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Title: Let’s Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: He’s Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win
Source:
FiveThirtyEight Politics
URL Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features ... treme-and-too-disliked-to-win/
Published: Mar 23, 2015
Author: Harry Enten
Post Date: 2015-03-23 15:57:49 by Jameson
Keywords: cruz, extreme, disliked
Views: 24009
Comments: 151
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s newly minted presidential campaign is the media equivalent of a juicy rib-eye that robbers use to distract a guard dog during a heist. He’ll get a ton of media attention, and he’ll get to spread his message — which may be all that Cruz is after — but Cruz almost certainly has no shot of winning the nomination, according to every indicator that predicts success in presidential primaries. First, Cruz doesn’t have enough support from party bigwigs. To win the Republican or Democratic nomination, you need the backing of at least some of the party apparatus. At a minimum, your fellow party members shouldn’t hate you. Otherwise, you end up getting the Newt Gingrich 2012 treatment. That is, you get pounced on the moment you’re seen as a threat to win the nomination.
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#59. To: Vicomte13 (#43)
Dems are also corrupt crony capitalist incompetents. BUT WORSE. Moreover, at least a good 50% of Pubbies are pro-Life, whereas, 0% of Dems are.
Actually, you are an actually incurable communicable disease.
By nominating and electing any conservative such as Ted Cruz, the moderate Party PTB would risk being replaced by conservatives. By nominating a moderate, they ensure that no conservative has any claim to fame demonstrating the lack of merit in their moderate or liberal policies. Their primary motivation is to remain in control of the levers of power within the party. That purpose is better served by a losing Ford, Dole, McCain, Romney, or the like, than a winning conservative. The corporate donors do not care if conservatives stay home. Big business likes big government. The two parties in D.C. are in the business of selling tax breaks and government contracts. Big business are the buyers. The American taxpayer pays the bill. Best explanation of the party dynamics and political reality I've seen. It would also validate the notion that the USA is indeed no longer representative, constitutional Republic, but a farce, a charade.
Atta boy! Standing on the principles of quicksand, and casting your vote on which way the wind happens to be blowing.
And hopefully roll back a lot of 'satanism.' The next GOP nominee must come out strong on protecting human life in the womb. Not just words as 'words are just wind' but with a plan of action.
"In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth." (Genesis 1:1)
Sometimes a bright light has to shine to scatter the cockroaches. Cruz gave us some of that light yesterday. More to follow to see if he throws back the entire curtain to let the light in. Also, will the comatose American electorate even comprehend such light? The very soul of this nation is at stake.
"In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth." (Genesis 1:1)
Yep. And this is exactly why the establishment RNC, DNC, PTB, Hollywood, and liberal media all fear Cruz. Also, will the comatose American electorate even comprehend such light? Depends on how effective the propaganda and character assassination is. The very soul of this nation is at stake. Definitely on the line for 2016. No one but Cruz shakes things up the way they need to be shaken.
Heh...(goes without saying. Wouldn't want to be accused of "intolerance" toward satanists.) The next GOP nominee must come out strong on protecting human life in the womb. Not just words as 'words are just wind' but with a plan of action. I agree on its merit, but I don't see that issue creating a tactical advantage during the campaign. Let's win first, then (like the Dems) start lowering the boom on moral issues, like preborn-murder by either reinforcing States' Rights, dismissing Leftist circuit court judges, and thru conservative SCOTUS appointments.
No, they're not worse. They're just different. The Republicans gave us Roe v. Wade and Casey, O'Connor, Kennedy and Souter. And Kelo. And by not filibustering, they also gave us Ginsburg and Kagan and Sotomayor, etc. The Democrats would have filibustered people like that (coming in the other direction). Republicans don't. They enable. Which means they're every bit as bad. Also, Republicans lose wars.
Words are wind, and the Republicans are windbags. It's nice to have Cruz in the ring, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.
Heh heh....you bet. Actually I really don't care much for political parties or labels like "conservative" or "liberal" This style thinking is limiting, divisive, and antique. IMHO
"we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie.
And by not filibustering, they also gave us Ginsburg and Kagan and Sotomayor, etc. Yes, I hear ya, but you're making the mistake of confusing the RNC statist stranglehold on the GOP with the rest of the party. Do you think the Bushes, Dole, Romney, Boehner, McConnell, Lott, McCain, Graham, etal are just coincidental faces of the GOP? They run powerful committees and bury conservative Pubbies from power in the Senate/House.
I guess you don't much care for defining a person or party by their respective words, deeds, actions, life philosophy, or agendas either. That's the reason for party or labels, aka "branding." This style thinking is limiting, divisive, and antique. IMHO It's a necessary means of discernment or judgment. Is in your opinion discernment or judgement....irrelevant?
