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Title: Let’s Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: He’s Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win
Source: FiveThirtyEight Politics
URL Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features ... treme-and-too-disliked-to-win/
Published: Mar 23, 2015
Author: Harry Enten
Post Date: 2015-03-23 15:57:49 by Jameson
Keywords: cruz, extreme, disliked
Views: 23278
Comments: 151

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s newly minted presidential campaign is the media equivalent of a juicy rib-eye that robbers use to distract a guard dog during a heist. He’ll get a ton of media attention, and he’ll get to spread his message — which may be all that Cruz is after — but Cruz almost certainly has no shot of winning the nomination, according to every indicator that predicts success in presidential primaries.

First, Cruz doesn’t have enough support from party bigwigs. To win the Republican or Democratic nomination, you need the backing of at least some of the party apparatus. At a minimum, your fellow party members shouldn’t hate you. Otherwise, you end up getting the Newt Gingrich 2012 treatment. That is, you get pounced on the moment you’re seen as a threat to win the nomination.

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#97. To: Jameson (#74)

I don't believe that everyone who is identified as a "republican" (or other designation) will all respond or act in the same manner in any given situation. Everyone responds differently.

MOST conservatives/Republicans WILL base their life philosophy and ethics on absolutes of morality, individual liberty, and self-preservation.

MOST liberal/Democrats will base their life philosophy and ethics on feelings, moral relativism, and group-think "fairness."

The label or (party label) is irrelevant.

Is it? Don't labels define us based on either the truth or by whomever controls the political narrative based on propaganda? In our culture's case, who would deny that this arbiter is decidedly an anti-Christian, liberal-socialist philosophy?

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   10:38:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#98. To: Vicomte13 (#75)

In 1943, there was no such thing as a "Good German".

You can't be drawing this analogy as one indicts ALL Republics/conservatives as "Good Germans" when its conservative battling for Life and Liberty EVERY day. Or are you??

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   10:40:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#99. To: Jameson (#90)

Please cite your source - thanks

There's this thing called Google. You should check it out.

Politico: Blue billionaires on top

The 100 biggest donors of 2014 gave nearly $174 million to Democrats, compared to more than $140 million to Republicans, according to a POLITICO analysis of reports filed with the Federal Election Commission and Internal Revenue Service.

Donors who gave mostly or exclusively to Democrats held down 52 of the top 100 spots, including that of the biggest by far – retired San Francisco hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer, who spent $74 million helping Democratic candidates and groups.

Given its reliable liberal tilt, Politico went on to portray all the secret-donor PACs as overwhelmingly Republican, based on very sketchy infomation. It's the usual they-all-do-it-but-Republicans-are-so-much-more-icky that Politico is notorious for.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-03-25   10:41:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#100. To: Vicomte13 (#77)

I'm not going to let the Republicans off the hook. There are no "Good Republicans". There are some people with good ideas and values who have mistakenly aligned themselves with the Republican Party.

Make up your mind.

There is only ONE Party who possesses the political muscle and will to legislate morally and constitutionally, for better or worse -- at present, that is the GOP.

Now the Party can either be taken back and reclaimed as in any other war, OR we stop fight right now and surrender.

Republicans and Democrats have been so consistently bad, for so long, they have exhausted any willingness on my part to expend any further energy trying to find kernels of edible corn in their poop. Crapweasels and babykillers. They can all go die in a hole and we would be better for it.

So....ALL the Republicans and conservatives who've been fighting the good fight should just...indict themselves as no different than Dem baby-killers and destroyers of the USCON??

What would YOU have done during the dark days when Christians were tossed to the lions and crucified? Suck it up, Vic.

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   10:47:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#101. To: CZ82 (#80)

Why can't some people figure out that being a moderate (believing the lies of "BOTH" parties) is voting for your own demise??

Because these people are brainwashed into believing in the propaganda of "fairness" of bi-partisanship, and "fairness" as enumerated in the US Constitution (OH WAIT! NOT THERE!!)

Being a "moderate" (half-tard) may not be the most evil political position, but is the dumbest political position possible. These people ought to know better.

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   10:54:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#102. To: tomder55 (#96)

Cruz is my first option. I haven't ruled out Walker. Some questions but he is ok so far.

Christie, Bush, no way.

