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Title: Scott Walker Wants To Cure His Party Of Its Weakness For Moderates (Announces Candidacy)
Source:
FiveThirtyEight
URL Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features ... of-its-weakness-for-moderates/
Published: Jul 13, 2015
Author: Harry Enten
Post Date: 2015-07-13 12:53:47 by Hondo68
Ping List: *2016 The Likely Suspects* Subscribe to *2016 The Likely Suspects*
Keywords: None
Views: 6995
Comments: 43
Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin has a realistic shot at becoming the most conservative Republican nominee for president in a generation. Walker, who used a campaign video and a tweet to announce Monday morning that he is an official candidate, has been leading in Iowa polls since late January and has been consistently in the top tier in national and New Hampshire surveys. At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve had him in the top tier, with about a 25 percent chance to win the nomination, since February. The question now is whether the Republican Party, which nominated unsuccessful moderate candidates in 2008 and 2012, will decide that 2016 is the year for a conservative. Walker’s relatively high polling numbers so far have been built on his standing with conservative voters. They have given him the lead in Iowa, which for him is probably a must-win state. The most recent Quinnipiac poll there, for instance, has his favorable rating at 77 percent among very conservative Republicans, compared with just a 3 percent unfavorable rating. No other candidate is doing as well among this subgroup. Walker has been so successful with the conservative base because of his actions as governor. He is best known for signing legislation in 2011 that limited the bargaining power of Wisconsin’s public-sector unions, which prompted a labor-led recall attempt in 2012. Walker won that vote and was re-elected in 2014. He also led the state’s rejection of Medicaid expansion under Obamacare — Wisconsin was the second-most-liberal state (based on presidential election results) to say no — and he helped pass a strict voter identification law and cut taxes. Walker has doubled down on that conservatism during his presidential bid. He is about to sign a ban on abortions after 20 weeks, called for a constitutional amendment to allow states to ban same-sex marriage after the Supreme Court’s ruling legalizing it, and has withdrawn his earlier support for comprehensive immigration reform. Both of Walker’s most plausible rivals for the Republican nomination (Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio) did not call for a constitutional amendment on same-sex marriage and are in favor of immigration reform. Voters seem to be noticing Walker’s conservative stances compared with the other candidates. Although our three-pronged ideological ratings — which look at congressional voting records (not applicable to Walker), donors and public statements — place Walker’s ideology near the middle of the pack, voters describe him as more conservative than most of the other Republicans. In an average of four YouGov surveys during June, in which 0 was the most liberal and 100 the most conservative, Walker was rated on average as a 70. Bush scored a 60, Rubio a 64. In fact, Walker’s score is 7 points more conservative than the average Republican candidate (63). To give you an idea of how big a difference that is, the difference between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders was only 2 points (25 vs. 23) during the same period. Walker’s score places him among candidates that most would generally regard as too bombastic or far-right to win the nomination, such as Ted Cruz, 2008 runner-up Mike Huckabee and 2012 runner-up Rick Santorum. Pat Buchanan, the last standing conservative alternative in 1996, scored a 73 in primary polls.1 Walker’s score clearly places him to the right of the Republican Party’s most recent nominees. The last three nominees without an incumbent Republican running were seen as relatively moderate in primary polls. On the same 0 to 100 scale that gave Buchanan a 73, George W. Bush scored an average 63 during the 2000 primary season, John McCain earned a 60 for 2008 and Mitt Romney took a 63 for 2012. (Bush’s score may seem to be at odds with his later record, but keep in mind that he was running as a compassionate reform conservative, just as his brother Jeb is doing now.) Evidence from past primaries indicates that parties nominate candidates seen as more moderate the longer they have been out of office, because they want to win. Walker would clearly be a step in the opposite direction, and anyone who knows Republican primary voters understands that they would walk over hot coals while listening to a singing album from Eddie Murphy before they would allow Clinton to become president. That doesn’t mean Walker couldn’t win the nomination, however. Bob Dole in 1996 and George H.W. Bush in 1988 each got a 67. Perhaps most importantly, Ronald Reagan was seen as very conservative in 1980 with a score of 76, and by the general election was considered the third-most-extreme non-incumbent nominee (barely behind George McGovern and Barry Goldwater) since World War II. Moreover, Republican voters have become more conservative in recent years.2 Putting the General Social Survey on our 0 to 100 scale,3 the average self-identified Republican has shifted from a 57 in 1974 to a 71 in 2014, the