the Dem nomination. She has said she is not getting in, at least while Hillary is there.
Warren is the only Dem that excites the Dem base enough in her own right to have a chance to win it for herself. Sanders? I really don't think you've seen enough of The Bern if you actually think he could be elected president. Socialism isn't all that popular.
She will take the red pill. There will be no drama. I don't think she will take either pill, I think she's gonna ride it out and see where this all goes... Do you seriously think she's gonna end up in jail?? I don't that's not how it works in the political class and she knows it... The key word in all this is "SHE", think about it... Obama kicked Hillary's ass and publicly humiliated her in 2008, in a direct fight for power. He's a "Muslim Lite" and doesn't really give a shit about the sentiments of women. He is in command, he has her by the ovaries, he doesn't like her or her Team, and he means to maintain control of the Democrat Party. And he will. If Hillary does not take either pill and fights, Obama will prosecute her and the country will cheer, Biden will step in directly and take over the lead, everybody who wants a future in Hillary's camp will shift colors, and she will be defeated in open battle with Obama for the SECOND time. When she lost to him before, her husband had been the last popular Democrat President. But Obama is RIGHT NOW a popular Democrat President, one not impeached, and he controls the IRS and the FBI and uses it just like the Clintons did. Hillary cannot win. And she cannot win the fight within the party. By fighting to the death, that's what she will get: political death, and she will earn herself an actual prosecution and maybe a jail cell. If she takes on Obama face to face, part of his legacy will be to have made the Clintons pay for their crimes. He doesn't intend to, but this is a guy who will drone strike Americans if it suits his interests, and he destroys people who challenge him directly. Obama wins. That's the thing about the guy: he wins. He does that by "Community Organizing". And right now the "Community" he has organized is the intelligence community, the FBI, the CIA, and the Justice Department. Hillary doesn't get to set the terms - Obama is the President, the AG and the FBI works for him. The Clintons have not been near power for fifteen years. Hillary will take the red pill, develop a health problem, retire, and Biden will get her base and walk on to the Dem nomination. And he will win the election unless the Republicans run Trump.
If Trump wins she has a good chance of going to prison. Especially if he makes someone like Ted Cruz attorney general.
#2. To: TooConservative (#1)
#3. To: TooConservative (#0)
#4. To: TooConservative (#1)
Paradoxically, the Tweetstorm over Trump and his "blood coming from her wherever" nonsense with Megyn Kelly on Friday night has obscured the rather dramatic decline in Trump's poll numbers in traditional polling (large-sample phone-based polling, not self-selected online polling like NBC/SurveyMonkey).
#5. To: Vicomte13 (#3)
Bonjour President Biden.
#6. To: sneakypete (#4)
Reason 1 is the primaries are for all pratical political purposes a lifetime away.
#7. To: Stoner, A K A Stone, buckeroo, Pericles (#2)
TC, your attitude about Trump is starting to remind me of Gatlin's towards Ron Paul.
#8. To: All (#0)
(Edited)
Trump’s New Hampshire Approval Dropped 10 Points in One Day After His Megyn Kelly Meltdown
This moron is still walking around bragging that he leads all the polls, so let him enjoy it while it lasts. Because it won’t be long until he’s polling at George Pataki levels. This carnival sideshow is about to crater.
#9. To: TooConservative (#0)
The Suffolk survey...
#10. To: All (#0)
Let’s talk about polling
#11. To: TooConservative (#0)
(Edited)
"Per this Suffolk University survey in Iowa that is not an online poll like many of the other post-debate surveys."
#12. To: TooConservative (#10)
#13. To: misterwhite (#11)
"OK staff. Find a survey, any survey, anywhere, that shows Trump didn't do as well in the debate as everyone is saying. I don't even care if it's from some obscure university in some podunk state. Just get me one I can use!"
