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See other politics and politicians Articles

Title: Yes, Trump Lost the Debate
Source: National Review
URL Source: http://www.nationalreview.com/corne ... 4/trump-lost-debate-rich-lowry
Published: Aug 12, 2015
Author: Rich Lowry
Post Date: 2015-08-12 09:37:23 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 15499
Comments: 132

Per this Suffolk University survey in Iowa that is not an online poll like many of the other post-debate surveys. Trump didn’​t suffer a catastrophe (he still leads in the state), but the debate hurt him:

The Suffolk survey has warning signs for Trump. By 2-1, 55%-23%, those surveyed say watching Trump in the debate made them feel less comfortable rather than more comfortable with him as a candidate for president. A 54% majority also reject Trump’s complaints that he was treated unfairly by the Fox News anchors who served as moderators; 41% agree with him.

And a third of Iowa Republicans say Trump – enmeshed in a post-debate contretemps over his comments about Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly – “doesn’t show appropriate respect for women.” A larger number, 46%, side with the real-estate mogul and reality-TV star, saying criticism of his comments about women “are just examples of political correctness.”

Then there’s this: Trump scores a big lead among those who didn’t watch the debate, at 21%, double the standing of retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who finishes second at 10%. But among those who watched the debate, Trump does less well, tied with Walker at 14%.

Trump is at 17 percent, Walker at 12 percent, Rubio at 10 percent, Carson at 9 percent, Ted Cruz at 7 percent, Fiorina at 7 percent, Bush at 5 percent, Kasich at 3 percent, Huckabee at 2 percent, Paul at 2 percent, and Christie at 2 percent.

Meanwhile, Trump still leads in New Hampshire, but is lower than he had been in prior surveys:

And Rasmussen has Trump losing altitude nationally:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Trump with 17% support among Likely Republican Primary Voters, down from 26% in late July before the first GOP debate. Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in second place with 10% support each, in a near tie with Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote.

Next with eight percent (8%) come retired neurologist Dr. Ben Carson and Senator Ted Cruz at seven percent (7%). (To see survey question wording, click here.)


Poster Comment:

Trump's highest Suffolk poll standing in IA is among people who didn't watch the debate. So Trump polls best among Iowa's Know-Nothings. He could have advocated full-blown Soviet communism and still been their pick.

You can't deny that NR is still a hotbed of Trump haters ("Witless Ape Rides Escalator") so take it all, like any these goofy August name-recognition polls, with a big grain of salt.

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#13. To: misterwhite (#11)

"OK staff. Find a survey, any survey, anywhere, that shows Trump didn't do as well in the debate as everyone is saying. I don't even care if it's from some obscure university in some podunk state. Just get me one I can use!"

Exactly.... and journalistically, it's the YELLA thing to do.

I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح

GrandIsland  posted on  2015-08-12   10:50:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: All (#10)

And more from Nate Silver:

Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination

Twelve years ago, in August 2003, Joe Lieberman led in most polls of the Democratic primary. Eight years ago, in August 2007, Rudy Giuliani maintained a clear lead in polls of Republicans, while Hillary Clinton led in polls of the Democratic nomination contest. Four years ago, in August 2011, Mitt Romney began with the lead in polls of Republican voters, but he would be surpassed by the end of the month by Rick Perry, the first of four Republican rivals who would at some point overtake Romney in national polling averages.

Lieberman, Clinton, Giuliani and Perry, as you’ve probably gathered, are not the faces atop Mount Rushmore. Only Clinton came close to winning the nomination.

But the problem isn’t just that the national polls at this stage in the race lack empirical power to predict the nomination; it’s also that they describe a fiction. I don’t mean to suggest that Donald Trump’s support in the polls is “fake.” I have no doubt that some people really love him or that he’d be the favorite if you held a national, winner-take-all Republican primary tomorrow. However, the “election” these polls describe is hypothetical in at least five ways:

  • They contemplate a vote today, but we’re currently 174 days from the Iowa caucuses.
  • They contemplate a national primary, but states vote one at a time or in small groups.
  • They contemplate a race with 17 candidates, but several candidates will drop out before Iowa and several more will drop out before the other states vote.
  • They contemplate1 a winner-take-all vote, but most states are not winner-take-all.
  • They contemplate a vote among all Republican-leaning registered voters or adults, but in fact only a small fraction of them will turn out for primaries and caucuses.

