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Title: Yes, Trump Lost the Debate
Source: National Review
URL Source: http://www.nationalreview.com/corne ... 4/trump-lost-debate-rich-lowry
Published: Aug 12, 2015
Author: Rich Lowry
Post Date: 2015-08-12 09:37:23 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 15404
Comments: 132

Per this Suffolk University survey in Iowa that is not an online poll like many of the other post-debate surveys. Trump didn’​t suffer a catastrophe (he still leads in the state), but the debate hurt him:

The Suffolk survey has warning signs for Trump. By 2-1, 55%-23%, those surveyed say watching Trump in the debate made them feel less comfortable rather than more comfortable with him as a candidate for president. A 54% majority also reject Trump’s complaints that he was treated unfairly by the Fox News anchors who served as moderators; 41% agree with him.

And a third of Iowa Republicans say Trump – enmeshed in a post-debate contretemps over his comments about Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly – “doesn’t show appropriate respect for women.” A larger number, 46%, side with the real-estate mogul and reality-TV star, saying criticism of his comments about women “are just examples of political correctness.”

Then there’s this: Trump scores a big lead among those who didn’t watch the debate, at 21%, double the standing of retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who finishes second at 10%. But among those who watched the debate, Trump does less well, tied with Walker at 14%.

Trump is at 17 percent, Walker at 12 percent, Rubio at 10 percent, Carson at 9 percent, Ted Cruz at 7 percent, Fiorina at 7 percent, Bush at 5 percent, Kasich at 3 percent, Huckabee at 2 percent, Paul at 2 percent, and Christie at 2 percent.

Meanwhile, Trump still leads in New Hampshire, but is lower than he had been in prior surveys:

And Rasmussen has Trump losing altitude nationally:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Trump with 17% support among Likely Republican Primary Voters, down from 26% in late July before the first GOP debate. Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in second place with 10% support each, in a near tie with Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote.

Next with eight percent (8%) come retired neurologist Dr. Ben Carson and Senator Ted Cruz at seven percent (7%). (To see survey question wording, click here.)


Poster Comment:

Trump's highest Suffolk poll standing in IA is among people who didn't watch the debate. So Trump polls best among Iowa's Know-Nothings. He could have advocated full-blown Soviet communism and still been their pick.

You can't deny that NR is still a hotbed of Trump haters ("Witless Ape Rides Escalator") so take it all, like any these goofy August name-recognition polls, with a big grain of salt.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 46.

#10. To: All (#0)

A bit more on about these online polls.

NeoNeocon, 8/11/15:

Let’s talk about polling

One thing I’ve noticed is that all of the post-debate polls I’ve located so far (except two that only deal with Iowa; see this and this) are online polls.[* see below]

Now, they’re not the sort of online polls that have no science whatsoever to them, where anyone can vote over and over and they’re easy to game (usually by Paul-supporters, although I don’t see them having the same enthusiasm for Rand as they did for Ron). These recent post-debate online post-debate polls are better than that; for example, they try to weight their subjects as regards party affiliation, etc. But as unreliable as ordinary polls can be, these tend to be even more unreliable.

So I doubt that we know all that well who has really gotten a bump from the debate, who has fallen, and who has remained the same, although we know what people on blogs are saying and what the pundits are writing. We also know whose coffers are getting an infusion of money (Fiorina) and who is going broke (Perry, who I predict will drop out fairly soon if that report is correct).

Putting that aside, here’s a question I’d like to see answered in future polls: who did you vote for in the last presidential election? I have a completely untested theory that quite a few of those who say their favorite candidate is Trump and that they will vote for him in the primary are people who previously had been so turned off by politics and the GOP that they quit voting a while ago. I would predict that perhaps a third of them hadn’t voted in 2012 (or wrote in a candidate), and hadn’t planned to vote in 2016 except for Trump’s candidacy.

