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Title: Malaysia confirms plane debris is from Flight MH370
Source: Yahoo News
URL Source: [None]
Published: Aug 5, 2015
Author: By Al-Zaquan Amer Hamzah
Post Date: 2015-08-05 15:12:52 by GrandIsland
Keywords: None
Views: 782
Comments: 13

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak confirmed on early on Thursday that a Boeing 777 wing segment discovered in the Indian Ocean island of Reunion is from the missing Flight MH370, the first real breakthrough in the search for the plane that disappeared 17 months ago.

"The international team of experts have conclusively confirmed that the aircraft debris found on Reunion Island is indeed from MH370," Najib said in a televised statement.

Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 disappeared in March last year enroute from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 passengers and crew on board.


Poster Comment:

And just how many conspiracy nuts feel a bit stupid?

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 13.

#2. To: GrandIsland (#0)

And just how many conspiracy nuts feel a bit stupid?

I recall back then I said what happened, and that they would find the plane off of Reunion Island.

This time, at least, people who know me recall me saying just exactly that.

Because the wreckage was found off of Reunion Island like I said, it means that what happened to that plane is almost certainly what I said then.

It was not terrorism.

They had a fire.

When you're a pilot, you don't know what kind of fire, and you have to get it out FAST. If it's a fuel fire, you could blow up any second. BOOM.

The first thing you do in any emergency is turn immediately towards the closest airport that has a runway long enough for you to land. Experienced pilots always know where that is. And this pilot did that. This put the airplane on a certain heading towards that airport.

Then, you have GOT to get that fire out - so you climb for the heavens - less oxygen, smother it.

But it could also be an electrical fire. And that means that the co-pilot pulls the circuit breakers to cut off the electricity.

The airplane ballooned up in altitude, then came down sharply. Radar showed that. The second part was the pilot diving to blow out the fire, because the smoke was still pouring in. And he still didn't know it was an electrical fire.

It was an electrical fire, and pulling the circuit breakers did cause the fire to go out, eventually.

Unfortunately, the toxic coatings on the wires and other things burning did not stop burning until everybody, including the pilots, was overcome by fumes.

And why didn't they go on oxygen? Because if you have a fire, oxygen greatly accelerates the fire. BOOM.

So they fought to save the plane, and they did. But were overcome before they could save themselves.

And so now there was a jetliner, aimed at an airport, at full power. It flew on that bearing right over the airport. The pilot was good, his trim was effective.

At full power, the plane flew fast straight ahead, but as it got lighter, it climbed in altitude.

With power off, there was no radio or transponder, and the electrical fire itself probably destroyed much that otherwise would work on an emergency power source.

And so the jetliner flew on into the night, a Mary Celeste, with the trim set just so. It did not fly in a straight line, as its controls were jammed in a mechanical position.

It flew on and on and on, rising and falling with atmospheric pressure, under full power with lightening tanks. It moved laterally with air currents. It tracked generally South and East, until it ran out of fuel and crashed into the ocean.

The bearing of that plane was towards the nearest airport, and beyond that airport there was nothing until Reunion island.

Which is where I said they would find the wreckage.

And they have.

That's how it got there, and that's why there was no radio call, and also why the plane wasn't anywhere near any of those other places.

It's why the plane climbed and dove.

It's why it turned towards that airport and then flew over it.

That's what happened.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-08-05   15:26:51 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Vicomte13 (#2)

An interesting take. It has a lot of merit. One thing though is without power and without autopilot (if there's no power) the odds of it flying straight enough to not even have the slightest change of compass direction over the course of several hours seems minute. Can you explain that better?

Pinguinite  posted on  2015-08-05   18:57:18 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: Pinguinite (#5)

Power was out, so there was no autopilot.

Rather, the pilot mechanically trimmed for straight and level flight at full power. This did not maintain the heading. The plane certainly drifted around with the air mass. And at full power, as the fuel burned off the plane climbed in altitude. There was no autopilot or electronics maintaining a heading. There was simply the mechanical trim maintaining a relative attitude to the air mass.

This meant that the plane did not fly down into the water. Initially it maintained level flight, but it climbed as the fuel load reduced. It moved with the air mass, with temperature changes. It probably curved in a long arc.

It crashed into the ocean somewhere around La Reunion - and sea currents carried the debris to the island. It wasn't flying FOR Reunion, that was just the general direction the plane was pointing. The mechanical trim essentially jammed the flight controls in a physical position relative to the air that kept the plane level at first, and not pitched downward. It didn't fly into the water. Rather, it actually meandered along and flew higher and higher, then ran out of fuel and fell into the water.

It did change compass direction, no doubt.

The initial compass direction was directly towards a close airfield, but it flew right over the top of that - the aircrew were already unconscious.

It was not flying FOR La Reunion, it was just generally flying "Southeast", and gradually climbing, until the fuel ran out. The only thing out there in the Indian Ocean "Southeast" of where the plane came from is La Reunion. Sea currents being what they are, anything that fell into the water in that broad general vicinity had a chance to wash up on Reunion's shores, because it's the only thing out there to fetch up on.

