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Trump Is Planning to Send Kill Teams to Mexico to Take Out Cartel Leaders The Great Falling Away in the Church is Here | Tim Dilena Status: Not Logged In; Sign In United States News See other United States News Articles Title: Let’s Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: He’s Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win Source: FiveThirtyEight Politics URL Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features ... treme-and-too-disliked-to-win/ Published: Mar 23, 2015 Author: Harry Enten Post Date: 2015-03-23 15:57:49 by Jameson Keywords: cruz, extreme, disliked Views: 23276 Comments: 151 Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s newly minted presidential campaign is the media equivalent of a juicy rib-eye that robbers use to distract a guard dog during a heist. He’ll get a ton of media attention, and he’ll get to spread his message — which may be all that Cruz is after — but Cruz almost certainly has no shot of winning the nomination, according to every indicator that predicts success in presidential primaries. First, Cruz doesn’t have enough support from party bigwigs. To win the Republican or Democratic nomination, you need the backing of at least some of the party apparatus. At a minimum, your fellow party members shouldn’t hate you. Otherwise, you end up getting the Newt Gingrich 2012 treatment. That is, you get pounced on the moment you’re seen as a threat to win the nomination. Click for Full Text! Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest #1. To: Jameson (#0) The bar for Presidential credentials was lowered by the current occupant...Obola. I will enjoy all the libs stating "he's a junior senator." "What foreign policy experience does he have?" Well they did not ask that of Obola (only lib that did was Biden in the primaries). "In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth." (Genesis 1:1) redleghunter  posted on  2015-03-23   16:03:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #2. To: redleghunter (#1) Your comment is appreciated......do you have any thoughts on the content of the article? "we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie. Jameson  posted on  2015-03-23   16:13:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #3. To: Jameson (#2) Cruz is likely far too extreme ideologically to win the nomination. The Republican party has a habit of nominating relatively moderate candidates (see John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012). That’s especially the case when the party has been out of the White House for more than one term. A Cruz nomination wouldn’t just break this streak; it would throw it off a 100-floor balcony and drop a piano on it. I agree with the little or no support of the party 'big wigs.' You can't get far without campaign funding. On the quoted above I disagree with the reasoning. Look at how those elections worked out for the GOP with moderates. Some conservatives stayed home and it showed in the results. "In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth." (Genesis 1:1) redleghunter  posted on  2015-03-23   16:34:39 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #4. To: Jameson (#0) (Edited) First, Cruz doesn’t have enough support from party bigwigs. That didn't stop him from becoming a U.S. Senator. His lack of support from the crony RINOcracy is a positive feature. Cruz is a 2nd generation American whose family had direct experience with the collective cluster frack that unfolded in Cuba; and that fact undoubtedly disturbs the Oligarchic parasites who funded and benefited from that collective craftsmanship. Cruz or lose! VxH  posted on  2015-03-23   16:45:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #5. To: Jameson (#0) FiveThirtyEight is right, as usual. Though everyone except Cruz and Cruz fanboys already knows this, and even the former might and just wants something from a vanity campaign. GeorgiaConservative  posted on  2015-03-23   16:54:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #6. To: Jameson (#0) That is, you get pounced on the moment you’re seen as a threat to win the nomination. Cruz has already been fully pounced. He has a certain oily smoothness that reminds me a lot of LBJ. Which isn't such a warm memory. Tooconservative  posted on  2015-03-23   17:42:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #7. To: Jameson (#0) (Edited) Cruz isn't #1 on anyone's list of favorite candidates. Given Cruz vs. Huckabee, social conservatives will go for Huckabee. Given Cruz vs. Paul, libertarians will go for Paul. Given Cruz vs. Lindsey Graham, the neo- con war mongers will go for Graham. Given Cruz vs. Christie, those who want a bombastic, angry fighter will choose Christie (or at least they would have before he sucked up to Obama). On and on... BUT Cruz may be the #2 or #3 choice for several of these groups. Cruz is smart, he may be hoping that the others implode so he can be around as the #2 choice and the only person left standing for everyone who hates Bush. We'll see. cranko  posted on  2015-03-23   17:52:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #8. To: redleghunter (#3) Some conservatives stayed home and it showed in the results. Close to 100 million people didn't vote in 2012 cause both candidates sucked. How many of them were "TRUE" conservatives?? “Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rapidly promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.