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Title: IMF stuns Europe with call for massive Greek debt relief
Source: UK Telegraph
URL Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ ... massive-Greek-debt-relief.html
Published: Jul 14, 2015
Author: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Post Date: 2015-07-14 19:18:54 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 1561
Comments: 32

The International Monetary Fund has set off a political earthquake in Europe, warning that Greece may need a full moratorium on debt payments for 30 years and perhaps even long-term subsidies to claw its way out of depression.

"The dramatic deterioration in debt sustainability points to the need for debt relief on a scale that would need to go well beyond what has been under consideration to date,” said the IMF in a confidential report.

Greek public debt will spiral to 200pc of GDP over the next two years, compared to 177pc in an earlier report on debt sustainability issued just two weeks ago.

The findings are explosive. The document amounts to a warning that the IMF will not take part in any EMU-led rescue package for Greece unless Germany and the EMU creditor powers finally agree to sweeping debt relief.

This vastly complicates the rescue deal agreed by eurozone leaders in marathon talks over the weekend since Germany insists that the bail-out cannot go ahead unless the IMF is involved.

The creditors were aware of the IMF’s report as early as Sunday, yet choose to sweep it under rug. Extracts were leaked to Reuters on Tuesday, forcing the matter into the open.

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde

The EMU summit statement vaguely mentions “possible longer grace and payment periods”, but only at later date, and only if Greece is deemed to have complied with all the demands. Germany has ruled out a debt “haircut” altogether, claiming that it would violate Article 125 of the Lisbon Treaty.

The IMF said there is no conceivable chance that Greece will be able to tap private capital markets in the foreseeable future, leaving the country entirely dependent on rescue funding.

It claimed that capital controls and the shutdown of the Greek banking system had entirely changed the picture for debt dynamics, an implicit criticism of both the Greek government and the eurozone authorities for letting the political dispute get out of hand.

The decision by the European Central Bank to force the closure of the Greek banks two weeks ago by freezing emergency liquidity assistance (ELA), appears to have cost European taxpayers very large sums of money..

The IMF said the Europeans will either have to offer a “deep upfront haircut” or slash the debt burden by stretching maturities and presumably by lowering interest costs.

“There would have to be a very dramatic extension with grace periods of, say, 30 years on the entire stock of European debt,” it said.

Debt forgiveness alone would not be enough. There would also have to be “new assistance”, and perhaps “explicit annual transfers to the Greek budget”.

This is the worst nightmare of the northern creditor states. The term "Transfer Union" has been dirty in the German political debate ever since the debt crisis erupted in 2010.

The underlying message of the report is that Greece is in such deep trouble that it cannot withstand further austerity cuts. This is hard to square with the latest demands by EMU creditors for pension cuts, tax rises, and fiscal tighting equal to 2pc of GDP by next year.

Nobel economist Paul Krugman said the cuts are macro-economic "madness" in these circumstances.

Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, told the New Statesman that whenever he tried to discuss the economic rationale for the policies enforced upon Greece, he was met with blank stares. "It is as if you haven’t spoken. You might as well have sung the Swedish national anthem – you’d have got the same reply.”

Unless there is a change of course, Greece's debt ratio will still be 170pc of GDP by the time the current framework expires in 2022. Even this assumes that there is no global downturn, and that everything goes to plan. The figure is up from 142pc two weeks ago.

The IMF’s report raises as many questions as it answers. Almost no economist would accept that two weeks of capital controls could alone raise the debt ratio by 28 percentage points of GDP a full seven years later.

The backdrop to this sudden shift in position is almost certainly political. It follows an intense push for debt relief over recent days by the US Treasury, the dominant voice on the IMF Board in Washington.

The IMF’s report issued in early July was savaged by one bail-out veteran. Ashoka Mody, the former chief of Ireland’s IMF rescue, said the original findings were “fictitious” and failed to recognize the full gravity of the debt-deflation crisis in Greece.

It appears that powerful voices in global capitals and on the IMF board have since demanded that the Fund go back to the drawing board.