This is why it’s exasperating that the mainstream media has become obsessed with how Trump is performing in these polls.

So you should ignore those national polls entirely? In a literal sense, they do have some correlation with election outcomes: Even this far out, a candidate near the top of the polls is a somewhat better bet to win the nomination than one near the bottom. But that’s like projecting a major league pitcher’s numbers from high school stats: Sure, you’d rather draft a random 17-year-old with a 2.14 ERA than another one with a 3.31 ERA if that’s all the information you have to go by. But that data doesn’t reveal very much, and its predictive power tends to be swamped by other indicators (everything from the pitcher’s strikeout-to-walk ratio to his scouting reports).

In the case of presidential primaries, indicators such as endorsements and support from party elites tend to be more reliable indicators of eventual success. To the extent that you’re looking at polls, you should probably adjust for name recognition and the amount of media attention a candidate is receiving. And you should account for favorability numbers and second-choice preferences, since all but a few candidates will eventually drop out of the running.

It’s possible — pretty easy, in fact — for a candidate to improve his standing in the polls while he simultaneously lowers his chance to become the nominee. Currently, the average GOP voter has a favorable view of seven Republican candidates; being agreeable won’t help you stand out in the near term, even though the nomination is a consensus-building process in the long term.

What about being a jerk? If you can make yourself the center of attention — and no candidate in modern memory has been more skilled at that than Trump — you can potentially turn the polls into a referendum on your candidacy. It’s possible that many GOP voters are thinking about the race in just that way now. First, they ask themselves whether they would vote for Trump; if not, they then choose among the 16 other candidates. The neat thing about this is that you can overwhelmingly lose the majority in the referendum — 75 percent of Republicans are not voting for Trump — and yet still hold the plurality so long as the “no” vote is divided among a sufficient number of alternatives.

Another trade-off comes from entrenching your appeal with a narrow segment of the electorate at the expense of broadening your coalition. I’ve seen a lot written about how Trump’s candidacy heralds a new type of populism. If it does, this type of populism isn’t actually very popular. Trump’s overall favorability ratings2 are miserable, about 30 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable, and they haven’t improved (whatever gains he’s made among Republicans have been offset by his declines among independents and Democrats). To some extent, the 30 percent may like Trump precisely because they know the 60 percent don’t like him. More power to the 30 percent: I have plenty of my own issues with the political establishment. But running a campaign that caters to (for lack of a better term) contrarians is exactly how you ensure that you’ll never reach a majority.3

At FiveThirtyEight, however, we’re fairly agnostic about what will happen to Trump’s polling in the near term. It’s possible that he’s already peaked — or that he’ll hold his support all the way through Iowa and New Hampshire, possibly even winning one or two early states, as similar candidates like Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingrich have in the past.4 Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination. It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.

Read more: The Bernie Sanders Surge Appears To Be Over

Footnotes

  1. At least in the way the media usually interprets them. ^
  2. That is, among all Americans, not just Republicans. ^
  3. Nor, in all likelihood, could Trump win with a plurality of votes or delegates because the Republican Party, which controls the nomination process, would unite against him. ^
  4. There are a lot of in-between cases, of course: Trump could hold his support until a few weeks before the voting starts and then see it collapse rather suddenly, as happened to Howard Dean in 2004. ^

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   11:00:42 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: Vicomte13 (#12)

Biden wins. And that's ok.

Democrat talk.

A K A Stone  posted on  2015-08-12   11:00:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: Vicomte13, A K A Stone, redleghunter (#12)

But there's no doubt in my mind that if the Republicans nominate anybody but Trump, Biden wins. And that's ok.

Take out my Trump, and you still lose. I get at least half a loaf either way.

You openly admit what you've denied recently: that you favor a President Biden. As I said all along.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   11:02:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: GrandIsland (#9)

Yeah, and there are a few guys in Montana that think he lost, one chick in kookifornia, a teenager in Jersey and a Cecil the lion activist in Texas.

So fucking what. He's leading every other poll. Suck it up, closet libtard haters.