When they do, blame it on those who are in power and their corruption and loyalty to their industrial/banking/globalist Puppetmeister interests. You'll note Reagan forged ZERO wars during his eight years in office.
Outspoken Black ESPN commentator Stephen A. Smith had some interesting commentary in an address at Vanderbilt University in which he opined that he would like to see Blacks, in just one election, all vote Republican. That would be a wakeup call for the liberals. The Black vote is taken for granted by the Dems. ESPN analyst Stephen A. Smith reaffirmed his view that African Americans should stop monolithically supporting Democrats in every election and instead make both major parties compete for their vote. The often flamboyant Smith is perhaps best known for his intense and some would say obnoxious back-and-forth with the equally outspoken Skip Bayless on First Take, which airs five mornings a week on ESPN. Smith, a registered independent, has been inching his way into commentary about politics and other social issues. You may also remember that ESPN suspended him last year for controversial comments about domestic violence. He recently found himself engulfed in another controversy, this time over comments made about the NFL Philadelphia Eagles. Stephen A. subsequently rejected any racial basis for his criticism of head coach Chip Kelly’s personnel decisions. Earlier this week, in a Vanderbilt University symposium, Smith proposed that every black American vote Republican in one election. In his speech, he also correctly noted that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 would never have passed without the support of Republican U.S. senators. In fact, Republican votes in the chamber were necessary to overcome a filibuster conducted by, among others, Sen. Robert Byrd, a West Virginia Democrat, who was also a former KKK member. In an interview with CNN, Smith returned to the subject of bloc voting by blacks. He insisted that Democrats take the black vote for granted, a phenomenon which the black community has allowed, while Republicans ignore the black vote because they feel it is pointless to go after it. Democrats have successfully demonized the GOP such that “we look at the Republican party, I’m not talking about every single one of us, of course, but the vast majority of black Americans look at the Republican party as the enemy; we look at the Democratic party, even tacitly, as our support base, and as a result, we are very transparent in our support for them,” Smith declared. The typical result of this historical voting trend is that the Democrats have a license to take African Americans for granted, while the Republicans have a license to summarily dismiss that same community, Stephen A. Smith explained. Against this backdrop, the ESPN and Sirius XM host and former Philadelphia Inquirer columnist observed that both political parties are competing for the Hispanic vote, which, in contrast, is considered up for grabs. During the exchange, he also denied that he was advocating for a further balkanization of American politics. In December, 2013, Smith said that “it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever” for the black community to ostracize black conservatives.
Actually I really don't care much for political parties or labels like "conservative" or "liberal" Maybe I wasn't clear, allow me to re-phrase... I don't believe that everyone who is identified as a "republican" (or other designation) will all respond or act in the same manner in any given situation. Everyone responds differently. The label or (party label) is irrelevant.
"we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie.
In 1943, there was no such thing as a "Good German".
Good find and interesting read. You have accomplished a great thing today:)
"For the law was given through Moses, but grace and truth came through Jesus Christ." (John 1:17)
I'm not going to let the Republicans off the hook. There are no "Good Republicans". There are some people with good ideas and values who have mistakenly aligned themselves with the Republican Party. As long as they remain aligned with that party, they will be neutered and rendered ineffective by the corrupt crony capitalist contingent that has dominated that party since 1868. It's not going to change, ever, and I see no value in lying to myself and pretending that it will. The Democrats are babykillers and the Republicans are crapweasels. There may have been "Good Germans" by somebody's definition, somewhere, but it's 1943 and I'm a pilot over Germany: they're all bad. I'm not going to be discriminating, trying to find the good, because I don't care. They're the enemy, and they're all bad. Republicans and Democrats have been so consistently bad, for so long, they have exhausted any willingness on my part to expend any further energy trying to find kernels of edible corn in their poop. Crapweasels and babykillers. They can all go die in a hole and we would be better for it.
Nah, more like Jeffersonian penicillin, Domina
If the edification of the body of Christ you put on display here is typical of the members of your "church", I'm glad I'm an infidel and not a member.
Why can't some people figure out that being a moderate (believing the lies of "BOTH" parties) is voting for your own demise??
“Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rapidly promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.”
One thing is for sure he pissed off the MSM and the Leftards really bad yesterday. Even Moonbeam climbed out of his grave to say Cruz was a dumbass for being a climate change denier!! LOL...
“Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rapidly promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.”
Some people? Please, your passive-aggressive approach is boring. On the other hand, believing the lies of only one "party" is the epitome of ignorance......
"we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie.
You can compromise on policy, but NEVER on principles. The Democrats never compromise unless it advances their agenda. Republicans compromise in hopes that the next time they want something, they will get a "wink and nod".