Its conclusions validate what Greece’s Syriza government has been saying all along. The debt cannot be repaid. Any formula that fails to recognize this merely stores up an even bigger crisis down the road. `

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 15.

#3. To: Pericles (#0)

Its conclusions validate what Greece’s Syriza government has been saying all along. The debt cannot be repaid. Any formula that fails to recognize this merely stores up an even bigger crisis down the road. `

Well there you go, asswipe, you now have a solid reason for your philosophy that justifies Greece having a good reason not to repay its debt and to even be given more of OPM that it will not be able to repay. This must warm the cockles of your huge, compassionate progressive heart. After all it's only just.

SOSO  posted on  2015-07-14   21:35:22 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: SOSO (#3)

Its conclusions validate what Greece’s Syriza government has been saying all along. The debt cannot be repaid. Any formula that fails to recognize this merely stores up an even bigger crisis down the road. `

Well there you go, asswipe, you now have a solid reason for your philosophy that justifies Greece having a good reason not to repay its debt and to even be given more of OPM that it will not be able to repay.

This must warm the cockles of your huge, compassionate progressive heart. After all it's only just.

Jesus Christ, our Lord and Saviour, already told us the usury of debt is a grave sin.

Pericles  posted on  2015-07-15   1:11:46 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: Pericles (#5)

Jesus Christ, our Lord and Saviour, already told us the usury of debt is a grave sin.

Again you are amazingly wrong.

First, the Bible says nothing about usury which is defined as:

u·su·ry - noun

the illegal action or practice of lending money at unreasonably high rates of interest.

Second, the Bible only states that you may not collect interest on loans that you make to the POOR. It says nothing about lending to a country and it says nothing about not collecting the principal of the loan made to the poor or any other entity.

SOSO  posted on  2015-07-15   2:05:51 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: SOSO, Pericles (#7) (Edited)

God forbade Hebrews to lend at interest to Hebrews.

God forbade Hebrews to enslave Hebrews for debt.

God demanded the release of debts of Hebrews by Hebrews in the sixth year.

God required Hebrews of means to lend to Hebrews who asked of them.

God permitted the charging of interest on loans by Hebrews only when made to non-Hebrews. (Of course, if a Hebrew had money to lend at interest, he would have to lend it without interest to a needy Hebrew who asked instead.

God made it clear that all money and property was his, and that the possessor was merely God's steward. So, when God made these commandments, God was the owner of the money issuing directives to men who are never more than mere stewards of God's money. When men disregard God's directives regarding money, men steal from God.

Jesus said that not a letter of the law shall pass until the end of the world.

Jesus modified the kosher food laws, and the Apostles modified the law of circumcision, but Jesus never amended the debt law.

In fact, Jesus said to lend without expectation of being repaid, and to not store up wealth.

There is nowhere to hide.

All Greek debt - all Christian debt period - older than 6 years should be forgiven. No interest should be charged on Greek debt (or any other Christian debt). As the years roll forward, each 7th year behind's debt should be retired.

In this way should Greece - and everybody else - be relieved of this burden.

Nothing would be more stimulative of economic growth and security than to clear away old debt by forgiveness, exactly as God ordained.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-07-15   12:42:26 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: Vicomte13 (#12)

All Greek debt - all Christian debt period - older than 6 years should be forgiven.

The bailout debt keeps rolling over well within your stated 6 year period.

In fact, Jesus said to lend without expectation of being repaid, and to not store up wealth.

That is not lending but charity.

SOSO  posted on  2015-07-15   12:46:58 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: SOSO, Pericles (#13)

The bailout debt keeps rolling over well within your stated 6 year period.

God will not be mocked.

It is not a six year PERIOD. In the seventh calendar year, all debts are cancelled. There is no "rolling six year window".

The Jubilee and Sabbatical years are fixed years. They hit, and all debt is wiped out. There is no "contracting around it" to evade the will of God.

God's will is to completely wipe out human money obligations every six years, to give a full restart, and to even return the farmland itself (in Israel) once a generation.

The POINT of it all is what God said: Obey these commandments and you will have no poverty and no sickness.

There is no clever device to allow the steward to keep churning debt.