So there wasn't any precision. It was just mechanically trimmed to fly straight and level - relative to the air at the time the pilot trimmed it.

That meant the flight controls kept it from flying into the water under power, and the plane did veer and move around with the air mass. It's trajectory was some sort of meaningless arc, not a purposeful flight path. Trimmed with an attitude towards the air that kept it from descending, if the plane had unlimited fuel it would probably have described a huge quasi-circle around the the whole hemisphere, slowly spiraling in circles in the airmass as the world moved below it.

Instead, at full power, it flew more or less straight, in the general southeast direction, fast, until it ran out of gas and plunged into the sea.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-08-05   19:33:43 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: Vicomte13 (#6)

All the trim does, as you know, is reduce the amount of physical input effort on the controls required to maintain a certain attitude of flight, whether it's a climb or turn. Trim is not auto-pilot though. It's virtually impossible to set trim so that *zero* input is required in manual flight for it to fly without doing a full circle in more than, well, an hour anyway. You do say it would have spiralled over some long amount of time.

But... maybe. I don't know 777's. Maybe they are designed well.

As for the island, over a year and a half, aircraft parts could have floated over the entire Indian Ocean, and possibly the Pacific also for that matter, before arriving there. But who knows how long this part was sitting there.

The satellite ping data puts the current search area in the crosshairs. But perhaps there were other factors in play throwing that experimental data analysis off.

One important question is whether the plane most likely crashed or was ditched into the ocean, the former of which would have resulted in much more debris. The piece they found might give evidence of one or the other.

Pinguinite  posted on  2015-08-05   20:00:46 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Pinguinite (#7)

A well-trimmed plane at high speed can fly relatively straight for a long time. Professional pilots trim the planes pretty well.

Also, we don't know the arc.

In any case, apparently the trim, or whatever fixed control settings they had on that plane, did a good enough job for the plane to fly Mary Celeste that far, then crash.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-08-05   23:44:18 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: Vicomte13 (#9)

In any case, apparently the trim, or whatever fixed control settings they had on that plane, did a good enough job for the plane to fly Mary Celeste that far

We don't know if the plane flew uncontrolled, on auto-pilot, or with manual control. That is one of the many unknowns about the flight.

Pinguinite  posted on  2015-08-06   1:00:08 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: Pinguinite (#10)

We don't know if the plane flew uncontrolled, on auto-pilot, or with manual control. That is one of the many unknowns about the flight.

Where they've found the debris would indicate that it flew on that approximate final bearing (to the original airfield), and then out until it ran out of fuel.

And that pretty much means that the plan was Mary Celeste.

If the pilots were suicidal, they'd have crashed it earlier, not gone for hours and hours meaninglessly over the ocean contemplating their own doom, without anybody on the plane turning on a cell phone, sending anything.

So direct manual control would seem to be logically ruled out. Uncontrolled, but with sufficient final trim to keep it from descending into the water and keep it heading in a general direction, or some sort of mechanical autopilot, could do it.

With the trim, as long as it were trimmed to straight and level, so that it did not DESCEND, it would climb over time as it became lighter, or it might climb because of trim issues, but a plan will only climb so high, before the air becomes too thin to maintain full power and continue to climb. You can't fly a plane into space, because you'll reach the point where it just won't climb anymore - air's too thin to give you the lift.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-08-06   10:30:28 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: Vicomte13 (#11)

And that pretty much means that the plan was Mary Celeste.

What's Mary Celeste?

If the pilots were suicidal, they'd have crashed it earlier, not gone for hours and hours meaninglessly over the ocean contemplating their own doom, without anybody on the plane turning on a cell phone, sending anything.

Cell phones would be useless in a plane over the ocean (maybe even at altitude). And a scenario of all passengers dead or incapacitated with one or two pilots conscious can't be ruled out.

If someone is suicidal, their thought processes can't be predicted. Someone may be willing to create circumstances for death *later*, letting it come when it's beyond their personal control to avoid, but not have the courage to proactively do it *now*.

Since the apparent suicidal crash of the Spain - Germany flight a few months ago, in my view the prospects of a suicidal flight by one of the pilot's seems to be more plausible. I thought before that the odds of both pilots being up to the task is unlikely (still do) but it doesn't require both pilots be up to it. Only one, who seizes a moment when the other steps out of the cockpit for even a few seconds. The cockpit doors, meant to make flights safer, instead proved a very convenient and critical tool for a single suicidal individual.

Until it's found and forensics are done, we can't be certain of very much. Your theoretical scenario is plausible and fits a lot of the symptoms. I think it will be found and we'll have the answers then.

Pinguinite  posted on  2015-08-06   11:56:27 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: Pinguinite (#12)

The Mary Celeste was a cargo brig of the 1800s that was found sailing along, meal on the table ready to eat, with no crew.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-08-06   13:18:01 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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