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Title: Rand Paul Is Losing His Father’s Base
Source:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/
URL Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features ... ul-is-losing-his-fathers-base/
Published: Apr 7, 2015
Author: HARRY ENTEN
Post Date: 2015-04-07 21:47:24 by Gatlin
Keywords: None
Views: 6638
Comments: 41
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s presidential campaign is less than a day old but already suffers from an identity crisis. Paul wants to win, but he can only do so if he is seen as more mainstream than his father, Ron Paul, who ran for president in 2008 and 2012. At the same time, Paul can’t completely jettison the far-left and far-right positions that have made him a hero to the substantial number of Republican libertarians who made up his father’s base. In Paul’s dream world, he’ll satisfy everyone. In the most likely real world, he’ll end up satisfying no one. The most obvious path for Paul to win the GOP nomination is to build on the 21 percent of the vote his father earned in Iowa in 2012, and the 23 percent Paul Sr. picked up in New Hampshire that year. In a divided primary field, that might not seem so difficult; 25 percent might be enough to win both states. And with wins in the first two contests, Paul might be able to ride the Big Mo’ to the nomination. But right now, Paul isn’t anywhere close to where his father ended up in either state in 2012. Paul is polling at a little less than 9 percent in Iowa and nearly 11 percent in New Hampshire. That’s far closer to the percentage of the vote earned by Paul Sr. in both states during his 2008 bid for the presidency, which was far less relevant than his 2012 run. In fact, Paul is losing support across the board. While he was initially able to outpace his father’s 2012 success, his national numbers have been dropping over the last year.
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#1. To: Gatlin (#0)
It's ironic, but Rand Paul could conceivably win a general election against Xlinton. In the wacko blue states, he'd be at least competiive in statist hell-holes like CA and NY. He might even win a few of the less farther gone ones. And he'd carry the red states that Romney won. But he'll never get the chance - because he's never, ever going to win a gop nomination. Not in a million years.
You have a serious problem, tater. Your manipulation of threads, spreading both gossip & innuendo is startling considering you don't give a damn about true conservative principles. Since you love and enjoy Arizona, why not post an article that you can enjoy, such as McCain is running for Arizona Senator for a 6th term and you are going to vote for him.
Wow, you certainly are consistent. In fact, you're so consistent I'm going to reward you with some information you may find interesting. Remember an old forum called Patriots Corner? They had a mod who you had major disagreements with, particularly about that certain mod wanting to punch John McCain in the face. Remember that? That mod used the handle "Crockett". Remember? That was me.
We used to be a land where we gave up our lives to protect our freedom. Now we give up our freedom to protect our lives.
Kind of misleading like a truck question. Rand Paul is ahead of his father at this point.
You don't really know that. It is just your opinion. I'm sure you saw me on here saying I will vote for Cruz. But you know what. I could switch to Rand Paul. I like Cruz more on social issues and I think he is more willing to fight for conservative principals. I like Rand Pauls view of the Patriot act. On foreign Policy I think we shouldn't be attacking many of the places we did starting with Bush. The first Bush for that matter. But I also see the need to keep evil People from acquiring WMD's. Not that Rand is for letting that happen but Cruz is more of a Hawk. Being more of a Hawk can be good or bad depending on the circumstance.
I see the filthy Neocons and their Military Industrial Complex buddies are scared Paul's message will take hold and are ramping up their smear campaign.
Should a voter be won over to a candidate by his own merits -
A majority of voters felt the same way. They'd rather have a Kenyan president, than Gatlin's Panamanian guest worker, Juan McAmnesty.
On his own merits. But knowing who a man was raised by might be of some benefit also. But mainly the merits of the individual. Why do you ask?
Rafael Cruz fought with Fidel Castro, Ron Paul was in the US Air Force. Ponder that.
Who gives a shit dude. You were telling me last year to vote for someone who thinks it is ok to chop up kids. Everyone makes mistakes. Rafael is a good man. You can't judge someone by what they did as a kid what 60 years ago. Tell me what the man has done in the last 20 years that you disagree with. Ron Paul thinks heroin should be legal. Rafael doesn't. Ponder that. That is today.