most conservative ever. In the June YouGov polls, the average self-identified Republican ideology was also a 71. In other words, the ideology of the average Republican voter now matches up nearly perfectly with the ideology voters have assigned to Walker. He isn’t too extreme for the party; the other candidates are more moderate than the average Republican voter. So why did the party nominate more moderate candidates in 2008 and especially 2012, even as the party has become more conservative? We can’t be sure, of course, but electability probably has a lot to do with it. The most successful conservative challengers who emerged in recent years were probably seen as unelectable by party actors and voters. Huckabee and Santorum have made numerous inflammatory comments and had either never won in a swing or blue state or gotten trounced the last time they ran in one. Meanwhile, other potential conservative alternatives (see Fred Thompson, Tim Pawlenty and even Rick Perry) who could have made a serious run for the nomination went nowhere because they flopped on the campaign trail. Walker could end up in this group, given that his campaign so far hasn’t been regarded as very strong, though it’s far too early to know whether he’ll ramp it up once he’s officially in the race. Walker doesn’t have the electability problem of a Buchanan, a Huckabee or a Santorum. Like Reagan, Walker was actually elected governor of a swing state4 more than once. Walker was re-elected in 2014 even as almost all the voters saw him as conservative or very conservative. On our 0-to-100 ideological scale, he scored a 75 among likely Wisconsin voters in the final October 2014 Marquette University Law School poll. That gives him a talking point that recent conservative challengers didn’t have. But the question remains whether Republican primary voters, weighing the chances in the general election, will balk at someone as conservative as Walker. Republican voters have plenty of other candidates to choose from who are more moderate and match up with the ideology of the last few nominees. Walker is clearly betting that the more conservative Republican Party of today will help him defy recent history. If he pulls it off, he’ll be the most conservative Republican to be nominated since Reagan in 1980. Poster Comment: Junk science. Their conservative detector is broken. Huckabee and Perry pass for conservatives? Anyhow, Walker is now officially a candidate. The more moderate (progressive) the candidate, the larger the margin of defeat. Check out the Mitt Romney election results for details. 
CANDIDATE AVERAGE IDEOLOGICAL SCORE (VOTER ASSIGNED) George Pataki 50 John Kasich 54 Chris Christie 55 Jeb Bush 60 Lindsey Graham 61 Carly Fiorina 62 Donald Trump 63 Rand Paul 63 Marco Rubio 64 Ben Carson 65 Bobby Jindal 67 Rick Perry 69 Scott Walker 70 Rick Santorum 70 Mike Huckabee 71 Ted Cruz 72 
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#2. To: TooConservative (#1)
Pat Buchanan should run again to give Trump some competition.
Im from Texas and im praying that Perry doesn't even get close. Im a Cruz/Walker/Paul guy. I would hold me nose for Trump just cause he pisses everyone off! LOL Im anti bush/christy/graham/McCrazy. I will vote Hillary before I vote for them!
I agree. Not to mention Jebb and Lady Lindsey having 60 percent approval ratings amount conservatives. I suspect the actual number is south of 6 percent. I have high hopes for Walker,but experience has taught me to wait and see how he "evolves" as the campaign heats up. Like Charlie Brown,I'm tired of having the damn football pulled away at the last minute. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
I will never again vote for or support any politician that has held office in Texas. The system there is just too damn corrupt. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
My only questions about Walker are in foreign policy positions . Other than that ,he is the best in the field.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Walker wants to cure us of moderates. But his wife and kids support fags pretending to be married. He can't even convince his own family. Karl Rove praises Walker. Rand Paul is such a wuss he has to stick his fingers in the air to decide what his position is of the day. Perry is a joke. He is for illegal immigration. Trump exposed him as a phoney on the border. Just like he exposed you as a phoney on the border. I mean only a open border schill would consider Perry. Back to Rand Paul. He is an absolute pussy on faggots pretending to be married. Then he is for legalizing drugs. Screw that asshole.
Think Bush and Karl Rove.
It is a conservative state. You support blue state money redistributors like Bernie Sanders and Mao.
I was seriously interested in your characterizations and intently reading....until I got to your summation on Rand. I broke up and started to laugh when I read "screw that asshole." You do have a way to make a "to the point" statement.
Rand Paul makes me mad. I do say screw him. But I also kind of like him sometimes too. But lately he has been pandering to much imo.
Think Bush and Karl Rove. Police state big government is a concern too. Has Walker ever proposed anything pro liberty? Yes, Bush, Rove, Hillary, Kerry, Obama, McCain... Both the Republican and Democrat wings are deeply committed to America-last. Israel, Saudi Arabia, China, and Mexico are the top priorities of the D&R party. They pay the best.