Voters decide elections, even primaries. The MSM will mean NOTHING if 80% of those supporting conservative values turn out. The goal, turn them on and get them to turn out at the polls.
Ah poor baby... “Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rapidly promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.”
Which kinda person would I like to be? A person who believes everybody's lies or a person who believes some peoples lies and another who doesn't believe anybody's lies... Hmmmmm... You know I'm actually kinda surprised you didn't say that people who don't believe any of the lies are the stupidest ones!!!
“Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rapidly promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.”
The way I see it is that we have tried moderate party establishment types with Romney McCain ,and before that Bob Dole. Didn't work out so well. I am not sur Cruz is the best candidate . His opening salvo was brilliant . It will frame the debate throughout the primary season. My reservations are that Cruz is a conservative version of the emperor in some ways. He doesn't have executive experience ;even his legislative record is thin. He has little foreign policy experience. In this cycle I think foreign policy will be a determinant . If I were to go to the polls today and have to choose from the probable field ,I'd most likely go with a principled conservative governor (and the GOP bench has quite a few to choose from ) . So far the declared field is Cruz and Jebbabubba Bush . Between those 2 ,Cruz is the clear choice .
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
How about settling for competence.
Your typical mealymouthed rhetoric on the subject. Granting even that Republicans are some "party of the rich" (when 2/3 of the billionaires in America are active Dem partisans), when did "greedy" become just as bad as "baby murderers". You say these things over and over again. It is an established pattern in your posts, not some isolated instance. And your next response will be to portray the GOP's opposition to abortion as being somehow worse or just more dishonest than the Dems' sheer bloodlust for abortion mills.
Please cite your source - thanks
"we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie.
You are putting process over substance.
Oh I know I've heard that many times. But if he believes it it is good to have one more on our side. You have any favorite candidates yet?
Killing the infection of WHAT then? The adherents of and Gospel of Jesus Christ, Deist-Riddler? Interesting admission.
Suddenly you're insulted and offended after having constantly promoted and shilled for your Jeffersonian cult, ridiculed Bible-believing Christians, and the Gospel of Jesus Christ on several threads? Rich. Here's a memo worth considering: Pretending your faith in the Gospel of Jesus Christ is adversely affected only by *my* ragging on you does not exonerate you from the Truth or Judgment Day. Free Will allows you to choose your own eternal fate -- whether as a Cultist of Jefferson or "member of the body of Christ." Your joy as a proud "infidel" here is duly noted. Infinitely worse than that is not what I think, but the Lord Himself. Will HE vouch for you and say he "knew" you? Or will Jefferson suffice as your Savior?
Stephen A. -- an absolute enigma. I don't really know exactly what he thinks. I get the feeling he doesn't either. Or rather he's just engaging in some damage control and theatrics.
that's ok .I begin always backing the best candidate . They are usually the ones not nominated ,and I end up voting for the last one standing . What this country cannot afford is another 4-8 years of nanny-state progressive Fabian socialism . So if a Scott Walker is selected rather than a Ted Cruz. That's who I'll vote for .
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
MOST conservatives/Republicans WILL base their life philosophy and ethics on absolutes of morality, individual liberty, and self-preservation. MOST liberal/Democrats will base their life philosophy and ethics on feelings, moral relativism, and group-think "fairness." The label or (party label) is irrelevant. Is it? Don't labels define us based on either the truth or by whomever controls the political narrative based on propaganda? In our culture's case, who would deny that this arbiter is decidedly an anti-Christian, liberal-socialist philosophy?
You can't be drawing this analogy as one indicts ALL Republics/conservatives as "Good Germans" when its conservative battling for Life and Liberty EVERY day. Or are you??
There's this thing called Google. You should check it out. Politico: Blue billionaires on top Donors who gave mostly or exclusively to Democrats held down 52 of the top 100 spots, including that of the biggest by far – retired San Francisco hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer, who spent $74 million helping Democratic candidates and groups. Given its reliable liberal tilt, Politico went on to portray all the secret-donor PACs as overwhelmingly Republican, based on very sketchy infomation. It's the usual they-all-do-it-but-Republicans-are-so-much-more-icky that Politico is notorious for.
Comments (100 - 151) not displayed.
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/LatestDemocrats are exultant babykillers. Republicans are corrupt crony capitalist incompetents.
#60. To: VxH (#50)
I grow on people like a fungus.
#61. To: nolu chan (#48)
The mission of the Party PTB is to (1) protect their position as the Party PTB and (2) elect one of their own as President.
#62. To: Jameson (#46)
I have voted for republicans, democrats, libertarians, non-affiliated.....etc it all depends on the circumstances at that time...
