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"Why Young Americans Are Not Taught about Evil" Status: Not Logged In; Sign In United States News See other United States News Articles Title: Let’s Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: He’s Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win Source: FiveThirtyEight Politics URL Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features ... treme-and-too-disliked-to-win/ Published: Mar 23, 2015 Author: Harry Enten Post Date: 2015-03-23 15:57:49 by Jameson Keywords: cruz, extreme, disliked Views: 24023 Comments: 151 Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s newly minted presidential campaign is the media equivalent of a juicy rib-eye that robbers use to distract a guard dog during a heist. He’ll get a ton of media attention, and he’ll get to spread his message — which may be all that Cruz is after — but Cruz almost certainly has no shot of winning the nomination, according to every indicator that predicts success in presidential primaries. First, Cruz doesn’t have enough support from party bigwigs. To win the Republican or Democratic nomination, you need the backing of at least some of the party apparatus. At a minimum, your fellow party members shouldn’t hate you. Otherwise, you end up getting the Newt Gingrich 2012 treatment. That is, you get pounced on the moment you’re seen as a threat to win the nomination. Click for Full Text! Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 106. #1. To: Jameson (#0) The bar for Presidential credentials was lowered by the current occupant...Obola. I will enjoy all the libs stating "he's a junior senator." "What foreign policy experience does he have?" Well they did not ask that of Obola (only lib that did was Biden in the primaries). redleghunter  posted on  2015-03-23   16:03:25 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #2. To: redleghunter (#1) Your comment is appreciated......do you have any thoughts on the content of the article? Jameson  posted on  2015-03-23   16:13:23 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #3. To: Jameson (#2) Cruz is likely far too extreme ideologically to win the nomination. The Republican party has a habit of nominating relatively moderate candidates (see John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012). That’s especially the case when the party has been out of the White House for more than one term. A Cruz nomination wouldn’t just break this streak; it would throw it off a 100-floor balcony and drop a piano on it. I agree with the little or no support of the party 'big wigs.' You can't get far without campaign funding. On the quoted above I disagree with the reasoning. Look at how those elections worked out for the GOP with moderates. Some conservatives stayed home and it showed in the results. redleghunter  posted on  2015-03-23   16:34:39 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #48. To: redleghunter, Jameson (#3) Look at how those elections worked out for the GOP with moderates. Some conservatives stayed home and it showed in the results. It depends on one's viewpoint. The mission of the Party PTB is to (1) protect their position as the Party PTB and (2) elect one of their own as President. By nominating and electing any conservative such as Ted Cruz, the moderate Party PTB would risk being replaced by conservatives. By nominating a moderate, they ensure that no conservative has any claim to fame demonstrating the lack of merit in their moderate or liberal policies. Their primary motivation is to remain in control of the levers of power within the party. That purpose is better served by a losing Ford, Dole, McCain, Romney, or the like, than a winning conservative. The corporate donors do not care if conservatives stay home. Big business likes big government. The two parties in D.C. are in the business of selling tax breaks and government contracts. Big business are the buyers. The American taxpayer pays the bill. nolu chan  posted on  2015-03-24   12:25:56 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #64. To: nolu chan, liberator, tomder55 (#48) By nominating and electing any conservative such as Ted Cruz, the moderate Party PTB would risk being replaced by conservatives. By nominating a moderate, they ensure that no conservative has any claim to fame demonstrating the lack of merit in their moderate or liberal policies. Their primary motivation is to remain in control of the levers of power within the party. That purpose is better served by a losing Ford, Dole, McCain, Romney, or the like, than a winning conservative. Sometimes a bright light has to shine to scatter the cockroaches. Cruz gave us some of that light yesterday. More to follow to see if he throws back the entire curtain to let the light in. Also, will the comatose American electorate even comprehend such light? The very soul of this nation is at stake. redleghunter  posted on  2015-03-24   13:13:19 