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United States News
See other United States News Articles

Title: The GOP Is Dying Off. Literally.
Source: Politico
URL Source: http://www.politico.com/magazine/st ... 8035.html?hp=t2_r#.VVnQK_lVhHx
Published: May 17, 2015
Author: DANIEL J. MCGRAW
Post Date: 2015-05-18 07:50:21 by Jameson
Keywords: Old Angry, White, Guys
Views: 28931
Comments: 128

It turns out that one of the Grand Old Party’s biggest—and least discussed—challenges going into 2016 is lying in plain sight, written right into the party’s own nickname.

The Republican Party voter is old—and getting older, and as the adage goes, there are two certainties in life: Death and taxes. Right now, both are enemies of the GOP and they might want to worry more about the former than the latter.

There’s been much written about how millennials are becoming a reliable voting bloc for Democrats, but there’s been much less attention paid to one of the biggest get-out-the-vote challenges for the Republican Party heading into the next presidential election: Hundreds of thousands of their traditional core supporters won’t be able to turn out to vote at all. The party’s core is dying off by the day.

Read more: www.politico.com/magazine...118035.html#ixzz3aURTGXqk

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 89.

#2. To: Jameson (#0)

The GOP represents crony capitalists. That's its core. Those are the people who always get everything that want out of the GOP.

To get the votes and the seats to advance that agenda, the GOP has in contemporary times made allies with militarists and pro-life Christians, gun nuts and other so-called "conservative" causes.

The problem, though, is that crony capitalists in general are liberal rich people, so they WANT abortion rights, and gun control, and open borders, and they want government contracts but not full-on wars to victory that require tax hikes.

And, because the Republicans always do the bidding of the crony capitalists, who are really liberal on social issues, the result has been that the systematic betrayal of the Christian pro-lifers, the Borderbots, the gun nuts and the soldiery. Republicans only fight to the death for one thing: low taxes on the rich (and contracts for cronies). Everything else is negotiable.

Net result? The crony capitalists are intensely loyal to the GOP base, but others have left, stayed home, given up.

And it isn't as though Mexicans, or young people, or really, anybody, is flocking into the GOP.

It's time for a new party. Crony capitalism has a death grip on the Republican Party that cannot be, and will never be, pried loose.

People have two choices: form a new party, or satisfy themselves with Democrat rule.

I'm not satisfied with Democrat rule. I want to see a third party. But Republican rule is godawful and old people are stubborn. So we're going to get Hillary.

Oh well.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-05-18   8:13:46 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: Vicomte13 (#2)

Oh well.

What are your thoughts on a constitutional convention?

Jameson  posted on  2015-05-18   10:35:20 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: Jameson (#12)

What are your thoughts on a constitutional convention?

I'm mildly in favor,for the same reason I favor Scottish independence: it will be entertaining.

I doubt anything good will come out of a convention, because the entrenched powers are too entrenched, so they'll just use the convention to further entrench and streamline.

But I'm prepared to be surprised.

A constitutional amendment that stated that life began at conception and (therefore) banned abortion outright would be good.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-05-18   10:41:59 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#82. To: Vicomte13, Jameson (#14)

[Vicomte13] A constitutional amendment that stated that life began at conception and (therefore) banned abortion outright would be good.

As phrased, the amendment might accomplish nothing. Abortion as interpreted by Roe depends on competing interests of the State and the individual at various stages of development, and whether the fetus is viable.

For the purpose you appear to desire, an amendment may be preferred holding that a fetus, from conception, is a person under the 14th Amendment. (If the Union Pacific RR Corp can do it, why not a fetus?)

You might want to change the citizenship clause to confer citizenship at conception.

This raises a few other issues:

  • The “anchor fetus” would replace the “anchor baby.”

  • In the case of rape, the government would require the impregnated victim of the crime to carry the rapist’s child to term and deliver it. Can the mother, impregnated and forced to give birth against her will, be held responsible for the child or to pay child support?

nolu chan  posted on  2015-05-22   17:02:08 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#83. To: nolu chan (#82)

Yes, the rape victim must carry the baby. She cannot murder the child.