#14. To: All (#10)
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
Twelve years ago, in August 2003, Joe Lieberman led in most polls of the Democratic primary. Eight years ago, in August 2007, Rudy Giuliani maintained a clear lead in polls of Republicans, while Hillary Clinton led in polls of the Democratic nomination contest. Four years ago, in August 2011, Mitt Romney began with the lead in polls of Republican voters, but he would be surpassed by the end of the month by Rick Perry, the first of four Republican rivals who would at some point overtake Romney in national polling averages. Footnotes
#15. To: Vicomte13 (#12)
Biden wins. And that's ok.
#16. To: Vicomte13, A K A Stone, redleghunter (#12)
But there's no doubt in my mind that if the Republicans nominate anybody but Trump, Biden wins. And that's ok.
#17. To: GrandIsland (#9)
Yeah, and there are a few guys in Montana that think he lost, one chick in kookifornia, a teenager in Jersey and a Cecil the lion activist in Texas.
#18. To: TooConservative, *The Two Parties ARE the Same* (#0)
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#19. To: misterwhite (#11)
Annnnd, Rich Lowry joins the growing list at National review that will not get an interview with Trump. There's a publication with diversity, huh?
#20. To: hondo68 (#18)
Trump won the debate on the first question by just raising his hand to indicate that he has some principals and won't necessarily back the GOP candidate, which is traditionally a POS.
#21. To: TooConservative (#19)
Trump will never get key party leaders to support him.
#22. To: TooConservative (#20)
Actually, that's when he lost the debate.
#23. To: A K A Stone (#21)
Do you dream about Donald Trump too?
#24. To: A K A Stone (#22)
You're really dumb.
#25. To: TooConservative, nolu chan (#20)
They hated him.
#26. To: TooConservative (#20)
"Why do you think he was being booed all the way through the first debate in Ohio."
#27. To: TooConservative (#23)
Fred Thompson.
#28. To: A K A Stone (#15)
Biden wins. And that's ok.
#29. To: TooConservative (#24)
Lines like that work better for Trump
#30. To: TooConservative, aka stone (#7)
" I am shorting Teh Donald's stock here at LF "
#31. To: Stoner, Gatlin (#30)
Yeah, you are acting just like gatlin. Are you two related? Seem to have the same dna.
#32. To: TooConservative (#17)
(Edited)
LOL. You really do want to go down with the ship. In this case, Trump's yacht.
#33. To: TooConservative (#31)
(Edited)
I'm surprised Gatlin hasn't turned up again. Maybe he's off slumming at TOS. He threw a tantrum and stormed out because Stone wouldn't believe something he said.
#34. To: TooConservative, Stoner, A K A Stone, buckeroo, Vicomte13, A Pole (#7)
(Edited)
TC, your attitude about Trump is starting to remind me of Gatlin's towards Ron Paul.
#35. To: TooConservative (#19)
Trump will never get key party leaders to support him.
#36. To: GrandIsland (#33)
Yeah, you are acting just like gatlin. Are you two related? Seem to have the same dna.
#37. To: nativist nationalist (#35)
Of course in the long run the ruling class is a threat to America. An aristocratic oligarchy is an anathema to the founding ideals of this nation. The ruling class has been waging war against the country class, they will need to reap what they've sown.
#38. To: Pericles, A K A Stone, Vicomte13 (#34)
" What is with this hero worship of candidates in the conservatives ranks. I don't get it. "
#39. To: TooConservative (#14)
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#40. To: Stoner (#38)
Our nation is in a struggle for survival, and I am opposed to any & all that are facilitating its destruction. That includes the GOPestablishment.
#41. To: GrandIsland (#32)
now the (R) party knows how important a WALL IS to its voting base.
#42. To: TooConservative (#37)
On the GOP plantation, the slaves get a little uppity from time to time.
#43. To: CZ82, Fred Mertz, tomder55, GarySpFc, buckeroo (#39)
You know I'm getting the distinct impression that some people are getting upset that you aren't wearing a set of Trump kneepads.
#44. To: TooConservative (#43)
#45. To: Vicomte13 (#41)
#46. To: TooConservative, A K A Stone, redleghunter (#16)
But there's no doubt in my mind that if the Republicans nominate anybody but Trump, Biden wins. And that's ok. Take out my Trump, and you still lose. I get at least half a loaf either way.