God intended for debt to be forgiven.

God also forbade piling up money stores. Those money stores are to be mobilized, lent to the faithful, with their debts wiped out.

The POINT is for every faithful person to be FREE of debt, and not have to ever INCUR debt in order to have shelter and food, to live.

That is the point, and always was.

The money all belongs to God. All of it. God forbade lending at interest. Categorically forbade it. It is a sin to charge interest to the faithful, and a sin to deny them loans.

It's God's money, and God does not intend for some stewards to be able to pile up money while others of the faithful do not have housing or food or medicine.

God's intent is a full wealth redistribution among the faithful until there is no poverty - HE SAID THAT.

God's intent ALSO is to make being part of the faithful immensely more advantageous than being outside of the faith. The faithful - starting with ancient Israel - were meant to be the ENVY of their neighbors BECAUSE each faithful has a house, food, clothes, medicine, care, family - and God. This is intended to be a manifestation of God's glory.

When stewards alter the word of God to permit themselves to deny loans to the faithful, or to charge interest, or to pretend that the money is THEIRS, not God's, they steal God's money and they alter God's word, and the bring disaster upon themselves and all the rest of us.

Christians should be looking to help each other. Christians should be looking to their own lives, shedding excesses and sins, living modestly, and supporting other Christians, with interest-free loans so that other Christians are not pouring out their wages to usurers. And then, once the other Christian is free, he and the first Christian, together, should be turning to free a third, a fourth, a fifth.

Christians are supposed to trust that God will provide, and not pretend that they will find security by committing a series of sins: (1) Piling money aside, to be (2) Lent at interest, so that (3) The Christian can live at security off of sin, and (4) Build businesses based upon this principle.

All of that is sin, and it leads to the disaster that destroyed the East before Islam, the West before nationalism, and America before slavery, genocide and infanticide.

The same perverse nature of man asserts itself again and again. The only antidote is God, and God must be taken straight, exactly as he said. And not in the cess of lies and alterations that idolators of money, power and other organizations such as the nation state make of God.

If you are a Christian, examine yourself!

Are you an alcoholic, a smoker, a drug addict? Stop. Do what you need to do to stop. The cost of these things is high, and you destroy the Temple of God that is your body, and you open the door to demons (through drugs and excess alcohol).

Are you obese? Become continent. Eat more sparingly, and righteously. Fast and pray. Do not be overly fond of flesh. The antediluvians lived 900 years on fruit, vegetable, dairy and bread. God does not constrain you to that, but if you are pouring excess resources into your body, the result of your profligacy is visible upon your frame. So stop it and eat right. This will save money, as will ceasing with the drugs, smokes and excess liquor. We do this not for Judas' sake, to fatten the purse, but to preserve the Temple and live in the health God has willed us, and to master the flesh, and to abuse the animals less also. The fatter purse is merely a result.

And that fattened purse, use to free yourself of debt. God gave each Israelite a farm for free, without taxes, and without the fear of eminent domain. Thus, he always had housing security and food security, as long as he worked.

And he commanded children to honor their parents, thereby giving men and women security in their old age: the land remained, and could be worked by the young.

We live more as those Israelites of the cities, whose houses COULD be alienated. We do not have the farm. Our pagan system is not set up for that (though we can dream of one day going to the system).

Objectively, we are not -most of us - in the status of the free farmer of Israel. We are, rather, indentured servants of harsh masters. Until we own our houses free of debt and are clear of other debt, we are not free. We are indentured. Indentured men were not owners. The tithe was upon the fruits of the owners. The servant had only his skin, his clothes and his personalty, and there was no tithe on those.

God permits us no license to excess when we are servants. We should be earnestly seeking our freedom through work, to pay all debt and to not incur new debt.

To the Christian, this means either owning our property free of mortgage, or renting it. We must not use this as an excuse, if we are free of debt, to vastly extend our appetites so that we devour all that we earn in greater luxuries, for this is God's money, not ours.

We need not live in a cess of crime or dirt, but there is no place for any Christian to ever live in a palace, unless he be a King, and even then the palace is for reasons of state, not personal luxury.