He is a typical politician, constantly flip flopping to say whatever fits to promote himself. I saw that in him from the very beginning. I do agree with a few of his points.
Are you ever in the least bit satisfied with anything, or anyone, at anytime in your life?
Of course, I'm delighted that McCain and Willie-Mitt Romney lost. Bummer that you helped Obama get elected by voting for those progressive losers, though.
It is a conservative state. Yeah,just like NYC is a conservative city and that's why you suppport Trump. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
Only a moron would think that everyone born in a certain state is unqualified. Your universal generalization statements show you to be lacking in the head.
Why are you concentrating on being satisfied by seeing losers....lose? You are really some kinda weirdo! Why not look for winners, promote them....and be satisfied with winners? Don't let everything in your life be so negative.
Who said anything about unqualified? Your universal generalization statements show you to be lacking in the head. Uh,huh. Tell me,closet-boy,putting aside for a moment the friendships he has with Hillary,Major and Mini-Mario,de Blasio,etc,etc,etc,how many friends in the NYC entertainment industry is your boy Trump friends with? Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
Maybe . All I know is that he is getting it done in a state where the progressive loons formerly ruled . Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Walker has doubled down on that conservatism during his presidential bid. He is about to sign a ban on abortions after 20 weeks, called for a constitutional amendment to allow states to ban same-sex marriage after the Supreme Court’s ruling legalizing it, and has withdrawn his earlier support for comprehensive immigration reform. Reasons you dislike him.
Wrong. You just pulled that out of your ass, yukon. I listed some of my concerns/questions in post #12. At the moment I'm merely skeptical. If you're typical of his supporters, I may move on to disliking him soon.
You're a liberal.
No, you're a retard.
You're the one supporting Bernie Sanders and other kooks and halfwits, not I.
lol ~ you don't sugarcoat anything. I like Rand and the only parts of his platform I don't care for are exactly the ones you pointed out. I do feel he'll reduce the size of government more than Trump and protect individual freedom and liberty more than any other... so he's still a better choice than that filthy twat, SHITlary. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
Hondo is a closet liberal. Here is proof. 1) He agrees with the Occupy ideals... he hates the rich and stays silent towards welfare. 2) He's pro drugs ... a (D) platform staple 3) He's anti cop and pro criminal... just like O'bunghole and MSM 4) He's a past republican hater... all of them. 5) He's afraid to state his presidential choice. 6) He's disruptive towards any conservative minded posters... rubs elbows with other agenda libtards. 7) LIVES, VOLUNTARILY, IN KOOKIFORNIA. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
More Sterno lies. Are you on Bath Salts too?
Your liberalness is more than a sickness, kook.
Are there any Kookifornia posters who aren't leftists?
What makes you so sure that hondo68 is a "liberal?"
The whole libtard state is filthy hippie left. If you surf Facebook, you will find the most leftist libtard kooks come from Kookifornia. Just check out the Hondo, Deckard and Bucky types that post the same filthy shit they do in "Being Liberal" Facebook page and Cop Block. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
You really do... ashamedly agree with yukon, dontcha?
Unlike you, Hondo and Deckard, where no poster knows where Hondo starts and the other two ends... I dont have an exact twin here. Hell, you three even post about the same events but from different YELLA publications. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
It is my pleasure to inform you of and about current events. I can't speak for others but I am confident they have similar considerations.
2) He's pro drugs ... a (D) platform staple 4) He's a past republican hater... all of them. 3) He's anti cop and pro criminal 6) He's disruptive towards any conservative minded posters... rubs elbows with other agenda libtards. I don't have a presidential choice so far, they're all globalist a$$holes. Waiting for an American to show up. I'm not pro-Drug, I'm pro-Liberty. It's easy to hate most D&R Party politicians, they suck. You're anti-Liberty, anti-American, anti-Human, and pro global-tyranny. What little you have in the way of a mind, is occupied by a progressive neocon libtard agenda.
You aren't pro Liberty unless that means YOU have more freedom than anyone around you. That kind of self importance is driven by liberal ideals. You never will have a presidential choice until David Graeber runs... then you'll deny on this forum. I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
You aren't fooling anyone yukon. Did the rehab take this time or are you still guzzling Sterno by the quart? In a Cop Culture, the Bill of Rights Doesn’t Amount to Much That's really rich coming from a retired NY cop. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
I've read your delusional, liberal tripe for months. You need a new schtick, lefty.