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #87. To: redleghunter, nolu chan, liberator, (#64) The way I see it is that we have tried moderate party establishment types with Romney McCain ,and before that Bob Dole. Didn't work out so well. I am not sur Cruz is the best candidate . His opening salvo was brilliant . It will frame the debate throughout the primary season. My reservations are that Cruz is a conservative version of the emperor in some ways. He doesn't have executive experience ;even his legislative record is thin. He has little foreign policy experience. In this cycle I think foreign policy will be a determinant . If I were to go to the polls today and have to choose from the probable field ,I'd most likely go with a principled conservative governor (and the GOP bench has quite a few to choose from ) . So far the declared field is Cruz and Jebbabubba Bush . Between those 2 ,Cruz is the clear choice . tomder55  posted on  2015-03-25   7:53:12 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #106. To: tomder55, redleghunter, nolu chan (#87) (Edited) The way I see it is that we have tried moderate party establishment types with Romney McCain ,and before that Bob Dole. Didn't work out so well. Predictably disastrous with those designated moderate, pro-statist losers, but it's worse than that -- the Vichy RNC has actually actively sabotaged its own chances to win....THEN when it actually does win, the GOP yields to Dem politics and policy. Go figure. I am not sur Cruz is the best candidate . His opening salvo was brilliant . It will frame the debate throughout the primary season. Cruz puts pressure on the Left and Dems. He's GOT to sustain it and the initiative. My reservations are that Cruz is a conservative version of the emperor in some ways. He doesn't have executive experience ;even his legislative record is thin. He has little foreign policy experience. In this cycle I think foreign policy will be a determinant Well, visionaries are like that -- he's not shy about articulating his positions without the usual reservations or hedging of bets. That may come off as "emperor"-like, but make no mistake -- as we have seen, "emperors" don't usually pay much attention to the Constitution. Cruz DOES. As to policy and executive experience, 0buma's "executive experince" was as a socialist, race-baiting. "Communtah Organizer." Didn't seem to bother the GOP. Or dopey voters. The job of the President these days should be to surround themselves with like-minded, high-minded Constitutionalists and America-Firsters and be the the CEO of this nation. The Citizens are like stock-holders. If I were to go to the polls today and have to choose from the probable field ,I'd most likely go with a principled conservative governor (and the GOP bench has quite a few to choose from.) Which leaves who? Christie, Kascich, Walker, or Jindal? The first three are compromised or moderates, and Jindal -- though a good man -- isn't forceful enough (IMHO.) Liberator  posted on  2015-03-25   11:26:20 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   Replies to Comment # 106. #131. To: Liberator (#106) THEN when it actually does win, the GOP yields to Dem politics and policy. Go figure. Because the GOP, since 1868, has been the party of capitalist stockjobbers whose profits are derived primarily from monopolistic government contracts. They produce goods and services for the government, they are given contracts without competition, and they get rich through long-term, stable feeding on the government payroll. This became the central power of the Republican Party with the wholly corrupt Administration of Ulysses S. Grant, following the Civil War, and it has never changed. What is most important to the core GOP is that the contracts remain stable. THAT is their alpha issue: very larger, permanent, non-competitive government contracts that take about a quarter of the treasury and transfer it to the contractors. For that to be stable and certain, the GOP must retain a certain level of power in Congress, as well as in the Civil Service. It was the GOP who made the Civil Service "professional" (in the Presidency of Chester Arthur), at a time when its ranks were completely Republican. As that waned with time, the GOP shifted and empowered cabinet secretaries and did other things. The Republicans don't need to control the whole government, and they don't need to control every agency. They need to control the big contracting agencies, the ones that hire the Halliburtons. And they need to have enough political clout that the Democrats in Congress and the rest of the Republicans will quietly concede the contracts to them, in exchange for everything else. That "everything else" is the game of retail politics. The GOP needs to retain sufficient popularity to get elected in sufficient numbers to keep the contract farm stable. To do that, they have to enthuse people with issues, but they're never serious about those issues, they always clutch up on the