LOL. You really do want to go down with the ship. In this case, Trump's yacht.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   11:04:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: TooConservative, *The Two Parties ARE the Same* (#0)

Trump won the debate on the first question by just raising his hand to indicate that he has some principals and won't necessarily back the GOP candidate, which is traditionally a POS. None of the others did, indicating that they're lockstep party hacks who'll back Satan should he receive the GOP nomination.

That's a likely possibility with a Bush! running.


The D&R terrorists hate us because we're free, to vote second party
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul

Hondo68  posted on  2015-08-12   11:06:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#19. To: misterwhite (#11)

Annnnd, Rich Lowry joins the growing list at National review that will not get an interview with Trump. There's a publication with diversity, huh?

They don't care. They believe it is impossible for Trump to get the nomination.

Trump will never get key party leaders to support him. Historically, it is the single strongest factor in securing the nomination. Just ask the Xlintons. That's how Obama beat them (along with playing a strong game in the delegate caucuses that follow immediately after many state primaries and playing the superdelegate game well).

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   11:07:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: hondo68 (#18)

Trump won the debate on the first question by just raising his hand to indicate that he has some principals and won't necessarily back the GOP candidate, which is traditionally a POS.

Actually, that's when he lost the debate. The dustup with Megyn Kelly obscured that.

A lot of GOP viewers did not like his threat to go Perot on them after he filed for the GOP nomination and accepted a slot in the debates. Why do you think he was being booed all the way through the first debate in Ohio. They hated him.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   11:09:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: TooConservative (#19)

Trump will never get key party leaders to support him.

Do you dream about Donald Trump too?

A K A Stone  posted on  2015-08-12   11:09:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#22. To: TooConservative (#20)

Actually, that's when he lost the debate.

You're really dumb.

A K A Stone  posted on  2015-08-12   11:11:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#23. To: A K A Stone (#21)

Do you dream about Donald Trump too?

Nope.

What's wrong, starting to recall what it felt like to support Fred Thompson to your dying breath as he doddered around the Iowa state fair?

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   11:11:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#24. To: A K A Stone (#22)

You're really dumb.

I am, aren't I?

Lines like that work better for Trump because he has (or claims to have) $10 billion.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   11:13:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#25. To: TooConservative, nolu chan (#20)

They hated him.

Now you are lying again. Chan already gave you a break down on applauses. Trump got the most.

Why do you feel the need to lie? Karl Rove is oozing out of your ....

A K A Stone  posted on  2015-08-12   11:14:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#26. To: TooConservative (#20)

"Why do you think he was being booed all the way through the first debate in Ohio."

Huh?

misterwhite  posted on  2015-08-12   11:15:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#27. To: TooConservative (#23)

Fred Thompson.

He was a joke. I always knew that. He was there to help take out Ron Paul.

I remember that loser was in the debate the excluded Paul from. Then he was at the bottom of the pack behind Ron Paul.

A K A Stone  posted on  2015-08-12   11:16:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#28. To: A K A Stone (#15)

Biden wins. And that's ok.

Democrat talk.

Truth.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-08-12   11:17:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#29. To: TooConservative (#24)

Lines like that work better for Trump

It wasn't a line. It was a truthful observation.

A K A Stone  posted on  2015-08-12   11:17:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#30. To: TooConservative, aka stone (#7)

" I am shorting Teh Donald's stock here at LF "

Yeah, you are acting just like gatlin. Are you two related? Seem to have the same dna.

You need to seek help!

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Stoner  posted on  2015-08-12   11:21:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#31. To: Stoner, Gatlin (#30)

Yeah, you are acting just like gatlin. Are you two related? Seem to have the same dna.

I'm surprised Gatlin hasn't turned up again. Maybe he's off slumming at TOS. He threw a tantrum and stormed out because Stone wouldn't believe something he said.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   11:24:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#32. To: TooConservative (#17) (Edited)

LOL. You really do want to go down with the ship. In this case, Trump's yacht.

That's the thing, I won't sink with anyone. Even if Trump crashes and burns, another candidate will replace him. Since there isn't any viable "perfect" candidate, any of the others (including the RINO's) will be a vast improvement over commie Bernie or socialist Shitlary. If I sink, YOU SINK.

In the end, even that RINO that beats trump out will have to deal with the shit pot Trump stirred up... like now the (R) party knows how important a WALL IS to its voting base.

