I get it. With 15 people onstage, the debates will be enough of a circus without having a clown there. But on what grounds would you go about excluding Trump and no one else? And
wouldnt this backfire tremendously? Lets think this through.
His involvement in any televised debate will be damaging, said Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist based in Texas. It is my sincere hope that he is blocked from participating.
Hes a very toxic addition to the field, said Katie Packer Gage, deputy campaign manager of Mitt Romneys 2012 presidential campaign.
Mr. Trump so far has been invited to a number of GOP candidate forums, including one sponsored by the conservative website RedState slated for early August in Atlanta. Erick Erickson, the editor in chief of RedState, said he had concerns about including Mr. Trump but extended an invitation.
We invited him yesterday, Mr. Erickson said. I like him.
There is a level of the conservative base who like him. My concern is that I dont want the other candidates to be overshadowed by Trump. You could bar Trump on grounds that he has no realistic chance to be the nominee, but then youve got to bar Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, and, er, Mike Huckabee for starters as well. Obviously youre not going to bar him on grounds that he hasnt held public office before. The small-government party would never insist that government experience is the sine qua non of effective leadership. You could try to bar him by raising the polling threshold for inclusion in the debates, an ostensibly neutral filter for serious candidates, but then youre stuck excluding serious candidates like Bobby Jindal and John Kasich who are also below the cut-off right now. You could, I guess, bar him on personal grounds, that hes simply too boorish and obnoxious for a gentlemans debate, but in that case I have two words for you: Chris Christie.
More to the point, if you bump Trump hed call a presser and claim that the GOP excluded him only because theyre terrified hed win if given a fair chance, the best evidence yet that the system is rigged against true- believin conservative populists like the Donald. And some grassroots righties would buy that. I bet hed get a bump in the polls out of it, and theres no doubt hed spend the rest of the campaign attacking the party and its candidates viciously. Truth be told, I think the GOP is afraid of him not because they think hed win but because they know the media is at his beck and call and they know theres a slice of the public that takes him semi-seriously. If Trump were to declare war on the GOP because theyve affronted his ego or whatever, he could be a soundbite headache for them (and a boon to his friend Hillary) for the rest of the campaign. Mitt Romney didnt agree to receive Trumps endorsement in person three years ago because he wanted to be seen with Donald Trump. On the contrary, he did it through gritted teeth because he figured 10 minutes of adorning Trumps photo op was a less bad outcome than Trump spending the rest of the campaign calling him a loser wholl destroy the country just because Romney declined to show. Same with the GOP now. I think theyre going to give him a shot at the debates, extremely reluctantly, because its the less bad of the two alternatives hes given them.
Which is not to say theyll go on including him at every debate even if he acts up. A few choice soundbites from Trump about rapists from Mexico at the first event and theyll tighten up those poll cut-offs right quick for the second.
Two thoughts in closing: One: If the dummies at the RNC had embraced my ingenious plan for a series of one-on-one debates, none of this would be a problem. You could safely quarantine the serious candidates like Rubio and Walker and stick Trump with a series of similar longshots, most of whom would be grateful for the exposure in taking on the Donald. Two: Dont look now but Trump still hasnt filed the form officially declaring his candidacy with the FEC. Thats an absolute prerequisite to appearing at the debates. He still has 10 days, and I cant imagine why hed go to the trouble of announcing his candidacy only to pull the rug out so soon and miss the debates, but Trump skeptics have long suspected that hed never pull the trigger on disclosing his financial holdings in detail. Maybe
this has all been an elaborate fake-out? Thats probably the GOPs best hope of resolving this peacefully.