#47. To: Pericles (#45)
If I was Trump I would hire body guards lest "a crazy person acting alone" somehow takes a shot at him. He is freaking the party establishment and those people will not hesitate to kill to keep their positions.
#48. To: Stoner, A K A Stone, Vicomte13 (#38)
What is with this hero worship of candidates in the conservatives ranks. I don't get it. " I don't know. You tell me.
#49. To: Vicomte13 (#46)
Here, let me help you out. I'll write slowly, so you can understand.
#50. To: TooConservative (#43)
Deep down, they know I'm right. But, like a teenage girl on a fling with some punk their mother disapproves of and their father would like to punch out, you can't talk them out of their summer crush.
#51. To: Vicomte13, TooConservative (#50)
#52. To: TooConservative (#0)
Yes, Trump Lost the Debate
#53. To: Vicomte13 (#50)
that you're going to foist off Jeb Bush as your candidate
#54. To: Pericles (#51)
Biden is a war monger every bit as bloody as McCain and a war criminal for his Kosovo and Serbia war support. The death of his son is probably God's punishment on him. At least I hope it is.
#55. To: Vicomte13 (#50)
" You're rather lose than change, so you'll lose, and you'll deserve it. "
#56. To: TooConservative (#49)
I already understand.
#57. To: Pericles (#51)
The death of his son is probably God's punishment on him.
#58. To: TooConservative (#53)
(Edited)
Look at your own state. How much difference will it make for the EC vote of your state in 2016, no matter what you do, how much you give, how many you try to convert to or from a given candidate.
#59. To: TooConservative, Vicomte13, redleghunter (#54)
Biden is a war monger every bit as bloody as McCain and a war criminal for his Kosovo and Serbia war support. The death of his son is probably God's punishment on him. At least I hope it is.
#60. To: TooConservative (#54)
Biden is one of the few who has actually been wrong more often than almost anyone in the Senate over the last 40 years. It is a monumental record of incompetence and wrongheadedness.
#61. To: Vicomte13 (#60)
#62. To: TooConservative (#61)
(Edited)
Sometimes I think you don't pay very close attention to the events of American politics.
#63. To: Vicomte13, TooConservative (#60)
What has Biden been wrong about, besides abortion, obviously?
#64. To: TooConservative (#53)
(Edited)
#65. To: Pericles (#63)
Kosovo, Bosnia, Iraq, Syria, Libya.
#66. To: Vicomte13 (#65)
Kosovo, Bosnia, Iraq, Syria, Libya.
#67. To: TooConservative (#10)
#68. To: Pericles (#64)
I think Donald Trump is a greedy, sneaky, vain megalomaniac.
#69. To: All (#0)
(Edited)
Echelon Insights post-debate poll: Trump 29, Carson 10, Fiorina 9, Rubio 9, Bush 9
#70. To: TooConservative (#69)
Scott Walker’s deterioration is,
#71. To: Pericles (#67)
Trump/Fiorina ticket.
#72. To: TooConservative, CZ82, Fred Mertz, tomder55, GarySpFc, buckeroo, Stoner, nativist nationalist, redleghunter (#43)
You know I'm getting the distinct impression that some people are getting upset that you aren't wearing a set of Trump kneepads.
#73. To: Vicomte13 (#70)
It'll be Jeb. Which means it'll be Hillary or Biden.
#74. To: Liberator (#72)
TC can't wear out his Trump kneepads if his GOPe Reince Princess autographed industrial strength kneedpads aren't fully worn down yet.
My guess is that 2-3 LFers on your "star" list will eventually understand the dynamics, stakes, and identity of the REAL enemy of the REAL battle here.
#75. To: TooConservative (#74)
I am such a notorious party hack that I use only military-grade kneepads monogrammed with RNC insignia when I post here.
#76. To: TooConservative (#73)
It is not too late to stop Bush.
