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Title: Sarkozy denies far-right Le Pen victory in French polls
Source: Yahoo News Canada
URL Source: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/france-go ... ront-ascendancy-092853406.html
Published: Mar 23, 2015
Author: Andrew Callus
Post Date: 2015-03-23 06:33:03 by Tooconservative
Keywords: France
Views: 803
Comments: 6

PARIS (Reuters) - Former President Nicolas Sarkozy's conservative UMP party and their allies won the first round of French local elections on Sunday, denying Marine Le Pen's far-right National Front (FN) first place.

The result is an unaccustomed setback for Le Pen, who hoped her resurgent anti-immigrant, anti-euro party would emerge in the first round, boosting her goal of being a serious contender in the 2017 presidential election.

According to official partial results that tallied with exit polls, the UMP and its allies together secured around 30 percent of the national vote, ahead of the anti-immigrant, anti-euro FN on around 26, about 0.5 percentage points above its European elections showing last year.

Pre-election polls had the right and hard-right groupings neck and neck.

"The National Front has done 10 points better than it did in the 2011 local elections but its progress has stalled. It seems to have reached a ceiling," said Bernard Sananes, head of the polling organization CSA on BFMTV.

As expected, President Francois Hollande's ruling Socialists came third with around 21 percent of the vote, underlining their unpopularity after failed promises to bring unemployment down from current levels around 10 percent.

Sarkozy immediately ruled out any alliances between his party and FN candidates in next Sunday's second round, which will decide who controls France's "departements", one level in France's complex multi-layered system of local government.

"To those who voted National Front, we understand your frustrations," UMP chairman Sarkozy told supporters at party headquarters.

"But this party will not solve France's problems - it will only make them worse," added the ex-president, who came out of retirement last year and hopes to secure the 2017 presidential ticket for his bitterly divided party in primaries next year.

Le Pen, who advocates a return of the franc and has hailed the rise to power of hard-leftists in Greece, is one of several radical leaders making gains across Europe the of the 2008-09 economic crisis.

She rode a wave of disenchantment with established parties to emerge top in last year's European Parliament elections and also won control of a dozen city halls in a separate ballot.

While Sunday's vote means she can no longer argue the FN is France's most popular party, Le Pen said the result was still a gain for a party almost totally absent from the departements at present, and a slap for Hollande's Prime Minister Manuel Valls.

"Manuel Valls must now hear the message of voters and have the decency to hand in his resignation to the president," she told supporters of the centrist reformer, who Hollande already said will remain in post whatever the final vote outcome.

Valls, who toured the country seeking to drum up support for his party, called on voters to back whatever candidate is best placed to beat the FN candidate in next Sunday's run-offs.

The two-round nature of the elections means the FN may win as little as one of the total 102 departements outright. But it still hopes to get dozens of its officials elected onto their councils, thus strengthening the party's local networks.

If the UMP goes on to secure the majority of the local councils across France, that will be a much-needed boost to Sarkozy's political come-back bid, which so far has failed to fully convince right-leaning voters.

He is due to re-launch the UMP with a new name in May and has signaled he will seek to win back voters from the FN with policies including a requirement for immigrants to demonstrate they have fully embraced the French language and culture.


Poster Comment:

FN's surge fizzled and fell short of predictions. Le Pen's moment has receded.

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#1. To: TooConservative (#0)

FN's surge fizzled and fell short of predictions. Le Pen's moment has receded.

The FN is not a wave upon the shore. It is a steady drip, drip, drip that erodes away the opposition.

Gutta cavat lapidem.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-03-23   9:18:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Vicomte13 (#1)

The FN is not a wave upon the shore. It is a steady drip, drip, drip that erodes away the opposition.

I agree but the French establishment has demonstrated it can close ranks to exclude FN.

The Socialists may become a permanent minority party after the odious presidency of Hollande, leaving the new rebranded UMP under Sarkozy will become France's new centrist party. FN will be the challenger. You notice that the Socialists have pledged to vote UMP in the second round but Sarkozy has made no reciprocal pledge for urging UMP voters to vote Socialist to block FN candidates. It shows the strength of UMP and a sharp waning of Socialist influence.

The center (UMP and Sarkozy under whatever brand name) is likely to hold as long as there is no Hebdo-scale massacre or another similar debacle of the current French establishment. Large-scale Muslim rioting as we saw years back would do.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-03-23   9:55:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: TooConservative (#2)

I agree but the French establishment has demonstrated it can close ranks to exclude FN.

The French did that two elections ago when the outcome of the first tour was the corrupt Chirac versus Le Pen. Le Pen lost in a landslide, because the Communists, Socialists and everybody else but the FN came out and voted for Chirac. It was sort of like that election down in, what was it, Louisiana?, a few years ago between an indicted politician and David Duke. The bumper stickers read: "Vote for the Crook: It's important". In Louisiana, they consciously voted for a felon in order to block a Klansman from getting office. It was important. In France, even the Communists, even, voted for a corrupt and disliked (and weak) man of the Right rather than let the Far Right have any chance of winning.

Today, the FN is more popular than it was then. As the Right and Left in France continue to lurch from failure to failure, more and more people gradually harden into the FN position. But that "more and more" is about the size, perhaps of the US Republican Party, and the structure of French elections (and depths of French political antipathies) are such that a 30% party can win if its moderate Left or moderate Right, but can't if it's hard Left or hard Right.