He hasn't figured out yet what you stated above so he's just trying to justify his lack of principles and silly voting record. He doesn't see himself as being part of what ails this country so he has got to find a way to make himself feel better about himself, and that is to bring others down to his level. Now if those aren't the actions of a true Leftard I don't know what are... “Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rapidly promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.”
I was wondering how long before he had one of his usual outbursts.
Comments (43 - 43) not displayed.
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestI'm looking at Walker (and even Perry) too
#3. To: TooConservative, hondo68 (#1)
#4. To: hondo68 (#0)
Junk science. Their conservative detector is broken. Huckabee and Perry pass for conservatives?
#5. To: Justified (#3)
Im from Texas and im praying that Perry doesn't even get close.
#6. To: hondo68 (#0)
#7. To: TooConservative (#1)
By default, I'm a Rand guy but I'm looking at Walker (and even Perry) too.
#8. To: tomder55 (#6)
My only questions about Walker are in foreign policy positions .
#9. To: sneakypete (#5)
I will never again vote for or support any politician that has held office in Texas. The system there is just too damn corrupt
#10. To: A K A Stone (#7)
#11. To: Gatlin (#10)
#12. To: A K A Stone, tomder55, America-last foreign policy, tryanical police state Goliath, *The Two Parties ARE the Same* (#8)
My only questions about Walker are in foreign policy positions .
#13. To: A K A Stone (#11)
#14. To: hondo68, A K A Stone (#12)
#15. To: Gatlin (#14)
(Edited)
Are you ever in the least bit satisfied with anything
#16. To: A K A Stone (#9)
I will never again vote for or support any politician that has held office in Texas. The system there is just too damn corrupt
#17. To: sneakypete (#16)
#18. To: hondo68 (#15)
#19. To: A K A Stone (#17)
Only a moron would think that everyone born in a certain state is unqualified.
#20. To: A K A Stone (#8)
My only questions about Walker are in foreign policy positions . Think Bush and Karl Rove.
#21. To: hondo68 (#0)
He is best known for signing legislation in 2011 that limited the bargaining power of Wisconsin’s public-sector unions, which prompted a labor-led recall attempt in 2012. Walker won that vote and was re-elected in 2014. He also led the state’s rejection of Medicaid expansion under Obamacare — Wisconsin was the second-most-liberal state (based on presidential election results) to say no — and he helped pass a strict voter identification law and cut taxes.
#22. To: Kluane (#21)
(Edited)
Reasons you dislike him.
#23. To: hondo68 (#22)
At the moment I'm merely skeptical.
#24. To: Kluane (#23)
You're a liberal.
#25. To: hondo68 (#24)
#26. To: A K A Stone (#7)
Back to Rand Paul. He is an absolute pussy on faggots pretending to be married. Then he is for legalizing drugs. Screw that asshole.
#27. To: Kluane (#25)
(Edited)
You're the one supporting Bernie Sanders and other kooks and halfwits, not I.
#28. To: Kluane, yukon, on Sterno, and Bath Salts (#25)
You're the one supporting Bernie Sanders and other kooks and halfwits, not I.
#29. To: hondo68 (#28)
#30. To: GrandIsland (#27)
7) LIVES, VOLUNTARILY, IN KOOKIFORNIA.
#31. To: Kluane, hondo68 (#29)
#32. To: Kluane (#30)
Are there any Kookifornia posters who aren't leftists?
#33. To: GrandIsland (#32)
#34. To: buckeroo (#33)
You really do... ashamedly agree with yukon, dontcha?
#35. To: GrandIsland (#34)
#36. To: GrandIsland, occupied by yukons gerbil, progressive neocon agenda, *The Two Parties ARE the Same* (#27)
5) He's afraid to state his presidential choice.
#37. To: hondo68 (#36)
I'm not pro-Drug, I'm pro-Liberty.
#38. To: Kluane, hondo68 (#25)
other kooks and halfwits
“Truth is treason in the empire of lies.” - Ron Paul
Americans who have no experience with, or knowledge of, tyranny believe that only terrorists will experience the unchecked power of the state. They will believe this until it happens to them, or their children, or their friends.
Paul Craig Roberts
#39. To: GrandIsland, hondo68 (#37)
You aren't pro Liberty unless that means YOU have more freedom than anyone around you.
#40. To: Deckard (#38)
#41. To: hondo68, Gay Canary Posse (#36)
It's easy to hate most D&R Party politicians, they suck.
#42. To: Deckard, A K A Stone (#38)
You aren't fooling anyone yukon.
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