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Title: Opinion: Sanctions, drop in oil price best things that ever happened to Russia-Russia’s economy pivoting away from crony capitalism and energy-Russia’s economy pivoting away from crony capitalism and energy
Source: marketwatch.com
URL Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sa ... -happened-to-russia-2015-04-07
Published: Apr 7, 2015
Author: Matthew Lynn
Post Date: 2015-04-07 16:29:09 by Pericles
Keywords: Russia
Views: 2440
Comments: 30

Matthew Lynn's London EyeGet

Opinion: Sanctions, drop in oil price best things that ever happened to Russia

Published: Apr 7, 2015 12:18 p.m. ET

Russia’s economy pivoting away from crony capitalism and energy

A round of punitive sanctions designed to cripple the economy. A collapse in the price of its key commodity. A currency in freefall and a central bank hiking rates to emergency levels while a corrupt, authoritarian government embarks on foreign adventures at potentially huge expense. For the whole of 2014, the Russian economy was the most toxic in the world, with one calamity coming hard after another.

But here is something nobody expected. In the first quarter of this year, Russia was doing a bit better than anyone could have forecast. We learned last week that the economy managed to grow by 0.4% in the latest quarter, compared to the zero growth or the outright recession that most economists had pencilled in. The ruble USDRUB, -0.86% is the best-performing currency of the last three months. Even the Moscow stock index has started to recover.

In reality, sanctions and a fall in the oil price might have been the best thing to have happened to Russia since the invention of double-glazing. Why? Because the problem for a country rich in resources and well-educated, creative people has been an over-reliance on energy, and a tight-knit kleptocracy that distributes the wealth it generates. It has failed to create its own industrial economy.

But with sanctions keeping out imports, and the oil wealth drying up, it might be forced to do so — and paradoxically that might lead to a stronger recovery.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 24.

#1. To: A Pole (#0)

Free Trade is for suckers....

Pericles  posted on  2015-04-07   16:29:27 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Pericles, A Pole, All (#1)

Free Trade is for suckers....

So there should be no free trade among the 50 states in the U.S.?

SOSO  posted on  2015-04-07   16:44:09 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: SOSO (#2)

50 states are compatible and similar. Free trade between diverse economies can be destructive.

A Pole  posted on  2015-04-07   17:42:35 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: A Pole (#3)

50 states are compatible and similar. Free trade between diverse economies can be destructive.

The states are only compatible because of the overarching Federal government laws. FYI society and cultural norms in CA are vastly different from those in Texas.

In what way(s) can free trade be destructive?

SOSO  posted on  2015-04-07   23:58:14 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: SOSO (#5)

FYI society and cultural norms in CA are vastly different from those in Texas.

Hmm, what about Texas and Yunnan?

A Pole  posted on  2015-04-08   2:56:10 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: A Pole, SOSO (#8)

As A Pole pointed out free trade with "like and like" is not a problem.

EU free trade with the USA. Sure. Canada? Sure. Mexico? Not so much due to their poverty and poor law infrastructure and with China? Suicidal.

Pericles  posted on  2015-04-08   10:45:06 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: Pericles, Soso (#9)

As A Pole pointed out free trade with "like and like" is not a problem.

EU free trade with the USA. Sure. Canada? Sure. Mexico? Not so much due to their poverty and poor law infrastructure and with China? Suicidal.

You are incredibily mtopic in your view of the world and in your thought process. What about the North and South after the Civil War? Of the U.S. and England after the Revolution? Exactly what is "kike and like". Is it current"economic status? Societal values and morality? Is it race? Religion? Is the man in Yunnan fundamentally different than the man in Kountze? Now there are clear exception, namely the ISIS mentality. But by and large in theory free trade benefits everyone. Again, the failing is in human nature not in the philosophy of free trade. It is abundantly clear that when free trade works is allowed to work unencumbered by human failings it works better than anything our economic mechanism.

SOSO  posted on  2015-04-08   10:59:56 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: SOSO (#11)

But by and large in theory free trade benefits everyone.

Who proved that bull crap?

rlk  posted on  2015-04-08   11:57:23 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: rlk (#12)

But by and large in theory free trade benefits everyone.

Who proved that bull crap?

Why the U.S.A. every day with free trade among the 50 states. You need some edgikation, Boy.

SOSO  posted on  2015-04-08   11:59:09 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: SOSO, rlk (#13) (Edited)

Why the U.S.A. every day with free trade among the 50 states. You need some edgikation, Boy.

The USA imposed trade tariffs when it was founded. Internally, federal taxes re- distribute the wealth caused by imbalance of state to state trade and such a policy is not possible in an international system.

Pericles  posted on  2015-04-08   12:05:39 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: Pericles, rlk, A Pole (#14)

Internally, federal taxes re- distribute the wealth caused by imbalance of state to state trade and such a policy is not possible in an international system.

You too need some edgikation, Boy. Do you know the extent of FEDERAL taxation at the founding of the country and for many, many decades beyond? HINT: Minimal.

It wasn't until the passage of Prohibition that the Fed got wise to dipping into the pockets of John Q. Citizen.

Truly, you need to refresh your education (I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt that you had one).

SOSO  posted on  2015-04-08   12:20:09 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: SOSO, rlk, A Pole (#16)

It wasn't until the passage of Prohibition that the Fed got wise to dipping into the pockets of John Q. Citizen.

Free trade before WW2 reduced tarrif incomes which led to the switch in income tacxes.