â€� CZ82  posted on  2015-03-23   18:03:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #9. To: redleghunter (#1) Well they did not ask that of Obola And remember: "NO SLEEPING IN BEDS" err {edit} "WIF SHEETS!" VxH  posted on  2015-03-23   18:20:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #10. To: Jameson (#0) " Let’s Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: He’s Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win " My money says the author is in the bag for Bush Si vis pacem, para bellum Stoner  posted on  2015-03-23   18:50:08 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #11. To: Jameson, redleghunter, GeorgiaConservative, TooConservative, cranko, CZ82, Stoner (#0) (Edited) Extreme is the wrong word - he is a grifter - in his decleration he only mentioned 'conservatives' a lot rather than referring to Americans - to someone with a marketing background like I have that means he is not running for president for real but to boost his power in the conservative base which he then can exploit for money and even retire to do TV shows or what not and serve as someone who can have the power to endorse. All his actions in the senate thus far were publicity stunts to work up the base and serve as talk show radio fodder. Pericles  posted on  2015-03-24   1:57:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #12. To: redleghunter (#1) The bar for Presidential credentials was lowered by the current occupant...Obola. Permanently! And with help from the previous three presidents plus Carter, LBJ, and Kennedy. rlk  posted on  2015-03-24   2:43:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #13. To: Stoner (#10) My money says the author is in the bag for Bush Doubtful......FiveThirtyEight has a very good reputation for being objective... "we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie. Jameson  posted on  2015-03-24   5:30:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #14. To: Pericles (#11) "... he is not running for president for real but to boost his power..." A very good point......which applies to most of the Republicans who are "testing the waters" "we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie. Jameson  posted on  2015-03-24   5:35:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #15. To: VxH (#4) Cruz or lose! Ok. I'm going to ease up on you. Anyone with that slogan can't be all bad. A K A Stone  posted on  2015-03-24   7:02:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #16. To: Pericles (#11) Extreme is the wrong word - he is a grifter - in his decleration he only mentioned 'conservatives' a lot rather than referring to Americans That is because liberals aren't real Americans. They have divorced themselves from the culture and they want to make something different. They support thievery, murder, bullying, and drinking the blood of aborted babies. A K A Stone  posted on  2015-03-24   7:03:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #17. To: A K A Stone (#16) (Edited) Extreme is the wrong word - he is a grifter - in his decleration he only mentioned 'conservatives' a lot rather than referring to Americans That is because liberals aren't real Americans. They have divorced themselves from the culture and they want to make something different. They support thievery, murder, bullying, and drinking the blood of aborted babies. Again, it shows that Cruz is trying to grift the base like you AKA rather than appeal to a broader audience and actually have a chance to win as president. Pericles  posted on  2015-03-24   9:24:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #18. To: Pericles, Jameson, GeorgiaConservative, TooConservative, cranko, CZ82, Stoner (#11) Extreme is the wrong word - he is a grifter - in his decleration he only mentioned 'conservatives' a lot rather than referring to Americans - to someone with a marketing background like I have that means he is not running for president for real but to boost his power in the conservative base which he then can exploit for money and even retire to do TV shows or what not and serve as someone who can have the power to endorse. All his actions in the senate thus far were publicity stunts to work up the base and serve as talk show radio fodder. Or more realistically, he is setting the stage for a future serious run for President. Or perhaps providing the RNC the necessary early 'lightening rod' effect. These things are usually a lot more complicated than we think, but simple to figure out:) So is Cruz serious or is he providing a 'rally the weary troops' cheerleader effect? That's my assessment. He knows in the early polling he is a minority cut of 4%. That might jump a bit in the weeks ahead, until someone else announces a run. A final point is no matter what he is establishing himself early as a power broker. This is what politicians do and why so many people hate politics. Warren is doing the same thing now but using other methods. "In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth." (Genesis 1:1) redleghunter  posted