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Title: NEW POLL: 60% OF REPUBLICANS WILL NOT VOTE IN 2016 IF BUSH IS THE NOMINEE
Source:
Game Changer PAC
URL Source: http://gamechangerpac.com/new-poll- ... n-2016-if-bush-is-the-nominee/
Published: May 9, 2015
Author: Timothy Core
Post Date: 2015-05-09 11:13:52 by Hondo68
Keywords: None
Views: 17914
Comments: 65
In a poll by Game Changer PAC, surveying 2,226 likely Republican voters, 59.66% of respondents said that if Jeb Bush ends up as the 2016 Republican Presidential Nominee… they won’t vote at all in the 2016 General Election. The poll shows that Republican voters are tired of holding their noses and will no longer vote in lock-step with the party. Bush is seen as a fundraising powerhouse and is on track to raise over 100 million dollars by the end of May. This fact is causing the establishment wing of the Republican party to salivate more than Pavlov’s Dogs in a fire drill. The sad fact is that throughout recent history BOTH major parties have decided which perspective nominees will be endorsed by the full weight of their parties primarily on fundraising successes. The Republican party has been dealing with push-back from this model for the last few years with the rise of the Tea Party- and has seen some positive results and an energized base- though this is not the party’s doing or desire. The Democrat party has maintained this model and used the rise of the Tea Party as fodder for negative campaign ads. With some candidates and strategists even going so far as to brand Republican candidates with ZERO tea party support as “Tea Partiers” or “Tea Baggers” in the hopes that by branding them in that way the Democrat’s low-information segment will become energized due to a stigma that has been unfairly attached to all members of the Tea Party due to the actions of a few of them. While it is still too early to tell if the establishment wings of both parties will get the message that simply running candidates that share 90% of the same views, just with a different letter behind their name, doesn’t work anymore. The American people are doing their best to try to get that message across. However, when you listen to most pundits, the race has already been fought. Most have declared that in the 2016 general election Jeb Bush will be pitted against Hillary Clinton and that Clinton will come out ahead, ultimately becoming the 45th President of the United States. But in reality we still have no clue who the nominees will be much less the next President. Currently there are over 300 people who have filed with the FEC to run for President in 2016, with more added all the time. One thing is for sure though: If Jeb Bush is the Republican Presidential Nominee, whoever the Democrat Presidential Nominee is will be the next President. A large number of people have accused Game Changer PAC of lying about the results, Of making the whole thing up as a hit piece against Jeb Bush, Of not using a random sample for our poll, et cetera ad nauseam. This update is to clarify some of those misconceptions. Jerry Brown (Democratic incumbent) We understand that this is not a favorable poll result for Jeb Bush. We understand why so many have reservations about believing the results. However, those were the results. Thank you for reading. For those of you that are complaining about the Margin of Error. We calculated margin of error using the z*-Value for 95% confidence (standard) which is 1.96 we used the proper equation of : Z√P(1-P)/n=1.96√(0.5966)(.4034)/2226 =(1.96)(0.010397) = 0.02037812 Which means a 2% margin of error
Poster Comment: Even more despised than Willie-Mitt?
UPDATE (5/8/2015):
Neel Kashkari (“Establishment” Republican candidate)
Tim Donnelly (“Tea Party” Republican candidate)
Kashkari was seen by many Tea Party Republicans as more liberal than Brown due to his management of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Donnelly was a founding member of the “Minute Men” civilian border patrol and an unabashed right winger. Kashkari was a late entry, to replace Able Maldonado who dropped out, with a lot of money behind him.
Because of Kashkari’s perceived liberalism many far right Republicans publicly stated that they would skip the General Election if Donnelly wasn’t the nominee -Since write-ins aren’t allowed in partisan General Elections in California due to Prop 14.
Kashkari went on to beat Donnelly in the Primary and then those who said that they wouldn’t vote in the general, didn’t. The 2014 California Gubernatorial General Election had a turnout rate of 21.4% which was not only a record low but less than half of the turn out seen in the 2010 midterms.UPDATE 2 (5/8/15)
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#6. To: hondo68 (#0)
We're already into the anybody-but-Bush phase of the 2016 race, in many ways a replay of the 2012 anybody-but-Romney campaign. If the GOP base wants any chance to stop Bush, they have to do it early on in IA and NH and SC. Not fritter votes and delegates away on hopeless longshot candidates (Carson, Huckabee, Fiorina, etc.). There are only three, maybe four GOP candidates that have any real potential to defeat Bush for the nomination. The Tea folk and conservatives and Religious Right had better find some one candidate to unite behind sooner than later. Otherwise, the huge advantages of an elite-backed and tycoon-backed candidate like Bush (or Romney) will gradually overcome all other candidates in Florida and beyond, exactly as it did in 2012 and many other GOP primaries.
hopeless longshot candidates (Carson, Huckabee, Fiorina, etc.) Yeah, they all say that but really mean switch to MY candidate. That never seems to work. Jeb is probably contributing to them, to split the vote.
#21. To: hondo68 (#12)
One of Walker's strengths is that he ranks high as the second-pick of so many GOP voters. So a lot of people seem willing to settle on him if their fave fails (Fiorina, Huck, Carson, etc.). So Walker may be the anti-Bush in 2016, much as Santorum ended up as the anti-Romney in 2012. I think the Tea folk and conservatives are pretty aware of how Romney outlasted and outspent them as they jumped from Gingrich to Herman Cain (WTH?) to Santorum. Romney just outspent them and hung on and prevailed almost inevitably. So I think more GOP voters are thinking hard about who can stop Bush in 2016 before he gains almost unstoppable momentum and party elite backing.
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#12. To: TooConservative (#6)
The Tea folk and conservatives and Religious Right had better find some one candidate to unite behind
Replies to Comment # 12. Yeah, they all say that but really mean switch to MY candidate. That never seems to work.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 12.
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