We should not be too terribly surprised that Socialists have a hard time gaining power in France. Truth is, France has only had two Socialist Presidents: Mitterand and Hollande, and Mitterand was a World War II era man, more of a king than a scummy politician.

The Socialists only get a chance when things are really going badly and the right is particularly divided and coming out of a long period of weakness and corruption.

Hollande has worn thin, so France will return to the usual Gaullist center where it usually lives.

The National Front has its points, and people don't disagree, but the bulk don't want to go that far. The steady rise in numbers means that more and more do want to go that far. If the Right and the Left both cannot find a solution to France's problems, eventually France may go that route, or may veer off in an as-yet unseen direction.

Vicomte13  posted on  2015-03-23   11:27:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Vicomte13 (#3)

Today, the FN is more popular than it was then. As the Right and Left in France continue to lurch from failure to failure, more and more people gradually harden into the FN position. But that "more and more" is about the size, perhaps of the US Republican Party, and the structure of French elections (and depths of French political antipathies) are such that a 30% party can win if its moderate Left or moderate Right, but can't if it's hard Left or hard Right.

FN is France's Tea Party, bitterly hated by both wings of the elite establishment.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-03-23   18:29:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: TooConservative, Vicomte13 (#4)

Sarkozy is conservative enough to push the fringe to the side. Also, he has adopted in some cases the attitude or words of the Le Pen in some cases. I think in a healthy democracy the main 2 parties always adopt platforms from the fringe - in the USA the progressive fringe became the basis of the new Republican party of Teddy Roosevelt for example.

Pericles  posted on  2015-03-24   1:44:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: Pericles, Vicomte13 (#5)

Stratfor offers a few perspectives on FN vs. UMP.

Conversation: Making Sense of France's Recent Elections

Video Transcript

Ben Sheen: My name is Ben Sheen. I'm a managing editor here at Stratfor, and I'm joined today by Europe Analyst Julien Freund. We'll be talking  a little bit about the March 22 elections in France. So Julien, what exactly are these local elections we've seen on Sunday?

Julien Freund: During these elections, the French people elected the representatives of localities called "cantons," and the local officials of these cantons will form the departmental councils, the organism that is responsible for managing the departments of France.

Ben: What do we actually see from the elections themselves? Was it as expected? Who actually came out in the lead?

Julien: The freshly-created alliance between the center and the right, the UMP, the Union for a Popular Movement, and the UDI, the Union for Independence, came first as a result of these elections. They came in first with 29 percent of the votes. The second political force was the National Front, the anti-establishment party, the anti-European Union party that came in second with 25 percent. The ruling Socialist Party of Francois Hollande came in third with 21 percent.

Ben: Do you think it was a surprise that the National Front did so well in these elections, seeing as how they're more anti-establishment?

Julien: It was very much expected that they would score very well. I would say what is really a surprise is the score of the UMP and the UDI, with almost 30 percent. When Sarkozy took the lead of this party last year and the party was really not healthy at that moment.

Ben: So what does this mean then? This is obviously the first round of voting, and the next round takes place on March 29. What do you think we are going to see between now and then and what can we expect in the next round of voting?

Julien: What you have to know first in these local elections is that the Socialist Party used to manage 61 departments out of 101 departments. After Sunday's runoff, they are expected to win 20 departments, so they will lose around 40 departments. This will be a hard snap for the Socialist Party. The UMP is going to be the main winner of this runoff, winning many departments. The National Front is expected to win one or two departments, which will be the very first time for the nationalist party.

Ben: Am I right in thinking as well that there are going to be more women involved in these stages of the elections as well because of a new regulation brought in?

Julien: The new regulation was implemented last year, and it makes it mandatory for what they call "binomes" to manage the departments. It has to be a male and a female, a man and a woman, managing the department. So yes, we're going to have much more women as a matter of fact.

Ben: Based on what we've seen in this round of elections and in the next round, what will this actually mean for France as a whole, and potentially, its role in the European Union?

Julien: With these elections, the National Front is going to have a growing number of elected officials in the departments and in the cantons. They're going to be able to build experience because they didn’t have these elected officials before. They're going to be able to deliver their messages within these councils' departments. Their influence is going to grow on a regional level and on a national level. This kind of army of elected officials is going to build credibility and their legitimacy to potentially come to power in the presidential elections in 2017. We're expecting to see a constant rise of the National Front. As the pattern shows right now, in the 2017 elections, we could see a runoff between the UMP candidate and the National Front candidate, Marine Le Pen. As a consequence for Europe, because the National Front is going to gain more importance within the political debate in France, it's going to make the Socialist Party and the UMP debate on grounds such as anti-immigration policies and anti-EU policies. It's going to move the political debate to the far right. This will probably have an impact on the image of France in the European Union and the actual EU integration because this party is deeply anti-European integration. So, moving France to the far right will redefine European integration in the next years.

Ben: Well, we'll see what this holds for the future of France and the future of Europe. Julien, thank you so much for explaining that. It's been very clear. For more analysis on elections in Europe, in France, Spain and elsewhere, keep reading Stratfor.com.

Tooconservative  posted on  2015-03-25   9:13:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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