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Title: Let’s Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: He’s Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win
Source: FiveThirtyEight Politics
URL Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features ... treme-and-too-disliked-to-win/
Published: Mar 23, 2015
Author: Harry Enten
Post Date: 2015-03-23 15:57:49 by Jameson
Keywords: cruz, extreme, disliked
Views: 27105
Comments: 151

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s newly minted presidential campaign is the media equivalent of a juicy rib-eye that robbers use to distract a guard dog during a heist. He’ll get a ton of media attention, and he’ll get to spread his message — which may be all that Cruz is after — but Cruz almost certainly has no shot of winning the nomination, according to every indicator that predicts success in presidential primaries.

First, Cruz doesn’t have enough support from party bigwigs. To win the Republican or Democratic nomination, you need the backing of at least some of the party apparatus. At a minimum, your fellow party members shouldn’t hate you. Otherwise, you end up getting the Newt Gingrich 2012 treatment. That is, you get pounced on the moment you’re seen as a threat to win the nomination.

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 144.

#1. To: Jameson (#0)

The bar for Presidential credentials was lowered by the current occupant...Obola.

I will enjoy all the libs stating "he's a junior senator." "What foreign policy experience does he have?"

Well they did not ask that of Obola (only lib that did was Biden in the primaries).

redleghunter  posted on  2015-03-23   16:03:25 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: redleghunter (#1)

Your comment is appreciated......do you have any thoughts on the content of the article?

Jameson  posted on  2015-03-23   16:13:23 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Jameson (#2)

Cruz is likely far too extreme ideologically to win the nomination. The Republican party has a habit of nominating relatively moderate candidates (see John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012). That’s especially the case when the party has been out of the White House for more than one term. A Cruz nomination wouldn’t just break this streak; it would throw it off a 100-floor balcony and drop a piano on it.

I agree with the little or no support of the party 'big wigs.' You can't get far without campaign funding.

On the quoted above I disagree with the reasoning. Look at how those elections worked out for the GOP with moderates. Some conservatives stayed home and it showed in the results.

redleghunter  posted on  2015-03-23   16:34:39 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#48. To: redleghunter, Jameson (#3)

Look at how those elections worked out for the GOP with moderates. Some conservatives stayed home and it showed in the results.

It depends on one's viewpoint. The mission of the Party PTB is to (1) protect their position as the Party PTB and (2) elect one of their own as President.

By nominating and electing any conservative such as Ted Cruz, the moderate Party PTB would risk being replaced by conservatives. By nominating a moderate, they ensure that no conservative has any claim to fame demonstrating the lack of merit in their moderate or liberal policies. Their primary motivation is to remain in control of the levers of power within the party. That purpose is better served by a losing Ford, Dole, McCain, Romney, or the like, than a winning conservative.

The corporate donors do not care if conservatives stay home. Big business likes big government. The two parties in D.C. are in the business of selling tax breaks and government contracts. Big business are the buyers. The American taxpayer pays the bill.

nolu chan  posted on  2015-03-24   12:25:56 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#64. To: nolu chan, liberator, tomder55 (#48)

By nominating and electing any conservative such as Ted Cruz, the moderate Party PTB would risk being replaced by conservatives. By nominating a moderate, they ensure that no conservative has any claim to fame demonstrating the lack of merit in their moderate or liberal policies. Their primary motivation is to remain in control of the levers of power within the party. That purpose is better served by a losing Ford, Dole, McCain, Romney, or the like, than a winning conservative.

Sometimes a bright light has to shine to scatter the cockroaches. Cruz gave us some of that light yesterday. More to follow to see if he throws back the entire curtain to let the light in.

Also, will the comatose American electorate even comprehend such light?

The very soul of this nation is at stake.

redleghunter  posted on  2015-03-24   13:13:19 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#73. To: redleghunter (#64)

Cruz gave us some of that light yesterday.

Outspoken Black ESPN commentator Stephen A. Smith had some interesting commentary in an address at Vanderbilt University in which he opined that he would like to see Blacks, in just one election, all vote Republican. That would be a wakeup call for the liberals. The Black vote is taken for granted by the Dems.

http://www.inquisitr.com/1944809/espns-stephen-a-smith-to-black-americans-republicans-arent-the-enemy/

ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith To Black Americans: Republicans Aren’t The Enemy

ESPN analyst Stephen A. Smith reaffirmed his view that African Americans should stop monolithically supporting Democrats in every election and instead make both major parties compete for their vote.

The often flamboyant Smith is perhaps best known for his intense and some would say obnoxious back-and-forth with the equally outspoken Skip Bayless on First Take, which airs five mornings a week on ESPN.

Smith, a registered independent, has been inching his way into commentary about politics and other social issues. You may also remember that ESPN suspended him last year for controversial comments about domestic violence. He recently found himself engulfed in another controversy, this time over comments made about the NFL Philadelphia Eagles. Stephen A. subsequently rejected any racial basis for his criticism of head coach Chip Kelly’s personnel decisions.

Earlier this week, in a Vanderbilt University symposium, Smith proposed that every black American vote Republican in one election.

In his speech, he also correctly noted that the Civil Rights Act of 1964 would never have passed without the support of Republican U.S. senators. In fact, Republican votes in the chamber were necessary to overcome a filibuster conducted by, among others, Sen. Robert Byrd, a West Virginia Democrat, who was also a former KKK member.

In an interview with CNN, Smith returned to the subject of bloc voting by blacks. He insisted that Democrats take the black vote for granted, a phenomenon which the black community has allowed, while Republicans ignore the black vote because they feel it is pointless to go after it.

Democrats have successfully demonized the GOP such that “we look at the Republican party, I’m not talking about every single one of us, of course, but the vast majority of black Americans look at the Republican party as the enemy; we look at the Democratic party, even tacitly, as our support base, and as a result, we are very transparent in our support for them,” Smith declared.

The typical result of this historical voting trend is that the Democrats have a license to take African Americans for granted, while the Republicans have a license to summarily dismiss that same community, Stephen A. Smith explained.

“Then we end up finding ourselves devoid of any representation whatsoever because nobody is competing to garner our vote and our support … let’s not be so transparent in our support for one party over another when that does not appear to be working for us. Force [politicians] to flatter us…”

Against this backdrop, the ESPN and Sirius XM host and former Philadelphia Inquirer columnist observed that both political parties are competing for the Hispanic vote, which, in contrast, is considered up for grabs. During the exchange, he also denied that he was advocating for a further balkanization of American politics.

In December, 2013, Smith said that “it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever” for the black community to ostracize black conservatives.

nolu chan  posted on  2015-03-24   13:54:35 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#95. To: nolu chan (#73)

ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith To Black Americans: Republicans Aren’t The Enemy

Stephen A. -- an absolute enigma.

I don't really know exactly what he thinks. I get the feeling he doesn't either. Or rather he's just engaging in some damage control and theatrics.

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   10:28:06 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#144. To: Liberator (#95)

I don't really know exactly what he thinks.

On this issue, I believe he has expressed what he thinks. Blacks voting 95+ percent for Dems, regardless of candidate or what the party does for them, is less productive than making political demands which, if not met, result in a group shift to the opposition.

He did not so much express approval of the wonders of the GOP but disapproval of bootlicking devotion to the Dems.

nolu chan  posted on  2015-03-25   20:29:13 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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