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Title: France’s Front National Gaining in the Polls
Source:
International Policy Digest
URL Source: http://www.internationalpolicydiges ... national-gaining-in-the-polls/
Published: Mar 18, 2015
Author: Mikala Sorenson
Post Date: 2015-03-20 05:20:02 by Tooconservative
Keywords: France, EU
Views: 712
Comments: 7
Discontent in France has translated into a drift of power towards the far right in the form of Front National. It no longer requires a very vivid imagination to envision Ms. Le Pen achieving an electoral victory in 2017. Despite her party’s controversial past it has become much more socially acceptable to support the FN, to the extent that Marine Le Pen draws enthusiastic crowds to official events, and Madonna, who once superimposed a swastika on an image of Ms. Le Pen’s face at a concert, wants to “sit down and have a drink” with her. None of this changes the fact that her political agenda remains subversive. She calls for an end to the EU and has adopted policies critical of the French allies, backing Putin’s annexation of Crimea. She also wants to raise wages and pensions, restore the retirement age to 60, as well as establish border controls and reinstate the death penalty. Meanwhile, many voters hope that she will be the one to “save France,” in the belief that only radical policy changes can do so. Yet, it is highly questionable whether Ms. Le Pen’s vision, with its populist promises and scepticism towards free markets, free movement and free trade, is a road to salvation. The spirit that brought 4 million French closer together and onto the streets in solidarity after the attacks on Charlie Hebdo has already waned, and the polling numbers show how FN’s protectionism, conservatism and nationalism appeals to voters en masse. FN is part of a broader trend in Europe, where the lingering economic malaise and associated unemployment of the Eurozone has led significant numbers to respond to the easy attraction of the far right or far left. It can best be described as the politics of scapegoating, whether the blame falls on immigrants, Muslims, Euro-bureaucrats or Jews like in FN’s past, and the tactics are mirrored all across Europe. Voters are disillusioned with the political elite, and as the traditional, centrist parties lose political capital, voters turn to the fringe, where promises of sweeping, popular action sound like a welcome overhaul of politics-as-usual. Europe’s voters are increasingly drawn to protest parties Syriza in Greece has been the first protest party to obtain real powers of government, and its doings are monitored closely, by centre and fringe parties alike. France, however, is a much bigger fish than Greece, and if Ms. Le Pen should happen to win the presidency, it would raise a number of awkward questions about French membership in the European Union. Currently, FN is poised to round up 30% of the vote in the first of two rounds of regional elections on March 22nd and 29th. Although it is doubtful that FN will win many local assemblies, as voters from centre-right and left may gang up to exclude it, there will still be hundreds of seats across France filled by members of FN, forming a base for the presidential campaign in two years. The polls indicate that Ms. Le Pen will probably make it to the second round in 2017, but that her chances of winning are slim, but existent. In the end, winning the presidency is perhaps the lesser goal. Governing does not always lend itself well to extreme policies and populist views. Furthermore, FN has already succeeded in changing France from a two- to a three-party system, which is no small feat. Until 2017, the incumbent government will be under a lot of pressure. There are plenty of problems to address, and with FN racing ahead in the polls, consciousness of public opinion is likely to affect domestic and multilateral matters. This could slow down the reform process that has been underway, such as Macron Law, which was passed by decree following a tense vote of confidence in Parliament, and make implementation less rigorous. Public attitudes towards EU, Germany and Greece could also be affected by disturbing trends at home, which may have been a factor in the negotiations between Eurozone finance ministers in February. Here, France took a soft stance towards Greece and advocated that the other Eurozone members show understanding and respect for the change in leadership and the Greek electorate’s decision. There is a small risk that French voters are going to set a similar shift in motion in the not-so-distant future, and if the economic consequences of a potential Grexit would be problematic and inconvenient, the results of a “Frexit,” although rooted in different causes, would be very messy indeed.