#77. To: Vicomte13 (#76)
Meh. Too much work. I'll stick for the Donald. Not really interested in the seven dwarves.
Landon proved to be an ineffective campaigner who rarely traveled. Most of the attacks on FDR and Social Security were developed by Republican campaigners rather than Landon himself. In the two months after his nomination he made no campaign appearances. As columnist Westbrook Pegler lampooned, "Considerable mystery surrounds the disappearance of Alfred M. Landon of Topeka, Kansas.... The Missing Persons Bureau has sent out an alarm bulletin bearing Mr. Landon's photograph and other particulars, and anyone having information of his whereabouts is asked to communicate direct with the Republican National Committee."
#78. To: TooConservative (#7)
Maybe I am the last non-Trumpster (other than Choo-Choo Man) here at LF.
#79. To: GrandIsland (#9)
Suck it up, closet libtard haters.
#80. To: TooConservative (#77)
#81. To: TooConservative (#43)
So Trump is good for business at Fox News and at LibertysFlame. : )
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#82. To: TooConservative (#77)
Like Perot
#83. To: A K A Stone (#80)
You have no clue.
#84. To: CZ82 (#81)
He has to learn to "Engage brain before engaging mouth" if he wants to have a chance...
#85. To: TooConservative (#77)
I keep wondering if Trump really is willing to do all the travel and do all the events expected of a presidential candidate. It's a pretty grueling schedule for over a year.
#86. To: sneakypete (#78)
Nope.
#87. To: TooConservative (#84)
Who knows what he thinks about it? No one
#88. To: TooConservative (#83)
As unfair as it is, you can't win IA or NH or SC just by flying in a few times on your private 757 and telling the press how lucky the voters are that you are willing to accept the nomination from the fine people of the state.
#89. To: TooConservative (#83)
Giuliani didn't fare so well either and was reduced to a Floriduh strategy but by then McCain had big momentum and deep party backing.
#90. To: Vicomte13 (#85)
Trump/Oprah is a brilliant ticket because it would certainly win.
#91. To: Vicomte13 (#85)
Trump/Oprah is a brilliant ticket because it would certainly win.
#92. To: TooConservative (#84)
He's lived in his little Donald Trump World in NYC for so long
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#93. To: A K A Stone (#91)
Oprah is a racist
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#94. To: Vicomte13 (#89)
Yes he did. And all of that immense effort, and spending money on political people to do very busy things, was all useless.
#95. To: CZ82 (#92)
Yea it's a place where everybody says "Yes sir" no matter what crap comes out of his mouth...
#96. To: TooConservative (#95)
Raising the non-campaign of Alf Landon was not just an idle remark.
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#97. To: TooConservative (#95)
Trump has fizzled when it came to actual campaigning before.
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#98. To: CZ82, Vicomte13, Pericles (#96)
Damn that was waaaaaayyy before my time...
Wilkie did at least do enough to somewhat revive the GOP after Landon's disastrous non-campaign in '36. Wendell Lewis Willkie (February 18, 1892 – October 8, 1944) was a corporate lawyer in the United States and a dark horse who became the Republican Party nominee for president in 1940. A member of the liberal wing of the party, he crusaded against those domestic policies of the New Deal that he thought were inefficient and anti-business. Willkie, an internationalist,[2] needed the votes of the large isolationist element, so he waffled on the bitterly debated issue of America's role in World War II, losing support from both sides. His opponent, incumbent President Franklin D. Roosevelt, won the 1940 election with 55% of the popular vote and 85% of the electoral vote.
#99. To: CZ82, sneakypete (#97)
He only went what 3-4 places last time before he mailed it in???
#100. To: TooConservative (#95)
You really notice how he refuses to appear on TV for interviews despite the fact that Trump Tower is only a few blocks from the major news studios. Instead, he won't leave his penthouse and travel a few blocks to appear like any other candidate engaging with the press in a normal campaign about issues.