No, she cannot be compelled to provide child support out of the gate. She has the right to give up the child to the state for orphanage or adoption, if she does so at once.

However, if she keeps the child, she loses this right. Long-term optionality does not remain. The mother must bear the child, but she either keeps the newborn or hands it over for adoption. In this way, the child is affected least.

Of course the abolition of abortion means that there will have to be a larger and more effective social safety net, because without abortion there would be 1.5 million more kids in the country every year, and probably 1,3 million of them would be poor.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-05-22   18:06:09 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#84. To: Vicomte13, nolu chan, Y'ALL (#83)

For the purpose you appear to desire, an amendment may be preferred holding that a fetus, from conception, is a person under the 14th Amendment.

You might want to change the citizenship clause to confer citizenship at conception.

Can the mother, impregnated and forced to give birth against her will, be held responsible for the child or to pay child support? ---- nolu chan

No, she cannot be compelled to provide child support out of the gate. She has the right to give up the child to the state for orphanage or adoption, if she does so at once.

However, if she keeps the child, she loses this right. Long-term optionality does not remain. The mother must bear the child, but she either keeps the newborn or hands it over for adoption. In this way, the child is affected least.

Of course the abolition of abortion means that there will have to be a larger and more effective social safety net, because without abortion there would be 1.5 million more kids in the country every year, and probably 1,3 million of them would be poor.

Vicomte13

A better question is: --- Can the impregnated woman be forced to give birth against her will, under the present constitution? -- And would an amendment giving that power to government be valid?

tpaine  posted on  2015-05-22   18:29:10 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#87. To: tpaine, Vicomte13 (#84)

A better question is: --- Can the impregnated woman be forced to give birth against her will, under the present constitution? --

As currently interpreted under Roe, even a voluntarily impregnated woman cannot be forced to continue the pregnancy against her will. The court found a constitutional right to an abortion emanating from an uncertain penumbra.

And would an amendment giving that power to government be valid?

I do not see why not. There is no such thing as a legal challenge to the validity of a constitutional provision. SCOTUS could not rule a part of the Constitution invalid. Once the Secretary of State certifies an amendment as having been ratified, the amendment and the process by which it was ratified is beyond judicial review.

An amendment saying booze was unconstitutional was valid. Enough people chose to ignore that amendment that it was not enforceable.

An anti-abortion amendment would not end abortion. Neither Democrats nor Republicans will touch upon proposing a constitutional amendment. Do nothing, feel good legislation is fair game.

nolu chan  posted on  2015-05-23   2:12:37 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#89. To: nolu chan (#87)

A better question is: --- Can the impregnated woman be forced to give birth against her will, under the present constitution? --

As currently interpreted under Roe, even a voluntarily impregnated woman cannot be forced to continue the pregnancy against her will. The court found a constitutional right to an abortion emanating from an uncertain penumbra.

No, the court opined that a woman has the same rights against involuntary servitude as a man. Call it a penumba if you must.

And would an amendment giving that power to government be valid?

Ido not see why not. There is no such thing as a legal challenge to the validity of a constitutional provision. SCOTUS could not rule a part of the Constitution invalid. Once the Secretary of State certifies an amendment as having been ratified, the amendment and the process by which it was ratified is beyond judicial review.

Not true. The prohibition amendment was so challenged, and the SCOTUS refused to make an opinion on the issue. It remains unresolved..

An amendment saying booze was unconstitutional was valid.

No, the issue was unresolved.

Enough people chose to ignore that amendment that it was not enforceable.

True.

An anti-abortion amendment would not end abortion. Neither Democrats nor Republicans will touch upon proposing a constitutional amendment. Do nothing, feel good legislation is fair game.

We agree, again.

tpaine  posted on  2015-05-23   2:48:07 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 89.

#91. To: tpaine (#89)

As currently interpreted under Roe, even a voluntarily impregnated woman cannot be forced to continue the pregnancy against her will. The court found a constitutional right to an abortion emanating from an uncertain penumbra.