Another question that interests me regarding polling is one that was broached by commenter “beth”:

There is an interesting thing about these polls and even Steven Crowder has picked up on it, can you find anyone who says they are voting for Bush? I can’t. Do any of you know anyone? How in the heck is he in 2nd and 3rd place?

Beth is voicing what I’d call the Pauline Kael fallacy (actually, the pseudo fallacy, because Kael was somewhat misquoted). Just because you or I don’t know a single person who is supporting Bush doesn’t mean such people don’t exist. Actually, I hardly know anyone who votes Republican to begin with, but the few I know are not Bush-supporters.

However, Bush has a lot of money, so somebody out there likes him. There are still quite a few moderate Republicans around, and in fact I know one of them quite well, although I haven’t talked to her recently and I certainly haven’t talked to her about the election. But she is what used to be known as a “country-club Republican.” She was raised a Republican in a very country-clubby family and still lives that sort of life, for the most part. She’s also what you might call a Republican LIV; doesn’t pay all that much attention to politics but almost always votes and votes Republican.

As I said, I don’t talk to her often and haven’t talked to her this election cycle. But if I had to guess, she’s a Bush supporter. She’s not alone in her political viewpoints and background, either. That’s where his support comes from, I believe—that and the Chamber of Commerce-ers (a certain amount of overlap there, I’d guess). I believe the polls are accurately reflecting those groups, although they’re not groups whose representatives you find on blogs all that often. They’ve got better things to do, especially in the summer: golf, sailing, drinks on the patio, you know the drill.

I’ll have to remember to ask her next time I see her, because now I’ve gotten curious.

So, do you know any Bush-supporters?

[ADDENDUM: Nate Silver has an interesting take on the Trump polling figures and what they mean.]

[* Commenter “jack” has offered a link to a post-debate Rasmussen poll.]

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   10:45:39 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: TooConservative (#10)

Lots of people like Trump. So the media is taking him out, and you're happy about it. You're going to get some milquetoast eunuch, and you will be happy about that...until, with the media's help, he is shoved aside in favor of Biden.

Then you won't be happy at all.

Meanwhile, I will be happy if Trump wins. And I will be in shoulder-shrug-get- on-with-life mode if either Walker or Biden win.

But there's no doubt in my mind that if the Republicans nominate anybody but Trump, Biden wins. And that's ok.

Take out my Trump, and you still lose. I get at least half a loaf either way.

Sucks to be you.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-08-12   10:50:11 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: Vicomte13, A K A Stone, redleghunter (#12)

But there's no doubt in my mind that if the Republicans nominate anybody but Trump, Biden wins. And that's ok.

Take out my Trump, and you still lose. I get at least half a loaf either way.

You openly admit what you've denied recently: that you favor a President Biden. As I said all along.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   11:02:58 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#46. To: TooConservative, A K A Stone, redleghunter (#16)

But there's no doubt in my mind that if the Republicans nominate anybody but Trump, Biden wins. And that's ok. Take out my Trump, and you still lose. I get at least half a loaf either way.

You openly admit what you've denied recently: that you favor a President Biden. As I said all along.

You really do have a reading comprehension problem.

Here, let me help you out. I'll write slowly, so you can understand.

(1) I am not a Republican.

(2) I am not a Democrat.

(3) I do not vote for babykillers. That means no Democrats, no Pataki, no Fiorina, and no Jeb - he killed Terri Schiavo.

If the Republicans want my vote, they have to become pro-life and use their power to strike Roe. And they have to stop espousing foolish and evil economics, they have to stop being imperialists and Israel firsters.

If the Democrats want my vote, they have to become pro-life and stop exulting in sexual immorality, and they have to stop being imperialists and Israel firsters.

In the absence of that I will only consider voting for Republicans whom I believe to really BE pro-life, as opposed to one more con in the Republican game.

So I WOULD vote for Huckabee or Santorum. And I MIGHT vote for Paul, Carson or Walker, if they actually persuaded me they really ARE pro-life and not just the typical Republican cons.

The Republican nominee will be Jeb or Walker.