I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح

GrandIsland  posted on  2015-08-12   11:26:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#33. To: TooConservative (#31) (Edited)

I'm surprised Gatlin hasn't turned up again. Maybe he's off slumming at TOS. He threw a tantrum and stormed out because Stone wouldn't believe something he said.

Gatlin is voluntarily MIA... he made the decision on principle. His own principle. Though I disagree with his way of handling the incident that caused him to stop posting, it is and was his decision to make.

I hope he returns and realizes not everyone in an on line forum will believe him, be civil with him or agree with him. It is what it is... and that's why we're here.

I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح

GrandIsland  posted on  2015-08-12   11:32:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#34. To: TooConservative, Stoner, A K A Stone, buckeroo, Vicomte13, A Pole (#7) (Edited)

TC, your attitude about Trump is starting to remind me of Gatlin's towards Ron Paul.

Not fair to say that about TC. I was pretty much against Trump at first also and will turn on him if he goes sour.

What is with this hero worship of candidates in the conservatives ranks. I don't get it. Treat candidates like you would a player on a fantasy baseball team. The candidates are not your virtual reality avatars.

Did Trump win the debates? Here is where I can't judge because I am a politics nerd and by my personal standards Trump lost - he seemed like the kid who did not read his assignment and was winging his report in front of the class by clowning around.

But I am not Joe Q Public and they loved his style.

We are in the modern era where personality trumps (pun intended or not) all.

Very few people - even those who are self described conservatives or liberals - have any idea what policies are what. They have no idea what the policies mean when the politican says it (remember Gore and his lock box - what the fuck that was no one knows). The general public has a vague idea what a policy may mean - maybe, but they get personality. They like combative and assertive personality types. They like to be made to laugh. How to stop immigration? Fuck do they know but a "wall" sounds logical. I mean a wall keeps the neighbor's dog out so it must work. That is as deep a thinker as Joe Q Public gets. If you try and talk about employment IDs, fines and legal formulas to deal with illegals Joe Q Public's eyes will roll into their skulls - especially after a hard days work and a couple of beers in them.

So Trump is basically running sayin, listen, do I have specific plans? No. But I am a doer and my billions in business prove it and that is enogh for Joe Q Public. Maybe this is the end of the ideologue candidate who has to pass a litmus test from special interest groups. Those people were becoming like the fucking Gestapo for an ideology that actually has no history of working in the real world.

Pericles  posted on  2015-08-12   11:48:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#35. To: TooConservative (#19)

Trump will never get key party leaders to support him.

You've just figured that out? You do know that's not breaking news don't you? The corruption of the ruling class patrician establishment GOPe is old news.

Ever since Angelo Codevilla wrote "America’s Ruling Class — And the Perils of Revolution" I've been waiting for someone to capitalize on the power vacuum he identified. I had figured it would probably be Trump; but I figured he would do a repeat of Ross Perot and run as an independent from the beginning. His strategy has been better than I could have hoped, he must have an intuitive sense about this sort of thing.

Running for the GOP nomination first to expose how the nomination process is rigged in favor of the plutocracy was an even better idea. Lots of fresh wounds come November 2016, so average Joe GOP voter can see just how bad the GOPe is. The more he can do to destroy the GOP the better his chances next November.

There is nothing sacred about the GOP. It came to power upon the grave of another party that had lost its way, pimped out to a plutocracy in the 1850's and stabbing its voters in the back. There was nothing sacred about the Whig party. The GOPe has become what those who met in Ripon were against. It should die. The important thing to preserve is America. Threats to America are what should die, and a GOPe that emulates Judas should go into the ash-bin of history. Codevilla's "country class" needs a political party, the ruling class still has the democrat party.

Of course in the long run the ruling class is a threat to America. An aristocratic oligarchy is an anathema to the founding ideals of this nation. The ruling class has been waging war against the country class, they will need to reap what they've sown.

nativist nationalist  posted on  2015-08-12   12:34:58 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#36. To: GrandIsland (#33)

Yeah, you are acting just like gatlin. Are you two related? Seem to have the same dna.

I thought pinging him would remind him he isn't forgotten here.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   12:35:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#37. To: nativist nationalist (#35)

Of course in the long run the ruling class is a threat to America. An aristocratic oligarchy is an anathema to the founding ideals of this nation. The ruling class has been waging war against the country class, they will need to reap what they've sown.