A K A Stone  posted on  2015-03-25   10:56:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#103. To: CZ82, redleghunter (#81)

One thing is for sure he pissed off the MSM and the Leftards really bad yesterday. Even Moonbeam climbed out of his grave to say Cruz was a dumbass for being a climate change denier!! LOL...

Moonbeam Jerry Brown? The guy with investments in "Fossil" fuel?

Typical hypocritical nut-job fascist RAT.

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   11:02:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#104. To: Jameson, CZ82 (#82)

On the other hand, believing the lies of only one "party" is the epitome of ignorance......

Would that be the "lie" that "life" begins outside the womb? The lie that baby-killing is "CHOICE" or "Woman's Rights"?

The lie that "We're here from the gubmint and only here to help."?

Or the lie of "white privileged"?

(I could go on ad infinitum.)

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   11:07:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#105. To: jeremiad (#83)

You can compromise on policy, but NEVER on principles.

The Democrats never compromise unless it advances their agenda. Republicans compromise in hopes that the next time they want something, they will get a "wink and nod".

Amen!

But let it be noted that the GOP is controlled by feckless Vichy RNC elites.

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   11:08:54 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#106. To: tomder55, redleghunter, nolu chan (#87) (Edited)

The way I see it is that we have tried moderate party establishment types with Romney McCain ,and before that Bob Dole. Didn't work out so well.

Predictably disastrous with those designated moderate, pro-statist losers, but it's worse than that -- the Vichy RNC has actually actively sabotaged its own chances to win....THEN when it actually does win, the GOP yields to Dem politics and policy. Go figure.

I am not sur Cruz is the best candidate . His opening salvo was brilliant . It will frame the debate throughout the primary season.

Cruz puts pressure on the Left and Dems. He's GOT to sustain it and the initiative.

My reservations are that Cruz is a conservative version of the emperor in some ways. He doesn't have executive experience ;even his legislative record is thin. He has little foreign policy experience. In this cycle I think foreign policy will be a determinant

Well, visionaries are like that -- he's not shy about articulating his positions without the usual reservations or hedging of bets. That may come off as "emperor"-like, but make no mistake -- as we have seen, "emperors" don't usually pay much attention to the Constitution. Cruz DOES.

As to policy and executive experience, 0buma's "executive experince" was as a socialist, race-baiting. "Communtah Organizer." Didn't seem to bother the GOP. Or dopey voters.

The job of the President these days should be to surround themselves with like-minded, high-minded Constitutionalists and America-Firsters and be the the CEO of this nation. The Citizens are like stock-holders.

If I were to go to the polls today and have to choose from the probable field ,I'd most likely go with a principled conservative governor (and the GOP bench has quite a few to choose from.)

Which leaves who? Christie, Kascich, Walker, or Jindal?

The first three are compromised or moderates, and Jindal -- though a good man -- isn't forceful enough (IMHO.)

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   11:26:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#107. To: A K A Stone (#92) (Edited)

You have any favorite candidates yet?

Cruz. Cruz. Cruz. He's the George Patton of GOP candidates. Line up the armored division, then plow our way thru the Reich forces.

Even if they win, the other guys are going to continue watering down conservative values, while refusing to reverse any of the damage and rampant statist template already created by Der Fuhrer.

And you?

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   11:33:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#108. To: Liberator (#107)

Cruz.

A K A Stone  posted on  2015-03-25   11:35:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#109. To: TooConservative (#99)

There's this thing called Google. You should check it out.

Right.

You said 2/3 of the Billionaires support Democrats...

The your source states otherwise.

I'm sure it was just a typo

"we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie.

Jameson  posted on  2015-03-25   11:36:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#110. To: tomder55, A K A Stone (#96)

if a Scott Walker is selected rather than a Ted Cruz. That's who I'll vote for .

Certainly a no-brainer were the RAT opponent either Hitlery of that Faux Neo-millionaire squaw, Lizzie Borden.

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   11:36:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#111. To: A K A Stone (#108)

Giddy-Up!

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   11:37:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#112. To: Liberator (#97)

MOST conservatives/Republicans WILL base their life philosophy and ethics on ....Blah, Blah, Blah

MOST liberal/Democrats will base their life philosophy and ethics on ....Blah, Blah, Blah

So....what do you think MOST "People" will base their life philosophy and ethics on ...???

"we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie.

Jameson  posted on  2015-03-25   11:43:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#113. To: Jameson, TooConservative (#109) (Edited)

You said 2/3 of the Billionaires support Democrats...

The your source states otherwise.