With Jeb, I get a killer who is a crony capitalist, who believes in all of the stupid Republican economics and imperialism, versus a Hillary, who is a killer and evil in her own way, or Biden, who is wrong about abortion and generally right about economics.

I will not vote for either Jeb or Biden, but I would prefer Biden to win that, because then I'm going to at least get Democrat economics, which are more sensible.

If it's Walker versus Biden, it depends on whether or not I'm convinced Walker is sincerely pro-life and will apply a pro-life litmus test to Supreme Court nominations. If he won't, I won't vote for him, and I will prefer to see Biden win. If he convinces me that he will, I will grit my teeth and put up with the Republican economics in order to get Roe struck down.

It's that simple.

I won't vote for him because he's a babykiller, but I prefer Biden over a babykiller Republican, because with Biden I get better economics.

I will grit my teeth and put up with Republican economic stupidity and militarism and Israel-first crap and open Borders if I think that the Republican will actually pack the Supreme Court with justices who will strike down Roe v. Wade.

Democrats are better at economics than Republicans.

So, when things are equal and I've babykillers on both side, I want the Democrat to win.

What I really WANT is for the Republican to not be a babykillers. But the Republican Party is pro-choice, and they always put babykillers at the top. I know them by their fruit. Their words to the contrary are lies.

There.

I don't think I could possibly be clearer.

If somebody is looking for a loyalty oath to the Republican party, they should refer to point (1): I am not a Republican. If someone wants to insist I am a Democrat, I refer to point (2) I am not a Democrat, and I do not vote for babykillers.

If you don't like reading me say the same things several ways, over and over, then just take what I've said at face value.

It's no "gotcha!" to say to an Independent that he prefers a specific Democrat over a specific Republican. I am not a Republican and I have no loyalty to your party. Your party offers no good policies at all, except for pro-life WHEN IT'S SINCERE. Otherwise, the Republican platform is a joke: dumb economics, suicidal foreign policy, Israel first, open borders, crony capitalism - what's not to hate? You're a clown car of stupid ideas. But you say you'll protect babies' lives - and that trumps - but only if you DO IT.

Trump is talking different from you. He talks about Border control, and does so credibly. Your party gave us amnesty once and kept that conveyor belt running.

Trump recognizes the need for universal health insurance. He doesn't propose single payer (though he correctly acknowledges that it is good), but speaks of a common market in the US - stripping the states of their "right" to make a mess of the market and chop it up, and imposing a federal market. That's smart.

And he talks about crony capitalism, about how it has benefited him, and how it ought to start. That's honest.

And he seems to have had a change of heart about abortion. I am willing to take a chance on his sincerity, in part because the Republicans are so crazed to drive him out. Anything that makes Republican partisans (other than single-issue pro-life Christians) unhappy makes me smile.

You're looking for me to favor your clown car of a party. I spit on the Republican party. I think Republicans are dimwitted on key matters like war, foreign policy and economic.

But the Democrats come drenched in baby blood with a heapin' helpin' o' homosexuality, and they disgust me.

Having nowhere to go, I pick and choose by candidate. Presented with a babykiller on both sides, I won't VOTE for the babykiller, but I prefer Democratic economics, because they are realistic.

They're not RIGHT either, but they're BETTER than the Republican nonsense.

I owe your party no loyalty. They've lied to me for years. They have my contempt. If they run the right man, they might get my vote anyway. If they run Trump, they will win the White House and have the change to transform themselves into something I could support again.

None of the rest of the Republican candidates can or will do that, and none of them has a hope in hell of beating the Democrats either. For your VICTORY, it's Trump, or it's nothing.

For my VOTE, Walker has to convince me he'll pack the Supreme Court with pro-life justices and apply a litmus test.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-08-12   14:23:42 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 46.

#49. To: Vicomte13 (#46)

Here, let me help you out. I'll write slowly, so you can understand.

TL;DR

I already understand.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12 14:27:47 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 46.

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