#101. To: TooConservative (#0)
Yes, Trump Lost the Debate
Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
August 11, 2015
Marginals (PDF)
Tables (PDF) Poll: Trump Leads Iowa GOP Field but Shows Less Strength among Debate Viewers
#102. To: Pericles (#100)
#103. To: nolu chan (#101)
Poll: Trump Leads Iowa GOP Field but Shows Less Strength among Debate Viewers
#104. To: A K A Stone (#91)
He was joking when he said that.
#105. To: TooConservative (#98)
#106. To: Vicomte13 (#104)
Trump/Rubio is a real ticket that would unite the party and win the election, and then afterwards make the country better.
#107. To: TooConservative (#106)
#108. To: TooConservative (#103)
I focused on that earlier. If Trump won the debate, how did his support shrink among those who saw the debate and only remain steady with those who didn't see the debate. And that doesn't explain how much he got booed by the debate crowd after that first question. People blame Megyn Kelly for Trump's debate performance but Trump got booed steadily after that first question. Brett "Babyface" Baier was the one with the knife.
BAIER: Gentlemen, we know how much you love hand-raising questions. So we promise, this is the only one tonight: the only one. Is there anyone on stage, and can I see hands, who is unwilling tonight to pledge your support to the eventual nominee of the Republican party and pledge to not run an independent campaign against that person.
BAIER: Gentlemen, the next series of questions deals with ObamaCare and the role of the federal government.
#109. To: nolu chan (#101)
#110. To: Vicomte13 (#104)
Trump/Rubio is a real ticket that would unite the party and win the election, and then afterwards make the country better.
#111. To: TooConservative (#106)
#112. To: A K A Stone (#110)
#113. To: A K A Stone, Vicomte13 (#110)
Trump isn't stupid enought to pick Rubio.
#114. To: nolu chan (#113)
(Edited)
Trump can do well in a crowded field, but unless he improves his favorability/unfavorability, when the field narrows, he may have difficulty attracting a majority or large plurality.
#115. To: nolu chan (#113)
It will also depend on who is on the other side and, more and more, it looks doubtful that will be Hillary.
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#116. To: nolu chan (#113)
It will also depend on who is on the other side and, more and more, it looks doubtful that will be Hillary.
#117. To: CZ82 (#115)
Wonder how long it will be before she realizes this??
#118. To: Liberator (#72)
Oy. And now you're giving out stars for the bulletin board?
#119. To: Vicomte13 (#116)
When the dust settles and the smoke clears, the Republican nominee will be Bush, and the President will be Biden.
#120. To: Vicomte13, CZ82 (#117)
"Morpheus" Obama will give her the choice between the blue pill of prosecution and imprisonment for breaches of national security, or the red pill of stepping aside and endorsing Biden, in exchange for a full pardon after the election.
#121. To: TooConservative (#114)
The huge GOP field is part of why Trump has held these leads so long and through so many gaffes that would be fatal to any other candidate.
#122. To: nolu chan (#119)
It is a bit hard to ignore what Sanders is doing on the campaign trail. He is filling stadiums.
#123. To: nolu chan (#120)
Even the red pill to prevent criminal prosecution will not stop the investigation of the compromise of TS/SCI information, and the potential loss of her security clearance.
#124. To: Vicomte13 (#123)
(Edited)
She will be immune to prosecution, and won't be.
When Hillary takes the red pill, she'll tell the world she is pulling out for health reasons
#125. To: nolu chan (#124)
Biden/Sanders is a possibility if Biden can beat Sanders. Sanders/Warren could be a good ticket.
#126. To: TooConservative (#125)
If Warren gets in, she'll go for prez.
#127. To: Vicomte13 (#126)
Given Biden's age, Warren may be running for re-election after having served already as President.
#128. To: TooConservative (#125)
If Warren gets in, she'll go for prez.
#129. To: nolu chan (#128)
#130. To: Vicomte13 (#117)
"Morpheus" Obama will give her the choice between the blue pill of prosecution and imprisonment for breaches of national security, or the red pill of stepping aside and endorsing Biden, in exchange for a full pardon after the election.
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#131. To: CZ82 (#130)
#132. To: CZ82 (#130)
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