I'm sure it was just a typo

Hung up on the minutia of style instead of substance -- typical. Have you given ANY consideration to the continued lying myth by Democrats that Republicans are the "party of the rich"?

Still, TC's point is made: The MAJORITY of billionaires are indeed Dems, aren't they? And at that, even those figures are sure to be fudged and skewed.

("...according to a POLITICO analysis of reports filed with the Federal Election Commission and Internal Revenue Service. )

The above fedgoob agencies are under complete partisan Dem control; NOT exactly trusted sources of these or ANY "official" numbers.

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   11:50:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#114. To: Liberator (#94)

Suddenly you're insulted and offended

No, I'm just curious if the edification of the body of Christ you put on display here is typical of the members of your "church" - and reiterate that I'm glad I'm an infidel and not a member.

VxH  posted on  2015-03-25   11:55:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#115. To: Liberator (#93) (Edited)

Killing the infection of WHAT then?

The ability of Fallible and Uninspired goons to assume dominion over the faith of others without having their errors contradicted.

VxH  posted on  2015-03-25   11:58:07 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#116. To: Jameson (#112)

So....what do you think MOST "People" will base their life philosophy and ethics on ...???

There are two types of people (mostly):

1) Givers, who who base their lives on a definitive standard of ethics and morality based on "The Golden Rule" or God's Laws.

2) Takers, who generally disbelieve in moral absolutes, a lack of personal responsibility, and belief that the world (and others) owe them.

And your own opinion on the matter?

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   12:00:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#117. To: Liberator, TooConservative (#113)

Have you given ANY consideration to the continued lying myth by Democrats that Republicans are the "party of the rich"?

No I've given that claim no consideration at all.

My point was simple - The 2/3 claim was false.

To your point: "...The MAJORITY of billionaires are indeed Dems, aren't they?..."

I believe that the MAJORITY of billionaires will support whomever promotes their particular agenda.

"we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie.

Jameson  posted on  2015-03-25   12:07:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#118. To: VxH (#114)

I'm just curious if the edification of the body of Christ you put on display here is typical of the members of your "church"...

Your "curiosity" is disingenuous, Riddler. NEWSFLASH: members of the "body of Christ" are comprised of those who believe in Him, and of whom ask for repentance and receive redemption of their sins. Do you expect Jefferson to do the same?

Btw, thanks for reiterating and re-displaying your infidel status as anti-Christ, AND re-kneeling at the edifice of Jefferson.

You got called out. Plain and simple.

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   12:13:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#119. To: Liberator (#116)

And your own opinion on the matter?

I believe that just about everyone will do what's best for them, in any given situation.

I think that a strong majority would profess to be "givers"....and 99% of them would be lying.

"we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie.

Jameson  posted on  2015-03-25   12:13:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#120. To: VxH (#115)

The ability of Fallible and Uninspired goons to assume dominion over the faith of others without having their errors contradicted.

ALL men are "falible," Riddler...

But tell us -- exactly who are these "goons" who "assume dominion" over your faith? Have you been coerced by someone specifically, OR, has your Free Will been stolen??

Moreover, exactly to which "errors" do you refer?

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   12:17:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#121. To: Jameson (#119) (Edited)

I believe that just about everyone will do what's best for them, in any given situation.

That's a pretty general statement that fails to address ANY differences in philosophy of living between say, a Christian, a Muslim, and an Atheist.

If what you believe is true, then why are all the Christian-based nations and societies the leaders in technical advancements, freedom, and the concepts of equality?

I think that a strong majority would profess to be "givers"....and 99% of them would be lying.

Not very aware of America's bustling charitable orgs, are you? Or the Christian ethos?

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   12:22:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#122. To: Liberator (#98)

ALL Republics/conservatives as "Good Germans" when its conservative battling for Life and Liberty EVERY day. Or are you??

Affiliation with the Republican Party is neutralizing.

The GOP gave us Roe and has upheld it and extended it.

They gave us Kelo, amnesty, open borders, endless wars, etc.

They're corrupt, and they never do what they say on any of the core issues. They say what they need to to get elected, and then they do what their crony capitalist controllers want. It's visible. It's been this way for a long, long time.

There are conservatives who want things to be better. Things can never get better if conservatives remain in the GOP. They are divided and the GOP conquers them. It gets their votes and their money, thereby diluting all of that for any sort of EFFECTIVE action.