No, the court opined that a woman has the same rights against involuntary servitude as a man. Call it a penumba if you must.

No, the court did not opine about involuntary servitude. It opined about a constitutional right to privacy. It is a right that emanates from a penumbra of the 9th or 14th Amendment.

410 U.S. 113, 129

The principal thrust of appellant's attack on the Texas statutes is that they improperly invade a right, said to be possessed by the pregnant woman, to choose to terminate her pregnancy. Appellant would discover this right in the concept of personal "liberty" embodied in the Fourteenth Amendment's Due Process Clause; or in personal, marital, familial, and sexual privacy said to be protected by the Bill of Rights or its penumbras, see Griswold v. Connecticut, 381 U.S. 479 (1965); Eisenstadt v. Baird, 405 U.S. 438 (1972); id., at 460 (WHITE, J., concurring in result); or among those rights reserved to the people by the Ninth Amendment, Griswold v. Connecticut, 381 U.S., at 486 (Goldberg, J., concurring).

410 U.S. 113, 153

This right of privacy, whether it be founded in the Fourteenth Amendment's concept of personal liberty and restrictions upon state action, as we feel it is, or, as the District Court determined, in the Ninth Amendment's reservation of rights to the people, is broad enough to encompass a woman's decision whether or not to terminate her pregnancy.

The right is somewhere in the Bill of Rights or its penumbras, either in the 9th Amendment or the 14th Amendment, and wherever it is, it "is broad enough to encompass a woman's decision whether or not to terminate her pregnancy."

I must use the word penumbra as SCOTUS explicitly used that word in locating the constitutional right of privacy.

There is no such thing as a legal challenge to the validity of a constitutional provision. SCOTUS could not rule a part of the Constitution invalid. Once the Secretary of State certifies an amendment as having been ratified, the amendment and the process by which it was ratified is beyond judicial review.

Not true. The prohibition amendment was so challenged, and the SCOTUS refused to make an opinion on the issue. It remains unresolved..

You're wrong. SCOTUS lacks jurisidiction to issue such an opinion. It has similarly refused to review the process by which the 14th Amendment was ratified. It is non-justiciable. It is a political question given by the constitution to the Legislative Branch to decide.

You do not identify a court decision. In 1920, SCOTUS emphatically held of the 18th Amendment, "That Amendment, by lawful proposal and ratification, has become a part of the Constitution, and must be respected and given effect the same as other provisions of that instrument."

https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/253/350/case.html

U.S. Supreme Court

National Prohibition Cases, 253 U.S. 350 (1920)

National Prohibition Cases

No. 29, 30, Original, and No. 696, 762, 788, 794, 837

Argued March 8, 9, 10, 29, 30, 1920

Decided June 7, 1920

253 U.S. 350

ORIGINAL, AND APPEALS FROM THE DISTRICT COURTS OF THE UNITED

STATES FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS, THE WESTERN DISTRICT

OF KENTUCKY, THE DISTRICT OF NEW JERSEY, THE EASTERN DISTRICT OF

WISCONSIN, AND THE EASTERN DISTRICT OF MISSOURI

Syllabus

The adoption by both houses of Congress, each by a two-thirds vote, of a joint resolution proposing an amendment to the Constitution sufficiently shows that the proposal was deemed necessary by all who voted for it. An express declaration that they regarded it as necessary is not essential. P. 253 U. S. 386.

The two-thirds vote in each house which is required in proposing an amendment is a vote of two-thirds of the members present -- assuming the presence of a quorum -- and not a vote of two-thirds of the entire membership, present and absent. Id. Missouri Pacific Ry. Co. v. Kansas, 248 U. S. 276.

The referendum provisions of state constitutions and statutes cannot be applied, consistently with the Constitution of the United States, in the ratification or rejection of amendments to it. Id. Hawke v. Smith, ante, 253 U. S. 221.

The prohibition of the manufacture, sale, transportation, importation and exportation of intoxicating liquors for beverage purposes, as embodied in the Eighteenth Amendment, is within the power to amend reserved by Article V of the Constitution. Id.