You realize that they see it differently. They own the country, they just let us live in it.

Deep down, that is the consensus view of the elite in both parties. The Dems have a better plantation system, having much longer experience with managing slaves.

On the GOP plantation, the slaves get a little uppity from time to time.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   12:40:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#38. To: Pericles, A K A Stone, Vicomte13 (#34)

" What is with this hero worship of candidates in the conservatives ranks. I don't get it. "

I don't know. You tell me.

Also, turn that around, what is with the intense hatred that TC exudes for someone (Trump) so opposed to the GOPe?

My only like for Trump at this point is:

1. The GOPe hates & fears him

2. He is not controlled by GOPe

3. I think he will do a much better job on all of these assine trade deals that the establishment has saddled us with, and therefore exported all of our industry & jobs

4. I like his attitude about all of the massive unlimited immigration

5. I like his attitude about controlling the border

6. I like his attitude that our involvement in foreign deals should be more in our favor

I see little to none of that with the other clowns.

I take the position that anyone that has so much hatred for Trump is because they are a cheer leader for the establishment. That much support for the establishment is what gave us Romney, McStain, McConnell, cry baby boner, et al.

That is also what gave us all the cave ins to the liberal democrats and Ovomit, and that attitude also furthers the march to the NWO.

It basically is a choice between America / The US Constitution, and the statist establishment.

I am older, and eventually it will make no difference for me. However, I have children that will inherit this nation, so for them, I care.

Therefore, I do not know about you, but given a choice, I will choose America / the US Constitution.

I cannot speak for everyone, but I hero worship no one.

Our nation is in a struggle for survival, and I am opposed to any & all that are facilitating its destruction. That includes the GOPestablishment.

F the establishment!

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Stoner  posted on  2015-08-12   12:52:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#39. To: TooConservative (#14)

You know I'm getting the distinct impression that some people are getting upset that you aren't wearing a set of Trump kneepads.

“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...

CZ82  posted on  2015-08-12   13:30:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#40. To: Stoner (#38)

Our nation is in a struggle for survival, and I am opposed to any & all that are facilitating its destruction. That includes the GOPestablishment.

F the establishment!

Very good post, and excellent summary.

nativist nationalist  posted on  2015-08-12   13:31:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#41. To: GrandIsland (#32)

now the (R) party knows how important a WALL IS to its voting base.

They know. And if Trump is not the nominee, they will know that it's not important ENOUGH for them to change their position.

Truth is, they're not going to change their minds. The only way to get the change you want is to give Trump the victory and let him go in and start firing the party officials and replacing them with his own people. THEN the party will change.

They already know what the Border-bots want, and they've already decided that the desires of their crony capitalist alphas for cheap exploitable labor trump the desires of people. The Republicans may TALK a better game, but it will be just like abortion. They say what the rubes want to hear, dupe them into voting for them, and then never get it done - and blame Democrat obstruction.

And the rubes are rubes, and they'll keep falling for it.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-08-12   13:32:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#42. To: TooConservative (#37)

On the GOP plantation, the slaves get a little uppity from time to time.

And sometimes the peasants march on the castle with pitchforks. China is old, and many dynasties have forfeited the mandate of heaven over time. GOPe has done the same.

nativist nationalist  posted on  2015-08-12   13:33:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#43. To: CZ82, Fred Mertz, tomder55, GarySpFc, buckeroo (#39)

You know I'm getting the distinct impression that some people are getting upset that you aren't wearing a set of Trump kneepads.

Deep down, they know I'm right. But, like a teenage girl on a fling with some punk their mother disapproves of and their father would like to punch out, you can't talk them out of their summer crush.

It's the only logical explanation. Sorry I didn't give you some credit. Fred too, maybe Gary, I guess. And tomder as well.

You have to admit, LF has rarely had so many posts. So Trump is good for business at Fox News and at LibertysFlame.     : )

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   13:50:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#44. To: TooConservative (#43)

The sad part is that so many people are going to become entrenched in their support of him that when the onion is peeled ,they still won't smell the stench.