The Republican Party ITSELF is the problem, and there will be no advance as long as conservatives remain in it.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-03-25   12:28:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#123. To: Liberator (#120) (Edited)

But tell us -- exactly who are these "goons" who "assume dominion" over your faith?

Looked in the mirror lately?

Religious state-establishments never have a shortage of good-ol-goons like you.

Moreover, exactly to which "errors" do you refer?

You mean like your error of being too stupid to admit that human genitalia always present female form without the effects of Androgen hormones?

VxH  posted on  2015-03-25   12:30:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#124. To: Jameson (#117)

No I've given that claim no consideration at all [to the continued lying myth by Democrats that Republicans are the "party of the rich"?]

But maybe you should. It's the basis of the Dems' propaganda class warfare on Republicans.

My point was simple - The 2/3 claim was false.

There is such a thijg as "winning" by a technicality, but losing on principle.

I believe that the MAJORITY of billionaires will support whomever promotes their particular agenda.

So you believe ALL agendas the same??

And IF one agenda is to pretend they support the plight of the poor and middle class while destroying the same poor and middle class? (like most Democrats?)....then what? Certain candidates indeed DO actually make a difference. Look at Der Fuehrer, Hoosane B. 0dinga and his regime.

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   12:31:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#125. To: Liberator (#121)

That's a pretty general statement that fails to address ANY differences in philosophy of living between say, a Christian, a Muslim, and an Atheist.

You are correct.

I think that a strong majority would profess to be "givers"....and 99% of them would be lying.

Not very aware of America's bustling charitable orgs, are you? Or the Christian ethos?

I believe that just about everyone will do what's best for them, in any given situation.

"we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie.

Jameson  posted on  2015-03-25   12:31:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#126. To: VxH (#123)

Now, it's just sad. Just toss in the white towel, Riddler. You've been thoroughly thrashed.

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   12:32:26 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#127. To: Jameson (#125)

I believe that just about everyone will do what's best for them, in any given situation.

People will instinctively and pragmatically act with self-preservation in mind, yes...

But that still doesn't account for a "life-philosophy" or moral code.

Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   12:35:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#128. To: Liberator (#126) (Edited)

Moreover, exactly to which "errors" do you refer?

You mean like your error of being too stupid to admit that human genitalia always present female form without the effects of Androgen hormones?

"In a fetus without a Y chromosome — without the effects of male hormones — the genitals develop as female."

www.mayoclinic.org/diseases- conditions/ambiguous-genitalia/basics/causes/con-20026345

What does this mean?


Maybe you should just stick with "HUH?", Idiot.

VxH  posted on  2015-03-25   12:36:30 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#129. To: Liberator (#124)

There is such a thing as "winning" by a technicality, but losing on principle.

There sure is...however my point, as I said, was quite simple: The 2/3 claim was false.

So you believe ALL agendas the same??

No.

Certain candidates indeed DO actually make a difference.

Agreed.

"we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie.

Jameson  posted on  2015-03-25   12:38:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#130. To: Liberator (#127)

But that still doesn't account for a "life-philosophy" or moral code.

This is where we disagree, "...just about everyone will do what's best for them, in any given situation..."

Is indeed a life-philosophy or moral code.

"we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie.

Jameson  posted on  2015-03-25   12:41:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#131. To: Liberator (#106)

THEN when it actually does win, the GOP yields to Dem politics and policy. Go figure.

Because the GOP, since 1868, has been the party of capitalist stockjobbers whose profits are derived primarily from monopolistic government contracts. They produce goods and services for the government, they are given contracts without competition, and they get rich through long-term, stable feeding on the government payroll.

This became the central power of the Republican Party with the wholly corrupt Administration of Ulysses S. Grant, following the Civil War, and it has never changed.

What is most important to the core GOP is that the contracts remain stable. THAT is their alpha issue: very larger, permanent, non-competitive government contracts that take about a quarter of the treasury and transfer it to the contractors.

For that to be stable and certain, the GOP must retain a certain level of power in Congress, as well as in the Civil Service. It was the GOP who made the Civil Service "professional" (in the Presidency of Chester Arthur), at a time when its ranks were completely Republican. As that waned with time, the GOP shifted and empowered cabinet secretaries and did other things.

The Republicans don't need to control the whole government, and they don't need to control every agency. They need to control the big contracting agencies, the ones that hire the Halliburtons. And they need to have enough political clout that the Democrats in Congress and the rest of the Republicans will quietly concede the contracts to them, in exchange for everything else.