That Amendment, by lawful proposal and ratification, has become a part of the Constitution, and must be respected and given effect the same as other provisions of that instrument. Id.

[...]

See also Coleman v. Miller.

https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/307/433/case.html

U.S. Supreme Court

Coleman v. Miller, 307 U.S. 433 (1939)

Coleman v. Miller

No. 7

Argued October 10, 1938

Reargued April 17, 18, 1939

Decided June 5, 1939

307 U.S. 433

CERTIORARI TO THE SUPREME COURT OF KANSAS

Syllabus

1. Upon submission of a resolution for ratification of a proposed amendment to the Federal Constitution, known as the Child Labor Amendment, twenty of the forty senators of the State of Kansas voted in favor of its adoption and twenty voted against it. The Lieutenant Governor, the presiding officer of the Senate, then cast his vote in favor of the resolution, and later it was adopted by the other house of the legislature on a vote of a majority of its members. The twenty senators who had voted against ratification, challenging the right of the Lieutenant Governor to cast the deciding vote in the Senate, and alleging that the proposed amendment had lost its vitality because of previous rejection by Kansas and other States and failure of ratification within a reasonable time, sought a writ of mandamus to compel the Secretary of the Senate to erase an endorsement on the resolution, to the effect that it had been adopted by the Senate, and to endorse thereon the words "was not passed," and to restrain the officers of the Senate and House of Representatives from signing the resolution and the Secretary of Kansas from authenticating it and delivering it to the Governor. The State entered its appearance, and the State Supreme Court entertained the action, sustained the right of the plaintiffs to maintain it, but overruled their contentions, upheld the ratification, and denied the writ.

Held:

(1) The questions decided were federal questions, arising under. Article V of the Constitution. P. 307 U. S. 437.

(2) The complaining senators, whose votes against ratification have been overridden and virtually held for naught, although, if they are right in their contentions, their votes would have been sufficient to defeat ratification, have a plain, direct and adequate interest in maintaining the effectiveness of their votes. They have set up and claimed a right and privilege under the Constitution of the United States to have their votes given effect, and the state court has denied that right and privilege. P. 307 U. S. 438.

(3) This Court has jurisdiction to review the decision of the state court by certiorari, under Jud.Code § 237(b). P. 307 U. S. 438.

Page 307 U. S. 434

2. The Court, being equally divided in opinion as to whether the question presents a justiciable controversy, or is a political question, expresses no opinion upon a contention that the Lieutenant Governor of Kansas was not a part of the "legislature," and, under Article V of the Federal Constitution, could not be permitted a deciding vote on the ratification of the proposed amendment. P. 307 U. S. 446.

3. In accordance with the precedent of the Fourteenth Amendment, the efficacy of ratification of a proposed amendment to the Federal Constitution by a state legislature which had previously rejected the proposal is held a question for the political departments, with the ultimate authority in the Congress in the exercise of its control over the promulgation of the adoption of the amendment. P. 307 U. S. 447.

4. The legislature of Kansas having actually ratified the proposed Child Labor Amendment, this Court should not restrain the state officers from certifying the ratification to the Secretary of State because of an earlier rejection, and thus prevent the question from coming before the political departments. There is found no basis in either Constitution or statute for such judicial action. P. 307 U. S. 450.

5. R.S. § 205; 5 U.S.C. 160, presupposes official notice to the Secretary of State when a state legislature has adopted a resolution of ratification. No warrant is seen for judicial interference with the performance of that duty. P. 307 U. S. 450.

6. The Congress, in controlling the promulgation of the adoption of a constitutional amendment, has the final determination of the question whether, by lapse of time, its proposal of the amendment had lost its vitality before being adopted by the requisite number of legislatures. P. 307 U. S. 451.

7. In determining whether a question falls within the category of political nonjusticiable questions, the appropriateness under our system of government of attributing finality to the action of the political departments, and also the lack of satisfactory criteria for a judicial determination, are dominant considerations. P. 307 U. S. 454.

146 Kan. 390; 71 P.2d 518, reversed.

nolu chan  posted on  2015-05-26 18:13:17 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 89.

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