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

tomder55  posted on  2015-08-12   14:05:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#45. To: Vicomte13 (#41)

If I was Trump I would hire body guards lest "a crazy person acting alone" somehow takes a shot at him. He is freaking the party establishment and those people will not hesitate to kill to keep their positions.

Pericles  posted on  2015-08-12   14:21:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#46. To: TooConservative, A K A Stone, redleghunter (#16)

But there's no doubt in my mind that if the Republicans nominate anybody but Trump, Biden wins. And that's ok. Take out my Trump, and you still lose. I get at least half a loaf either way.

You openly admit what you've denied recently: that you favor a President Biden. As I said all along.

You really do have a reading comprehension problem.

Here, let me help you out. I'll write slowly, so you can understand.

(1) I am not a Republican.

(2) I am not a Democrat.

(3) I do not vote for babykillers. That means no Democrats, no Pataki, no Fiorina, and no Jeb - he killed Terri Schiavo.

If the Republicans want my vote, they have to become pro-life and use their power to strike Roe. And they have to stop espousing foolish and evil economics, they have to stop being imperialists and Israel firsters.

If the Democrats want my vote, they have to become pro-life and stop exulting in sexual immorality, and they have to stop being imperialists and Israel firsters.

In the absence of that I will only consider voting for Republicans whom I believe to really BE pro-life, as opposed to one more con in the Republican game.

So I WOULD vote for Huckabee or Santorum. And I MIGHT vote for Paul, Carson or Walker, if they actually persuaded me they really ARE pro-life and not just the typical Republican cons.

The Republican nominee will be Jeb or Walker.

With Jeb, I get a killer who is a crony capitalist, who believes in all of the stupid Republican economics and imperialism, versus a Hillary, who is a killer and evil in her own way, or Biden, who is wrong about abortion and generally right about economics.

I will not vote for either Jeb or Biden, but I would prefer Biden to win that, because then I'm going to at least get Democrat economics, which are more sensible.

If it's Walker versus Biden, it depends on whether or not I'm convinced Walker is sincerely pro-life and will apply a pro-life litmus test to Supreme Court nominations. If he won't, I won't vote for him, and I will prefer to see Biden win. If he convinces me that he will, I will grit my teeth and put up with the Republican economics in order to get Roe struck down.

It's that simple.

I won't vote for him because he's a babykiller, but I prefer Biden over a babykiller Republican, because with Biden I get better economics.

I will grit my teeth and put up with Republican economic stupidity and militarism and Israel-first crap and open Borders if I think that the Republican will actually pack the Supreme Court with justices who will strike down Roe v. Wade.

Democrats are better at economics than Republicans.

So, when things are equal and I've babykillers on both side, I want the Democrat to win.

What I really WANT is for the Republican to not be a babykillers. But the Republican Party is pro-choice, and they always put babykillers at the top. I know them by their fruit. Their words to the contrary are lies.

There.

I don't think I could possibly be clearer.

If somebody is looking for a loyalty oath to the Republican party, they should refer to point (1): I am not a Republican. If someone wants to insist I am a Democrat, I refer to point (2) I am not a Democrat, and I do not vote for babykillers.

If you don't like reading me say the same things several ways, over and over, then just take what I've said at face value.

It's no "gotcha!" to say to an Independent that he prefers a specific Democrat over a specific Republican. I am not a Republican and I have no loyalty to your party. Your party offers no good policies at all, except for pro-life WHEN IT'S SINCERE. Otherwise, the Republican platform is a joke: dumb economics, suicidal foreign policy, Israel first, open borders, crony capitalism - what's not to hate? You're a clown car of stupid ideas. But you say you'll protect babies' lives - and that trumps - but only if you DO IT.

Trump is talking different from you. He talks about Border control, and does so credibly. Your party gave us amnesty once and kept that conveyor belt running.

Trump recognizes the need for universal health insurance. He doesn't propose single payer (though he correctly acknowledges that it is good), but speaks of a common market in the US - stripping the states of their "right" to make a mess of the market and chop it up, and imposing a federal market. That's smart.

And he talks about crony capitalism, about how it has benefited him, and how it ought to start. That's honest.

And he seems to have had a change of heart about abortion. I am willing to take a chance on his sincerity, in part because the Republicans are so crazed to drive him out. Anything that makes Republican partisans (other than single-issue pro-life Christians) unhappy makes me smile.