Nice parry and thrust on the who's-your-daddy question. : )
The article is kinda specious even if 538 are stats wizards. First, Rand Paul is running in 2016, not in 2008 or in 2012 which were themselves nomination and general election battles with very different dynamics and key issues. Foreign policy can come to the fore and recede over the course of a campaign. A lot can change in fairly short order. The public is likely to go back to sleep on ISIS and national security if ISIS starts suffering serious reverses. Also, if all of the GOP candidates not named 'Paul' manage to convince the public that voting for them is a vote to invade Iran or Syria, all bets are off. It's all fine to yap about Rand being dangerous on foreign policy but the GOP is completely deluded if they think they win by scaring the public into it. Only a 9/11 attack could do that and that might work more to Hitlery's advantage than the GOP. We've already had Walker as big frontrunner, now supposedly gone up in flames over a few sentences and a condescending attack by Obama. Recall when Rubio was riding so high, signed on to the Gang of 8 shamnesty, totally tanked in the polls and has now made a decent comeback? People seem to think the race is over before it has barely begun. Historically, you don't really want to be the frontrunner so early. You don't want the media spotlight on you throughout, picking you apart. It doesn't matter what the polls say now, better to slowly build your machine and support under the radar and peak just as you approach the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. It's way too early to get so excited, one way or the other, by polls about any candidate in the early states. It's gotta be boob bait this far out.
Question: "...With..." or "...Against?..." Just asking...
"Is losing"? He lost me within 15 minutes of opening his mouth the first day when he came out as being standing firmly on nothing at all but the moment.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
"...With..." or "...Against?..." Just asking... Here is what Ted Cruz's father teahces. I'll get your other answer in a few minutes. www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/10/rafael-cruz- quotes_n_4760243.html On the death penalty: "Go to Genesis chapter nine and you will find the death penalty clearly stated in Genesis chapter nine ... God ordains the death penalty!” 2 On Glen Beck, the savior: AP Photo/David J. Phillip "I praise God for men like Glen Beck and Matt Kibbe who are not afraid to speak the truth, who are like modern John the Baptist, crying out in the wilderness." 3 On going to the battlefield: "God has given you an anointing to go to the battlefield. And what's the battlefield? The marketplace. To go to the marketplace and occupy the land. To go to the marketplace and take dominion." 4 On evolution: "Evolution is one of the strongest tools of Marxism because if they can convince you that you came from a monkey, it’s much easier to convince you that God does not exist." 5 On Socialism and God: AP Photo/Pat Sullivan "Socialism requires that government becomes your God. That's why they have to destroy your concept of God. They have to destroy all your loyalties except loyalty to the government." 6 On the U.S. as a "Christian nation": "The president has the gall to tell us that this is not a Christian nation. The United States of American was formed to honor the word of God." 7 On Obama destroying God: AP Photo/Pat Sullivan "We have to unmask this man. This is a man that seeks to destroy all concept of God -- and I will tell you what, this is classical Marxist philosophy." 8 On the anointed ones: “The wealth of the wicked is stored for the righteous. And it is through the kings, anointed to take dominion, that that transfer of wealth is going to occur." 9 On Obama as a Muslim: “Barack Obama said: If the winds shift, I will side with the Muslims.” 10 On atheism and sexual abuse: "When there are no moral absolutes, [this] leads us to sexual immorality, leads us to sexual abuse, leads us to perversion and, of course, no hope."
IMO,that is only because most people don't know him as well as his father,and unlike his father,he doesn't hesitate to play politician and have weasel positions. I don't agree with Ron Paul on everything,but I do give him credit for standing firm on what HE believes in,even if it might cost him votes.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
I don't agree with Ron Paul on everything,but I do give him credit for standing firm on what HE believes in,even if it might cost him votes. I agree with Rand more the Ron. Rand is more practical. Also. Ayn Rand sucks.
Here is one place we are in complete agreement. I'll even go further. Show me a candidate that will get up there in front of the teebee cameras and state loud and proud that an America under HIS or HER presidency will no longer follow a foreign policy of killing privates or other cannon fodder,but will be targeting the financiers that finance the guerrilla terrorism wars by seizing their entire bank accounts,and then tracking them down like dogs and hanging them in public. Cut off the money,cut off the war within a week. No money for food,supplies,transportation,clothing,weapons,medicine,etc,etc,etc = raghead cannon fodder walking back home to eat mud pies and MAYBE roasting their tribal leaders over a fire. Just like the common sense expression towards work states "work smart,not hard",we need to "fight smart,not hard". You don't win wars by killing spear carriers. You win wars by going after the leadership. That way we can not only win,but kill or cripple a HELL of a lot fewer innocents and have a hell of a lot fewer orphans growing up with grudges against us. Not to mention that it is the moral thing to do.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
Better to be betrayed by a idiot who doesn't know any better than to be purposely betrayed by someone who does and is doing it for the money and ego.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
You can't just automatically cut off money. And that is a good thing. Because when that happens. It will the the antichrist in charge. He causeth all rich and poor free and bond to receive a mark in their right hand or forehead. That no man shall buy or sell except he who hath that mark and that mark is the number of a man and it is six and 3 score and six. 666. Or something like that from Revelation chapter 13. That is from my memory and not a direct quote from Bible. Speaking of that Pete. You should read the Bible. Again. I think you missed something.