Pericles  posted on  2015-04-08   17:00:18 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#19. To: Pericles, rlk, A Pole (#17)

Free trade before WW2 reduced tarrif incomes which led to the switch in income tacxes.

Are you kidding? Wow, I truly underestimated your ignorance of the history of your country. Here are the facts:

From 1873-1893 the was no individual Federal Income tax.

In 1894 an idividual did not pay a penny in Federal Income tax on anything less than $4,000 in then current income (i.e. - nominal dollars). Thereafter the tax rate was 2% on anything above $4,000.

From 1895-1912 there was no individual Federal Income tax.

From 1913-1915 the tax rate was 1% of the first $20,000 in then current income (i.e. - nominal dollars) rising to 2% from $20,000-50,000). In 1916 the tax rate was raised to 2% on the $20,000 (over $420,000 in 2013 dollars) or less, 3% on $20,000-40,000, 4% on $40,000-60,000.

In 1917 the tax rate was INCREASED to 2% on the first $2,000 (about $35,900 in 2013dollars) steadily increasing to 16% for $40,000-60,000. In 1918 the tax scheduled ramped up again to 6% of the first $4,000 (About $60,800 in 2013 dollars) steadily increasing to 35% at $50,000 and 40% at $60,000 (about $770,000 in 2013). By 1920 it was slightly reduced to 4% on the first $4,000 of nominal income (abot $45,900 in 2013 dollars) steadily ramping up to 31% at to $50,000 and 36% at $60,000.

In 1924 the brackets were reduced to 4% on the first $4,000 (about $53,700 in 2013 dollars) steadily rising to 23% at $50,000 and 26% at $58,000. In 1929, the beginning of the Great Depression Era rates declined to 1.5% of the first $4,000 (about $53,700 in 2013 dollars) on nominal income steadily rising to 18% at $52,000 and 20% at $60,000.

Rates jumped up again in 1932 to 4.0% on the first $4,000 (about $67,000 in 2013 dollars) steadily increasing in small increments to 30% at $50,000 of nominal income and 35% at $60,000.

Rates remained about steady through 1939 when they increased in 1940 to 4% on the first $4,000 (about $65,600 in 2013 dollars) of nominal income steadily rising in small increments to 44% at $50,000 and 48% at $60,000, however the was a 10% Defense surtax over and above the schedule tax rates.

Rates jumped again in 1941 to 10% of the first $2,000 (about $31,200) steadily rising to 59% at $50,000 and 61% at $60,000 of nominal income (about $937,000 in 2013 dollars).

Rates continued to rise through the war years and several years thereafter. By 1950 the rates were 20% on the first $2,000 (about $19,050 in 2013 dollars) steadily rising in small incresments to 72% at $50,000 and 75% at $60,000 (about $571,600 in 2013 dollars).

Shortly after the end of the Korean the tax rates 1954 were still at the level of 20% for the first $4,000 of nominal income (about $17,070 in 2013 dollars), 72% at $50,000 and 75% at $60,000 (about $512,000 in 2013 dollars).

N.B. - WWI was 1914-1918. Prohibition was from 1920-1933. WWII was 1939- 1945 with the U.S. formally declaring war in 1941. The Korean War was 1950- 1953.

Clearly the most rapid ramp up of Federal Income taxes was the period of 1917- 1928 the period from just before WWI ended and Prohibition started and continued ion into the Depression of 1929.

The next big run up in rates occurred started in 1939 and lasted through the end of the Korean War and a few years thereafter.

Free trade had nothing to do with either run up period. For the overwhelming most part the U.S. was a protectionist nation from its founding through 1934 long after the run up in taxes in 1917-1928. It wasn't until the late 1950s that the U.S. started to advocate less global protectionism and more Free Trade.

Yet some degree of protectionism is still the norm throughout the world. Most developed nations still maintain agricultural tariffs. From 1820 to 1980, the average tariffs on manufactures in twelve industrial countries ranged from 11 to 32%.

So lets look at U.S.tax rates since the 1950s, shall we?

Rates started to decline in 1955 and continued to do so through the 1960's. By 1970 the rates were 14% of the first $1,000 of nominal income steadily rising in small increments to 50% at $52,000 and 53% at $64,000 (about $342,700 in 2013 dollars).

By 1980 the rates were 0% on the first $3,400 steadily rising to just 49% at $60,000 (about $167,200 in 2013 dollars).

Gooooooooolly, Mr. Ed, the facts still do not support your contention that Free Trade led to increased individual Federal income taxes in the U.S.

What do you say to all of this now?

SOSO  posted on  2015-04-08   23:08:03 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: SOSO (#19) (Edited)

Free trade before WW2

Free trade before WW1 that is. Sorry for the typo.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/wwi-100th-anniversary-how-global-trade-changed- forever-1456773

The historian Niall Ferguson wrote that "the sinking of the Lusitania also symbolised the end of the first age of globalisation". And while not everyone agrees on the exact date, most acknowledge that WWI radically changed the course of global trade for decades to come.

How great was globalization for it to lead to the hell of the WW1 that pretty much set us up for the Nazis, the commies and WW2?

Pericles  posted on  2015-04-09   0:30:43 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#24. To: Pericles (#20)

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/wwi-100th-anniversary-how-global-trade-changed- forever-1456773

The link does not work.

SOSO  posted on  2015-04-09   22:28:12 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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