You're looking for me to favor your clown car of a party. I spit on the Republican party. I think Republicans are dimwitted on key matters like war, foreign policy and economic.

But the Democrats come drenched in baby blood with a heapin' helpin' o' homosexuality, and they disgust me.

Having nowhere to go, I pick and choose by candidate. Presented with a babykiller on both sides, I won't VOTE for the babykiller, but I prefer Democratic economics, because they are realistic.

They're not RIGHT either, but they're BETTER than the Republican nonsense.

I owe your party no loyalty. They've lied to me for years. They have my contempt. If they run the right man, they might get my vote anyway. If they run Trump, they will win the White House and have the change to transform themselves into something I could support again.

None of the rest of the Republican candidates can or will do that, and none of them has a hope in hell of beating the Democrats either. For your VICTORY, it's Trump, or it's nothing.

For my VOTE, Walker has to convince me he'll pack the Supreme Court with pro-life justices and apply a litmus test.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-08-12   14:23:42 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#47. To: Pericles (#45)

If I was Trump I would hire body guards lest "a crazy person acting alone" somehow takes a shot at him. He is freaking the party establishment and those people will not hesitate to kill to keep their positions.

I'd ease the Veep into a cush job and name Sarah Palin as his replacement. That's the best insurance policy of all.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-08-12   14:24:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#48. To: Stoner, A K A Stone, Vicomte13 (#38)

What is with this hero worship of candidates in the conservatives ranks. I don't get it. " I don't know. You tell me.

Also, turn that around, what is with the intense hatred that TC exudes for someone (Trump) so opposed to the GOPe?

I was (and kind of am) openly critical of Trump before I supported him and did so because his style of speaking tore up the process. I thoght he was running to get ratings for his series and would bow out.

And I wish he did sound more presidential - I really am a fan well spoken words. Modern politicians of both parties don't sound half as eloquent as barely literate Civil War privates in their letters home.

You can support Trump but be critical of him. I am hoping he becomes more polished in his speeches - there is no reason to send out tweets like he does that remind me of 12 year old girls fighting via twitter.

Pericles  posted on  2015-08-12   14:26:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#49. To: Vicomte13 (#46)

Here, let me help you out. I'll write slowly, so you can understand.

TL;DR

I already understand.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   14:27:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#50. To: TooConservative (#43)

Deep down, they know I'm right. But, like a teenage girl on a fling with some punk their mother disapproves of and their father would like to punch out, you can't talk them out of their summer crush.

Deep down I know you are right that Republican crapweasels are going to make sure that Trump doesn't get the nomination, that you're going to foist off Jeb Bush as your candidate, and that the Democrat is going to spank him.

I'd prefer that Democrat be Biden.

So, deep down I know that the next President will be a Democrat, and I've already made peace with that.

I'll support Trump to the end, because he's the only one you've got who can give you the win, and who will change things as he does.

You're rather lose than change, so you'll lose, and you'll deserve it.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-08-12   14:28:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#51. To: Vicomte13, TooConservative (#50)

Biden is a war monger every bit as bloody as McCain and a war criminal for his Kosovo and Serbia war support. The death of his son is probably God's punishment on him. At least I hope it is.

Pericles  posted on  2015-08-12   14:40:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#52. To: TooConservative (#0)

Yes, Trump Lost the Debate

If so, then America lost the debate.

rlk  posted on  2015-08-12   14:41:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#53. To: Vicomte13 (#50)

that you're going to foist off Jeb Bush as your candidate

I live in a deep Red state. I don't have to vote for Bush but there is no chance my state flips Dem in anything less than a 45-state Dem landslide. So I have the luxury of voting as I please, knowing where the EC votes will end up.

As with criminal law stories we read with surprises depending on the state the crime was in, a lot of voters are in hopelessly Blue or hopelessly Red states. So the ultimate disposition of their vote via the EC is known for years, if not decades, in advance. The states that are like this probably are more than 20 states so it isn't very unusual.

Look at your own state. How much difference will it make for the EC vote of your state in 2016, no matter what you do, how much you give, how many you try to convert to or from a given candidate. There are a lot of gimme votes out there for both parties to scoop up easily.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-08-12   14:41:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  



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