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#1. To: All, Pericles, Marguerite, Vicomte13 (#0)
Bloomberg offers more details on what France's upcoming parliamentary elections will mean: As France votes on Sunday in the first round of local elections, the FN is seeking to convince the electorate it has transformed from a protest party tinged with racism and Holocaust denial to one that leader Le Pen says has a credible shot at the presidency in 2017. Working in her favor are a moribund economy, President Francois Hollande who has managed to stem the decline in his popularity without reversing it, a divided center-right, and expectations of record low turnout. “We’re getting used to what was once unthinkable: that the FN can top the poll in nationwide elections,” said Jim Shields, head of French studies at Aston University in Birmingham, England. “These elections will not see the FN storm the gates of power, but they will be important in extending the party’s mid-level elite as Marine Le Pen seeks to rebuild it from the grassroots up.” The National Front won the most votes of any party in last May’s elections for the European Parliament. In March 2014’s municipal elections it did well in the first round, but in the second round took control of only 12 of France’s 36,000 towns, including Henin Beaumont. A similar fate could await it in the second round of the departmental elections on March 29. “Between votes won and seats won, there will be an enormous chasm as the FN succumbs again to the punitive effects of the two-round majority system,” said Shields. In these elections, 98 of France’s 101 “departments” will be selecting 4,108 representatives to serve six-year terms on departmental councils. For this election, France is divided into 2,054 “cantons” and each one must select one man and one woman. If no one wins a majority this Sunday, the top two vote-getters in the first round face off the following Sunday. Comparisons with past elections will be difficult because the number of cantons has been cut in half since they last voted, some in 2008 and others in 2011. There will be no voting in Paris or Lyon because their city councils count as departmental councils. Nor will there be any in France’s overseas territories of Guyane and Martinique because they haven’t finished redrawing their cantons. Confusion over the elections has led to expectations that less than half the electorate will vote, compared with about 80 percent in the 2012 presidential elections. It’s not clear what responsibilities will fall to the departments once regional government is slimmed down. As recently as last year, there were plans to consider abolishing departments altogether. Among potential voters, about 31 percent plan to back the FN in the first round, compared with 29 percent for former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP party and 20 percent for Hollande’s Socialists, according to a March 9 Odoxa poll. Odoxa interviewed 880 adults. In the second round, the UMP will win by a “tidal wave,” Odoxa said, without predicting how many departments it would capture. The elections are something of a test for Sarkozy, who has made a comeback after saying he was quitting politics following his defeat in the 2012 presidential elections. “We can see a clear victory for the UMP in the second round, and a minor ebbing for the National Front after a first round that will be historic by any definition,” Odoxa President Gael Sliman said in a commentary accompanying the poll. Socialist Party leaders have unanimously said they will ask their supporters to back UMP candidates in run-offs against the FN. The UMP is split about what to do if its candidates don’t make the second round. Sarkozy has said he won’t ask his followers to vote for the Socialists. Bordeaux mayor Alain Juppe, who plans to challenge Sarkozy to be the UMP’s presidential candidate in 2017, has said he will. Prime Minister Manuel Valls has led the government’s charge against the FN, saying its victory is a danger to France. “I will campaign to stigmatize you to the very end, because you are not France,” Valls shouted at a FN member of parliament during a debate March 10. In a televised interview on March 8, he said: “I fear for my country, I fear it will split apart when confronted with the National Front. Its policies would be a disaster for the country.” . . .
If the established political parties do not address the needs and desires of the people, the populace of France is courageous enough to abandon their old allegiances and give their support to new parties who might. Americans? Not so much.
Prime Minister Manuel Valls has led the government’s charge against the FN, saying its victory is a danger to France. “I will campaign to stigmatize you to the very end, because you are not France,” Valls shouted at a FN member of parliament during a debate March 10. In a televised interview on March 8, he said: “I fear for my country, I fear it will split apart when confronted with the National Front. Its policies would be a disaster for the country.” . . . Valls must think the current government is doing a fantastic job. “Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rapidly promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end.”
France's chattering classes must feel the ship of state has broken loose from its moorings. The Jews leaving France? To be forced to discuss the possibility of President Le Pen? It's a nightmare for them, the unraveling of the Ancien Régime of the modern French republic, something they can scarcely imagine. I notice that Front National and Le Pen now pose the same scale of threat to France's establishment as UKIP and Nigel Farage pose to Britain's establishment. FN poses the greater threat to the Socialists; UKIP poses the greater threat to Labour. And five years ago, people would have laughed at the mention of either. They aren't laughing any more. It does bear directly on America where we supposedly have two permanent political parties that similarly cannot be dislodged. Until suddenly they are.
It terrifies them that France is about one Hebdo massacre away from President Le Pen.
France takes a long time to move. The French are conservative people (in the sense of doing things in a certain traditional way) and take a long time to change, just like the rest of Europe. But when France moves, it moves and it pulls everybody else along in a way that no other European country does. If a right wing movement arises in Germany, people rightly fear it. It doesn't matter what happens in Britain: they're not like the rest of Europe anyway. Italy and Spain are pretty much irrelevant: nobody takes them seriously. Holland is a serious country, but it's too small to move anything. But France is the biggest country in the EU, and the second biggest economy in the EU, and has the biggest cultural power in the EU. And France is "Core West", so the French don't have the deaths-head grin of evil as a specter everybody sees in their flag. If the FN becomes strong in France, it LEGITIMIZES such movements all over Europe, in a way that no comparable movement in any other country can. Valls has much to fear.
If a right wing movement arises in Germany, people rightly fear it. It doesn't matter what happens in Britain: they're not like the rest of Europe anyway. Italy and Spain are pretty much irrelevant: nobody takes them seriously. Holland is a serious country, but it's too small to move anything. I notice you no longer pooh-pooh the idea of Le Pen and FN as posing a threat to the French establishment. This was not true a few years ago. So FN has come a long way since then. I think the Hebdo massacre may have given the FN the push it needed. And, as you say, France is not just any EU country but is a linchpin of the EU in culture and politics. It's one thing to have Jobbik in Hungary or even ignore the obvious neo-Nazi influence in the rise of Kiev regime. France is entirely a different matter. France is about one Hebdo massacre away from FN displacing the Socialists. That much is obvious and Valls knows it.
Le Pen Party Seeks to Use France’s Local Vote to Transform Image
. . . ‘Enormous Chasm’
FN Leads
Danger for France
#2. To: TooConservative (#0)
#3. To: TooConservative (#1)
#4. To: Vicomte13, CZ82 (#2)
#5. To: CZ82 (#3)
Valls must think the current government is doing a fantastic job.
#6. To: TooConservative (#5)
It terrifies them that France is about one Hebdo massacre away from President Le Pen.
#7. To: Vicomte13 (#6)
But when France moves, it moves and it pulls everybody else along in a way that no other European country does.
If the FN becomes strong in France, it LEGITIMIZES such movements all over Europe, in a way that no comparable movement in any other country can. Valls has much to fear.
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