It's never too early to hate any candidate named Bush. Hate early,hate hard.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
An opinion with it's root in religious superstition.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
"...With..." or "...Against?..." He was definitely a pro-Castro activist in Austin. How much fighting with Castro he did, depends on which story you're listening to. http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/the-political-education-of-rafael-cruz#.uxlrQyWVE Cruz says his dad Rafael, "was a guerilla, throwing Molotov cocktails and blowing up buildings." Batista later tortured him.
Sure you can. Most of it comes from Saudi Arabia,and with the computing brain and electronic power the NSA has,there is no such thing as untraceable money anymore. You can shut it down two ways. One is by seizing the bank accounts used to transfer funds to terrorist groups and then filing suit to seize the rest of their money,and the other is to seize their money and then kill the bastards. My vote is for the seize the money and kill the bastards plan. You should read the Bible. I prefer better written fiction.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2011/10/ted-cruz-background-as-son- of.html/
Oh Pete you are so ignorant.
Hate early,hate hard. You're going all in early. Don't peak too soon. : )
What I find hilarious is birthers who support Cruz.
I'm trying to pace myself so I don't stroke out before JEB "His-Panic" Bush tosses his sombrero in the ring.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
This whole idea of painting Rand with the same 'political paintbrush' Did I and my father agree on some things? Sure. Did we agree I am not my father.
I see exactly what you mean. I agree with my father mostly on politics. But he isn't as conservative as I am. We disagree on a whole host of issues.
Right. For instance - my father was a member of a union for many decades. But my (formerly) 89 year old Dad and I grew up in two entirely
You missed the paragraph that came before "not in a million years." What it referred to was the probability of Rand Paul getting the gop nomination IMO he would do well in the general - even to the point of being competitive in some blue-state hell-holes. But he'll NEVER get the gop nod . . .
You'll find that Rand will do the same, but too a lessor degree. You can't be stoic on every social issue and expext to win a national election. If you aren't viable, you're stoic platform is worthless. Rand is a stepping stone to what you desire in a president. This fickle country will never just elect a Ron Paul fresh out the two party failure box. Imho, Rand will do more for Liberty than Cruz will. It's also my opinion that Rand has a better personality to unite (like Reagan and Clinton) than Cruz. Rand has my vote
Every society gets the kind of criminal it deserves. What is equally true is that every community gets the kind of law enforcement it insists on. Robert Kennedy
He is a warm personality. A lot of pols lose their personal charm over the years of being a professional politician.
He handled an attack interview very well. Obviously, she was in full snarky bitch mode and trying to drive him into a corner. It didn't work. He still dominated the interview, hit his own themes well, and didn't come off as browbeating Teh Little Woman. A good example of why I say Rand is 10x the retail pol that Ron ever was. Ron would have been sputtering helplessly as we saw many times. Rand can hold his own against a hostile interview much better.
My sound is messed up. I didn't actually watch the video.
Anyone who knows Ron's interviews well would notice how well Rand did. Ron only ever did a good interview if it was a friendly interviewer, like a few of the Fox News folks. If it was hostile (like this one of Rand), he'd just flounder and sputter and get mad/frustrated.
I can't argue with that. It's also my opinion that Rand has a better personality to unite (like Reagan and Clinton) than Cruz. Could be. I'll see how he does and listen to what he says over the next few months. Not real crazy about him at this point,though. He seems WAY to willing to sacrifice his principles to me. You either stand for something,or you will stand for anything.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
#2. To: Gatlin (#0)
#3. To: Gatlin (#0)
#4. To: Gatlin (#0)
ut right now, Paul isn’t anywhere close to where his father ended up in either state in 2012. Paul is polling at a little less than 9 percent in Iowa and nearly 11 percent in New Hampshire
#5. To: Rufus T Firefly (#1)
Not in a million years.
#6. To: Gatlin, Rufus T Firefly, buckeroo, We The People, A K A Stone (#0)
#7. To: A K A Stone (#5)
or those of his father? Ummmmm.....
#8. To: We The People, Gatlin, Obama campaign worker, Acorn, *Border Invasion* (#3)
(Edited)
wanting to punch John McCain in the face
The D&R terrorists hate us because we're free, to vote second party
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#9. To: Chuck_Wagon (#7)
Should a voter be won over to a candidate by his own merits - or those of his father? Ummmmm.....