#63. To: Liberator, Vicomte13 (#57)
He'll roll back a lot of recent regulations, over-officiousness, Statism, and fascism if he succeeds
#64. To: nolu chan, liberator, tomder55 (#48)
By nominating and electing any conservative such as Ted Cruz, the moderate Party PTB would risk being replaced by conservatives. By nominating a moderate, they ensure that no conservative has any claim to fame demonstrating the lack of merit in their moderate or liberal policies. Their primary motivation is to remain in control of the levers of power within the party. That purpose is better served by a losing Ford, Dole, McCain, Romney, or the like, than a winning conservative.
#65. To: redleghunter (#64)
Sometimes a bright light has to shine to scatter the cockroaches. Cruz gave us some of that light yesterday. More to follow to see if he throws back the entire curtain to let the light in.
#66. To: redleghunter (#63)
hopefully roll back a lot of 'satanism.'
#67. To: Liberator (#59)
Dems are also corrupt crony capitalist incompetents. BUT WORSE.
#68. To: redleghunter (#63)
#69. To: Liberator (#62)
Standing on the principles of quicksand, and casting your vote on which way the wind happens to be blowing.
#70. To: Vicomte13 (#67)
The Republicans gave us Roe v. Wade and Casey, O'Connor, Kennedy and Souter. And Kelo.
#71. To: Jameson (#69)
(Edited)
Actually I really don't care much for political parties or labels like "conservative" or "liberal"
#72. To: Vicomte13 (#67)
Republicans lose wars.
#73. To: redleghunter (#64)
Cruz gave us some of that light yesterday.
ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith To Black Americans: Republicans Aren’t The Enemy
“Then we end up finding ourselves devoid of any representation whatsoever because nobody is competing to garner our vote and our support … let’s not be so transparent in our support for one party over another when that does not appear to be working for us. Force [politicians] to flatter us…”
#74. To: Liberator (#71)
I guess you don't much care for defining a person or party by their respective words, deeds, actions, life philosophy, or agendas either.
#75. To: Liberator (#70)
but you're making the mistake of confusing the RNC statist stranglehold on the GOP with the rest of the party.
#76. To: nolu chan (#73)
#77. To: Liberator (#71)
#78. To: Liberator (#60)
(Edited)
#79. To: Liberator (#60)
Actually, you are an actually incurable communicable disease.
#80. To: Liberator (#62)
Atta boy! Standing on the principles of quicksand, and casting your vote on which way the wind happens to be blowing.
#81. To: redleghunter (#64)
Sometimes a bright light has to shine to scatter the cockroaches. Cruz gave us some of that light yesterday. More to follow to see if he throws back the entire curtain to let the light in.
#82. To: CZ82 (#80)
Why can't some people figure out that being a moderate (believing the lies of "BOTH" parties) is voting for your own demise??
#83. To: Pericles (#52)
#84. To: Liberator (#70)
#85. To: Jameson (#82)
#86. To: Jameson (#82)
On the other hand, believing the lies of only one "party" is the epitome of ignorance......
#87. To: redleghunter, nolu chan, liberator, (#64)
#88. To: jeremiad (#83)
You can compromise on policy, but NEVER on principles. The Democrats never compromise unless it advances their agenda. Republicans compromise in hopes that the next time they want something, they will get a "wink and nod".
#89. To: Vicomte13 (#77)
The Democrats are babykillers and the Republicans are crapweasels. There may have been "Good Germans" by somebody's definition, somewhere, but it's 1943 and I'm a pilot over Germany: they're all bad. I'm not going to be discriminating, trying to find the good, because I don't care. They're the enemy, and they're all bad.
#90. To: TooConservative (#89)
(when 2/3 of the billionaires in America are active Dem partisans)
#91. To: tomder55 (#87)
I'd most likely go with a principled conservative governor
#92. To: Liberator (#55)
The Riddler ripped the slogan off.
#93. To: VxH (#78)
"[I'm] more like Jeffersonian penicillin."
#94. To: VxH (#79)
If the edification of the body of Christ you put on display here is typical of the members of your "church", I'm glad I'm an infidel and not a member.
#95. To: nolu chan (#73)
ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith To Black Americans: Republicans Aren’t The Enemy
#96. To: A K A Stone (#91)
#97. To: Jameson (#74)
I don't believe that everyone who is identified as a "republican" (or other designation) will all respond or act in the same manner in any given situation. Everyone responds differently.
#98. To: Vicomte13 (#75)
In 1943, there was no such thing as a "Good German".
#99. To: Jameson (#90)
Please cite your source - thanks
The 100 biggest donors of 2014 gave nearly $174 million to Democrats, compared to more than $140 million to Republicans, according to a POLITICO analysis of reports filed with the Federal Election Commission and Internal Revenue Service.
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