No Christian should be building himself a mansion unless he fills the rooms of that mansion with people under his care.

Once the Christian is free, he has further obligation. A Christian's child is never "emancipated", in the sense that there never comes a time when a Christian's child is not the responsibility of his parents, just as there never comes a time when an adult Christian child is not responsible FOR his parents.

Housing and freedom from debt - what the Christian must acquire for himself, the Christian must also provide to his Christian children, to maintain their freedom. And the Christian child owes his parent the parallel debt of assistance in old age and difficulty.

Christian parents and children having been provided for, up and down the line, excess then must be turned to provide freedom and security also to brothers and sisters.

Recall well that in Christ we are begotten anew, in water and Spirit, and obtain a new Father, The Father, who is our God. Each of us who is a child of God is a brother and sister to one another by the Spirit, through God, our common Father. Jesus is our elder brother. He has shown us the way.

Natural brothers and sisters by the flesh who are not chidren of The Father are not our charge, but brothers and sisters in Christ are.

And THAT is where the free, upright, wealthy Christian's resources next belong.

Just as he freed first himself, then his children and parents, from need, through gifts and obligations, now next the Christian of means must turn to his brother in Christ, the head of another household with children, and he must seek to free him from his chains.

How?

In the way God described: lend without interest to your brother and sister in Christ. Thereby, set HIM free of the usurers and allow him to establish himself free, in adequate housing and condition. The debt term is six years, the interest is zero. The law requires a minimum interest, take it to fulfill the law, but give it back as a gift. In the event that disaster or defeat leaves the indebted brother unable to repay in full, all is forgiven in the 7th year.

In all likelihood, he will be free before that, and then he must do the same for his parents and children as you have.

And then, once he has established his line in proper order, he must join with you to turn to a third Christian brother, and a fourth, and a fifth, over time.

As Christian sets Christian free, the expanding circle of liberty is virtuous. The stress and uncertainty that cause such things as obesity and medical conditions will be automatically lessened among Christians. There will be no corporation acting as clearinghouse, which can abuse and steal and do what so many "charities" have done: pay their leaders luxuriously. The Christian may experience, in moderation, the good things of God's earth, but he may not rightly seek to live in luxury.

Healthy, happy and free, IN brotherhood and THROUGH brotherhood. THAT is what we are called to be. THAT is the economic structure of God's word.

If you hate the very idea, your heart and mind are far from Christ.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-07-15   13:41:14 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 15.

#16. To: Vicomte13 (#15)

It is not a six year PERIOD. In the seventh calendar year, all debts are cancelled. There is no "rolling six year window".

And there is no six year debte, only new debt that repaid the old and thensome.

SOSO  posted on  2015-07-15 13:43:24 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: Vicomte13 (#15)

The POINT is for every faithful person to be FREE of debt, and not have to ever INCUR debt in order to have shelter and food, to live.

Even in excess to what is reasonably required for shelter, food and to live? Are all persons of faith mandated by God to live on oceanfront property in a MacMansion and eat lobster and cavier at every meal and wear the most expensive clothing?

SOSO  posted on  2015-07-15 13:49:02 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: SOSO, Vicomte13, A Pole (#15)

Since SOSO is not schooled in the classics - I want to clarify a point Vic made when he wrote "he money all belongs to God. All of it. God forbade lending at interest. Categorically forbade it. It is a sin to charge interest to the faithful, and a sin to deny them loans."

I understand what he is saying but the way I was educated on the manner is that the the ban on usury (interest) on money is for the same reason God is against homosexual unions - money can not really multiply money. It is barren and can not reproduce. The abomination of desolation.

If I loan you a cow or money to buy a cow the result is a living creation it is hoped - a cow or bull being born. The return on my loan would come from the birth of the animal or say, the yield of the crops. Usury is getting more money from money. God put a fixed amount of precious metals on earth. How can man magically make more gold to pay off gold? etc. Interest is sort of a homosexual union in how the Bible views the sin.

I know this is all new to many because when was the last time you heard a conservative argue like this in the states?

Pericles  posted on  2015-07-15 14:08:03 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 15.

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