on  2015-03-24   9:32:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #19. To: Jameson (#0) Let’s Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: He’s Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win Let's be serious about the Established Republican Party from the Start: they are too corrupt, too tied to crony capitalism, too militarily incompetent and too disliked to be trusted with power. Most Republican politicians deserve indictment, not re-election. Ted Cruz is a breath of fresh air, but the Republican brand is so utterly toxic, Republicans as a class of people are SUCH walking, talking piles of corrupt fecal matter, that Cruz probably cannot save them. They'll reject him anyway. Vicomte13  posted on  2015-03-24   9:40:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #20. To: Pericles (#17) Again, it shows that Cruz is trying to grift the base like you AKA rather than appeal to a broader audience and actually have a chance to win as president. He is telling the truth of who he is. You sound like one of those people who would suggest lying is a good way to "appeal to a audience". Cruz is right on about everything. To try to appeal to libfags would be to lose his appeal to REAL Americans. A K A Stone  posted on  2015-03-24   9:41:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #21. To: Vicomte13 (#19) They'll reject him anyway. Yes, I think they will. "we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie. Jameson  posted on  2015-03-24   10:00:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #22. To: Jameson (#0) Cruz almost certainly has no shot of winning the nomination, according to every indicator that predicts success in presidential primaries. That's exactly what the pundits said about Reagan... I for one hope Cruz keeps on being underestimated. At a minimum, your fellow party members shouldn’t hate you. Who be that? McStain? McConnell?? The whitebeard, establishment RINOs?? Their numbers are overinflated. These turncoat "bi-partisan" whores can pound salt. Liberator  posted on  2015-03-24   10:05:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #23. To: redleghunter (#1) The bar for Presidential credentials was lowered by the current occupant...Obola. That bar is now...subterranean. As in Hades ;-) I will enjoy all the libs stating "he's a junior senator." "What foreign policy experience does he have?" (Well they did not ask that of Obola.) HA! Yup. Cruz is a man, 0bola a boy. The media will demanding to know what kind of TP Cruz uses...while rummaging through his past like a pack of proctologists. 0bola, not so much. In fact, not at all. Liberator  posted on  2015-03-24   10:09:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #24. To: GeorgiaConservative (#5) Though everyone except Cruz and Cruz fanboys already knows this, and even the former might and just wants something from a vanity campaign. Know what?? Liberator  posted on  2015-03-24   10:10:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #25. To: Liberator (#22) At a minimum, your fellow party members shouldn’t hate you. Who be that? McStain? McConnell?? The whitebeard, establishment RINOs?? Their numbers are overinflated. So....do you really believe that Cruz can be the republican's presidential nominee? - and that this can happen without the support (and money) of the moderates? - please don't compare Cruz to Reagan.... most people liked RR - that is simply not the case with Cruz.... Or - do you expect him to start playing the "kinder, gentler" candidate? "we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie. Jameson  posted on  2015-03-24   10:14:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #26. To: TooConservative (#6) Cruz has already been fully pounced. The desperate guns of Left and Vichy RNC will pound Cruz as though he were Baghdad during the initial Iraq assault. If he survives, he will be a force to be reckoned with. He has a certain oily smoothness that reminds me a lot of LBJ. Which isn't such a warm memory. The only thing those two have in common are...the state of Texas. "Smoothness" -- I guess what you're saying is that you don't quite believe in Cruz's sincerity? "Smoothness" can at times be construed as a complete confidence. It's easy to have became jaded. But why after noting 0bola's totally disingenuous "smoothness" or Slick's? Liberator  posted on  2015-03-24   10:17:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #27. To: Jameson (#25) So....do you really believe that Cruz can be the republican's presidential nominee? - and that this can happen without the support (and money) of the moderates? Yes. Absolutely. I hope you, the moderate'leftist pundits and the establishment-types continue to believe Cruz is unelectable based on "likeability," and impossible to finance. There are far more patriots -- within the general populace, industry, and private sector -- who recognize Cruz is the only anecdote to 0buma's gutting of this nation in every way. THIS is a guy who is laser-focused. Liberator  posted on  2015-03-24   10:22:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #28. To: Jameson (#25) So....do you really believe that Cruz can be the republican's presidential nominee? - and that this can happen without the support (and