#10. To: A K A Stone, Chuck_Wagon (#9)
knowing who a man was raised by might be of some benefit
The D&R terrorists hate us because we're free, to vote second party
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#11. To: hondo68 (#10)
Rafael Cruz fought with Fidel Castro, Ron Paul was in the US Air Force. Ponder that.
#12. To: hondo68 (#10)
Rafael Cruz fought with Fidel Castro, Ron Paul was in the US Air Force. Ponder that.
#13. To: A K A Stone (#4)
Kind of misleading like a truck question. Rand Paul is ahead of his father at this point.
#14. To: hondo68 (#10)
Rafael Cruz fought with Fidel Castro...
#15. To: Gatlin (#0)
#16. To: Chuck_Wagon (#14)
afael Cruz fought with Fidel Castro... Question:
#17. To: A K A Stone (#4)
Kind of misleading like a truck question. Rand Paul is ahead of his father at this point.
#18. To: sneakypete (#17)
IMO,that is only because most people don't know him as well as his father,and unlike his father,he doesn't hesitate to play politician and have weasel positions.
#19. To: A K A Stone (#5)
(Edited)
On foreign Policy I think we shouldn't be attacking many of the places we did starting with Bush.
#20. To: hondo68 (#8)
A majority of voters felt the same way. They'd rather have a Kenyan president, than Gatlin's Panamanian guest worker, Juan McAmnesty.
#21. To: sneakypete (#19)
targeting the financiers that finance the guerrilla terrorism wars by seizing their entire bank accounts,and then tracking them down like dogs and hanging them in public. Cut off the money,cut off the war within a week. No money for food,supplies,transportation,clothing,weapons,medicine,etc,etc,etc = raghead cannon fodder walking back home to eat mud pies and MAYBE roasting their tribal leaders over a fire. Just like the common sense expression towards work states "work smart,not hard",we need to "fight smart,not hard". That way we can not only win,but kill or cripple a HELL of a lot fewer innocents and have a hell of a lot fewer orphans growing up with grudges against us. Not to mention that it is the moral thing to do.
#22. To: TooConservative (#13)
It's way too early to get so excited, one way or the other, by polls about any candidate in the early states.
#23. To: A K A Stone (#18)
Ayn Rand sucks.
#24. To: Chuck_Wagon (#14)
Question:
http://silvanetblog.blogspot.com/2012/08/ted-cruzs-stockholm-syndrome.html The D&R terrorists hate us because we're free, to vote second party
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#25. To: A K A Stone (#21)
You can't just automatically cut off money.
#26. To: Chuck_Wagon (#14)
#27. To: sneakypete (#25)
I prefer better written fiction.
#28. To: sneakypete (#22)
It's never too early to hate any candidate named Bush.
#29. To: hondo68 (#24)
#30. To: TooConservative (#28)
Don't peak too soon. : )
#31. To: A K A Stone (#9)
(Edited)
Why do you ask?
as his father is dumb IMO. If YOU were to run for office,
how comfortable would you be answering for every political
decision that YOUR father ever made? See what I mean?
on everything? Absolutely not.
#32. To: Chuck_Wagon (#31)
This whole idea of painting Rand with the same 'political paint brush' as his father is dumb IMO. If YOU were to run for office, how comfortable would you be answering for every political decision that YOUR father ever made? See what I mean?
#33. To: A K A Stone (#32)
We disagree on a whole host of issues.
I have never worked where I had a chance to join a union.
And I never had any interest in the concept.
I have a whole different concept of what 'work' can, and
should consist of. (I'm an engineer and entrepreneur.)
different worlds. The world changed a wee bit in 39 years, eh?
#34. To: A K A Stone (#5)
Not in a million years. You don't really know that. It is just your opinion.
#35. To: sneakypete (#17)
I don't agree with Ron Paul on everything,but I do give him credit for standing firm on what HE believes in,even if it might cost him votes.
#36. To: GrandIsland (#35)
It's also my opinion that Rand has a better personality to unite (like Reagan and Clinton) than Cruz.
#37. To: GrandIsland (#35)
#38. To: A K A Stone, GrandIsland (#37)
#39. To: TooConservative (#38)
It didn't work. He still dominated the interview, hit his own themes well, and didn't come off as browbeating Teh Little Woman.
#40. To: A K A Stone (#39)
#41. To: GrandIsland (#35)
Imho, Rand will do more for Liberty than Cruz will.
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