key pitches, because, in part, they don't care, and also because they don't WANT to win. For those executives and contributors who profit from the stockjobbing are not particularly conservative. They're to the left on most issues, but their bread is buttered through contracts and special tax clauses, so they use the GOP as their technical blocker and champion. Everything else doesn't matter as much, and Republicans will never die on the hills that conservatives want them to fight for. They will die for tax preferences and contract rights - THOSE things are esoteric, arranged quietly, and non-negotiable. The grand-standing issues like abortion? Conservatives care. Some Republican pols care. Other strike the pose to get the votes. The actual crony capitalists are socially liberal and will never let the GOP strike down abortion. They like the optionality for their own daughters and mistresses, and they concede this to their wives and their Harvard Club buddies. That's the way it is. It cannot change. The money and power bloc is solid, and lucrative. Politicians who protect it come through the revolving door and cash out throughout the rest of their lives. This is the REAL core GOP, and it's not going to change. Vicomte13  posted on  2015-03-25 12:45:19 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #132. To: Liberator (#106) Well, visionaries are like that -- he's not shy about articulating his positions without the usual reservations or hedging of bets. That may come off as "emperor"-like, but make no mistake -- as we have seen, "emperors" don't usually pay much attention to the Constitution. Cruz DOES. As to policy and executive experience, 0buma's "executive experince" was as a socialist, race-baiting. "Communtah Organizer." Didn't seem to bother the GOP. Or dopey voters. Let me clarify . My name for Obama is Emperor Zero and I often just say "the emperor " . In no way was I calling Cruz emperor like. I know Cruz's policies are a strict adherence to Constitutional principles. tomder55  posted on  2015-03-25 12:47:18 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #137. To: Liberator (#106) If I were to go to the polls today and have to choose from the probable field ,I'd most likely go with a principled conservative governor (and the GOP bench has quite a few to choose from.) Which leaves who? Christie, Kascich, Walker, or Jindal? The first three are compromised or moderates, and Jindal -- though a good man -- isn't forceful enough (IMHO.) I fail to see where Walker is either compromised or moderate . He also has had the courage to take the best shots the Democrat storm troopers can give ,and remain standing . So he would be my first choice . Rick Perry would probably be my 2nd choice of eligible governors . He also has the advantage to being one of the few GOP candidates who served in the military . Also would like to give kudos to Susana Martinez ,and ,Nikki Haley. Yes I'm sure there are issues with each of them and they aren't as ideologically pure . Be careful of overly rigid litmus tests . There are some Founding Fathers who would fall short . tomder55  posted on  2015-03-25 13:18:25 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #145. To: Liberator, tomder55, redleghunter (#106) [Tomder55 #87] The way I see it is that we have tried moderate party establishment types with Romney McCain ,and before that Bob Dole. Didn't work out so well. According to the moderate party PTB, their way is the answer. The failing was in the campaign of the candidate getting the wonderful message out. [Liberator #106] THEN when it actually does win, the GOP yields to Dem politics and policy. Go figure. The same corporate money fuels the Dem and GOP national organizations. Go figure. In the football season, the AFC and NFC hold primaries to choose their candidate to fight for the prize in the Super Bowl. And the winner is... the NFL. They own both conferences. Corporate money owns both parties. Regardless of who wins, they own them. [Liberator #106] Which leaves who? Christie, Kascich, Walker, or Jindal? Don’t forget Marco Rubio. He is an effective speaker, hispanic, and does not carry as much baggage as Bush or Cruz. It is too early to tell if he will gain any traction. I see Kasich and Walker as potentially viable GOP candidates. I have previously noted that Cruz should not be underestimated. He excels at debate. He is, however, the most polarizing of the potential GOP candidates. On the Dem side, I doubt Hillary will prevail. While Elizabeth Warren may be left of Obama, she is popular, she is a woman, and she excels at debate. She could excite a cult following like 2008 Obama did. Remember those unreal crowds? Hillary is the same polarizing figure she was in 2008. nolu chan  posted on  2015-03-25 21:00:40 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   End Trace Mode for Comment # 106. Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest

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