money) of the moderates? I don't believe that it matters who the Republican nominee is. The Republican brand is too tainted and narrow. No matter who the Republicans run, the Democrats will win the election. Vicomte13  posted on  2015-03-24   10:22:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #29. To: cranko (#7) Cruz isn't #1 on anyone's list of favorite candidates. You really believe that?? The Pubbies are again running a bunch of also-ran RINOs and wishy-washy sell-out moderates. Cruz stands alone as a stud. Cruz is smart, he may be hoping that the others implode.... That's exactly what's going to happen. And the lib media will go ape-sh*t after the smoke clears. REAGAN II. Liberator  posted on  2015-03-24   10:25:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #30. To: cranko aka jwpegler (#7) Cruz isn't #1 on anyone's list of favorite candidates. Given Cruz vs. Huckabee, social conservatives will go for Huckabee. We will do no such thing. Cruz is Number Uno on many peoples list Mr Pegler. A K A Stone  posted on  2015-03-24   10:28:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #31. To: Vicomte13 (#28) I don't believe that it matters who the Republican nominee is. That's too bad because unlike the other puppets, Cruz takes no prisoners and is small gubmint. He is the literal political anecdote to 0buma, which is why you're going to immediately see Cruz pounded from every direction until he's either left standing and stronger, OR too crippled to continue. Liberator  posted on  2015-03-24   10:29:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #32. To: cranko (#7) Cruz is smart, he may be hoping that the others implode so he can be around as the #2 choice and the only person left standing for everyone who hates Bush. We'll see. I think Cruz started yesterday a 15-20 year campaign for President of the USA. It took Reagan longer than that to get there. "In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth." (Genesis 1:1) redleghunter  posted on  2015-03-24   10:41:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #33. To: A K A Stone (#20) He is telling the truth of who he is. You sound like one of those people who would suggest lying is a good way to "appeal to a audience". Cruz is right on about everything. To try to appeal to libfags would be to lose his appeal to REAL Americans. That approach would be great if the USA has a parlimentary system of govt. Pericles  posted on  2015-03-24   10:43:32 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #34. To: Liberator (#27) "...There are far more patriots -- within the general populace, industry, and private sector -- who recognize Cruz is the only anecdote to 0buma's gutting of this nation in every way...." 1. So what makes one a "patriot?" 2. If Mr. Cruz is the only "anecdote" what will the "patriots" do if he (god forbid) does not become the republican's nominee? "we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie. Jameson  posted on  2015-03-24   10:56:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #35. To: Jameson (#34) 1. So what makes one a "patriot?" A strict Constitutionalist and America-Firster. 2. If Mr. Cruz is the only "anecdote" what will the "patriots" do if he (god forbid) does not become the republican's nominee? That dire scenario remains to be seen. I suppose....succumb to the escalated Police State and Big Gubmint, and further destruction of the US Constitution. Liberator  posted on  2015-03-24   11:06:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #36. To: Jameson (#34) 2. If Mr. Cruz is the only "anecdote" what will the "patriots" do if he (god forbid) does not become the republican's nominee? 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036 A K A Stone  posted on  2015-03-24   11:13:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #37. To: Liberator (#35) I suppose....succumb to the escalated Police State and Big Gubmint, and further destruction of the US Constitution. well, yeah of course.... but in the short term....will you vote for Bush? "we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie. Jameson  posted on  2015-03-24   11:20:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #38. To: A K A Stone (#36) 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036 well, yeah of course.... but in the short term....will you vote for Bush? "we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie. Jameson  posted on  2015-03-24   11:21:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #39. To: Jameson (#37) in the short term....will you vote for Bush? And a vote for another NWO Bush is different than a Dem....HOW?? Liberator  posted on  2015-03-24   11:31:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #40. To: Jameson (#37) Will you vote for a Dem over a Pubbie in any case? Liberator  posted on  2015-03-24   11:31:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #41. To: A K A Stone (#36) 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036 By then? "It's dead, Jim." Liberator  posted on  2015-03-24   11:32:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply         .       .       . Comments (42 - 151) not displayed. Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest

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