That "everything else" is the game of retail politics. The GOP needs to retain sufficient popularity to get elected in sufficient numbers to keep the contract farm stable. To do that, they have to enthuse people with issues, but they're never serious about those issues, they always clutch up on the key pitches, because, in part, they don't care, and also because they don't WANT to win. For those executives and contributors who profit from the stockjobbing are not particularly conservative. They're to the left on most issues, but their bread is buttered through contracts and special tax clauses, so they use the GOP as their technical blocker and champion.

Everything else doesn't matter as much, and Republicans will never die on the hills that conservatives want them to fight for. They will die for tax preferences and contract rights - THOSE things are esoteric, arranged quietly, and non-negotiable. The grand-standing issues like abortion? Conservatives care. Some Republican pols care. Other strike the pose to get the votes. The actual crony capitalists are socially liberal and will never let the GOP strike down abortion. They like the optionality for their own daughters and mistresses, and they concede this to their wives and their Harvard Club buddies.

That's the way it is. It cannot change. The money and power bloc is solid, and lucrative. Politicians who protect it come through the revolving door and cash out throughout the rest of their lives. This is the REAL core GOP, and it's not going to change.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-03-25   12:45:19 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#132. To: Liberator (#106)

Well, visionaries are like that -- he's not shy about articulating his positions without the usual reservations or hedging of bets. That may come off as "emperor"-like, but make no mistake -- as we have seen, "emperors" don't usually pay much attention to the Constitution. Cruz DOES.

As to policy and executive experience, 0buma's "executive experince" was as a socialist, race-baiting. "Communtah Organizer." Didn't seem to bother the GOP. Or dopey voters.

Let me clarify . My name for Obama is Emperor Zero and I often just say "the emperor " . In no way was I calling Cruz emperor like. I know Cruz's policies are a strict adherence to Constitutional principles.

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

tomder55  posted on  2015-03-25   12:47:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#133. To: Liberator (#124)

But maybe you should. It's the basis of the Dems' propaganda class warfare on Republicans.

Here's a good example of where our individual approaches don't align.

I really don't care that the republicans and the democrats are in a constant state of petty conflict. It's childish, undignified, and should probably be regular feature on the Jerry Springer show.

"we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie.

Jameson  posted on  2015-03-25   13:02:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#134. To: Jameson (#133)

It's childish, undignified, and...

...strategically dialectic.

VxH  posted on  2015-03-25   13:07:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#135. To: Jameson (#130)

a life-philosophy or moral code.

Altruistic behavior is exhibited by many animals.

Got Sex, Evolution and Behavior?

www.goodreads.com/book/sh...ex_Evolution_and_Behavior

VxH  posted on  2015-03-25   13:12:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#136. To: Liberator (#113)

People like Willie and Jameson just come here to troll.

As to the actual amount of billionaires, some billionaires may give or register with one party but only donate as though they are millionaires. So they might have billions but donate only in the tens of thousands. Then you have billionaires like Adelson or the Koch network or Soros who toss in tens of millions. Or you have some like Bloomberg that has a gungrabbing fetish and that controls the direction of their political spending.

So it can be hard to quantify all the activities of these various billionaires in either party.

That's before you even look at the secret-donor PACs.

The tycoons are happy enough to let us have the vote as long as they have the money and can use it to buy up the pols we elect by various means.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-03-25   13:14:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#137. To: Liberator (#106)

If I were to go to the polls today and have to choose from the probable field ,I'd most likely go with a principled conservative governor (and the GOP bench has quite a few to choose from.)

Which leaves who? Christie, Kascich, Walker, or Jindal?

The first three are compromised or moderates, and Jindal -- though a good man -- isn't forceful enough (IMHO.)

I fail to see where Walker is either compromised or moderate . He also has had the courage to take the best shots the Democrat storm troopers can give ,and remain standing . So he would be my first choice . Rick Perry would probably be my 2nd choice of eligible governors . He also has the advantage to being one of the few GOP candidates who served in the military . Also would like to give kudos to Susana Martinez ,and ,Nikki Haley.

Yes I'm sure there are issues with each of them and they aren't as ideologically pure . Be careful of overly rigid litmus tests . There are some Founding Fathers who would fall short .

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

tomder55  posted on  2015-03-25   13:18:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  



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